The Peculiar Recent Behavior of Unemployment
The traditional “plucking model” of unemployment—slow declines in expansions and rapid spikes in recessions—has been broken over the past three years. Since 2023 the U.S. unemployment rate has risen gradually from historically low levels without a concurrent recession, a pattern only previously seen during the COVID‑19 shock of 2020. Economists Christopher Neely and others illustrate this deviation with moving‑average graphs that show modest increases after minima, defying the usual 36‑month post‑minimum surge. The anomaly reflects unprecedented fiscal and monetary support and external supply shocks.
Nonresidential Construction Spending Down Again in March
National nonresidential construction spending slipped 0.2% in March, reaching $1.244 trillion on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis. The decline affected 9 of 16 subcategories, with both public and private sectors posting identical month‑over‑month drops. Private‑sector spending is now more than 2%...
Payroll Gains Mask Underlying Job Losses and Wage Decline
It’s tiring having to listen to talk on bubble vision about how great the U.S. economy is, as has been the case this morning. Good grief. Everyone is fixated on the +115k nonfarm payroll gain in April, with nary a comment anywhere...
Inflation Data This Week Crucial, Says
A clip from this morning's conversation on CNBC with Andrew Ross Sorkin, Becky Quick, and Joe Kernen. Thank you for having me on Squawk Box. https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/05/11/the-inflation-numbers-are-going-to-be-absolutely-critical-this-week-says-mohamed-el-erian.html #economy #markets
Nowcast Points to Steady US Growth in Q2
CapitalSpectator’s median nowcast indicates U.S. GDP will grow at a 2%‑plus rate in the second quarter, marking a steady expansion despite geopolitical headwinds. The forecast aggregates multiple real‑time models, offering an early glimpse into quarterly performance. Analysts interpret the reading...
Powell’s Exit, Dollar Weakness and Inflation Data Shape Fed’s Next Move
Jerome Powell will step down as Federal Reserve chair on May 15 after eight turbulent years, just as the dollar slips more than a quarter‑percent against a basket of currencies. Investors are watching the April CPI report and a surprisingly...
U.S. Dollar Slides Over 0.25% as Safe‑Haven Demand Ebbs Amid Middle East Diplomacy
The U.S. dollar index dropped over 0.25% for the week ended May 8, driven by fading safe‑haven demand as President Trump affirmed a cease‑fire with Iran. The slide came despite a robust jobs report that added 115,000 jobs, well above the...
Market Outlook for the Week of 11th - 15th May
The week of May 11‑15 is data‑heavy, starting with U.S. existing‑home sales and followed by core CPI, PPI and retail sales releases that will test inflation trends. A Senate vote is expected to confirm Kevin Warsh as the next Federal...
Inflation Data, War News Could Dominate Week Ahead
The Schwab Market Update for Monday, May 11, highlighted a quiet start to the week, giving investors time to digest the strong April jobs report that showed 115,000 new jobs and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate. Upcoming key data includes...
Repeat After Me: Higher Minimum Wages Are Good for Business
Economists have long argued that higher minimum wages do not automatically cut jobs, and a new study by Nirupama Rao and Max Risch confirms this for the most vulnerable firms—small independent businesses. Using state‑level wage changes as a natural experiment,...
Elizabeth Warren Says Mother's Day Shopping Under Trump Became 'More Expensive' — Senator Says Prices Of Cupcakes, Flowers And Candy...
Senator Elizabeth Warren posted a list of Mother’s Day items that have become more expensive, attributing the price hikes to the Trump administration’s policies. She cited specific increases such as cupcakes up 5.2%, coffee up 18.7%, and candy up 10.6%,...
The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) Increased in April
The Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index (ETI) rose to 105.77 in April, up from 105.52 in March, signaling a likely rebound in payroll growth. The increase was driven by a drop in consumers reporting jobs as hard to get and...
Young Americans' Job Market Pessimism Stands Out Globally
Gallup’s 2025 World Poll shows only 43% of Americans aged 15‑34 consider it a good time to find a local job, a 21‑point gap with the 55+ cohort. The United States has the widest generational optimism divide among 141 surveyed...
Fed Cuts Don’t Guarantee Bond Rallies, History Shows
For years, a familiar pitch has followed every Fed cut: rates are dropping, so bonds should rally. But history is a little messier than that. Bond outcomes do NOT move in a predictable manner just because the US Fed changes policy. Source:...
Policy Barriers, Not Greedy Capitalists, Shrink Labor Share
I'm in @PostOpinions today discussing new research on a big driver of the declining "labor share": not greedy capitalists, but healthcare, labor, tax, licensing, & other policies that discourage employers from hiring/firing & workers from quitting: https://t.co/bHjB5uw6cI (🎁) https://t.co/RpU4QmN7iE
Study Shows 81% of U.S. Consumers Made Impulse Purchases in 2026 Despite Tight Budgets
A PartnerCentric survey of U.S. adults reveals that 81% have made at least one impulse purchase in 2026, even as 53% report tighter overall budgets. The average shopper made seven impulse buys, spending a median $50 per transaction, signaling a...
