Know What's Happening in US Economy
Know What's Happening in US Economy
Senate Bill 513, approved by Connecticut's Finance Committee, would extend the federal pass‑through entity tax credit to middle‑income earners making over $50,000, offering roughly $1,100 in annual savings. The program lets participants voluntarily reduce their salary in exchange for a larger refundable tax credit, boosting take‑home pay without costing employers or the state. The bipartisan effort, championed by Senators Paul Honig and John Fonfara, mirrors a similar New York initiative and now moves to the full Senate before the May 6 deadline.
From the @wsj “the safety of Treasury debt is a function of math and confidence…. There is no magic number where U.S. debt becomes unsustainable, but every tick upward leaves the government more exposed to interest-rate fluctuations and less able...
Trump’s Iran update vs US Retail Sales - that’s the main focus for markets today. Stocks up, dollar down, Gold firm but Oil still above $100. Here’s what to watch 👇 https://t.co/gU5QbERzUH
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that a 43‑day federal shutdown from Oct. 1 to Nov. 12, 2025, pulled fourth‑quarter GDP growth to a 1.4% annualized rate, far below the 4.4% pace in Q3. The slowdown reflects a loss of roughly 1.5...
The Cleveland Federal Reserve nowcast shows headline CPI rising 0.84% month‑over‑month in March, driven largely by sharp increases in gasoline and diesel prices. Weekly gasoline prices are up 26.2% year‑over‑year, while diesel has surged 50.4% over the same period. By...
The one year anniversary of Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs is Thursday (April 2). This pieces asks: What happened to US imports in 2025, in light of all of those Trump tariffs? If you 💕💕💕 charts, you will want to read 👇
U.S. job openings fell to 6.9 million in February, down from 7.2 million in January, while quits dropped to the lowest level since August 2020. Gross hires slipped to 4.85 million, the fewest since April 2020, pushing the hiring rate to 3.1 percent, also a pandemic‑era...
The Iran‑Russia war has reignited a supply‑side shock, pushing 10‑year Treasury yields up about 35 basis points to roughly 4.30%, the steepest monthly decline since President Trump returned to the White House. The closure of the Hormuz Strait, which carries...
Job openings slipped to 6.9 million in February, down from 7.2 million in January, while total hires fell to 4.8 million, pushing the hiring rate to a low 3.1 %—the weakest since April 2020. Quits edged lower to 3.1 million and layoffs held steady at 1.7 million,...
The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index rose to 91.8 in March, up from a revised 91.0 in February. The modest gain suggests households remain cautiously optimistic despite lingering economic headwinds. Analysts will watch the next reading for signs...
U.S. average gasoline prices rose above $4 a gallon for the first time in nearly four years, prompting S&P 500 futures to jump 1.1% and Nasdaq futures 1%. Traders are weighing the inflationary impact against hopes of de‑escalation in the...
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index edged up to 91.8 in March, despite the Iran‑related war driving gas prices to $4 per gallon and inflating short‑term inflation expectations to a six‑month high. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan survey showed a...
Wild story: President appoints someone to the central bank recommended by his own finance minister. The appointee resists the president's demands to approve bigger rate cuts, and now the president says he "stupidly" followed the minister's advice, leading to "the...
Mortgage rates are lower today thanks to Jerome Powell. Why? Because he put fears of Fed rate hikes to bed during a Q&A session with Harvard students yesterday. Despite surging oil prices, he said “We feel like our policy’s in a...
US home prices continued to fall in real terms, with the Case‑Shiller 20‑City Index posting only a 1.2% year‑over‑year gain in January, the slowest since July 2023. The broader National Index rose just 0.9% YoY, lagging the 2.4% headline CPI...
Republican House Budget Committee Chairman Jodey Arrington is pushing a plan to fund up to $200 billion for the Iran war and stricter immigration enforcement by reviving cost‑sharing health‑care reductions. The Congressional Budget Office estimates these cuts could save $30 billion but...
With the Federal Reserve’s 175‑basis‑point rate cuts since 2024 and 10‑year Treasury yields hovering around 4.4%, analysts highlight four bond ETFs—Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND), Vanguard Short‑Term Corporate (VCSH), iShares TIPS (TIP) and Vanguard Intermediate‑Term Treasury (VGIT)—as leading options for...
Heightened risk from Iran‑related fighting sent investors into safe‑haven Treasuries, pulling the 2‑year yield down 5 basis points to 3.87% and the 10‑year to 4.36%. The rally unfolded even as Brent crude rose about 2% to over $100 per barrel,...
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly nonfarm payroll reports have become increasingly unreliable, with initial figures routinely overstating job growth and subsequent revisions pulling numbers down sharply. Over the past year, the amplitude of these revisions has surged, prompting concerns...
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that construction job openings fell to 202,000 in February, down from 230,000 in January and 255,000 a year earlier. Overall U.S. job openings slipped to 6.88 million, a decline from January’s 7.24 million. The...
The U.S. hiring rate has slipped to a 15‑year low, the weakest since 2009. For the eighth straight month, unemployed workers outnumbered available job openings, indicating a shift from the previously tight labor market. Monthly hires fell to roughly 150,000,...
"The hires rate decreased over the month [of February 2026] to 3.1 percent. This was the lowest hires rate since April 2020 when it was also 3.1 percent." Employers only brought on as many workers (as a % of payrolls)...
Fed Chair Jerome Powell publicly expressed his lack of confidence in the economic models used to forecast markets, noting that no system has reliably predicted the economy. He highlighted that while large language models (LLMs) have advanced dramatically, they remain...
