Know What's Happening in US Economy
Know What's Happening in US Economy
US labor market showed signs of cooling in February as job openings dropped to 6.9 million, the lowest level in months. Private payroll growth slowed to an average of 18,000 jobs per month while layoffs held steady, indicating employers are pausing recruitment rather than cutting staff. The slowdown occurs amid high interest rates, geopolitical tensions that spiked fuel prices, and a Federal Reserve that has kept rates unchanged pending its April meeting. Analysts warn the trend could pressure consumer confidence and prompt state unemployment systems to prepare for potential shocks.
A thread on the February 2026 trade data, with some answers and some questions -- Both nominal imports and nominal exports (ex petrol) are growing again -- with surprising strength in nominal exports and nominal imports back at their end Biden...
Initial unemployment claims slipped to 202,000 for the week ended March 28, down 9,000 from the prior week’s revised figure. The decline underscores continued labor market resilience and adds pressure on the Federal Reserve as it weighs future rate moves.
U.S. lawmakers are debating how to close a projected $25 trillion gap in the Social Security retirement trust fund, which is now expected to run out of reserves by late 2032. Proposals on the table include a $1.5 trillion Treasury‑backed investment fund...
Analysts spotlight the State Street SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) and BlackRock's iShares fixed‑income ETFs as top picks before the Federal Reserve's upcoming rate decision. With KRE offering a 2.4% yield and iShares navigating higher oil prices, the debate...
On Thursday, April 2, Fox Business aired a special episode of Larry Kudlow's program, featuring a roundtable on domestic and global economic policies. The show highlighted a presidential address and an interview with former Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi focusing...
Bond traders are the least bearish in 10 years ahead of tomorrow’s jobs report: BMO survey. Just 24% of respondents saw the next 15 bp move in 10-year yields as being higher, the lowest since Nov. 2010. Most see the...
A new paper from Fed board economists concludes that "breakeven" job growth is near zero, which means negative job growth would be almost as likely as positive job growth in any given month even if the economy is at equilibrium. The...
Experian reports that 38% of U.S. adults now carry a personal loan, up sharply as wages lag behind inflation. The average balance tops $19,000, while delinquency rates hold steady at about 4%, highlighting a growing reliance on debt financing.
"That trust is frayed by the president spinning economic data before it is even released. Claudia Sahm, said that “it’s a degrading of an institution, it’s a degrading of a norm” that runs the risk of “chipping away at the...
The Institute for Supply Management reported a third consecutive month of expansion in its Manufacturing PMI, signaling continued growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector. This upbeat data directly challenges recent headlines that linked rising job losses to the perceived failure...
The average 30‑year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.46% on Thursday, according to Freddie Mac, marking a five‑week streak of increases and the highest level since early September. The climb follows a dip below 6% earlier in the year, which was...
Markets were expecting two to three rate cuts from the Fed this year until Trump’s War in Iran began to wreak financial havoc. With inflation picking up, it looks like we might not get any rate cuts at all this...
The Atlanta Fed and Goldman Sachs nowcast shows private domestic final demand, often called “core GDP,” is decelerating. The latest chart reveals growth falling below the 2023‑24 stochastic trend and the March Survey of Professional Forecasters median. All nowcasts rely...
President Donald Trump told a White House Easter audience that the federal government cannot continue funding Medicare, Medicaid, or daycare because escalating military costs from the Iran war are draining the budget. He suggested that states should assume responsibility for...
The Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.5‑3.75 % after the March 2026 meeting, with only one dissenting vote for a cut. The latest dot‑plot shows 12 of 19 policymakers still expect at least one more reduction this year,...
Four theses on tariff impacts: 1. Evidence clearly shows they've added 0.5-1.0pp to inflation. Evidence consistent with them subtracting from growth. And no evidence they've done anything good for manufacturing or trade deficits (but they have raised revenue).
The unemployment rate is 4.4%. This week’s ADP payroll report was better than expected. The retail sales report was also better than expected and the January report was revised higher. The ISM Manufacturing report was positive for the third month in a row,...
The U.S. Commerce Department said the trade deficit expanded to $57.3 billion in February, up from $54.7 billion in January but below market forecasts. The modest widening eases some pressure on GDP calculations, currency markets and the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
One of my main themes since the rate reset in 2022 is that the Fed model is “back.” The Fed model, popularized by Alan Greenspan during the 1980’s, holds that when the risk-free rate (Treasuries) is competitive with risky assets...
Revelio Labs released an alternative hiring impulse metric for the United States, estimating that the economy added fewer than 20,000 jobs on a net basis. The figure was published ahead of the official Good Friday Bureau of Labor Statistics employment...
Another big development last week was that the 10-year Treasury yield rose sharply to 4.48%. The chart below shows that the yield has continued to coil in a large triangle, and could be on the verge of a break-out. Meanwhile,...
Dallas Fed President Logan said he remains unconvinced that inflation is easing sufficiently, even before the Ukraine war escalated. He highlighted the difficulty of forecasting amid geopolitical uncertainty, but noted that a swift war resolution could limit economic damage. Logan stressed...
In a speech this morning, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan delivers a clear defense of the ample-reserves framework at a moment when others (Warsh/Bessent) have implied a course correction would be desirable. In the speech and a far more detailed...
