Voya's Stein: Rates Are Rising Now so They Can Fall Again Soon
In this episode, host Chuck Jaffe talks with Bryce Doty of SIT Investment Associates and Eric Stein, CIO of Voya Investment Management, about the near‑term trajectory of interest rates. Both guests argue that rates are likely to rise briefly—driven by factors like oil prices and geopolitical tensions—before a demand‑side pullback forces them lower again, with the Fed potentially cutting rates in the fall. They also discuss the implications for bond investors, highlighting opportunities in short‑term Treasury tips, municipal bonds, and high‑yield closed‑end funds that now offer around 10% yields, while noting a bifurcation in private credit risk. Stein adds that the recent surge in mortgage rates and inflation peaks could accelerate this cycle, but the overall outlook remains that the worst of rate hikes is behind us.
As Inflation Rises, Fed's Waller Ready to Drop 'Easing Bias'
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller called for stripping the FOMC’s forward guidance of any "easing bias," arguing the Fed should be equally ready to raise rates as to cut them amid rising inflation. He joined three regional Fed presidents who...
The Worst Consumer Sentiment Report Ever. Again.
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index plunged to 44.8 in May, marking the lowest reading since the series began in 1978 and the steepest month‑to‑month drop on record. The current‑conditions sub‑index hit a new low of 45.8, while the...
Key Dates that Will Define Kevin Warsh's Opening Months as Fed Chair
Kevin Warsh was sworn in as the Federal Reserve’s 17th chair on May 22, 2026, inheriting a benchmark rate of 3.50%‑3.75% and an inflation rate still above the 2% target. His first FOMC meeting on June 16‑17 will be closely...
Traders Bet Fed Under Warsh Will Hike Rates by December
Bond traders now expect the Federal Reserve to raise its benchmark rate by at least 25 basis points by the end of 2026, reflecting confidence that incoming Chair Kevin Warsh will act swiftly against inflation. The shift followed Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s...
5% Yield Spike Could Trim S&P Valuation 15%
Per the Fed Model, when stocks and bonds are correlated and offer similar yields, when bonds reprice, so will equities. That’s the transmission link between rates and equities. If yields rise to 5%, how much would equities need to derate? Per...
Consumer Sentiment Hits Fresh Record Low in May as Iran War Fuels Inflation Worries
Consumer sentiment in the United States plunged to a fresh record low of 44.8 in May, down sharply from a preliminary 48.2 and well below April's 49.8. The drop reflects heightened anxiety over inflation as the U.S.–Iran war fuels oil...
More Waller: Hawkish Comments From the Fed Governor
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller delivered a notably hawkish briefing ahead of the swearing‑in of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. He warned that rising short‑run inflation expectations could force the Fed to act, and stressed that the central bank will...
Fed's Waller Signals Future Rate Hikes If Inflation Persists
Waller: "I can no longer rule out rate hikes further down the road if inflation does not abate soon" He becomes the latest Fed official to endorse removing the easing bias from the statement and making clear that a rate hike...
Fed Chair Warsh Sworn In by Justice Thomas
Kevin Warsh is sworn in as Fed chair by Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas. As a Stanford undergrad, Warsh worked as an intern on Thomas's 1991 confirmation to the court. https://t.co/TXX94HfjZz
Kevin Warsh Is the New Head of the Fed. Here’s Why This Matters for Your Money
Kevin Warsh is set to become the Federal Reserve chair, the first leadership change in eight years, as Jerome Powell steps down from the top spot but stays on the Federal Open Market Committee until 2028. Warsh inherits an economy...
Expect a 50‑100bps Fed Hiking Cycle, Not a Single Hike
Rather than odds of one solo rate hike over the next 9-12 months, a better way of thinking about it is the market’s odds of a 50-100bps hiking cycle. The Fed won’t hike just once.
Greenspan: Tech Productivity Shifted From Rate Pause to Hike
as I said a while back, that's how the Greenspan comparison should have been framed. For Greenspan, tech productivity was initially a reason not to hike (against the hawkishness of his FOMC colleagues), not a reason to cut aggressively... and...
Headline Inflation Surges, but Core Measures Keep the Fed on Hold
Headline inflation has surged as Middle East energy shocks lift food and energy prices, while core inflation measures remain comparatively steady. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at its latest meeting, and futures markets still price in a series...
Waller Signals Hawkish Tone, Warns on Inflation Risks
This is a hawkish speech from Waller. While he doesn’t think hikes are needed in the near-term, he comes across as quite troubled by recent inflation developments. I’ll thread a few highlights: https://t.co/p8k7nMSJ1e
Hawkish Fed Chair May Calm Yields Amid Bond Vigilantes
Bond vigilantes are pushing back hard as markets brace for higher rates longer. The paradox: a hawkish Fed chair could actually help by bringing down long-term Treasury yields. 🟢 Open https://t.co/JYetOpImhO
Housing Starts Plummet as Mortgage Rates Top 6.5% Amid Iran Conflict
Single‑family housing starts fell sharply in April as 30‑year mortgage rates surged to 6.51%, the highest level in months. The jump is linked to a Treasury‑market sell‑off triggered by the expanding Iran conflict, tightening financing conditions for homebuyers.