CPI Drops Tomorrow, PPI Follows—If You Trust the Numbers
The consumer price index (CPI)* report will be released tomorrow, and the producer price index (PPI) report will be released on Wednesday. *for those that trust the data
April Home Sales Set to Rise, 3‑yr Notes Steady
Economic Calendar for Mon. May 11 10:00am - Existing home sales for April: Expected $4.05M; Prior $3.98M 1:00pm - 3 year Note Auction: Prior 3.897%
Guest Contribution: “Does the Yield Curve Still Predict Recessions? U.S. and OECD Evidence”
Academic Mufan Chen revisits the yield curve’s recession‑predictive power across the United States and seven OECD economies using monthly data from 1995‑2025. Probit models forecast recession risk 12 months ahead, comparing a spread‑only specification, one adding short‑term rates, and another...
Central Banks Face Repeated Inflation Amid Supply Shocks
NEW ODD LOTS Monetary Policy in the Age of Supply Side Shocks @tracyalloway and I talk to the great Megan Greene —- always @economistmeg to us — about how central banks are dealing with one inflationary episode after another https://t.co/y1tj2H3kJm
Mortgage Spread Shrinks by 95 Basis Points Since 2023
The peak monthly mortgage spread was in June 2023 June 2023 👇 Avg. 30-year fixed mortgage rate: 6.71% 10-year Treasury yield: 3.75% Spread: 296 bps April 2026 Avg. 30-year fixed mortgage rate: 6.33% 10-year Treasury yield: 4.32% Spread: 201 bps https://t.co/fPMRjUo1EE
BofA Says Fed Rate Outlook, Not Fundamentals, Caps Dollar Strength
Bank of America strategists say the U.S. dollar’s lackluster performance stems from market pricing of only modest further Fed tightening. The bank forecasts an 80,000‑job April payroll beat, which could shift expectations and lift the greenback.
Dollar Weakening Signals Imminent Rate Cuts and Market Shift
The recent behavior of the US dollar is increasingly consistent with a market anticipating intervention in the rates market ahead. Lower rates and a weaker dollar are no longer optional policies. They are becoming absolutely essential for the system to function under...
Powell’s Legacy as Fed Chair Is Fighting Inflation and Trump. He May Lose the Battle Against Both.
Jerome Powell’s tenure as Federal Reserve chair will be judged by two intertwined battles: taming the post‑pandemic inflation surge and defending the central bank’s independence from political pressure, especially from former President Donald Trump and his allies. After a series...
America’s Economy Grows Four Times Faster Than EU—Here’s What Changed
U.S. GDP grew at an annualized 2% in Q1 2026, four times the eurozone's 0.1% rise. The surge was driven by a 9.3% jump in federal spending and an 8.7% rise in business investment, with AI infrastructure accounting for roughly three‑quarters...
US Factories Shed 2,000 Jobs in April as Manufacturing Hiring Stalls
U.S. factories cut 2,000 jobs in April, deepening a year‑long trend of manufacturing job losses despite a strong overall labor market. Economists warn the sector’s weakness could linger as geopolitical tensions and energy costs weigh on production.
Monday: Fed on Hold as US Jobs Market Stabilises
The episode reviews a stabilising US labour market, solid April non‑farm payrolls and soft wage growth, which keep the Federal Reserve on hold as new chair Kevin Walsh prepares to take over. It also covers geopolitical tension from the closed...
Big Take: Taking Stock of Jerome Powell as Fed Chair (Podcast)
Jerome Powell’s eight‑year term as Federal Reserve chair concludes this week, prompting Bloomberg’s Big Take podcast to assess his legacy. Host David Gura and Fed correspondents Catarina Saraiva and Amara Omeokwe dissect the central bank’s low‑inflation success, the aggressive rate‑hiking...
Fed Balance Sheet Can Only Be Reduced by Eliminating Interest on Reserves
Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh wants a smaller balance sheet, but the net size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet is largely dictated by the target Fed Funds rate. During the pandemic the Fed bought $9 trillion of securities and used...
We Could End Every Blue State’s Budget Deficit With One Policy. Even a Five-Year-Old Could Explain It.
The post argues that public banking—state‑owned banks like North Dakota’s—could eliminate budget deficits for blue states and cities. It cites the Bank of North Dakota’s 2024 performance, returning $335 million and $430 per resident, and scales those per‑capita returns to estimate...
‘Matter Of When’: Core CPI, Real Spending On Borrowed Time
U.S. inflation data this week is set to show headline CPI climbing 0.6% month‑over‑month, the quickest rise since October 2022, while core CPI is expected to increase 0.3%, roughly half the headline pace. The surge is tied to lingering energy‑price...
Mission Impossible
The article challenges Kevin Warsh’s claim that the Federal Reserve can remain independent under a Trump administration, arguing that political pressure makes true autonomy impossible. It highlights core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation, now 0.6 percentage points above its April 2025...
DOJ Settles Antitrust Case Against Agri‑Stats, Raising Food‑Price Fears
The Justice Department announced a settlement of its antitrust lawsuit against Agri‑Stats, a meat‑industry analytics company. Critics argue the deal lets the firm continue sharing sensitive pricing data, potentially driving up chicken, turkey and pork prices for consumers.
