Alternative Business Cycle Indicators: Coincident Index
The Philadelphia Fed’s coincident index, combined with a Bloomberg consensus on May ADP private payroll, points to continued economic expansion through April 2026. The index aligns with other gauges such as manufacturing output and real retail sales, suggesting a broad-based upswing. Bloomberg’s forecast anticipates private non‑farm payroll growth comparable to April’s reported figures. Heavy‑truck sales, another coincident indicator, show mixed signals due to a tariff increase imposed in November 2025.
Rock-Bottom Immigration Rates Leave Mark on U.S. Economy
President Trump’s immigration crackdown has triggered one of the steepest slowdowns in U.S. population growth in decades, pulling labor‑force expansion to near‑zero levels. Federal Reserve analysis shows the breakeven job‑gain rate has collapsed, while state‑level data reveal that regions with...
Fed's Bowman Willing to Look Through War-Driven Inflation Bump
Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman told an Iceland conference that the recent inflation spike, driven by higher energy prices and one‑off tariff effects from the Iran war, should be looked through. She emphasized using trimmed‑mean PCE rather than headline...
Fed’s Bowman Says Too Soon to Judge Inflation Impact of Iran War
Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman warned that it is too early to assess the inflationary fallout from the U.S. war in Iran, urging policymakers to look through temporary energy‑price spikes. She backed the Fed’s decision to keep rate‑cut language...
Fed's Paulson Says Healthy for Markets to Shift to Tighter Monetary Policy Outlook
Fed Governor Lisa Paulson said the central bank’s policy is now mildly restrictive and well‑positioned to bring inflation back toward target. She noted that inflation remains too high despite a slowdown in economic activity and that the labor market remains...
Fed’s Schmid Says Officials Must Signal Commitment to Inflation
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeff Schmid warned that inflation has stayed above the Fed’s 2 percent target for more than five years and urged officials to visibly commit to price stability. He highlighted that the renewed US‑Israeli conflict...
US April Wholesale Inventories +0.5% vs +0.8% Expected
U.S. wholesale inventories rose 0.5% in April, falling short of the 0.8% increase economists expected and down from a 1.3% gain in March. The data comes from the Census Bureau’s Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey, which samples about 4,200 merchant‑wholesaler firms....
US April Advanced Goods Trade Balance -$82.40 Billion vs -$86.50 Billion Expected
The United States posted an advanced goods trade deficit of $82.4 billion in April, beating analysts’ expectation of $86.5 billion and improving from the prior estimate of $87.45 billion. Goods exports rose to $219.7 billion, up $8.5 billion from March, while imports increased to $302.1 billion,...
Inflation Hits 3.8% as GDP Slows and CNN Poll Shows Voters Turning on Trump over Rising Costs
U.S. first‑quarter 2026 GDP was revised down to a 1.6% annualized pace, below the previously reported 2.0% and expectations. Inflation accelerated, with the personal consumption expenditures index rising 3.8% year‑over‑year, the highest level since May 2023. Consumer spending growth slowed...
One in Three American Men No Longer Work as Jobs Shift Deepens
One in three American men are now outside the labor force, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics reporting a 66 % participation rate for men aged 20 and over in April 2026—down from 73 % in 2006 and near post‑2008 levels. The...
U.S. Jobless Claims Edge Up to 215,000, Highlighting Labor Market Softness
The Labor Department reported Thursday that initial unemployment claims rose to 215,000, up from 210,000 the week before. While layoffs remain low, the uptick underscores a slowing hiring pace and adds nuance to the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
April PCE Miss Fuels Mixed US Stock Outlook as Treasury Yields Edge Higher
Core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose 0.2% month‑over‑month and 3.3% year‑over‑year in April, while headline PCE climbed 0.4% MoM and 3.8% YoY, slightly below forecasts. The data nudged the S&P 500 and Nasdaq flat, lifted 10‑year Treasury yields to 4.48%,...
Stagflation Warning Signs Are Flashing, But the AI Boom Is Letting Investors Ignore Them (For Now)
U.S. equity indices hit record highs on Thursday even as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, rose to a three‑year peak of 3.8% year‑over‑year. At the same time, Q1 GDP was revised down to...
Eight Measures of the US Price Level
The latest chart of eight U.S. price indices shows headline CPI posting the smallest increase since January 2025, while the CPI for wage earners and the CPI excluding shelter have risen more rapidly. All series are plotted in logarithmic terms, using...
Inflation Rises, Yet Spending, Hiring, Production Surge
Inflation is climbing to levels not seen since early 2023, yet consumers keep spending, businesses keep hiring, and manufacturers are surging to record production. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/dd8EF8klzi
Federal Reserve Inflation Split Starts Shaking Confidence Across U.S. Economy
The Dallas Federal Reserve’s trimmed‑mean inflation gauge fell to 2.3% year‑over‑year in April, a modest dip from 2.4% in March, but economists warn it may now understate true price pressure. At the same time, core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation...