U.S. Q1 Real GDP Growth Accelerates as Shutdown Impact Fades, High‑Tech Imports Surge
Federal Reserve meeting minutes released May 21 reveal that U.S. real GDP grew faster in the first quarter as the lingering effects of the federal shutdown receded. Trade data show net exports weighed on growth, but a sharp rebound in goods...
U.S. Jobless Claims Slip to 209,000 as Housing Starts Falter in April
Initial jobless claims dropped to 209,000, beating expectations and highlighting a still‑tight labor market. At the same time, housing starts plunged in April, pointing to lingering weakness in the construction sector. The divergence gives the Federal Reserve room to keep...
SOFR Curve Signals Rate Hike, New Fed Chair Tested
With the SOFR curve now pricing in a rate hike instead of the three rate cuts expected earlier this year, it seems like incoming Fed Chair Warsh will be tested by the market, as often happens with leadership changes. Will...
Debt, Inflation, and Populism Renewed Inflation and Is Killing the Bond Market
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates steady as inflation remains above target and the U.S. fiscal deficit swells to an unprecedented 6.2% of GDP through 2026. Treasury yields have surged, with the 30‑year hitting a 19‑year high of...
Kevin Warsh Takes Fed Helm as Powell’s Term Ends, Raising Stakes for U.S. Stocks
Jerome Powell’s second term as Federal Reserve chair concluded on May 15, and President Donald Trump’s nominee Kevin Warsh assumed the role. The transition arrives as the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all posted record highs, while inflation spikes to...
Fed Chair Warsh Hints at Rate Hike as Inflation Rises to 3.8%
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh told Senate reviewers that the central bank may need to raise rates again after inflation edged up to 3.8%. His comments have reignited a debate within the Fed about tightening policy amid persistent price pressures.
Fed Hikes Loom, Bond Market Right, Economy Stumbles
JUST IN: Fed meeting minutes show majority of Fed officials signaling interest rate increases. The bond market is also betting on hikes. And the bond market has been right more times than anyone wants to admit. Home prices are up 60%...
US May Flash Services PMI 50.9 vs 51.1 Expected
The U.S. services sector posted a flash PMI of 50.9 in May, missing the 51.1 consensus and indicating modest contraction. Input costs surged to their steepest pace since late‑2022, driven by war‑related supply constraints and higher energy prices. While manufacturing...
Single-Family Home Construction Slows in April as Builders Grapple With Rising Rates
U.S. single‑family housing starts slipped 9% month‑over‑month in April, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 930,000 and falling 2.4% from a year earlier. By contrast, multifamily starts surged 11.5% year‑over‑year to 514,000 units, lifting total housing starts. Builder confidence...
US Initial Jobless Claims 209kvs 210K Est. Close to Expectations for Weekly Jobs
Initial jobless claims for the week ending May 9 came in at 209,000, marginally under the 210,000 forecast and close to the prior week’s revised 212,000 figure. The 4‑week moving average eased to 202,500, indicating a modest cooling from last...
US Economic Data Signals Slight Slowdown Across Sectors
Economic Calendar for Thurs May 21 8:30am - Building permits (prelim) for April: Expected 1.383M; Prior 1.363M - Initial jobless claims: Expected 210k; Prior 211k - Housing starts for April: Expected 1.419M; Prior 1.521M - Philly Fed manufacturing index for May: Expected 12; Prior 26.7 9:45 - S&P composite...
US Growth Nowcast for Q2 Holds Firm as Inflation Risks Mount
The median nowcast from CapitalSpectator shows U.S. real GDP growing 2.4% in Q2, up from 2.0% in Q1. The revision follows a previous 2.2% estimate and reflects stronger payroll, industrial production and retail sales data. Inflation risks are rising due...
Fed Holds Easing Bias Amid Razor‑Thin Vote, Yields Drop
The Fed kept its easing bias in April, but the vote was razor-thin. Three members formally dissented, and many others wanted it gone. Meanwhile, bond yields are falling. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/AZ6OQxesU6
US Treasury and Markets Project $2 Trillion Deficit in FY 2026
The Treasury Department and bond market participants estimate the federal budget will run a $2 trillion shortfall in fiscal year 2026, up from $1.8 trillion last year. The projection places the deficit as the third‑largest ever, intensifying debate over fiscal discipline and...
AI‑Powered Consumer Spending Fuels 2% Q1 Growth, Says Huntington Economist
Huntington Private Bank chief economist Olu Omodunbi told a Poland, Ohio luncheon that AI‑enabled consumer spending helped push first‑quarter 2026 GDP growth to 2%, with a forecast of about 2.5% for the year. He warned that rising energy prices could...
Inflation Jumps to 3.8% as New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Faces Immediate Test
Consumer prices climbed 3.8% year‑over‑year in April, the strongest pace since May 2023, while wholesale prices surged 6%—the biggest 12‑month rise since December 2022. The data arrive just days after the Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve...
