Trump's Federal Gas Tax Holiday Is A Con
President Trump urged a temporary suspension of the 18‑cent‑per‑gallon federal gasoline tax, proposing a 122‑day holiday that could be introduced by House Republicans before the midterm elections. The Penn Wharton Budget Model estimates the cut would shave roughly $13 billion from federal revenues, but only about 72% of the reduction would be passed through to gasoline prices, with the remainder boosting oil‑company margins. Critics argue the measure would do little to lower pump prices for drivers and could even raise them. The proposal highlights the tension between short‑term political gains and long‑term fiscal policy.
Warsh Nomination Sparks Fed Politicization, Prompting 10Y Selloff
Macro: Warsh nomination raises Fed politicization. Key: White House pressure, rate path, balance-sheet plans. Risk: policy uncertainty. Trade: shorten duration—sell 10Y Treasuries into June meeting. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Middle East War Could Cost US Households Billions
From the Financial Times article seeking to estimate the economic cost of the Middle East war to US households, businesses, and the federal budget. #economy #markets #middleeastwar @financialtimes
Stocks and Bonds Hold Losses After Inflation Data: Markets Wrap
JPMorgan warned that inflation will remain persistently higher after the latest CPI report highlighted elevated energy costs and supply disruptions linked to the war in Iran. The data pushed U.S. equities lower, eroding gains from all‑time highs, with chipmakers leading...
Daily Bulletin...
President Donald Trump announced support for a temporary suspension of the 18.4‑cent federal gasoline tax as national pump prices rose to $4.52 per gallon amid the Iran‑related energy shock. The administration also dispatched a delegation of corporate executives to Beijing...
It’s Not Just Women Dropping Out of the Workforce. This Group Is, Too
April’s jobs report showed a modest gain of 115,000 jobs and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate, but it also revealed a sharp decline in men’s labor force participation, now at its lowest level in decades with roughly one‑third of men...
Fed's Rate Cuts Aim to Balance Jobs and Inflation
Monetary policy is a blunt, highly imperfect tool. The Federal Reserve, unique in having a dual mandate of promoting price stability & full employment. When both of its mandates are out of whack, it has to assess which is more...
Trump Takes Aim at Beef, Fuel Prices as Inflation Risks Mount
President Donald Trump announced a push to curb inflation‑driven costs by targeting beef and gasoline prices. He plans to sign executive orders that would expand beef imports and suspend the tariff‑rate quota, while also advocating a temporary halt to the...
2026 S&P 500 Forecast Update - May 11, 2026
The research firm released an updated 2026 S&P 500 forecast after the index surged past its April target zone, reaching levels well above the 6,800 mark that framed the original outlook. The rally occurred despite persistent geopolitical tension from the...
Wall Street Giants Push Back Fed Rate-Cut Outlook After Resilient Jobs Data
Wall Street’s biggest banks have pushed back expectations for the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut, citing a surprisingly strong April jobs report. Goldman Sachs now sees the next move no earlier than December 2026, while Bank of America has extended its...
Dow Jones Futures: Techs Fall On $100 Oil, South Korea AI Comments; CPI Inflation Due
Dow Jones futures slipped 0.1% while the S&P 500 fell 0.4% and Nasdaq futures dropped 0.9% as crude oil surged past $100 a barrel. In South Korea, a presidential adviser floated an “AI dividend” from excess artificial‑intelligence profits, sending the memory‑chip‑heavy...
Trump Backs Suspension of US Gasoline Tax
President Donald Trump called for a suspension of the federal gasoline excise tax of 18.4¢ per gallon, arguing it would help curb soaring fuel prices as the Iran‑related oil market turmoil persists. The proposal has bipartisan backing, with Senate bills...
Trump Adviser Projects 6% US GDP Growth, Triple Mainstream Forecasts
White House Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett told Fox News that the United States could post annual GDP growth north of 6% in 2026, driven by a surge in capital spending and AI‑related investment. The projection dwarfs consensus forecasts of...
Bond Traders Brace for Inflation Data as Fed Powell Era Ends, Yields Near 4%
Investors are positioning for a pivotal U.S. inflation report while the Federal Reserve prepares for a leadership change from Jerome Powell to Kevin Warsh. Two‑year Treasury yields rose to about 3.9% as oil prices stay high, and market participants are...
Anticipating Real Hourly Wages for April
Analysts are projecting April’s real hourly wages using two price deflators: the traditional CPI and the AIER Everyday Price Index (EPI). The EPI is derived from a regression linking monthly gas price changes to the index, yielding an adjusted R²...
Trump Wants to Suspend the Federal Gas Tax to Lower Fuel Prices. Can He Do That?
President Donald Trump announced plans to suspend the 18.4‑cent‑per‑gallon federal gas tax, arguing it would help lower the recent surge in gasoline prices that have topped $4.50 per gallon. The proposal is unprecedented because the Constitution grants taxing authority solely...
Kevin Warsh Is Expected to Be Confirmed as Fed Chair This Week. This Is What It Means for Advisors
Former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh is poised to be confirmed this week as the next Federal Reserve Chair, succeeding Jerome Powell in May. His confirmation would clear the way for the rate cuts President Trump has been urging, with advisors...