Personal Income, Corporate Profits
Recent BEA data show that both pretax and after‑tax personal income have declined, while consumption growth has decelerated. In the first quarter, after‑tax corporate profits, including inventory valuation adjustments and capital consumption allowances, fell 0.4% month‑over‑month, missing the 5.7% consensus...
Americans Are Spending Faster than Their Income Is Growing
U.S. consumer spending rose 0.5% in April while disposable personal income slipped 0.1%, driving the personal saving rate down to a six‑month low of 2.6%. The gap is fueled by higher energy costs linked to the Iran war, with gasoline...
Business Cycle Indicators: Personal Income Trending Down
The latest data show personal income excluding transfers fell 0.4% month‑over‑month and was revised lower, shifting the apparent income peak to September 2025. Both nonfarm payrolls and civilian employment are slowing, with ADP confirming the trend, while population‑adjusted series add...
US Inflation Rose at Fastest Pace in Three Years in April as Iran War Hikes up Prices
U.S. inflation accelerated to its fastest pace in three years in April, driven by a sharp rise in energy costs linked to the Iran‑Israel conflict. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index jumped 3.8% year‑on‑year, while core PCE rose 3.3%,...
New-Home Sales Slow in April After a Strong March
New‑home sales in April 2026 fell 6.2% month‑over‑month and 11.3% year‑over‑year, marking the weakest month since January. Despite the volume decline, the median price rose 8% to $422,500, the highest since May 2025, driven by strong West‑region activity. Builder inventory...
Sticky Inflation Forces Fed Hike, Eroding Savings to 2008
Fed’s inflation target came in hot & sticky in April, fueling Fed’s pivot to a rate hike instead of a cut. High inflation & loss of transfers for Medicaid and SNAP (food stamps) sapped income growth & drained saving to...
PCE Inflation Near Double Fed Target, Services Prices Stubborn
PCE Inflation Surges Further from Fed’s Target, now Nearly Double Fed’s Target, 5+ Years above Target. Trend reversal a year ago. Services inflation stuck at high rate for a year. Now prices of food, energy, computers & software (AI boom),...
On Second Thought…
The Bureau of Economic Analysis released its second estimate for Q1 2026, trimming headline GDP growth to 1.6% annualized—0.4 percentage points below the advance reading. Personal consumption expenditures slowed to a 1.4% annualized gain, the weakest pace since Q1 2025,...
First-Quarter GDP Chopped to 1.6%. Here’s Why — and What It Tells Us About the Economy.
U.S. first‑quarter GDP was revised to a 1.6% annualized increase, down from the initially reported 2%. The downgrade stems from weaker consumer spending and lower inventory growth, while durable‑goods purchases rose modestly and services spending slipped. Business investment surged, with...
Iran War Lifts a Second Inflation Reading to Highest Level Since 2023
U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation jumped 3.8% year‑over‑year in April, the fastest rise since May 2023, while core inflation climbed to 3.3%, a multi‑year high. The surge is linked to supply disruptions from the Iran war, which has tightened global...
US Key Inflation Gauge Worsens, Eroding Americans’ Income and Spending Power
U.S. consumer price inflation accelerated to 3.8% year‑over‑year in April, the strongest pace since May 2023, driven largely by gasoline prices above $8 per gallon and higher food costs. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, rose to 3.3%...
War-Torn: US Saving Rate Plunges As Annual Inflation Soars
U.S. inflation data for April showed mixed signals: core PCE rose 0.239% month‑over‑month, the slowest pace since November, while the year‑over‑year rate accelerated to 3.3%, the fastest since late 2023. Headline PCE increased 0.4% MoM and 3.8% YoY, the strongest...
Core Inflation Matches Expectations at 3.3% in April
Core inflation hit an annual rate of 3.3% in April, as expected, Fed’s preferred gauge shows: CNBC
Gold Falls Below $4,400 on Inflation Data and Fed Rate‑Hike Fears
Spot gold dropped 1.4% to $4,395.53 per ounce and August futures fell 1.3% to $4,424.75 as fresh US inflation data and expectations of higher Federal Reserve rates weighed on the market. The slide underscores how monetary‑policy signals and geopolitical tension...
Model Predicts Prolonged Inflation, No Fed Rate Cuts
Our Fed-Front Running (Fractal) Model continues to imply higher for longer on Inflation and no Rate Cuts https://t.co/th05xxbaQy
Fed’s Kashkari Tells CNBC that Inflation Fight Takes Priority as Labor Market Is 'in Decent Shape'
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that fighting inflation remains the Fed’s top priority, even as the labor market stays in decent shape. He warned that persistent price pressures, driven by energy and fertilizer costs, could...
Fed's Kashkari Says Inflation Much Too High and Remains His Top Priority
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that inflation remains his top priority, noting that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He warned that prolonged price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations, forcing the Fed...
