Know What's Happening in US Economy
Know What's Happening in US Economy
The article highlights a sharp rise in US Treasury yields after an inflation shock tied to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The 10‑year note closed at 4.44%, and analysts warn that a move toward 5% would confirm fears of a US debt‑trap. Treasury International Capital data reveal Gulf sovereign investors maintaining sizable holdings of US securities, adding a geopolitical dimension to the market. The broader G7 bond market is also trending higher, reflecting heightened inflation expectations.
The White House will release the FY 2026 federal budget on April 3, three months later than the statutory February 2 deadline. The accompanying Economic Report of the President must follow within ten days, setting the fiscal agenda for the...
The article argues that the Federal Reserve’s 24,000‑person workforce is bloated and calls for a 20‑30% staff reduction, especially among economists. It urges a comprehensive audit of the Fed’s self‑funded budget, which has consistently outpaced federal spending. The piece highlights...
Larry Fink: oil could hit $150/bbl — even AFTER a ceasefire — if Iran remains a threat. Brent is already at $112. The tail risk isn't priced. Equities are still trading like this ends cleanly. What does $150 oil do to inflation? To...
Polymarket recession odds jumped from 23% to 35%. That's real money moving in a prediction market. Not a survey. Not a pundit. People betting their own capital. Goldman: 30%. JPMorgan: 35%. Zandi: 49%. The crowd and the institutions are converging on the same...
Markets have shifted from expecting Federal Reserve cuts to pricing in rate hikes for 2026. The CME FedWatch Tool now shows about a 30% chance rates will end the year higher than the current 3.50‑3.75% range, while odds of cuts...
Bond markets have rapidly repriced near-term expectations for U.S. inflation in response to surging commodity prices. The implied 1-year breakeven inflation rate is now above 5% for the first time since 2022. Elevated bond market-implied inflation expectations may present a problem...
The most correlated macro data that explains the 10-2 yield curve is the unemployment rate. Why? The short end drives most of the movements in the curve, and employment heavily influences the short end via Fed policy. This relationship goes...
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The analysis ranks average annual unemployment rates for U.S. presidents from Truman through Biden, noting that Lyndon B. Johnson posted the lowest post‑World War II average at 4.18% while Gerald Ford recorded the highest at 7.76%. It explains that unemployment is...
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The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures price changes at the wholesale level, capturing the cost producers receive for goods and services. It is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and is broken into crude, intermediate, and core...
I expect the April 10th CPI print to spike 70-100 basis points, coming in north of 3%. And then the Fed is going to hike rates 🥸
Good thing the Fed has plenty of room to tighten conditions to address this… Oh wait…. https://t.co/xZ0zMju2vr https://t.co/uMkuuXymWU
Traders are eyeing the upcoming U.S. jobs report amid a fragile labor market that could see consecutive weekly losses. Recent data show hiring slowing while unemployment hovers near historic lows, raising concerns about momentum. However, asset price swings are being...
My take in @asiatimesonline on US debt: “The US gov't is insolvent. That’s not hyperbole — it’s the conclusion drawn directly from the Treasury Department’s own consolidated financial statements for fiscal year 2025, which was released last week to near-total media silence.”...
Sec. Bessent, February 2025: "Judge us by the 10y UST yield." 10y UST yield (blue, RS) v. oil, since Bessent said that 👇 "3 Arrows" about to turn into "0-for-3 Arrows": https://t.co/goqhygmgv6
The U.S. Treasury reported tepid demand for its latest 2‑, 5‑ and 7‑year note auctions, pushing yields higher as the government prepares to roll over roughly $10 trillion of maturing debt. Analysts warn the shortfall could spill over into corporate borrowing...
For the American economy, the key different between the current energy shock and previous ones is the (lack of) impact in US natural gas prices. That's crucial for industrial activity and electricity prices (and thus inflation). Far less reported than...
5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate very low.. Fed has some wiggle room here @wisdomtreefunds https://t.co/7ebc7VndLU
Mortgage payments averaged $2,035 in 2024, the highest in a decade, as higher rates and home prices curb the spring buying surge. National Association of Realtors data shows single women now out‑earn single men among first‑time buyers, but overall affordability...
Goldman now sees US growth at 1.25-1.75%. That's stall speed. Not a soft landing. An economy running on fumes. At 1.25%, one supply shock — one policy mistake — tips it over. The runway is shorter than anyone on CNBC is admitting. $SPY $DIA https://t.co/4Krvew1NCo
Diesel: $3.89 → $5.37/gal. Every truck. Every delivery. Every shelf. The inflation pipeline hasn't fully hit yet. Freight costs are the slow burn that shows up 60-90 days later. You haven't felt this yet. You will. $XLE $IYT https://t.co/OaV580UlNv
Costco's CFO Gary Millerchip told investors that worldwide member traffic grew 3.1% and average transaction value rose 4.2% in the latest quarter. The shift comes as inflation squeezes disposable income, prompting the warehouse club to lean on habit and its...
February payrolls: -92,000. Unemployment: 4.5%. The labor market cracked while everyone watched oil. A cracked labor market + rising rates + slowing growth. That's not a soft landing. That's three warning signs firing at once. $SPY $QQQ https://t.co/LY08qXAJYh
Powell out in May. Warsh in. Market is pricing hikes. New chair may cut. The wildcard nobody's discussing: what if the Fed pivots just as inflation re-accelerates? One transition. Two completely different outcomes. $SPY $TLT https://t.co/zmsbBtchWk
JPMorgan chief strategist Oksana Aronov told CNBC the Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower rates in the second half of 2026, arguing that the bar for any hike remains high. The comment comes as CME FedWatch data shows traders have...