Allianz: Unemployment Rates Could Be Shaken by Immigration, Iran War, and AI
Allianz warns that despite historically low unemployment in the U.S. and Europe, three forces—tightening immigration policies, the Iran‑related energy‑price shock, and accelerating AI adoption—could destabilize labor markets. Immigration inflows, which accounted for over half of U.S. job creation in 2024,...
Shrinking Workforce Undermines Wage Power Amid Inflation
Wolf Street: "The labor force has been dropping since last fall amid the crackdown on illegal immigration, a tightening up of some work-visa programs, and the wave of boomer retirements. In April, it dropped by another 92,000, to 169.99 million....
Real Gasoline Prices Are (Relatively) Low; Gas Prices Are Rising Sharply
Real gasoline prices are low in inflation‑adjusted terms, yet they have surged sharply, rising about 23% from February to April 2024. This jump exceeds the month‑on‑month growth seen after the 2022 Russian‑invasion price spike and the pre‑Great Recession surge. Retail...
America Is Experiencing a Productivity Miracle
After a decade of stagnant output following the 2007‑09 financial crisis, U.S. productivity has surged, posting an annualized 2.5% growth rate in 2025. The Congressional Budget Office, long‑time pessimist on productivity, upgraded its outlook after the first‑quarter data revealed a...
Kraft Heinz CEO Says Low‑Income Consumers Running Out of Money as Gas Prices Hit $4.56
Kraft Heinz chief executive Steve Cahillane warned that low‑income Americans are literally running out of money at the end of each month, a sentiment echoed across retail and food‑service firms. The warning comes as gasoline prices average $4.56 a gallon,...
Analysts Boost Earnings Forecasts as S&P Posts 27% Q1 Growth
Wall Street analysts lifted 2026 earnings forecasts by a record 14 points after the S&P 500 posted a 27.1% year‑over‑year earnings surge in Q1. The revision, driven by AI‑heavy megacap earnings and unprecedented profit margins, has sparked fresh optimism across...
Manufacturing Industry Lost 2,000 Jobs in April: BLS
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that manufacturing shed 2,000 jobs in April, a 50% year‑over‑year increase but a 113% drop from March’s 15,000‑job gain. The ISM employment index fell to 46.4%, confirming a contraction in hiring. Transportation equipment...
CPI May Hit 10.8% Annualized If Consensus Upper
Tomorrow's CPI, at the upper end of consensus, could see a 10.8% annualized rate (0.9% x 12)
US Treasury Yields Rise as Middle East Talks Stall, Oil Near $100
US Treasury yields jumped on Monday, with the 10‑year note up 3 basis points to 4.394% after President Trump rejected Iran’s counter‑proposal and oil prices surged toward $100 a barrel. The move echoed similar spikes in Indian government bonds, underscoring...
Bond Traders Brace for Inflation Data as Fed's Powell Era Ends
Bond traders are bracing for the upcoming U.S. CPI report as oil‑driven price pressures keep Treasury yields elevated. Two‑year yields climbed to 3.93% after the U.S.–Iran standoff pushed crude higher, and the market is already pricing a more than 40%...
![Hassett: GDP Growth “North of Four, North of Five, North of Even Six [Percent]”](https://hixhlmpcokxhartfkpyi.supabase.co/storage/v1/object/public/images/thumbnails/90da7d420c755d515e52241cf2cc7f53.webp)
Hassett: GDP Growth “North of Four, North of Five, North of Even Six [Percent]”
National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett told "Sunday Morning Futures" that U.S. GDP could accelerate to "north of four, north of five, north of even six percent" as a capital‑spending boom gathers pace, especially if the Iran conflict de‑escalates. He...
Home-Buying Season In America Off To Slow Start
Existing home sales in the U.S. edged up just 0.2% in April, far short of the 2% analysts expected. The National Association of Realtors reported a median price of $417,700, up 0.9% from a year earlier and marking an April...
Grocery Price Pressures: A Major Vibe Source
The shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed diesel prices up about $2 per gallon—a 55% jump—raising transportation costs for the 80% of U.S. food that moves by truck. Simultaneously, the war has disrupted global fertilizer supplies, foreshadowing higher...
Residential Building Worker Wages Remain Soft in Early 2026 Amid Slower Housing Activity
Residential building workers saw nominal hourly earnings rise 2.1% year‑over‑year in March 2026, a sharp slowdown from the 9.4% peak in mid‑2024. After inflation adjustment, real wages actually fell 1.2% YoY, indicating earnings are not keeping pace with price growth....
U.S. Employers Added 115,000 Jobs in April Despite Global Economic Pressure
U.S. employers added 115,000 jobs in April, far exceeding the 65,000 forecast and keeping the unemployment rate steady at 4.3%. Hiring slowed from March’s 185,000 gains but remained robust despite rising fuel prices triggered by the Iran‑related oil shock. Healthcare...
Fed Signals Cuts, Market Expects 2027 Hike—New Chair Faces Mismatch
The blue line is what the Fed is communicating. 2 rate cuts this year. The orange line is what the market is pricing in, a rate HIKE by Summer 2027. Warsh starts as Fed Chairman on Friday. High on his agenda...