Fed's Jefferson Says Monetary Policy Is Well Positioned to Respond, Not Prejudge June Meet
Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson told a Tokyo conference that the current federal funds rate range of 3.50%‑3.75% leaves policy well positioned to respond to incoming data. He stopped short of signaling any direction for the June 16‑17 FOMC...
Losing Patience: Markets Reprice Inflation Risk
U.S. Treasury yields have climbed to their highest levels since the war began as inflation data accelerate and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Import prices surged at the fastest monthly pace in four years, adding upward pressure on costs....
Fed's Cook 'Prepared to Raise Rates' If Inflation Persists
Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook warned that the Fed is prepared to raise interest rates if inflation does not ease, citing five years of above‑target price growth and the inflationary impact of the Iran‑related oil price surge. Her remarks underscore...
Cook Sees Disinflation Returning, Warns of Rate Hikes if Delayed
Cook: “In my baseline forecast, disinflation should resume in upcoming months without having to raise rates….” “…I am prepared to raise rates, if the expected disinflation does not appear in a timely manner.”
One Key Signal Says Rate Hikes Could Be Coming
Bond markets are signaling a shift away from expected rate cuts toward possible further tightening. The spread between 5‑year and 30‑year Treasury yields compressed to 81 basis points, the narrowest in about a year, as short‑end yields climb. Traders now...
Core PCE Set to Hit 3.3%
Based on the CPI and PPI, forecasters anticipate the core PCE rose 0.28% in April. This would lift the 12-month rate to 3.3%, the highest since November 2023 (when the Fed still had a tightening bias). The 6-month annualized rate...
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Signals Reform Push as Markets Rally on S&P Forecast
Kevin Warsh took over as Federal Reserve chair last week and, backed by President Trump, signaled a reform‑focused agenda. The move coincides with Goldman Sachs raising its S&P 500 year‑end forecast to 8,000 on robust earnings, underscoring a potential shift...
Measurement of “Computer Software and Accessories” Inflation
A sharp rise in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index’s “Computer Software and Accessories” category has drawn attention to structural market shifts and statistical quirks. Researchers estimate that a mismatch between the CPI and PCE baskets accounts for about...
US Consumer Confidence Ebbs in May as Inflation Worries Mount
U.S. consumer confidence slipped to 93.1 in May, according to the Conference Board, after a 0.7‑point decline from the revised April reading of 93.8. The dip reflects heightened inflation concerns linked to the ongoing war with Iran, which offset a...
ARIMA on Grocery Prices
Grocery‑at‑home CPI is climbing faster than the headline CPI, and a log‑scale chart shows the trajectory steepening from January to May 2026. The USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) ARIMA model forecasts a 3.2% year‑over‑year rise in grocery prices for 2026,...
Asian Stocks Split as US Strikes on Iran Spark Market Volatility
U.S. missile strikes on Iranian launch sites sent Asian equity markets into a tug‑of‑war, with some indices rallying while others fell. The New Zealand dollar weakened sharply, underscoring how U.S. foreign‑policy actions are reverberating through the region’s financial landscape.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Economic Growth Increased in April
The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.14 in April, up from a March reading of -0.15, signaling a shift from contraction to modest expansion. The index aggregates 85 monthly economic indicators across production, employment, consumption, and investment,...
US Consumer Confidence for May 93.1 vs 92 Estimate
The Conference Board reported that U.S. consumer confidence slipped to 93.1 in May, down 0.7 points from the revised April reading of 93.8. The Present Situation Index fell 3.2 points to 121.2, reflecting weaker views on current business and labor...
Key Events This Holiday-Shortened Week: PCE, Durables, Consumer Confidence And Fed Speakers
This week’s economic calendar is dominated by U.S. inflation data, with the April personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index slated for Thursday and a modest rise in durable‑goods orders expected. Fed officials, including Vice Chair Jefferson and Dallas President Logan,...
Gold Slides to $4,516/Oz After U.S. Strikes on Iran Raise Geopolitical Risk Premium
Spot gold fell 1.2% to $4,516.60 an ounce on Tuesday as U.S. airstrikes on Iranian missile launch sites and mine‑laying boats dented hopes of a near‑term peace deal. The move highlights how fresh Middle‑East conflict can quickly reshape safe‑haven demand...
U.S. Launches New Strikes on Iran Targeting Missile Sites and Mine‑Laying Boats
On May 26, 2026 the United States carried out air strikes against Iranian missile launch facilities in the south and vessels attempting to lay naval mines. The attacks, ordered by the White House, were framed as defensive moves to protect...
Traders Overprice Rate Hikes, 2‑Year Yield Gap Widens
Traders aren't listening as much to Fed speak as forward guidance and instead are pricing in rate hikes with more certainty than what's coming from US central bankers. Last week, US 2-year yields climbed to 50bp above the Fed funds...