Powell’s Eight-Year Fed Tenure: Inflation Shocks and Independence Fight
From the FT article, “Inside Jay Powell’s turbulent eight years leading the Fed: Central bank chair’s tenure was marked by inflation shocks and his battle to protect the institution’s independence.” #economy #inflation #markets
Inflation Stays Above 2% Target for 62 Months
This is an all-time great line from today's FOMC minutes. Can someone please remind the Fed that inflation has been above their 2% target for...62 straight months.
Kevin Warsh Versus ‘Vast Majority’
The April FOMC minutes, released just before the Nvidia earnings lull, show the Federal Reserve overwhelmingly warning that the war‑driven surge in oil and commodity prices will keep inflation elevated longer than expected. Policymakers dropped the easing‑bias language from the...
Fed Members Lean Toward Tightening as Inflation Stays Above 2%
Fed minutes: “A majority of participants highlighted…that some policy firming would likely become appropriate if inflation were to continue to run persistently above 2%." "Many" indicated a preference for ditching the easing bias.
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, April 28-29, 2026
The Federal Reserve published the minutes of its April 28‑29, 2026 FOMC meeting on May 20, 2026. The release follows the Fed’s standard three‑week lag after a policy decision. The full transcript is accessible in both HTML and PDF formats via the Fed’s website....
Trump Gives Blasé Response to Rate Hike Possibility
President Donald Trump told reporters he will let incoming Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh act independently, even if the new leader leans toward raising rates. Market pricing now shows roughly a 60% probability of at least one rate hike in...
Battles to Shrink the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Begin
Incoming Fed chair Kevin Warsh is pushing to reduce the central bank’s multitrillion‑dollar balance sheet, which swelled to a $9 trillion peak in 2022 before falling to $6.7 trillion after three years of runoff. Warsh argues that a smaller balance sheet would...
A Foretaste of Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve
Kevin Warsh was confirmed by the Senate and sworn in as the new Federal Reserve chair, succeeding Jerome Powell. Warsh argues that inflation is largely a policy choice driven by central‑bank actions and fiscal spending, not external shocks. He criticizes...
The AI Boom Is Making Warsh’s Bond-Market Bind Even Worse
Incoming Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh warned that artificial‑intelligence breakthroughs would boost productivity and act as a disinflationary force, easing the path for rate cuts. However, recent bond‑market indicators, such as rising breakeven inflation rates, suggest the AI boom is...
Warsh's Challenges: Monetary Policy
Kevin Warsh was nominated to lead the Federal Reserve in January, sparking a debate over whether the Fed should accelerate interest‑rate cuts based on expectations that artificial‑intelligence‑driven productivity would lower prices and boost wages. That optimism has been upended by...
Economists Predict Fed Will Keep Rates at 3.5%-3.75% Through Q3 2026
A Reuters survey of 101 economists released this week found 83 expect the Federal Reserve to keep its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.5%‑3.75% through the third quarter of 2026. The consensus marks a sharp reversal from earlier forecasts of at...
US Market Gains as Peace Hopes Ease Rate‑Fears, Oil Slides 2%
Wall Street futures rose on Tuesday as optimism about a swift end to the Middle East conflict lifted investor sentiment and softened worries about higher interest rates. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.11% to 49,417, while the S&P 500...
Hasbro Q1 Profit Surges 101% as Revenue Hits $1B, Cancels D&D Game Deal
Hasbro posted a $198.4 million profit for the first quarter, more than doubling year‑over‑year earnings and lifting revenue 12.7% to $1 billion. At the same time, the company announced the cancellation of a Dungeons & Dragons video‑game partnership with Giant Skull, underscoring...
Fed Must Raise Rates to Calm Bond Market
Bond Bloodbath Worsens on Inflation, Lax Fed, and Flood of New Debt. Mortgage Rates hit 6.75%. Ugly trifecta that spooks the bond market. To soothe bond yields and mortgage rates, the Fed needs to hike, not “look through” inflation https://t.co/72CxReYpFf https://t.co/Xc0zN599gF
Inside Jay Powell’s Turbulent Eight Years Leading the Fed
Jerome Powell took the Federal Reserve helm in February 2018 and spent eight turbulent years steering U.S. monetary policy through a pandemic‑driven recession, soaring inflation, and intense political scrutiny. He weathered repeated public attacks from former President Donald Trump, who...
10-Year Yield Eyes 4.75 After Violent Breakout, Opening Risk Toward 5%
U.S. 10‑year Treasury yields surged past the 4.75% mark, reaching 52‑week highs and the strongest levels since early 2025. The breakout was sparked by geopolitical tension after President Trump’s China trip failed to secure an Iran breakthrough, keeping Brent crude...
Bond Market Tests New Fed Chair with 2007‑High Yields
The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.197% today — the highest since July 2007. Kevin Warsh gets sworn in as Fed Chair on Friday. That's not a coincidence. The bond market is testing him before he gets the keys. 🧵