The U.S. trade deficit widened 4.9% in February, reaching $57.3 billion as a 4.3% jump in imports offset a record‑high $314.8 billion export total. Imports were buoyed by AI‑related capital equipment, while goods exports surged 5.9% to an all‑time high. The goods...
The median forecast for March 2026 non‑farm payrolls predicts a gain of 60,000 jobs, a sharp rebound after February’s 92,000‑job decline. This estimate far exceeds the 12‑month average increase of 13,000, indicating a potential turnaround in hiring momentum. Unemployment is expected...
The International Monetary Fund’s latest Article IV review finds U.S. inflation on track to meet the Federal Reserve’s 2 % target in early 2027, but signals minimal room for rate cuts this year. IMF staff project only a single policy rate reduction...
U.S. employers announced 60,620 job cuts in March, a 25% increase from February but still 78% lower than March 2025. Technology, transportation and healthcare accounted for the highest cuts, with technology up 40% YoY and transportation soaring 703% YoY. Artificial...
U.S. MANUFACTURERS reported a moderate expansion of business activity for the third month running in March. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index edged up to 52.7 (50th percentile for all months since 2000). The index has been above the...
GS: 10 charts we are watching: Goldilocks faces a Balanced Bear The energy shock results in a pickup in inflation as well as weaker growth and less policy easing After the bullish start to the year, our Risk Appetite Indicator declined but...
Kinda mixed feelings about using AI. For writing it’s definitely bad. But I think it’s totally fine to use an LLM to gauge which of two (anonymized) FOMC speeches is more hawkish (macro context dependent) and repeat that thousands of...
We still have NFPs tomorrow - which can generate volatility through thinned liquidity - but by and large the market is done for the week. What to expect next week? Wild Market Volatility Likely to Continue Through Holiday Conditions https://t.co/cnoL8Uiqb5
When is the last time they released NFP on a day the market was closed?
GS: We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 70k in March, slightly above consensus of +65k. The big data indicators we track were mixed in March. We estimate that the unemployment rate was unchanged on a rounded basis at 4.4% in March...
Trump says he built the "strongest economy in history". TRUMP = HASN’T LOOKED AT THE DATA. USA REAL GDP GROWTH 2024 = 2.8%/yr USA REAL GDP GROWTH 2025 = 2.1%/yr. https://t.co/ZEBSTs32ra
Public debt isn’t like household debt. A family can hit a hard stop. A country can refinance, tax, grow, and revisit its budget year after year. The issue is sustainability, not a single scary number. https://t.co/T4l1gg78Xk
“We are going to see a very, very strong economy this year. We could see between 4 and 5% real growth." - Scott Bessent, Jan 2026 https://t.co/JlonK53rXZ
True, but also a bit deceptive. The spike in q1 overstated the "true" current account deficit, and the unwinding of gold and pharma front running depressed the h2 deficit. The underlying current account deficit is still...
AI-enabling goods were big drivers of US imports in 2025. More charts and graphs featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the comment below. https://t.co/hsx98RbAJP
The Massive Unsustainable Trade Deficit in Goods Has Improved Sharply. Tariffs Are Doing their Job. The 6-month average trade deficit in goods fell to $80 billion, the least-bad since 2020 https://t.co/xhTU8KRbPU https://t.co/pDi3O4iYwF
If you're trying to figure out what metrics actually matter for Jobs Day tomorrow, check out this valuable piece from @PrestonMui and @_vikasbp: How The Fed Is Tracking Jobs Day https://t.co/zWQYamKDaT https://t.co/NeRpIroGPi
The latest Ipsos Consumer Tracker finds that 61% of Americans expect a recession within the next 12 months. While recession storm clouds are gathering, a slowdown is BAKED IN THE CAKE. https://t.co/uijU8le8FD
"If you look at Truflation, you are seeing core Truflation running below headline, it is telling you that consumers are already cutting back on discretionary purchase." https://t.co/AZWaQ8HgmF #federalreserve #powell #dimartinobooth #economy https://t.co/3Qh0AXdqub
It prevents fed funds cuts, props up Wall Street, props up inflation, all because the Repo Gang of Four won't deal with uneven distribution of reserves.
US Trade Deficit Widens in February As Imports Offset Record Exports. Capital goods. AI. Will the Iran war affect March? https://t.co/DKavl92Fdl
The energy shock is now a financial shock—and it’s hitting American homebuyers directly War → higher Treasury yields → higher mortgage rates → worse housing affordability
"Those jobs and factories haven’t materialized, at least on the grand scale the president and his top advisers have promised." "Even if... there are some sectors that have positive employment effects, the effect for most people is going to be higher...
Since Liberation Day, a year ago today: * US foreign direct investment is lower * US factories employ 89,000 fewer people * US goods trade deficit is UP 2% https://t.co/LJ7h0yLJXG https://t.co/vWvQ4Xgy8E
Economic Calendar for Thurs. April 2 8:30am - Initial Jobless Claims: Expected 212k; Prior 210k - Continuous jobless claims: Expected 1.84M; Prior 1.819M 11:00 - Fed’s Logan speaks 12:45pm - Fed’s Bowman speaks
US Stocks Only Fans don't get it, but The Bond Market does It's called Global #Quad3 Stagflation with a breakout in Bond Yields https://t.co/LfjSg2suV3
