
In this episode Senator Cory Booker discusses the "Keep Your Pay Act," which proposes making the first $75,000 of household income tax‑free while funding the loss by tightening loopholes for the ultra‑wealthy, raising the top marginal rate, and increasing the corporate tax rate to around 28‑29%. Booker emphasizes that the current tax system lets many upper‑middle‑class earners pay little tax, especially in high‑cost states, and argues for a more progressive structure that expands the Child Tax Credit and Earned Income Tax Credit. He stresses the need for a fair tax burden that doesn’t let the richest pay less than essential workers, and suggests that closing avoidance strategies could cover the $5.5 trillion ten‑year cost. The conversation also touches on redefining middle‑class standards and the political strategy of framing redistribution as a tax cut.

In this episode, Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. economist Michael Gapin and macro strategist Matthew Hornbach dissect the March FOMC meeting, noting the Fed’s decision to hold rates and retain an easing bias while pushing expected rate cuts from June/September to...

Oil shocks don’t just drive up inflation. They also increase unemployment. In the context of an already weak labor market, GS estimates the Iran oil shock will increase the unemployment rate by 20-40 basis points by the end of the year. Source:...
U.S. real median household income 2017: $71,870 2018: $74,030 2019: $78,250 2020: $81,580 2021: $81,270 2022: $79,500 2023: $82,690 2024: $83,730 Calendar-year 2025 income report (which will contain the official 2025 median household income) should drop around September 2026) Source: U.S. Census...
U.S. initial unemployment claims edged up by 5,000 to 210,000 for the week ending March 21, aligning with economists’ expectations. Continuing claims dropped to 1.819 million, the lowest level since May 2024, indicating a tightening labor market. The Federal Reserve is...

Of note: Up 7 basis points so far today, the yield on the US 10-year government bond is currently trading above 4.40%. #economy #markets #bonds
Goldman Sachs warns that the recent oil price shock could erase about 10,000 new jobs each month in the United States through the end of 2026. The bank projects the unemployment rate climbing to roughly 4.6% by year‑end, driven by...

The U.S. Treasury auctioned $44 billion of 7‑year notes at a 4.255% yield, just 0.3 basis points above the when‑issued rate, a tighter tail than the 2.0 bps and 1.3 bps seen in recent 2‑year and 5‑year sales. Meanwhile, 2‑year yields surged 8.8 bps...
A bipartisan group of senators introduced legislation to eliminate the Social Security retirement earnings test, a rule that currently cuts benefits for workers aged 62‑66. The bill projects adding 166,000‑1.035 million workers, raising personal incomes by $10.5‑$65.7 billion and generating up to...
The United States reported a $190.7 billion current‑account deficit for the fourth quarter, a sharp reduction driven by stronger foreign investment earnings than outflows. The swing eases strain on the dollar, lifts equity sentiment and fuels debate over the durability of...
The Treasury’s most recent five‑year note auction attracted demand that fell short of recent averages, prompting a modest rise in mid‑term yields. The weaker bid‑to‑cover ratio underscores growing caution among investors amid heightened geopolitical risk and inflation concerns.
EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin announced a five‑day emergency waiver permitting the sale of E15 gasoline across the United States. The move targets gasoline that has risen to almost $4 per gallon as the Iran war tightens oil supplies, and it...
Employers across the United States are reporting a slowdown in hiring while layoffs remain modest, creating a "low‑hire, low‑fire" environment. AI‑driven capital spending, exemplified by Meta's $10 billion data‑center project, fuels short‑term job spikes but also fuels fears of longer‑term displacement,...

"In the week ending March 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 210,000, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 205,000."
Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr warned that the escalating Iran war could lift oil and gasoline prices, keeping inflation above the Fed’s 2% goal and delaying any further rate cuts. The comment adds a geopolitical layer to the Fed’s dual‑mandate...