Trump Urges China to Buy US Energy as Iran War Spikes Oil Prices and Fed Faces Pressure
President Donald Trump is set to ask Chinese President Xi Jinping to increase purchases of American oil and gas at a May summit, leveraging the Iran‑related Strait of Hormuz shutdown that has pushed U.S. gasoline prices above $4 per gallon....
Warsh Nomination Could Shrink Fed Balance Sheet, Lift Bond Yields
President Donald Trump nominated former Fed governor Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as chair of the Federal Reserve. Warsh’s known preference for a rapid balance‑sheet reduction could force the Fed to sell trillions of Treasury bonds, pushing yields up...
Powell Stays…Should the Dot Plot?
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced he will remain a Fed governor through 2028, while Kevin Warsh is set to assume the chairmanship in June. The April FOMC meeting held rates steady but recorded four dissenters—the most since 1992—signaling resistance...
Seattle Home Prices Tumble 7% as Tech Slowdown and High Rates Hit Market
Seattle’s housing market entered a downturn this spring, with the Northwest Multiple Listing Service reporting a 7% year‑over‑year decline in median single‑family home prices to $960,000. The slide reflects a perfect‑storm of tech layoffs, higher mortgage rates and growing unease...
Economist Tyler Goodspeed Says Recessions Are Random, Raising Stock‑Market Uncertainty
Tyler Goodspeed, ExxonMobil's chief economist, argues in his new book that recessions are random shocks, not cyclical events. His view arrives as the U.S. dollar slides 10% and job growth stalls, sharpening concerns for equity investors.
Looking Back at Jerome Powell's 8-Year Term as Federal Reserve Chair
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell concludes his eight‑year tenure on May 15, 2026, but will stay on the Board as a governor. In an NPR interview, former Philadelphia Fed president Patrick Harker praised Powell’s steady, consensus‑building style and his forceful...
What to Expect From the April CPI Report
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the April CPI on May 12, with headline inflation expected to rise 0.6% month‑over‑month to a 3.7% year‑over‑year pace, driven by surging energy costs linked to the Iran‑Israel‑U.S. conflict. March’s CPI showed a 0.9%...
Retirees Urged to Diversify Income as Inflation Hits 3.3% and Cash Yields Fade
Financial advisers across major outlets are telling retirees to layer Social Security, dividend stocks, annuities and cash alternatives as inflation climbs to 3.3% and money‑market yields slide. The push comes amid $9.1 trillion in global money‑market assets and a forward P/E...
Treasury Lifts I‑Bond Composite Rate to 4.26% as Gas Prices Surge
The Treasury announced a new 4.26% composite rate for Series I savings bonds effective May 1‑Oct 31 2026, up from 4.03% after CPI rose to 3.3% YoY. The hike, spurred by a 21.2% jump in gasoline prices following the Iran war, puts I‑bonds...
Historic Buffett Indicator Spike Predicts S&P Downturn
Hey @grok The "Buffett Indicator" is currently sitting at 229% of GDP—the highest level in history. While everyone is talking about the "New AI Era," Berkshire is sitting on nearly $400 billion in cash. Show me the last 3 times this...
Goldman Predicts Weak PPI, Retail Sales on Inflation‑adjusted Terms
PPI Weds, then comes Retail Sales Thursday Goldman sees tepid numbers, negative on an inflation-adjusted basis https://t.co/LTRiiVzUzb
CPI, GDP and Retail Sales Set to Shape Fed Outlook Ahead of Chair Vote
Analysts will watch Tuesday’s Consumer Price Index, Wednesday’s GDP estimate and Friday’s retail sales report as the Federal Reserve prepares for a Senate vote on a new chair. The data could tip the Fed’s policy stance as Jerome Powell’s term...
Job Growth Hits Breakeven, Yet Unemployment Climbs
GS: Underlying Trend Job Growth Has Now Rebounded to Roughly Our Estimate of the Breakeven Rate, but the Unemployment Rate Rose https://t.co/62hwvAItYn
Energy Pass‑through Keeps Core PCE Near 3%
GS: Energy Passthrough Will Likely Keep Core PCE Inflation Closer to 3% Than 2% Through Year-End https://t.co/P0LWNyKbtE
Hancock Whitney Says Improving Fundamentals Stabilize US Markets Amid Geopolitical Risks
Senior leaders from Hancock Whitney Asset Management hosted a May 5 webcast noting a sharp rebound in equity markets, accelerating AI‑related capital spending and resilient economic activity as key supports for investor confidence. They warned that Middle‑East tensions, higher energy‑price...
U.S. Tax System More Progressive, yet Less Redistributive
It’s surprising to me how few people know that the US has one of the most progressive tax systems in the world. We just tax less overall than many western countries and our spending is less distributive.
Analysts Call Historic Bull Market Underway, Urge Investors Not to Overthink
Investment reporter Tim Shufelt wrote that analysts now view the U.S. equity market as entering a historic bull phase. The Globe and Mail piece advises investors to avoid over‑analysis and remain invested as the rally continues.