No major inflation scare yet... 1yr inflation swap only about 3%.. not alarming by historical trends Torsten at Apollo https://t.co/YfD4ihEjtb
2Y yield: 3.89%. 5Y yield: crossed 4%. Everyone was positioned for rate cuts. Everyone was wrong. Bloomberg calls it the biggest positioning squeeze in years. The bond market just delivered a reality check. $TLT $IEF https://t.co/jyYH8ebPrR
U.S. lawmakers are advancing a proposal to temporarily suspend the federal gasoline tax in response to soaring fuel costs, with crude oil prices climbing above $90 a barrel after the Iran conflict escalated. The move aims to ease pressure on...
We started 2026 with multiple rate cuts priced in. Now the market is leaning towards a hike. The 10-year is at 4.43% and still accelerating. We cover what that feedback loop means for stocks in the latest episode. $SPY $QQQ $IEF...
Robust consumer spending on manicures, haircuts, and dog daycare is FORCING services inflation to 3.3%/yr. That's stubbornly above the Fed's 2%/yr target. THE US WILL NEVER GET THE INFLATION GENIE BACK IN THE BOTTLE. https://t.co/YhMhZTG7Gl
U.S. employment is projected to rebound in March after February’s sharp 92,000‑job loss, the steepest payroll decline since the pandemic began. Bloomberg’s median survey predicts roughly 60,000 new jobs for the month, while the unemployment rate is expected to hold...
3m10y yield spread 71bps... highest since July 2022... time to step out on the duration-risk curve? $AGG https://t.co/ozSwbxzLA4
Goldman 30%. JPM 35%. Zandi 49%. Recession odds are climbing fast. When does consensus cross 50%? The market is still priced for a soft landing. Economists are no longer calling it one. $SPY $QQQ https://t.co/XqeBtrupla
The week ahead is dominated by central‑bank minutes and key data releases that could reshape monetary policy trajectories. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s minutes reveal a hawkish tone after a 25‑basis‑point hike to 4.10%, while the Eurozone’s CPI flash jumps...
🇺🇸 US inflation keeps rising. As long as the US-Iran conflict persists, inflation will likely stay elevated. https://t.co/LatxByAQYN
Rising inflation and gas prices aren’t the only economic challenges arising from the Iran war. Mortgage rates have risen 4 weeks in a row since Trump started the conflict; the average 30-year rate is now 6.38%. @wsj
Sen. Elizabeth Warren and more than four dozen Democrats have reintroduced the Ultra‑Millionaire Tax Act, imposing a 2% annual levy on net worth above $50 million and an extra 1% surtax on assets over $1 billion. The bill, backed by 10 Senate...
The National Debt Could Hit $50 Trillion Trump says we need short-term pain for long-term gain – but I'm not hearing anything about cutting government spending or raising taxes to cover the $50 billion we keep borrowing. I'm predicting the national...
Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu ”Consumer sentiment fell back 6% this month to its lowest level since December 2025. Declines were seen across age and political party. Consumers with middle and higher incomes and stock wealth, buffeted by both escalating...
Swift Beef workers at JBS USA's Greeley, Colorado plant have extended their walkout into a third week, with 99% of the 3,800‑strong United Food and Commercial Workers Local 7 backing the strike. The labor dispute pits workers demanding higher pay...
What was equally intriguing in Friday’s trading was the unhinging of the short end of the curve from the long end. The 2-yr yield fell by 7.4 bps to 3.91% while that of the benchmark 10-yr rose by 1.6 bps to...
The Iran‑Israel‑U.S. war has pushed Brent crude to about $120 a barrel, shut 20% of global oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz and sparked warnings that soaring energy costs could tip the United States toward recession. The crisis is...
The Dow just entered correction territory. Down 10% from its peak, joining the Nasdaq. The S&P 500 posted its fifth straight losing week — longest since 2022. Oil blew through $100. Futures traders now price a 52% chance the Fed...
Thanks to Trump's war on Iran, Goldman Sachs concludes that the US economy will take A BIG HIT. It's time to start taking the 2nd President of the U.S. Thomas Jefferson's proclamation seriously: "I hold it that a little rebellion now...
Federal Reserve governors Michael Barr, Lisa Cook and Philip Jefferson warned that the Iran‑driven oil price surge could push inflation expectations higher, reinforcing the decision to keep the policy rate steady at 3.50‑3.75%. Their comments signal a more guarded outlook...
10Y yield at 4.44%. Highest since July 2025. Rates rising while growth fears mount. $TLT sellers and $SPY sellers agree on one thing: neither wants to own the future right now. That's a problem. https://t.co/lYjNri1VOz
Fed Fund futures market is loose.. now just a 28% chance of a hike by October https://t.co/xszONB6nqL
What's interesting is that if you align on experience [left], comparing entry level workers with a BA to younger non-BA workers with little/no experience, the BA wage premium was stable for decades then fell precipitously during the pandemic, only rising...
1/5 Good Chris Griswold piece on the implications of the decline last year in manufacturing jobs. I would add one other thing, and that is that there are two completely separate reasons for a decline in manufacturing jobs.
100% of any tax increase should go to pay down the deficit. I would love to hear Republicans twist themselves into knots over this.