🧵Let me take you back to August 1990. Three weeks ago, Iraq invaded Kuwait, oil prices have surged, and the FOMC is meeting to decide how to respond. The economy looks wobbly. Payrolls just recorded a small decline. Greenspan talks...
Initial unemployment claims held steady at 210.5 k, matching the prior week and hovering near the lowest levels recorded since 1969. Continuing claims fell to 1.819 million, the smallest figure since May 2024, reinforcing the trend of a tight labor market. Bloomberg’s sentiment...
🚨 Morning Market Rundown – March 26, 2026 🚨 Quiet data day but Fed speakers take center stage — markets watching for tone shifts as rate expectations remain in focus 👀 🗓️ Economic Events: 0830 - Initial Jobless Claims: Exp. 210K; Prev. 205K 1600...

At the March 18 FOMC press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell asked whether policymakers should look through the surge in oil prices triggered by the Iran‑Ukraine conflict. Recent data show import prices for consumer goods and industrial supplies climbing 5‑6% year‑over‑year,...
Zillow Group said the 30‑year fixed mortgage rate fell to 6.48% on March 25 and released three scenarios that model how the rate’s duration could affect home‑buyer behavior. The forecast underscores lingering affordability pressure even as rates dip slightly.
Gold prices slipped sharply after U.S. import prices rose 1.3% month‑over‑month, reviving fears of persistent inflation and prompting Federal Reserve officials to signal further rate hikes. The move underscores growing market anxiety over the Fed’s dual mandate.
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, led by Administrator Lee Zeldin, approved a short‑term waiver permitting nationwide sales of E15 gasoline from May 1 to May 20. The move targets near‑$4‑per‑gallon pump prices that have surged amid the Iran war, while sparking debate...

On March 10, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget released “Break Glass,” warning that the U.S. has virtually no fiscal space to absorb another shock. National debt has climbed to roughly 130% of GDP, surpassing the World War II peak...
Redfin reports 629,808 more sellers than buyers in February, the largest gap since 2013 and the strongest buyer’s market on record. The surplus is tempering home‑price gains even as mortgage rates hover above 6%.
President Donald Trump asserted that the average U.S. gasoline price had fallen to $2.31 per gallon, but a Pulse fact‑check shows the actual average was $2.91 at the time of his State of the Union address. The discrepancy underscores how...
Paychex (PAYX) posted $1.8 billion in third‑quarter revenue, up 20% year over year, and returned $463 million to shareholders through stock repurchases. The results underscore accelerating demand for payroll and HR solutions as employers grapple with a cost‑of‑living squeeze.
Goldman Sachs increased its estimate of a U.S. recession this year to a 30% probability, up from 25% a week earlier. The revision reflects tighter labor markets, higher oil prices and diminishing fiscal and monetary headroom. Competing forecasts from peers...
BlackRock’s Rick Rieder said today he still thinks the 🇺🇸 Federal Reserve should cut interest rates - Bloomberg

The US Labor Market Confounds with its Countercurrents. It May Be the New Normal Labor Market. The Fed has also struggled in dealing with this labor market https://t.co/5TJNIc4U16 https://t.co/JLm2HmsMRX
Several leading U.S. restaurant chains announced the closure of dozens of locations in the past 24 hours, pointing to weakened consumer demand after the detection of a highly mutated COVID‑19 variant and soaring operating costs. The moves underscore mounting pressure...

The Weekly Quill — Letting it Bleed Broad Economy Saps Shelter Inflation From @dimartinobooth and #JonathanBasile of QI Research https://t.co/OdXHMzZrUu #federalreserve #powell #dimartinobooth #economy #shelter #inflation https://t.co/wCt4RAq1nh
Confirming recent rumors that the Administration will send the FY2027 budget request to Congress next week, Sen Approps Cmte chair Susan Collins tells Politico it's supposed to arrive at the end of next week. https://t.co/eF2p9GpD3K Vought to testify to...
As long as Hormuz stays closed (which is highly likely near term), 10y UST yields will likely keep rising until either Fed or Treasury are forced to inject USD liquidity (into an oil spike & increasingly fracturing global supply chains)...

