US Consumer Confidence Hits Record Low of 48.2 in Early May 2026
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index slipped to a record 48.2 in early May 2026, missing forecasts and deepening concerns over inflation, gasoline prices and the Iran conflict. The drop signals weakening consumer spending, a key driver of U.S. GDP.
30‑Year Treasury Yields Hit 20‑Year High on Inflation
Bloomberg: "Yields on the US Treasury’s longest-dated bond rose to the highest level in almost two decades as investor concerns mount that accelerating inflation will force central bankers to raise interest rates." #economy #markets #bonds
Kansas City Fed's Schmid Calls Inflation Top Risk as PCE Near 4%
Kansas City Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Schmid said inflation is the most pressing risk to the U.S. economy, noting the personal consumption expenditures price index was 3.5% in March and may have neared 4% in April. His remarks, delivered at...
Recent Grads Now Face Higher Unemployment Than Overall Workforce
For 30+ years, recent college grads had lower unemployment than the broader workforce. That reversed in the 2020s. Today, recent grads are at 5.6% vs. all workers at 4.2%. My @morningjoe Chart:
Kevin Warsh’s First Meeting as Fed Chair
Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s nominee, took the helm of the Federal Reserve on May 19, 2026, and convened his first policy meeting amid a volatile macro backdrop. Inflation readings have softened, yet remain above the 2% target, while the labor...
Kevin Warsh Takes Helm of the Fed Amid Inflation Pressures
Kevin Warsh is set to be sworn in as chair of the Federal Reserve, inheriting an economy where inflation sits above the 2% target and the benchmark 10‑year Treasury yield has surged to its highest level in a year. The...
ADP Reports Record 42.25k Weekly Hires
ADP weekly employment - new high at 42.25k/wk for the four weeks ending May 2 https://t.co/NGJuGoUAi8
The Daily Feather — Margin Squeeze Cycle Far From Resolution
The Daily Feather notes that the current margin‑squeeze cycle in U.S. corporate earnings shows no sign of ending. Rising input costs, tighter credit conditions, and persistent inflation are compressing profit margins across sectors. Meanwhile, the 24/7 digital news cycle amplifies...
Markets Price 60% Chance of Fed Rate Hike as Kevin Warsh Takes Helm
Investors have lifted the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike to roughly 60% for the January FOMC meeting, reflecting stubborn inflation and the upcoming transition to new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. The market shift signals heightened uncertainty for monetary...
The Bond Market Has a Warning for the Fed: Get Serious About Inflation and Potential Rate Hikes ASAP
The Treasury market, encompassing roughly $30 trillion of U.S. debt, is seeing yields climb sharply as investors dump bonds worldwide. Fed officials have a narrow window before the June policy meeting to signal a tougher stance on inflation, especially given heightened...
CBS/YouGov Poll Finds 75% Say Incomes Lag Inflation, Two‑Thirds Blame Trump’s Policies
A new CBS News/YouGov poll reveals that 75% of Americans believe their incomes are not keeping pace with inflation, while 66% say President Trump’s economic approach is making conditions worse. The findings highlight growing consumer anxiety and a sharp dip...
Yardeni Says Fed Must Raise Rates in July to Soothe Bond Vigilantes
Ed Yardeni, founder of Yardeni Research, predicts the Federal Reserve will lift its policy rate by a quarter point in July to placate “bond vigilantes” after Treasury yields surged. The forecast comes as new Fed chair Kevin Warsh faces market...
Jeff Gundlach Says Fed Rate Cuts Are ‘Impossible’ Until Inflation Peaks
Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital, told Fox News that a Federal Reserve rate cut is “just not possible” given a two‑year Treasury yield nearly 50 basis points above the Fed funds rate and a 3.8% CPI jump in April....
Iran War Sends Energy Costs Surging, Pushing April Inflation to 3.8%
April’s unadjusted CPI showed inflation at 3.8% year‑over‑year, driven largely by soaring energy costs linked to the ongoing Iran conflict. The energy index alone accounted for more than 40% of the month’s price rise, with motor fuel up 29.1% and...
The Jobs Report Reignites The Bond Market Rebellion
The March 2026 jobs report showed the economy added 178,000 non‑farm payrolls, nearly three times analysts' expectations. That surprise pushed the 10‑year Treasury yield to 4.37%, a rise of more than 50 basis points since early March. Higher yields have...
Higher‑for‑Longer Rates Shatter Goldilocks Bond Outlook
Inflation came in hot, and the bond market officially lost its cool. 📈🔥 Yields spiked, rate cut bets got pushed back, and the "Goldilocks" narrative took a hit. Higher-for-longer is the new normal. BondMarket
Key Takeaways From a Week of Economic News
Feeling overwhelmed by the constant churn of economic news and data? @AliVelshi and I discussed what you really need to know from a pretty full week. Catch up here: https://t.co/OOawRebatN
FX Daily: Bearish Yield Curve Steepening Hits Risk Assets
A bearish steepening of the U.S. yield curve is driving a sell‑off in long‑dated Treasuries, pushing 10‑year yields to their highest level since early 2025. The move follows a surprise 6% YoY rise in April PPI, the strongest inflation reading...
