Know What's Happening in US Economy
Know What's Happening in US Economy
U.S. Treasury yields surged, with the 2‑year rate hitting 3.98% and the 10‑year at 4.39%, triggering the sharpest bond‑market sell‑off since the Iran conflict began. Capital rotated into Chinese sovereign and corporate bonds, signaling a new safe‑haven preference amid heightened geopolitical risk. The move reflects broader market anxiety over escalating tensions and tighter monetary expectations.
Andrew Bary described the past week on Wall Street as "ugly," highlighting a sharp decline in major equity indexes and heightened volatility. The S&P 500 slipped more than 3% as investors reacted to the Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone and weaker...
Global oil prices surged past $100 a barrel after the Iran war intensified, prompting UBS analysts to warn of higher US inflation expectations and a possible slowdown in consumer spending. The spike is already reverberating through supply chains, fuel markets...
The week of March 30‑April 1 will be unusually quiet in Washington as Congress and most regulators pause for Easter and Passover, but key events include a moderated discussion with Fed Chair Jay Powell at Harvard and Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman...
In this Inside Economics episode, Mark Zandi and co‑hosts discuss the rising probability of a U.S. recession amid the Iran‑Israel conflict, higher oil prices, and tightening financial conditions. Using a random‑forest model that aggregates dozens of leading indicators—especially labor market...
U.S. consumer confidence slipped 6% in March, reaching its lowest level since December, as gasoline prices rose to an average $3.98 per gallon—a full dollar increase from the prior month. The University of Michigan’s survey shows short‑run economic outlook plunging...
European equity indices drifted lower amid rising inflation expectations and a dimmer growth outlook, echoing broader market anxiety sparked by the West Asia conflict and higher oil prices. Analysts warn the trend could tighten U.S. monetary policy and dent consumer...
Trump bragged that his tariffs are making so much money, he will be able to send stimulus checks to every American. The truth: tariff revenue is a drop in the bucket in reducing the federal deficit. Source: Peterson Institute
The market was pricing a 100% chance of rate cuts in February. That number is now 16%. The Fed put is dead.
The U.S. Treasury sold $44 bn of seven‑year notes on Thursday, posting a high yield of 4.255% and a bid‑to‑cover ratio of 2.43, the lowest in ten auctions. The weak demand follows similarly tepid interest in recent two‑year and five‑year auctions,...
Health care spending in the U.S. rose from about 5% of GDP in 1960 to 17% in 2010, then slowed markedly after 2010. Cutler and Klarnet attribute the slowdown to five factors—cost‑saving technology (≈21%), reduced demand (10‑26%), supply‑side price reductions...
The 10‑Year Treasury yield, which peaked above 5% in late 2023, has rebounded to roughly 4.4% after a dip to 3.8% in August 2024, reflecting lingering inflation and geopolitical risks. The Federal Reserve has held rates steady this year, but...
Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor backed by President Trump, is poised for a contentious nomination as Federal Reserve chair. He advocates rapid rate cuts despite $100‑a‑barrel oil prices and rising inflation forecasts, while also promising to slash the Fed’s...
If CPI were to trend up to 5% over the next year in the unlikely event that rbob futures kept rolling up to the current spot price...what is the 10 year yield and what has to happen to SPX earnings...
The University of Michigan’s final March consumer sentiment index slipped to 53.3, down from the preliminary 55.5 reading. Expectations fell 4.9 points from February, outpacing the 2‑point dip in current conditions caused by higher gasoline prices. Analysts attribute the broader...
The Federal Reserve voted 4‑3 to grant Morgan Stanley an exception allowing its German investment bank to be folded into its U.S. holding company, sidestepping Section 23A limits on foreign affiliate ownership. All three Democratic board members dissented, arguing the move...
A special shoutout to Fed guy @josephwang. During our chat Joseph gave a beautiful breakdown of the lagged effects of monetary policy and how that feeds into the current decision making framework and then 3 hours later when @fejau_inc interviewed...
Walmart announced it will install electronic shelf‑label (ESL) displays in every U.S. store by the end of 2026, eliminating paper price tags. The move is pitched as a labor‑saving, error‑reducing tool, but lawmakers and consumer advocates warn it could enable...
The average 30‑year fixed mortgage jumped to 6.38%—its highest level in over six months—after the 10‑year Treasury yield rose to 4.39%. Higher oil prices and the Iran conflict are pushing bond yields up, tightening borrowing costs for homebuyers.
U.S. consumers will be among the hardest hit by Trump’s tariff policies & the Iran war. The OECD raised its U.S. inflation estimation for this year to 4.2% — an increase of 1.2 percentage points, the 4th largest uptick among all...
US Consumer Sentiment just fell in March to 53.3, one of the lowest readings of all time. The only lower readings? Nov/Dec 2025 after longest gov't shutdown April/May 2025 after 'Liberation Day' tariffs June/July 2022 during inflation spike Americans are struggling to navigate all...
U.S. consumer sentiment fell to a three‑month low in March, with the University of Michigan’s index slipping to 53.3, the weakest reading since December. The decline was driven by a sharp rise in oil prices—up more than 30% after the...
U.S. consumer confidence slipped sharply in March as the Michigan sentiment index was revised down to 53.3, a six‑percent decline from February and the lowest reading recorded in 2026. The drop reflects heightened anxiety over the war‑induced surge in gasoline...
