Know What's Happening in US Economy
Know What's Happening in US Economy
Search interest in “stagflation 2026” has surged 650% as the U.S. economy shows signs of stagnation and rising inflation, highlighted by a 92,000‑job loss in February and a 40% recession probability. Analysts point to oil price spikes as the likely catalyst, making energy giant ExxonMobil a natural hedge. Defensive consumer‑staples and healthcare names such as Walmart and Johnson & Johnson are also recommended for their dividend reliability and demand‑in‑any‑economy products. The article argues that these three stocks can deliver solid total returns whether or not a full‑blown stagflation episode materializes.
Mercedes-Benz announced a $4 billion investment to expand its Tuscaloosa, Alabama plant by 2030, part of a $7 billion U.S. spending plan. The expansion, aimed at boosting SUV output, is a direct response to steep Trump‑era auto tariffs and a strategy to...
The Trump administration is poised to issue an order that would levy a 100% tariff on imports of patented medicines and their active pharmaceutical ingredients. A draft of the order suggests the tariffs could be announced as early as Thursday,...
The NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee released updated coincident indicators covering nonfarm payroll, monthly GDP, retail sales, ADP employment, and freight services, all normalized to January 2025. Preliminary benchmark revisions show a modest slowdown in nonfarm payroll growth and a deceleration...
A new study in Nature Human Behaviour finds that states that ended pandemic unemployment insurance (UI) in summer 2021 saw sharp spikes in COVID‑19 outcomes. Weekly case rates rose by 0.18 percentage points, hospitalizations increased by 0.18 per 1,000, and deaths grew...
GasBuddy data show the U.S. national average for gasoline climbed to $4 a gallon, the highest level since August 2022, after President Trump’s Feb. 28 attack on Iran sparked a $1.05 one‑month jump. The surge is tightening household budgets and stoking...
In February 2026 Black unemployment rates were nearly identical—7.0% for men and 7.1% for women—yet both far exceed the national adult average of about 4%. Black women accounted for the larger share of employed Black adults (10.6 million versus 9.4 million men)...
Dallas Fed: Using newly available microdata that measure net unauthorized immigration through December 2025, an estimate of breakeven job growth is lower than previously thought and could be slightly negative. Monthly job change of -3,000 per month would have been...
U.S. retail sales rebounded in February, climbing 0.6% from January after three months of decline. Clothing sales led the recovery, rising 2% month‑over‑month and 6% year‑over‑year. Department stores posted a 3% gain and health‑and‑personal‑care stores rose 2.3% month‑over‑month. The uptick...
The Institute for Supply Management’s March 2026 Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.7, the strongest reading since August 2022 and a modest gain over February. New orders slowed while production stayed robust, and the employment index remained in contraction territory. The...
Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michele Bowman unveiled a proposed capital framework that could free up to $100 billion for small‑business lending by lowering risk‑weightings on bank assets under Basel III. The change targets community and regional banks that hold roughly...
The Federal Reserve has outlined a plan to shrink its balance sheet by roughly $1.7 trillion, effectively halving the liquidity it provides to markets. The proposal assumes a high degree of coordination between the Treasury and the Fed, as well as...
BofA on inflation outlook: "Headline PCE is now expected to surge ... close to 4% this quarter. ... we now project price levels at the end of next year to be 50bp above our prior forecast ... i)higher food inflation...
ADP’s March payroll report shows 62,000 private‑sector jobs added, surpassing the 39,000 forecast. Small firms with fewer than 50 employees drove the surge, creating about 85,000 positions, while large corporations lost 4,000 jobs. Education and healthcare led hiring with 58,000...
U.S. manufacturing showed unexpected strength in March as the ISM Manufacturing index rose to 52.7, the highest level since August 2022 and above consensus forecasts. Production accelerated to 55.1, buoyed by a solid backlog of new orders, while new‑order sentiment...
ADP reported that private‑sector payroll added 62,000 jobs in March, with small businesses (1‑19 employees) accounting for 112,000 of those positions. While firms with 20‑49 and 50‑249 employees shed jobs, larger establishments added modest gains, resulting in a net increase...
U.S. retail sales rose 0.6% in the latest Census Bureau report, indicating solid nominal spending on the eve of the looming Iran conflict. Despite an overall price level that is roughly 30% higher than at the start of the decade,...
United States retail sales in February rose 0.6% month‑over‑month to $738.4 billion, marking a 3.7% increase year‑over‑year. Non‑store retailers, led by e‑commerce, posted a 7.5% annual gain while food services rose 5.2%. The National Retail Federation (NRF) now forecasts 2026 retail...
U.S. retail sales for February were released three weeks late but showed a modest rebound. Nominal sales rose 0.6% month‑over‑month, translating to a 0.3% gain in real terms after accounting for 0.3% inflation. On a year‑over‑year basis, real retail sales...
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem: “I expect the current setting of the policy rate will remain appropriate for some time.” "I could support additional easing if a greater risk of a weakening labor market becomes apparent, provided inflation and inflation...
📊 Pre-Market Brief | Wed, Apr 1 ─────── 📅 MACRO DATA Crude Oil Inventories: Est 1.8 | Prior 6.9 ISM Manufacturing PMI: Est 52.3 | Prior 52.4 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Act 62 | Est 41 | Prior 66 🟢 ─────── 💰 MAG 7 EARNINGS None this week 🏛️...
The ADP National Employment Report showed the U.S. private sector added 62,000 jobs in March, well above the 40,000 consensus estimate. Economists had forecast a modest gain, making the actual figure 22,000 higher than expected. The prior month’s ADP data...