$800 Billion AI Surge Lifts US GDP, Masks Underlying Weaknesses
Spending on AI infrastructure by Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and Oracle is projected to exceed $800 billion in 2024, propelling the first‑quarter GDP surge. At the same time, consumer spending, wages and hiring are weakening, prompting economists to warn that the...
US Treasury Yields Spike to Multi‑Year Highs as US‑Iran Tensions Ignite Bond Sell‑off
Global bond markets plunged on Friday as US‑Iran tensions lifted the 10‑year Treasury yield to 4.595% and the 30‑year to 5.127%, the highest levels since 2007. Investors now price a near‑50% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike later this...
Kevin Warsh Takes Fed Helm, Faces $6.7 Trillion Balance‑Sheet Test
Kevin Warsh was confirmed as the 17th Federal Reserve chair on May 15, inheriting a $6.7 trillion balance‑sheet challenge. Analysts and economist Mark Blyth immediately began assessing how his experience will shape interest‑rate policy and the Fed’s balance‑sheet strategy.
Bond Market Sends Mixed Signals on the Economy
Thread starter: the bond market is telling two stories. Story 1 — 10Y yield at 4.59% says monetary policy is restrictive and term premium is back. Story 2 — HY credit OAS at 276 bps says default risk is muted...
What Does a Smaller Fed Balance Sheet Mean for Inflation & Interest Rates?
The Federal Reserve is considering a $2‑3 trillion reduction in its balance sheet, primarily by off‑loading the $2 trillion of mortgage‑backed securities (MBS) held in the SOMA. Treasury could respond by issuing longer‑duration debt, which would let the Fed keep short‑term rates...
April CPI Accelerates to 3‑Year High, Markets Price In Fed Rate Hike
U.S. consumer inflation surged in April, marking the quickest annual rise in three years. The jump has driven fed‑funds futures to assign a 51% chance of a December rate hike, while equity markets slipped sharply. Analysts warn the data could...
Moody's Mark Zandi Says Job Growth Has Declined Since Trump's Tariffs — and Warns a Recession May Be Next
Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi warns that U.S. job growth has sharply slowed since President Trump’s tariffs took effect on April 2, 2025, while inflation has risen toward 4%. The unemployment rate remains modest at 4.3%, but average monthly hires have turned...
Record Equities Drive Metals, Crypto Amid Inflation
Record Equities Are the Key Difference vs. 2008 The latest consumer price index reading of 3.8% is above the effective federal funds rate, a pattern last seen before the Great Recession. My graphic shows a similar CPI-fed funds trajectory, recovering from...
Amazon's $450 Billion Rural Investment Drive Targets Jobs and Infrastructure
Amazon announced a $450 billion investment plan focused on small towns and rural America, projecting more than 100,000 new jobs and significant upgrades to local energy infrastructure. The initiative builds on a decade of spending that already supports tens of thousands...
Powell Steps Down as Fed Chair, Leaving Interest‑Rate Future in Flux
Jerome Powell has been named interim Federal Reserve chair pending the swearing‑in of Kevin Warsh, ending his eight‑year tenure. His exit comes as inflation remains 27% above pre‑pandemic levels and the Fed’s benchmark rate sits at a two‑decade high, raising...
Warsh Nomination Fuels FX Market Debate Over Potential Rate Cuts
Kevin Warsh's nomination as Federal Reserve chair has ignited a fierce policy debate, with former Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester questioning his credibility amid soaring inflation. Traders are weighing the prospect of early rate cuts, a scenario that could weaken...
Trump Returns From China as U.S. Inflation Hits 3.8% and Economic Pressure Mounts
President Donald Trump flew home from a state visit to China to a U.S. economy where consumer inflation rose to 3.8% in April and could reach 4.2% in May. He touted potential Boeing sales of up to 750 aircraft and...
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon Says U.S. Misses $20,000 per Person in Growth
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned that the United States is forgoing roughly $20,000 per citizen annually because GDP growth has stalled at 2% rather than the 3% potential he says is achievable. In an op‑ed, Dimon blamed policy missteps...
Nowcasts of GDP Diverge
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model now projects a 4% quarterly‑annualized increase for Q2 2026, while the St. Louis Fed’s nowcast sits at just 0.8%. A parallel “core GDP” measure—final sales to private domestic purchasers—shows a 3.1% q/q annualized rise, outpacing the...
US Rates Rise, Greenback Gains as Economy Re‑accelerates
Week Ahead: Rising US Rates Underpin Greenback: The US economy appears to be re-accelerating here in Q2 after nearly grinding to a halt in Q1 (0.5% annualized pace). April US CPI and PPI were more elevated than expected. The anticipated...
Costco Just Got Its Dream Economy
Costco reported a robust April, posting $23.92 billion in net sales, a 13% year‑over‑year increase, while comparable sales rose 7.4% in the latest quarter. The growth comes as broader consumer sentiment weakens and inflation spikes, prompting shoppers to hunt for value....
