Know What's Happening in US Economy
Know What's Happening in US Economy
U.S. policymakers are urging the creation of a strategic reserve for critical minerals used in weapons, electric vehicles and electronics, but details of the plan were not disclosed. The move comes as Middle‑East conflict spikes oil prices and fuels concerns over supply chain resilience for the mining sector.
Erika McEntarfer, former Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, was abruptly dismissed by President Trump on August 1, 2025. She recounts a chaotic termination day and a prior encounter with the Department of Government Efficiency, which proposed replacing statisticians with...
10Y treasury back to where it was at Trumps inauguration. Its increased almost 0.5% since the Iran war started in a sign that the market worries do the long term effects of Trump’s chaotic presidency. That makes mortgages more expensive. 1Y...
The United States’ decision to go to war in Iran is poised to unleash a sharp energy and food‑price shock, compounding existing inflationary pressures. Disruptions to Middle‑East oil flows could lift gasoline and heating costs, while import‑tariff policies already stoke...
The Federal Communications Commission announced a ban on importing foreign‑made consumer wireless routers, citing national‑security concerns. The move threatens to upend the U.S. consumer‑electronics supply chain, prompting industry alarm and debate over the agency’s authority.
Despite investors’ previous hopes for rate cuts, Trump’s war has worsened the Fed outlook — with markets now not expecting further cuts this year (or next). My @morningjoe Chart
In the table below, we see that the drawdown in the S&P 500 has now reached 7.6%, with breadth reaching moderately oversold levels. That drawdown masks a far bigger decline in valuations, with the trailing P/E down 20%. The MSCI EAFE and...
Core CPI excluding shelter has hovered near a 2% annual rate for almost four years, while rent inflation is finally showing signs of moderation. The article argues that continued new home construction is essential to keep rent growth in check....
They keep saying “low unemployment” and “inflation is under control” Meanwhile eggs are still $7, rent just jumped another $300, and my friends are getting ghosted on 200+ job apps. How is this a “strong economy” when my grocery bill feels like...
Benchmark Brent crude rose over 2% to $98.25 a barrel and WTI jumped 3.4% to $91.09 after President Donald Trump delayed planned strikes on Iran. The rally revives concerns that higher energy costs could lift U.S. inflation and pressure the...
The article examines why the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England have taken divergent monetary‑policy paths in response to the Iran‑Israel conflict. While the Fed has kept policy tight, emphasizing inflation control and using liquidity facilities to cushion market...
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that the Fed’s policy committee is increasingly concerned about a stagnating U.S. labor market. The February jobs report showed a loss of 92,000 jobs and revisions that erased gains from December and January, leaving...
Gasoline, Diesel Price Surges May Mirror 2008, 2022 - US average gasoline and diesel prices have approached the $4 and $5 a gallon thresholds, raising the prospect of greater consumer and economic stress -- and peaks akin to 2008 and...
$5+ Diesel Could Unleash Inflationary Mindset the Fed Better Not “Look Through.” Inflation Was already Hot before Iran War. When this inflationary mindset takes off, inflation becomes like a runaway train https://t.co/51qim5kPk6 https://t.co/cBfjwNFSno
A massive fire erupted at Valero Energy's Port Arthur, Texas refinery on Monday, disrupting a key Gulf Coast fuel hub. The incident, linked to a heater‑unit malfunction, has regulators and traders watching for possible impacts on gasoline and jet fuel...
Redbook retail sales ... no sign of consumer spending stress yet +6.7% YoY WE March 21 https://t.co/8GFoXUdydC
So far, entry-level share of employment in legal, financial, & office admin occupations doesn't look functionally different from pre-2023 trends (the population is aging so important to benchmark). A bit above trend for legal, a bit below for finance, in...
Gallup’s October‑November survey reveals U.S. workers’ confidence in finding a good job has fallen to a historic low, with just 28% saying now is a good time to look. The 42‑point plunge marks the sharpest slide in four years and...
The US Money Supply grew 5% over the last year, the biggest YoY increase since June 2022. After a brief hiatus, money printing is back. https://t.co/bnnPEsB9x6
"Input prices for services rose to the highest since May, while those for manufacturers jumped to a seven-month high." https://t.co/NMR6KvBOzE https://t.co/DhoJ1m76qO
The Federal Reserve paused its easing cycle in March, keeping the federal funds rate at 3.50‑3.75% after three consecutive quarter‑point cuts. This “hawkish hold” arrives amid a wartime‑style energy shock that could lift headline inflation by 0.8 percentage points and...
“Today’s 2 yr auction was terrible:” @pboockvar The bid-to-cover ratio was the weakest since May 2024 and dealers got stuck with the largest amount since October 2022. Traders are having a hard time pricing Fed policy as oil prices swing...
Perfect timing for a new book on inflation expectations. https://t.co/CpPzlHzxxf by Olivier Coibion and Yuriy Gorodnichenko https://t.co/Cy5qOH9CED
The National Retail Federation, partnered with Oxford Economics, forecasts U.S. retail sales to grow 4.4% in 2026, reaching about $5.6 trillion. This rate outpaces the ten‑year pre‑pandemic average growth of 3.6%, indicating renewed consumer momentum after the pandemic dip. The outlook,...