Mortgage rate: 6.43%. Mortgage applications: -10.5% in a week. The housing market isn't slow. It's frozen. Nobody's buying. Nobody's selling. The Fed's "one cut" forecast isn't saving anyone at the closing table. $XHB $TLT $SPY https://t.co/4lS8cSAOkb

10-year yield was sub 4% at the start of the war. Now it's over 4.4%. Worst month for $TLT since December 2024 https://t.co/OmX97S6MQ1
Why would we borrow *more* to build a savings fund? Unless we're going to get our fiscal house in order and fund gov't spending differently, I don't understand the rationale here. Further, federal resource revenues are small. The vast majority...

CPI in February: 2.4%. Cleveland Fed CPI forecast for March: 3.02%. PCE tracking toward 3.14%. Inflation isn't cooling. Inflation is re-accelerating. The Fed hiked into this once. They'll do it again. $TLT $SPY $QQQ https://t.co/2TPM7EbXp5

The 2-year Treasury yield (blue) is now > the Federal Funds Effective Rate (red) and CPI (green). If you believe the 2-Year leads the FFER, there's less likelihood of a rate cut anytime soon. https://t.co/73ZCycQNlj

Gas was $2.93/gallon a month ago. It's $3.88 now. That's a 32% jump. The consumer was already stretched. Now they're paying it at the pump. Inflation isn't just a Fed problem. It's a kitchen table problem. $SPY $XLE https://t.co/eyD0h4taV8

"For the US, the OECD expects inflation to jump to 4.2% this year... Its price outlook for this year is 1.2 percentage point higher than in December, also because the labor market remains tight with slowing net migration and tariffs...

Back in the day, on average, you could get 6-6.5% on 5-7yr Treasurys @soberlook https://t.co/EGLX7QmA3x https://t.co/rb6v4PeHGs

Gallup: Only 28% of US employees now say it is a good time to find a quality job. @soberlook https://t.co/EGLX7QmA3x https://t.co/u0BrFnPngN

"Compared with February 2025, the import price index excluding petroleum climbed 2.8% — the most since October 2022 and suggesting the tariff burden is falling primarily on US importers." (The index here does not include tariffs.) https://t.co/BThM0jjJxj https://t.co/QmsfwHVOLd

"For every five dollars the government receives in tax revenue, one dollar is spent on servicing the national debt" https://t.co/GZLf2MrQBV https://t.co/2mBzfPVgm2
The headline is 4.2 % US INFLATION The real story is STAGFLATION Longer war = higher energy prices Higher energy prices = inflation + weaker growth The only uncertainty is how long it lasts. #OECD #Oil #Inflation #Stagflation #EnergyCrisis #Macro #Geopolitics #Growth #oott...

Six months ago: markets pricing 3+ rate cuts. Now: pricing 8bps of TIGHTENING. The Fed didn't pivot. The Fed reversed. 37% chance of ZERO cuts in 2026. This isn't a soft landing. This is a regime change. $SPY $TLT $QQQ https://t.co/UxC4Gdd51F
For those who think a billionaire’s tax doesn’t affect them, the threshold has just been lowered to $ 50mm. At this rate, you’re next?!

The move higher in US yields has been entirely driven by term premia, not inflation expectations. Real yields on 10-year bonds are the highest in almost a year. The implication seems to be that investors are worried about the fiscal...

Fed’s Operating Losses Declined to $19 Billion in 2025, “Unrealized Losses” Declined to $844 Billion. QE hangover a little less atrocious after years of QT and lower interest rates https://t.co/iwXBD2STH5 https://t.co/JmA1t7ABYD

There Goes the Spring Selling Season: Mortgage Rates Jump, Mortgage Applications to Purchase a Home Drop. Mortgage purchase applications are down by 35% from the same period in 2019 in a housing market that remains frozen https://t.co/sR0N0Jznl0 https://t.co/Hkfy4IziDs