NEW w/ @bencasselman: Throughout a series of economic shocks that pushed up consumer prices in the past five years, Americans maintained faith that the Fed would eventually get inflation under control. The war with Iran presents another shock that is...
.@grok what do you think the answer is for possible rate hikes in 2026, as opposed to the three cuts? 1. Wars 2. Tariffs 3. Stopping illegal, and dirt cheap, immigration
Campaigns in California and New York City are pushing to raise the minimum wage to $30 an hour by 2030 for large employers, with Oakland and Alameda County placing ballot initiatives on the November 2026 ballot. New York City councilmember Sandy Nurse introduced...
Per @grok If 2026 plays out like the 1970s oil shock (Nixon Pres): Stocks: S&P crashes another 40%+ (total ~45-50% drawdown) Oil: $150–$200+/bbl as Hormuz pain drags Rates: Fed funds rips to double digits (teens possible)
"The U.S. goods trade deficit with China shrank 32% to $202 billion last year..., the narrowest since 2005. Yet the overall U.S. goods trade deficit grew 2.1% to a record $1.24 trillion because U.S. importers shifted rapidly to other markets"...
Mortgage rates have jumped from about 5.99% to roughly 6.38% according to Freddie Mac, nudging monthly payments higher and unsettling a market already wary of the spring buying season. The rise, driven by higher 10‑year Treasury yields, oil price volatility and...
Stagflation when the US government has nearly $40 trillion in debt is a depression. Few.
Citi holds firm on S&P 500 target despite Iran tensions and the current market pullback ... the market won't bottom until the sellside slashes YE targets https://t.co/wcQjQH879W
The U.S. dollar index climbed to 99.64, its biggest one‑day gain this week, after the Federal Reserve signaled a “higher‑for‑longer” policy stance and Middle‑East cease‑fire hopes faded. Rising oil prices above $100 a barrel and heightened safe‑haven demand drove the...
Mortgage interest rates are hitting 7 percent and sellers are locked into COVID era mortgages that are in negative real interest rate territory. More charts and graphs featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the comment below. https://t.co/jUHCvyVvDx
I think this data is more revealing of what's happened in the last 20-25 yrs. The NY Fed has tracked the proportion of underemployed recent college grads in good-paying jobs v. low-paying jobs. The proportion in good-paying has dropped sharply....
Economists warn that a new oil‑price shock, sparked by recent Middle‑East conflicts, is reviving stagflation risks in the United States. Phillip Braun of Kellogg notes that the current environment mirrors the 1970s, where supply disruptions and accommodative monetary policy fueled...
Ferguson’s Law, proposed by Sir Niall Ferguson: when a great power spends more on debt service than on defense, it risks losing its status as a great power. The U.S. crossed that line. Net interest at ~3.1% of GDP exceeds defense at ~3.0%. DEBT...
The other chart we all gotta check daily. 👉 U.S. 10 Year Treasury 💥Almost hit 4.5% today😦 https://t.co/DVVhNkPrqm
The U.S. Census Bureau released 2025 metro‑area estimates showing an average 0.6% population gain, driven by rapid growth in Southern cities like Ocala, FL, and Myrtle Beach, SC, while border metros such as Laredo, TX, Yuma, AZ, and El Centro,...
Ed Yardeni warns the Fed could face a policy bind if the Iran war triggers stagflation, caught between its dual mandate. https://t.co/AEdPXCYmJy
US DEBT HAS HIT $39T AND IS CLIMBING. As I wrote in Fortune with Dave Walker, former US Comptroller General, US Treasury data show, black on white, that Uncle Sam is INSOLVENT. https://t.co/qKKcJtEuEk
Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran urged a substantial reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet, proposing a cut of $1‑$2 trillion to restore a more neutral monetary stance. He suggested easing liquidity‑coverage‑ratio rules, destigmatizing repo and discount‑window facilities, and allowing securities to...
Eliminating the wage cap on Social Security taxes & capping benefits severs the link between what you pay in and what you get out, making the payroll tax more distortionary. Make SS more like an individual notional account, not a welfare...
UMich biggest sour swing since April 2025.. 1yr inflation expectations surge to 3.8%... but the long-term inflation outlook was down a tick https://t.co/jKnBGuulSH
The OECD warns that US inflation will surge to 4.2% this year. As I predicted, the inflation genie will not be put back in the bottle and will remain one of Trump’s Achilles’ heels.
Three scenarios for the Iran war and what they mean for Fed policy under new leadership. Plus eight key takeaways from the latest FOMC meeting. 🟢 Open https://t.co/Tx6udRxjvm
This is one of my favourite charts. It shows how the economy emerged from WW2 with a lot more worker power.. and then post-1979 neoliberalism crushed it. sorry folks, we aint gonna get another wage-price spiral https://t.co/KydXL5zIer
Ed Yardeni tells CNBC he expects "none and done" from the Fed this year—no rate hikes ahead. https://t.co/Ml4LwB5aky
Today's policy speeches from Jefferson and Barr continue to push the Fedlock hawkishness measure even higher. https://t.co/PYi7b3edxv
The Chicago Fed Real-Time Unemployment Rate Forecast for March is 4.46%, up slightly from the BLS value for the previous month. https://t.co/fmDwn7KNXM https://t.co/DQnoKpB7NE
Man, it's hard to look at the unemployment data and see a bearish economy. https://t.co/IZjRJlefW9