Strong GDP, EPS, and Margin Expansion Drive Market Rally
Folks wonder why $SPX up 17% and $QQQ up 27% from 3/30 lows - bc GDP is 3.7% and EPS up 25%. More importantly TR up 11% w margins expanding for EQ weight at 14.3% - old highs were 14.5%....
Iran War Fuels Energy Shock, Raising Fed Rate Uncertainty as Analysts Warn of Delays or Hikes
The Iran war has driven diesel prices up 56%, inflating the U.S. trucking fuel bill from $155 billion to $250 billion and triggering a 14‑point swing in earnings‑estimate revisions. Analysts say the energy shock could force the Federal Reserve to postpone rate...
CPI Test Will Challenge Chip Rally Amid War‑driven Inflation
Is the stock market really immune as the US-Iran war fuels inflation? Incoming US CPI data will test if the narrow chip stocks rally can continue to ignore economic headwinds. #StockMarket #stockmarkets #IranWar #cpi #macro #dollar #trading https://t.co/LImbMLZv4B
Economy and Consumers More Resilient Than Expected
Ed Yardeni tells CNBC the economy and consumer are more resilient than many think. Don't bet against their strength. https://t.co/Dm8ktjg2Tn
Global Debt Surges to $353 Trillion, Debt‑to‑GDP Hits 305% Amid Rising Fiscal Strain
The Institute of International Finance’s latest Global Debt Monitor shows total sovereign and corporate debt climbing to $353 trillion, pushing the debt‑to‑GDP ratio to roughly 305%. The surge, driven largely by the United States and China, raises alarms about fiscal sustainability,...
US Job Growth Shifts to Women, Men Lose Ground
"The American labor market is tilting away from men, with nearly all net job growth over the past year coming from the female-dominated healthcare and social-assistance category. Male-dominated sectors such as manufacturing and transportation and warehousing have been losing jobs,...
April CPI Set for Double Surge: Crude Spike, Core Correction
Tomorrow's April CPI will be a double whammy. Headline will surge because of crude and core will set higher to correct for the "error" from last Oct because of the government shutdown.
Powell’s Final Day Signals Shift to Neutral Policy as New Fed Chair Looms
Jerome Powell will close his tenure as Federal Reserve chair on May 15 with a nine‑word comment that the policy “center is moving toward a more neutral place.” The remark, delivered after an April 29 FOMC meeting that recorded the...
Post-2000 Labor Share Decline Persists Across Sectors
Nearly true of the Nonfinancial Corporate Business sector too, where labor/capital distinction is cleaner. Sectoral & depreciation adjustments usually raise the labor share level, & they often show flat/rising shares over 1973-2000. But post-2000 decline is pretty consistent.
10-Year Note Forms Bullish Cup‑Handle, Breakout Loom
$TNX Daily. Index for Rates on 10-Year Note. Chart patterns can & often do morph. Here, consolidation morphs to bullish cup & handle. Back over at least 4.7% threatens breakout https://t.co/gQXIqXWRgI
California's Job Market Pivots to Healthcare, Lower Wages
"Forget AI. The California job market is powered by healthcare" https://t.co/JtusUDsgVe "States such as Idaho are adding jobs in both high- and low-wage sectors. California is undergoing a great labor market transformation towards lower-paid work." https://t.co/t1r2Ff7Rby
Banks Overstated Tariff Risks; Rollbacks Reveal Bias
Everyone and their mother at investment banks screamed about how tariffs would increase inflation and decrease growth last year, while literally no one seems to care about the impact now that they’re basically being rolled back. I don’t think I’ve...
Private-Sector Spending Reshapes Economy Beyond Past Stimulus
3/ This private-sector spend is tectonic. Instead of financial engineering, we’re seeing a fundamental re-tooling of the economy. The scale of this investment dwarfs traditional "stimulus" and creates a floor for this cycle that didn't exist in '98. https://t.co/MLigMBxeIO
College Tuition Outpaced by Inflation over Last Decade
Here's something most ppl probably don't realize: College tuition has been rising much slower than the overall pace of inflation the past 10 years Seems like good news https://t.co/W4ZPR7WyuH
College Tuition Outpaces Inflation by Threefold
College tuition is up 672% over the last 40 years. Overall inflation? +198%. This isn’t normal. This isn’t sustainable. This isn’t a good thing. https://t.co/PGwigPNTS1
Strong Jobs, Record Market, No Rate Cuts Needed
Jobs came in strong. Market's at all-time highs. No rate cuts in sight. @LizThomasStrat and @GuyAdami break down what the data is actually saying and why the market seems perfectly fine ignoring everything else. YouTube: https://t.co/a6m67f5Xrr Apple: https://t.co/X3Haxb7O2m Spotify: https://t.co/e6NMl4xzXY
Markets Overestimate Rate Cut; Stay Cautious on Pumps
Markets are pricing in Kevin Warsh like he's going to cut rates on day one. He can't. Oil is $105 and CPI is still 3.7%. The committee won't move. Be very careful chasing pumps in this market.