Remember the CPI is a one year fixed basket, which by definition ignores demand destruction in categories that rise in price (gasoline) and demand substitution in areas with falling prices. By definition this leads to an overstated CPI vs actual...
"Our RSM US Financial Conditions Index, which has been decelerating since early February, has turned negative, implying a modest drag on growth." -Joe Brusuelas, RSM
Danielle DiMartino Booth’s Daily Feather post introduces a “fifth element” in the U.S. labor market—labor‑shock capitulation—pointing to a sharp drop in quits, rising job‑insecurity metrics, and a contraction in JOLTS job openings. She argues these signals foretell a structural weakening...
From the @wsj “the safety of Treasury debt is a function of math and confidence…. There is no magic number where U.S. debt becomes unsustainable, but every tick upward leaves the government more exposed to interest-rate fluctuations and less able...
Today's "better-than-expected" retail sales numbers were still a net contraction when adjusted for inflation 🙃 There's been a sneaky pullback in the real consumer spending numbers over the past few months. Q1 off to a sluggish start https://t.co/HaUNobi6Tx
Senate Bill 513, approved by Connecticut's Finance Committee, would extend the federal pass‑through entity tax credit to middle‑income earners making over $50,000, offering roughly $1,100 in annual savings. The program lets participants voluntarily reduce their salary in exchange for a...
US national debt is projected to rise by $2.4 TRILLION annually over the next decade. As a result, total national debt would SURGE to $64 TRILLION. IT’S TIME FOR AN ARTICLE V CONSTITUTIONAL CONVENTION TO LIMIT DEBT. https://t.co/ZvvUKmkbHa
"Manufacturing sector expands for third consecutive month, but war, tariffs cause worry" "In the last two months, the prices index has increased 19.3 percentage points to reach its highest level since... June 2022." https://t.co/eKASacTNPS https://t.co/rXk8eLwXeb
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that a 43‑day federal shutdown from Oct. 1 to Nov. 12, 2025, pulled fourth‑quarter GDP growth to a 1.4% annualized rate, far below the 4.4% pace in Q3. The slowdown reflects a loss of roughly 1.5...
Is the United States insolvent? Lemme youtubesplain: https://t.co/6Re8YEXmWA I'm trying a few new things on my YouTube channel -- trying to make economics more accessible -- and so I'm also really interested in your feedback.
The US Bond Market has now been in a drawdown for 68 months, by far the longest in history. https://t.co/iK6GQkwPgq
The JOLTS data show the job market was looking pretty bad even before Trump started his war https://t.co/LVg2o29UsS It's not likely to be getting better.
New Fed paper showing that underlying inflation dynamics have shifted since COVID. Across countries, a greater share of prices are now rising >3% per year - partly because wage inflation has been persistently higher. https://t.co/1PELesrnc2
This index "has now risen by nearly 20 points in just two months, as higher energy prices have come amid rising costs of other raw materials. On past form, it now looks consistent with headline inflation rising to 4% in...
Higher than expected job growth via the ADP survey, mostly in health and education, and mostly among small businesses. https://t.co/QYIRSn6mQX
Weekly #mortgage refinance demand is down more than 40% in the past month https://t.co/KBjl0aRgH6 @MBAMortgage @mortgagenewsmnd #interestrates #economy
.@johnarnold it is not only tone deaf, it ignores the important academic work on “salient prices.” People attach more meaning to things they buy frequently. Take eggs, less than 1% of the consumer basket, big impact on inflation expectations. Gas...
"We've never seen anything like this…even during the Great Recession the most we had seen was 11 consecutive. It's not NO jobs created in 2025. Jobs were DESTROYED." https://t.co/TEyHYMKiKA #federalreserve #powell #dimartinobooth #economy https://t.co/7AjP28JOhM
The crisis is over. Can we go back to understanding the labor market as generally worse for less educated workers now?
Household net worth as a share of income stands close to all time highs in the US, Japan and Australia --Goldman https://t.co/lb65bEX2Ii
Policy feels abstract right up until it lands in your budget. That’s the point: the stakes are real because White House decisions can show up as pricier gas, a bigger health bill, and higher prices on imported goods. https://t.co/JkEALd3F4O
Why the stock market looms larger over the outlook for U.S. consumer spending than oil prices: Equities held at market value account for more than 25% of household net worth, the most on record in 80 years of data (https://t.co/hFEP95KsDI)...
The Bloomberg US Economic Surprise Index is bumping up against the highest levels since late 2023. Analysts seem to have underestimated how much momentum there was in the economy heading into the Iran war. https://t.co/qXTzGuZtlX
Q4 2025 NMDB data reveals that 78% of mortgaged homes have a rate below 6%, that's down from the peak of 93% in Q2 2022. The share of mortgaged homes with a rate below 6% is the lowest since 2015....
Retail sales +0.6% in February +3.0% dept stores +2.3% health, personal care +2.0% clothes +1.3% sporting, hobby, music, books +1.2% cars, parts +0.9% gas stations +0.7% online +0.5% electronics +0.4% restaurants, bars +0.4% building mats, garden -1.0% grocery -1.0% furniture
Market will be sensitive to labor market data. A smallish ADP beat pressuring Ts a bit
JOLTS gives us bad news on the state of the labor market BEFORE the war https://t.co/vqa0JUhY2f
Trump’s Iran update vs US Retail Sales - that’s the main focus for markets today. Stocks up, dollar down, Gold firm but Oil still above $100. Here’s what to watch 👇 https://t.co/gU5QbERzUH