Oil-Driven CPI Spike Hits 3.8% as Wages Lag, Sparking Class Debate
The U.S. Labor Department reported a 3.8% year‑over‑year rise in consumer prices for April, while wages grew only 3.6%, a gap driven by soaring oil prices. The data has ignited a partisan clash over who bears the cost of the...
U.S. Industrial Production Jumps 0.7% in April, Outpacing Forecasts
The Federal Reserve reported a 0.7% rise in U.S. industrial production for April, far exceeding the 0.3% forecast and reversing a revised 0.3% decline in March. The surprise gain is poised to lift industrial equities and reshape expectations for the...
Massive Treasury Sale Sparks Yield Spike, Fed Lags
US Government Sold $691 Billion of Treasury Securities this Week, 10-Year Yield Spikes to 4.6%, 30-Year Yield to 5.12% as 2nd Wave of Inflation Takes Off. The Fed is “behind the curve,” and the bond market is getting nervous https://t.co/ibFFTlMODv https://t.co/K9WhKU6pvt
Investors Price in 60% Chance of Fed Rate Hike Before Year‑End After Hot Inflation Data
After a string of hotter‑than‑expected inflation readings, investors pushed the odds of a 25‑basis‑point Federal Reserve rate increase to about 60% for the January FOMC meeting, with a December hike still viewed as a coin toss. The shift puts new...
Forecasters See US CPI Jump to 6% in Q2 2026, Raising Policy Stakes
The Survey of Professional Forecasters projected a 6% annual increase in the U.S. consumer price index for the second quarter of 2026, a sharp rise from the 2.7% forecast three months earlier. The upward revision reflects soaring energy prices and...
Mapping the Household-Level Transmission of Monetary Policy
A new VoxEU column surveys over 25,000 U.S. households and runs randomized information experiments to examine how monetary tightening reaches the micro level. The authors find that higher policy rates are perceived to raise inflation, and that rising inflation expectations...
2027 Social Security COLA Forecast Surges Amid Spike in Inflation
The Senior Citizens League now projects a 3.9% Cost‑of‑Living Adjustment for Social Security in 2027, up from the previous 2.8% estimate. That increase would lift the average monthly benefit from $2,081.16 to $2,162.33, an $81.17 gain. The jump reflects persistent...
America’s Productivity Boom Started Before AI, and a Stanford Economist Who Decoded the Great Resignation Says Working From Home Is...
U.S. non‑farm productivity has risen about 2% per year over the last five years, outpacing the 1% pace of the 2010s and catching the Federal Reserve off guard. Stanford economist Nicholas Bloom attributes the surge primarily to pandemic‑era work‑from‑home, which...
Yen Hits Two‑Week Low as Fed‑Fuelled Dollar Gains Accelerate
The Japanese yen slipped to a two‑week trough, trading just below 158.5 per dollar, as traders priced in a 2026 Federal Reserve rate hike after stronger‑than‑expected US inflation and retail sales. Japan’s own producer‑price surge and lingering geopolitical risk added...
Traders Now See Next Fed Interest Rate Move as a Hike Following Inflation Surge
Traders in the fed‑funds futures market now price the Federal Reserve’s next policy move as a rate hike, with a 51% probability for a December increase and even higher odds for early‑2027 hikes. The shift follows a week of inflation...
Inflation Forecast Nearly Doubles to 6%, Raising Pressure on Mortgage Rates
The Survey of Professional Forecasters lifted its second‑quarter 2026 CPI projection to 6%, nearly double the current 3.8% rate, after a prior estimate of 2.7% three months ago. The revision also raised the Fed’s preferred PCE measure to 4.5% headline...
Recent Grads Face 5.6% Unemployment, Above National Average
JUST IN: Unemployment rate for recent college graduates hits 5.6%, higher than the national average
Consumer Sentiment Hits 75-Year Low, Partisanship Skews Surveys
Consumer sentiment is near a 75-year low. But increasingly, these surveys may be measuring partisanship as much as economics. In other words, they may be asking “Do you like the president?” as much as “Do you like the economy?” https://t.co/jsDldxN9Hw
Oil Prices Surge on Hormuz Tensions, Heightening U.S. Inflation Risks
Brent crude climbed to about $105 per barrel after flows through the Strait of Hormuz fell 30%, reviving concerns that higher energy costs will lift U.S. gasoline prices and add pressure to the inflation outlook, complicating the Federal Reserve’s policy...
Bond Yields Spike as Inflation Fears Trigger Global Sell‑off
U.S. Treasury yields rose sharply—two‑year to 4.06% and 10‑year to 4.54%—as oil prices topped $108 a barrel and inflation worries resurfaced. The jump in yields dragged bonds lower across the Americas, Europe and Asia, prompting a broader market sell‑off that...
US Debt Load Could Undercut Warsh‘s Plan to Shrink Fed Balance Sheet
Incoming Fed chair Kevin Warsh wants to shrink the central bank’s balance sheet, but soaring U.S. debt and a jump in long‑term Treasury yields could blunt his agenda. The 2‑year rate has risen above 4% and the 30‑year topped 5.1%,...