U.S. consumer confidence rose in March, with the Conference Board index climbing to 102 and the University of Michigan sentiment index edging up to 71.5. Despite the improvement, the surveys reveal a lingering pessimism about future economic conditions, as expectations...
The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index fell 4.9 points to 52.8 in March, marking the third consecutive month of expansion despite missing the 54.8 forecast. A reading above 50 signals growth, but the decline suggests weakening momentum. Historically, 52.8 is lower...
Yikes. The U.S. hiring rate fell to 3.1% in February, the lowest since April 2020. This is a hiring recession. And Americans are feeling it. There were notable hiring pullbacks in February in hospitality and construction. Bottom line: The job market...
The Labor Department’s JOLTS report shows February job openings at 6.882 million, missing the 6.918 million forecast. Hires slipped to 4.849 million, while quits fell to 2.974 million, indicating waning worker confidence. Layoffs and discharges rose modestly to 1.721 million. These figures suggest a cooling...
The March 2026 jobs report is expected to show a further slowdown, with total job gains likely falling below the already‑weak three‑month average of 8,000. Health care and social assistance should remain the only sector posting net hires, while restaurants...
@jimcramer @carlquintanilla Jim I respectfully disagree with your upbeat assessment (as it relates to equities) of the new strategy to cede control of the Strait. The knock on consequences of this new strategy are broad, inflationary and economic dulling. The policy...
Today’s JOLTS data highlighted the extent of the labor market paralysis that was already deepening before the Iran war. Hiring made a new 10+ year low in February excluding pandemic distortions, via @bespokeinvest https://t.co/xYctvNLqUZ
The 10‑year U.S. Treasury yield jumped to 4.4% after a volatile climb, prompting investors to overreact to the move. Analysts say the rise reflects lingering inflation worries and a market that has abandoned hopes for rapid Fed rate cuts, while...
BofA Nielsen: Supermarket inflation fell to 2.3% YoY in March +47.9% on the 7yr stack https://t.co/Jlz9FUMWAG
GS: Unemployment Among Young Tech Workers Has Fallen Back in Line With Unemployment for All Tech Workers https://t.co/oAVQfwTaF4
Real economists repeatedly cautioned that, bc of tariffs & DOGE (& later the shutdown), topline GDP figures could be distorted due to swings in trade flows & govt activity. So, they recommended excluding those things, and it shows a modestly...
"In this blog post, we ask how much of the evolution in average U.S. labor productivity...can be attributed to changes in the composition of the workforce, with a particular focus on immigration. The short answer: very little." https://t.co/89nFQJzJXe https://t.co/UNZGnsrUqE
Does jobs week matter for mortgage rates as the Iran war intensifies? https://t.co/eNWu4sPUwS via @YouTube
The labor market can be "roughly steady" with a lotta hiring matched by a lotta firing, or few fires matched by few hires. The U.S. is moving into a low hire-low fire equilibrium, which really hurts folks—the young, those (re-)entering...
$39T national debt. 10Y yield: 4.44%. Annual interest: ~$1.1T. That exceeds the entire defense budget. The US is paying more to service its past than to defend its future. There is no clean exit from a fiscal spiral at this scale. --- https://t.co/maHJkCjSBw
My friend Thematic Markets gets this wrong -- US industrial production (using the series that leaves out chips, which is still benefitting from Biden era policies) is flat not way up 1.x https://t.co/pYA4LZEt8F
January: everyone was long rate cuts. Now: hike odds >50%. That's not a rotation. That's the largest positioning reversal in years — and the unwind isn't finished. $SPY -3.4%. $QQQ -4.2%. The price tells you where we are in that unwind. --- https://t.co/mDbRSIwQT2
Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid: Inflation expectations have been low because the central bank has previously acted to make sure inflation will stay low. "It is now our job to follow through with policy actions that validate those expectations."
Recently, the January surge in US manufacturing job openings was cited as evidence of US tariff success. Today's JOLTS report shows a significant retreat in February. Alas, the perils of cherrypicking. https://t.co/iGuSwqceO5
"Unsurprisingly given the Iran war oil shock, consumers’ average and median 12-month inflation expectations surged in March to levels last seen in August 2025, when US consumers awaited more tariff announcements from the US federal government." - The Conference Board...
If you're asking whether 30% recession risk is bad, compare it with the right baseline. Normal is about 14%. So yes, we're still below 50%—but we're also roughly double normal. Seems troubling. https://t.co/2dO5Qjmi3q
With this latest JOLTS release, we're at a US labor market churn rate that's among the lowest since data began, rivaling the depths of the Great Recession. https://t.co/F9CRiQJ4c9
The no-hire, no-fire labor market. The private-sector hiring rate fell to 3.3% in February, the lowest since Feb. 2010, when the unemployment rate stood at 9.7%. The layoff rate, however, continues to hold steady at low levels. https://t.co/oFDKXdikju
Job openings for January were revised up, but the three-month moving average continues to gently grind lower through February There were 0.9 vacancies for every worker counted as unemployed in February, near the low for the current business cycle. https://t.co/5ET6aMzmsE
Not saying it’s going to be enjoyable or inherently desirable, but the US economy can handle substantially higher oil prices without falling into recession
The Fed would like this lower to get wage growth back down to 3% or lower to target 2% inflation.
President Donald Trump’s new tax deduction for overtime looks like a hit this filing season, and that’s shaping up to be a big challenge for Democrats. via @Brian_Faler https://t.co/fpMNZCrW6U