A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 55% of Americans report that rising gas prices have negatively impacted their finances. AFFORDABILITY = TRUMP'S ACHILLES HEEL. https://t.co/kJMYHDcmB6
Small caps aren’t ‘early cycle’. $IWM is a stress test. If it can’t lead, the economy isn’t as fine as the index level suggests. https://t.co/Cwur5o8DPZ
Goldman Sachs’ latest research argues that even if private‑credit defaults surge to 10%—a level seen during the 2008‑09 financial crisis—the macroeconomic fallout would be modest, trimming U.S. GDP by only 20‑50 basis points. The sector, with roughly $1.7 trillion in leveraged...
UST and IG supply will be an added headwind for rates this week. The whole curve is trading above the Fed's overnight target range as rate cuts go on pause for now and hedging for a near term rate increase...
and when you find yourself thinking that rates/yields are high, just remember, they're not... they rose for 40 years... they fell for 38 years... they bottomed (big time), almost 6 years ago... https://t.co/6tRJ9pYxtQ
BlackRock chief Larry Fink warned that the accelerating AI boom could exacerbate wealth inequality in the United States, flagging systemic financial risks. He linked the warning to broader concerns about energy use, tokenisation and market stability, underscoring the need for...
Investing Quote of the Day: “I continue to believe that the American people have a love–hate relationship with inflation. They hate inflation but love everything that causes it.” - William E. Simon https://t.co/eO3YmqPZEG
Deutsche Bank forecasts US CPI to hit 3.81% in April and 4.02% in May. @soberlook https://t.co/EGLX7QmA3x https://t.co/R7pCnJYmkg
Toyota announced a $1 billion investment—$800 million for its Georgetown, Kentucky plant and $200 million for Princeton, Indiana—to expand production of the Camry, RAV4 and Grand Highlander. The spending is the first tranche of a broader $10 billion U.S. expansion that could reshape domestic...
BofA: Naming the 2026 dots The distribution of dots shifted higher in March, but the voting members still lean dovish and expect to ease this year. https://t.co/Qklr1A2um1
Tariff taxes are raising costs for businesses and squeezing workers. As Governor, I want policies that strengthen U.S. manufacturing, lower costs, and create stable jobs—not add uncertainty and expenses. https://sentinelcolorado.com/nation-world/nation/trumps-tariffs-are-hurting-american-manufacturers-instead-of-helping-them/
Democratic lawmakers such as Sen. Chris Van Hollen and Sen. Cory Booker are proposing sweeping income‑tax cuts that would eliminate federal taxes for earners up to roughly $46,000 and $75,000 respectively, while pairing those cuts with a surtax on incomes...
U.S. Treasury yields rose for a third consecutive week, with the 30‑year rate up 0.06 percentage points and the 10‑year climbing 0.11 points to 4.39%. The 3‑year Treasury held steady at 3.90%. The upward movement reflects market expectations of sustained...
If Generative AI is empowering people? Why are college educated graduates having a harder time finding employment? Source: a16z via Economic Innovation Group, BLS Data. The unemployment rate for young, college-educated workers has deteriorated more so than the field, and...
Flash PMIs drop Tuesday. First real data read since oil hit $112. In my experience, the PMIs are the most honest early signal of what's actually happening in the economy. If manufacturing and services both print below 50 while inflation expectations stay...
The Federal Reserve left the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5%‑3.75%, extending the pause announced in December 2025. Officials cited elevated uncertainty about the economic outlook and the potential impact of Middle‑East tensions on U.S. growth....
GS: We Now Expect December 2026 Headline PCE Inflation of 3.1%, 1pp Above Our Pre-War Forecast; Both Headline and Core PCE Could Peak Higher in a More Severe Risk Scenario https://t.co/sMwHyf6s7N
GS: Over the Past 40 Years, Even Major Oil Price Shocks Did Not Leave Long-Lasting Effects on Consumer Inflation Expectations https://t.co/8naRIKCG9F
GS: We Estimate That the Boost from Commodity Price Increases to Year-Over-Year Core PCE Inflation Will Peak Around 0.35pp in 2026Q4 in Our Baseline Scenario https://t.co/e4Hp5utn1j
No noticeable impact from the war/higher mortgage rates in the weekly housing data yet: https://t.co/f4wx5tgXQn
Zero net U.S. jobs added since April 2025. Oil above $90. Inflation projections raised to 2.7%. And the Fed's dot plot has the widest internal split in years. Is America already in soft stagflation? https://t.co/Mn06ovDktZ
"Bessent is obsessed with the 10-year. He can let the Brent Oil go up, but not the 10Y-Treasury." @perkinscr97 https://t.co/Mn06ovDktZ
The hope of a short-end to the war on Iran sees the Fed funds futures market swing back to a (small chance) of a cut this year--2 bp--. It was around 7 bp of tightening before the weekend and 61...
"We estimate that a modest increase in private credit default rates to 3-4% (the lower end of the range for leveraged loans in prior credit cycles) would result in a small drag on GDP of about 0.1%." - Goldman
Poll results: 60% of respondents said the US economy will fall into a recession this year... https://t.co/tNssjMxbdK
I used Claude to draw a chart that captures how I see the Fed's asymmetric reaction function towards oil. https://t.co/q9WcR7aCNC
