Gold Slides Below $4,600 as Oil Prices Spur Inflation Concerns
Spot gold slipped 2.1% to $4,554.99 per ounce on Friday, breaking the $4,600 barrier for the first time in a week. The decline was driven by a stronger U.S. dollar, rising Treasury yields and oil‑price‑fueled inflation expectations, putting pressure on the precious‑metal market.
PCE Inflation Set to Hit 3.7%—Hottest Since 2023
🔥A post mortem on the inflation data this week and what it means for the Fed ‘s target PCE measure. The energy prices are hot and to be expected. The components of CPI, PPI and import prices that feed directly...
10y10y Yield Tops 2022, Signaling
The US' 10y10y forward Treasury yield (red) has just gone above its highest level in 2022, when we were dealing with massive global supply disruptions due to the COVID recovery. We're in a global debt overhang and the bill is...
Morgan Stanley Warns "Capex Over Consumption" As AI Drives US Growth
Morgan Stanley’s mid‑year US outlook, released May 12, declares a "Capex Over Consumption" economy, projecting 2.3% real GDP growth in 2026 while consumer spending slows to 1.8%. The bank highlights AI‑related capital spending—$805 bn from the five largest hyperscalers in 2026—as the...
The Federal Reserve’s Independence Is Hanging by a Thread in the Age of Trump
Jerome Powell stepped down as Federal Reserve chair after steering the U.S. economy to a rare soft landing, curbing inflation without triggering a recession. During his tenure he repeatedly rebuffed President Donald Trump’s demands for rate cuts and publicly defended...
Foreclosure Filings Jump 18% in April to 42,430 Homes, Highlight Housing Stress
ATTOM data show 42,430 U.S. properties received foreclosure filings in April 2026, an 18% increase from a year earlier. Foreclosure starts rose 12% to 28,414, while completed foreclosures surged 42% to 5,098, signaling growing pressure on homeowners amid high mortgage...
Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-May
The latest macro data show monthly GDP growth through March, while April’s CPI‑deflated retail sales slipped. Real retail sales excluding gasoline stations fell, reflecting the recent gasoline price surge. Employment remains robust, with NFP and civilian job metrics holding steady....
USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins Sued over Alleged Workplace Religious Coercion
The National Federation of Federal Employees and seven USDA staff have filed a lawsuit in California alleging that Secretary Brooke Rollins repeatedly injected Christian language into agency communications, violating the Establishment Clause. The case could force the department to reevaluate...
Energy Crisis Threatens Inflation, Rate Cuts, Yields Near 5%
The risk to this rosy scenario remains a prolonged energy crisis that feeds through the broader economy via elevated structural inflation, which in turn could undermine the Treasury-Fed’s strategy of dropping short rates, while driving bond yields into the danger...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Climb To 211,000 As Energy Prices Threaten Stable Labor Market
U.S. initial unemployment claims rose to a seasonally adjusted 211,000 for the week ending May 9, surpassing the Reuters forecast of 205,000. Continuing claims also increased, reaching 1.782 million, a proxy for hiring trends. The surge coincides with higher energy and commodity...
Fervo Energy's $10 B Clean‑Energy IPO Marks Largest Geothermal Offering to Date
Fervo Energy completed a $1.89 billion upsized IPO, pricing 70 million shares at $27 each and closing at $36.54, which pushed its market value past $10 billion. The record‑size offering underscores investor appetite for geothermal power, especially as AI data centers seek reliable,...
Bessent Sees 'Substantial Disinflation' Ahead as Warsh Takes over the Fed
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that despite April’s CPI rising 0.6 % and core inflation at 2.8 % YoY, he expects only one or two more hot inflation readings before a substantial disinflation period begins. He attributes the recent energy‑fed price...
Mortgage Rates Stabilized at 6.36%, Despite Inflation
Mortgage rates held steady this week, with the Freddie Mac 30‑year benchmark slipping to 6.36% after a one‑basis‑point decline. The dip occurred even as the 10‑year Treasury yield rose on fresh inflation concerns, thanks to higher prices for mortgage‑backed securities and...
Inversion Signals Recession, yet Fed‑driven, Not Deflationary
10Y Treasury Yield−3M Treasury Bill Yield A deep inversion followed by re-steepening has historically been one of the best recession warning signals. But this cycle was driven primarily by extreme short-rate tightening from the Fed, not by a collapse in long-term inflation...
Baird's Mayfield: The Fed Is Done Cutting; Market's Not Done Rising
In this episode, Baird investment strategist Ross Mayfield argues that the Federal Reserve has likely finished cutting rates, despite lingering market optimism and mixed inflation data. He warns that investment theses predicated on further cuts should be reconsidered, and he...
KC Fed Pres Schmid: Inflation Remains Too High.
Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid warned that inflation remains too high, describing it as the most pressing economic risk. He highlighted the economy's resilience, noting solid fundamentals, a functioning labor market, and strong consumer spending driven by wealth gains....
US Import and Export Prices Jump Most Since 2022 on Fuel Costs
In April 2026 the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said the import price index rose 1.9% and the export price index jumped 3.3% from the prior month, the steepest gains since early 2022. The surge was driven by a 19%...
The US Consumer Refuses To Crack
U.S. retail sales rose 0.5% in April, matching the headline gauge, and the control‑group index—excluding autos, gas stations, and food services—accelerated to an 8% annualized pace, the fastest since mid‑2022. Despite higher nominal prices for gasoline and groceries, nine of...
Inflation Surge Sends Dow Crashing While S&P Holds, Raising Large‑Cap Concerns
U.S. core CPI jumped 0.4% month‑over‑month to 2.8% year‑over‑year, prompting the Dow Jones Industrial Average to tumble 277 points while the S&P 500 edged higher. Analysts warn the surge could test the resilience of large‑cap stocks that have lingered near...
U.S. Inflation Spikes to 3.8% in April, Stoking Fresh Fed Policy Worries
U.S. consumer price inflation accelerated to 3.8% year‑over‑year in April, the fastest rise in three years, intensifying debate over the Federal Reserve’s next move. The surge has already rattled equity markets, pressured the rupee and sparked a wave of commentary...
Bankrate and Freddie Mac Mortgage Rate Data : Using FRED to Compare Similar but Not Identical Datasets
The Federal Reserve’s FRED platform now hosts parallel mortgage‑rate series from Freddie Mac and Bankrate, letting users visualize and quantify differences between the two datasets. Freddie Mac’s rates reflect averages of thousands of loan applications, while Bankrate’s figures come from surveys of...
Initial Jobless Claims Rise to 211k, Slightly Above Forecast
"In the week ending May 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 211,000, an increase of 12,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 1,000 from 200,000 to 199,000." Slightly...
Senate Confirms Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair, Raising Questions on Future Rate Policy
The U.S. Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair in a 54‑45 vote, positioning a former crisis‑era banker at the helm of the world’s most influential central bank. Warsh, a Trump appointee with a $100 million personal fortune, has signaled...
Ken Griffin Warns of 3.8% Inflation and Strong Jobs Data, Flags Portfolio Shifts on CNBC
Citadel founder Ken Griffin told CNBC that a surprisingly strong April jobs report and a 3.8% consumer‑price index could push the Federal Reserve toward higher rates. He warned that the macro backdrop will shape Citadel’s asset allocation, from rate‑sensitive equities...
30‑Year Treasury Yield Breaks 5% for First Time Since 2007 Amid Inflation Surge
The U.S. