Know What's Happening in US Economy
Know What's Happening in US Economy
Construction wage growth, which had slowed throughout 2023 and most of 2024, re‑accelerated in November 2024. By February 2025, production‑employee earnings were up 5.1% year‑over‑year, the strongest gain in over two years. Specialty‑trade contractors led the surge, with a 6.5% jump for non‑managerial staff, while roofers saw nearly a 10% rise. The increase coincides with tighter labor supply and heightened demand from data‑center projects.
The Boston Federal Reserve’s new paper shows that a one‑percentage‑point rise in credit‑card APR cuts overall card spending by about nine percent, roughly $74 per consumer each month, and up to fifteen percent for balance‑carrying borrowers, especially lower‑income households. Average...
The AAA average fuel price is officially over $4 a gallon for the first time since mid-August 2022. Prices are up over $1 since the war in Iran began. Americans are paying $50 a month more in fuel costs. This is a...
The bigger concern for the US economy isn't gas prices, but diesel prices, as @amoshochstein tells @annmarie just now. They're at the highest since 2022 and bumping up against those highs, at $5.45 a gallon. That's the price that'll pressure...
The Institute for Supply Management's Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) gauges U.S. manufacturing health, with readings above 50 indicating expansion. A backtest linking PMI to the S&P 500 shows a 7.3% annual return when the index stays above 50, slightly underperforming...
Bison Coolers, a Texas‑born brand, is seeing rapid growth as local consumers seek rugged refrigeration for outdoor work and recreation. Recent data shows the Cooler Industry Sentiment Metric (ISM) climbing, while non‑performing loans (NPLs) across the region are also rising,...
Fed Chair Jerome Powell told investors that inflation expectations remain well anchored and that the Fed will “wait and see” on policy, prompting spot gold to rise nearly 1% to $4,560 an ounce and pushing Treasury yields lower. The remarks...
The Conference Board will release its March consumer confidence index tomorrow, with a nowcast estimate of 86.6 points based on a regression model that incorporates University of Michigan sentiment, gasoline price growth, and lagged confidence. Bloomberg’s consensus forecast is slightly...
Today, in a speech at Harvard, Fed Chair Powell claimed that QE (the explosion of the money supply) did not cause inflation, nor did it contribute to the massive increase in US income inequality post-COVID. Those statements are blatantly UNTRUE. THE FED...
🇺🇸 Commodity prices and inflation in the U.S. Historically, there has been a strong positive correlation between them. The Fed has reason to be concerned, experts note. https://t.co/bbqfZAAukN
Long‑term U.S. Treasury yields rose during the week ending March 27, 2026. The 30‑year note gained 0.02 percentage points, while the benchmark 10‑year yield climbed 0.05 points to 4.44 percent. The 3‑year Treasury rate settled at 3.94 percent. The modest increases reflect ongoing market expectations of...
The Dividend Cafe episode dissected the recent market turbulence, highlighting a volatile day where the Dow barely rose while the S&P and Nasdaq fell, and noting the outsized losses in high‑valuation tech and AI stocks like NVIDIA and Palantir. Host...
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told Harvard students that the United States’ $39 trillion national debt is not immediately unsustainable, but the current fiscal trajectory is. He warned that debt is growing faster than the economy, pushing the debt‑to‑GDP ratio toward...
Williams of @NewYorkFed echoes Powell’s view this morning that the Fed can afford to wait and see the economic impact of the Iran war before making any policy moves. He expects the burst of inflation stemming from the war to fade...
Health care hiring remains a primary engine of U.S. job growth, projected to add 693,000 positions by 2025. Without those additions, the broader economy would lose roughly 570,000 jobs, highlighting a stark labor gap. Viventium’s acquisition of Apploi positions the...
We are starting to see what I would characterize as true capitulation. When you see bond yields coming down sharply, even if the oil price is a tad up, while the USD strengthens and equities sell off, it smells like...
Jeffrey Sherman of DoubleLine told CNBC that soaring oil prices are effectively creating a self‑inflicted rate hike, urging the Federal Reserve to look beyond commodity‑driven inflation and focus on labor‑market dynamics. He cautioned against aggressive cuts to the federal‑funds rate,...
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told a Harvard audience that private‑credit markets are experiencing a correction but pose no immediate contagion risk to the broader financial system. He said the Fed is closely monitoring any links to banks and finds...
The BEA updated the US net international investment position last week for Q4 '25 and it stood at $27.5 trillion. That's the amount of assets foreigners own in the US vs what the US owns in the rest of the...
GS: We Now Forecast Only 1.7% Real Income Growth in 2026, With Significant Underperformance Among Lower-Income Households https://t.co/fOdqPIkwQw
Judd Kessler, a Wharton professor and author of *Lucky by Design*, explains how market design governs the allocation of scarce resources—from organ transplants and school seats to concert tickets and restaurant reservations. He illustrates that many everyday “luck” moments are...
Private Credit contagion on top of negative supply shock... Wall St risks directly to affect Main St. Will Bessent do "whatever it takes" to push down long-term MBS rates & govt bond interest expense? QE & rate cuts would be especially inflationary.
Democratic candidate for president, 2028: "I am proposing a 100% wealth tax retroactive to 1964 that kicks in at $5."
A surge in oil prices sparked a risk-off market week, driving the S&P 500 below its anchored VWAP from April 2025 lows. The technical breach highlights heightened selling pressure and a shift in market structure as traders brace for further...
If the 10Y breaks 4.5%… does geopolitics change? Or does policy get forced to change first? https://t.co/yInQSNy76L
"The 10Y and inflation moving up are not good for asset prices." Ram on @bitsandbips https://t.co/6eQLOwwmn9
The U.S. Treasury yield curve, which has been flattening throughout 2026, showed a modest steepening on Friday as the 5‑year note held at 4.07% and the 30‑year bond nudged up to 4.98% by market close. The move came after bullish...
Powell says US debt is growing fast, and that something needs to be done Powell has also been the Fed Chair the last few years and holds some power What has he been doing? https://t.co/c7TWjsGmju
The latest Gallup survey found that job sentiment has PLUNGED. 72% of American employees said it was a BAD TIME to find a quality job. TRUMP’S TARIFFS + TRUMP’S WAR ON IRAN = US JOB MARKET TROUBLES. https://t.co/7LmRVUwORW
The U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis released data showing outdoor recreation produced a record $1.3 trillion in nominal gross output in 2024. While the sector remains a powerhouse, growth slowed amid broader economic headwinds, prompting industry leaders to...
People want ‘clarity’ from the Fed. You’re not getting it. The only clarity is price. Watch cross-asset divergence — it’s the market’s way of calling BS. https://t.co/DOeCFhRtA4
Lower rates today helping yield-sensitive S&P 500 sectors.. but not the small caps... 8/11 SPX sector ETFs up with the index -0.15% https://t.co/1d07AUB0cD
Treasury yields slipped as President Trump hinted at progress in peace talks and investors turned to upcoming labor data. The 10‑year yield fell to about 4.37% and the two‑year to 3.86% early, later adjusting to roughly 4.40% and 3.89% per...
Powell doesn’t seem particularly concerned about inflation. Plenty of “tools” left in the toolbox, apparently :) Two words come to mind: Hard Assets. https://t.co/hITFzs7Q38 https://t.co/POZgWWN4c6
Since 1997, the price of college tuition in the United States has more than tripled. https://t.co/5Atv7qDx6T
U.S. economic data released this week showed fourth‑quarter GDP growth revised down to 0.7% and consumer‑price inflation still running above 3% in January. Combined with soaring oil prices and rising Treasury yields, analysts warn the economy may be slipping into...
POWELL: INFLATION EXPECTATIONS REMAIN WELL ANCHORED - Bloomberg. *Inflation expectations (breakevens), below. "Well anchored?" https://t.co/oWnwOzgMcY
As we approach the 1-year anniversary of "Liberation Day" this week, @sdonnan reports that new foreign investment in the US was actually down significantly last year: https://t.co/s1wGG4RQiu
The Daily Feather revisits Sylvia Plath’s *The Bell Jar* as a lens for today’s consumer gloom. It highlights that the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to 53.3 in March, the lowest reading since December. The slide is tied...
For most of the past three years, falling energy prices had been helping to push the US inflation rate (CPI) lower. But that tailwind will soon become a headwind, with prices of Oil and Gas spiking on a YoY basis. CPI...
Does restocking = industrial recovery if no follow through foreseen? Philly Fed Mfg Delivery Times hit 4-year high of 18.9 in March, FUTURE Delivery Times’ -4.7 was 3-year low; 23.6 point spread a -2.0 z-score reinforcing restocking as did falling Expected...
Congressional leaders and administration officials are ramping up pressure on the Federal Reserve to align monetary policy with political priorities, citing the $20,000+ troop deployment at the southern border and Texas wind‑energy growth. The clash pits central‑bank independence against a...
Fed funds futures mostly back to "normal" as the near term rate hike gets priced out. Live chart vs last Thurs. https://t.co/F0dnQCJ9pu
New @nberpubs: "The Cold War and the U.S. Labor Market" https://t.co/uDe0Mn2o4R "the 1950s-to-1990s decline in defense production explains roughly one-quarter of the decline in manufacturing employment" https://t.co/LjOZhGC7OZ
The S&P 500 has slipped about 7% year‑to‑date as recession probabilities climb, heightening concerns for holders of large‑cap stocks. Analysts point to tighter credit, volatile energy prices and lingering geopolitical stress as key drivers, while investors scramble to hedge exposure.
New York City Comptroller Mark D. Levine defended a roughly $2.3 billion municipal bond issuance, rejecting the narrative that Mayor Zohran Mamdani's budget plan scared off investors. He blamed broader market volatility and rising yields, while rating agencies moved to a...
Former President Donald Trump is demanding a federal funds rate near 1% as the Iran war disrupts oil flows, intensifying a feud with Fed Chair Jerome Powell just before the next U.S. inflation report. The standoff threatens to reshape equity...
The week ahead is data‑heavy, with Eurozone inflation, U.S. payrolls and retail sales, and Canada’s GDP on the calendar. Energy‑price pressure from the Iran conflict could push euro‑area inflation higher, complicating the ECB’s path to price stability. In the United...
German inflation data, driven by higher energy prices, is set to rise sharply in March, prompting the ECB to consider a June rate hike despite likely looking through the spike. Market pricing reflects a 55% probability of an April hike...
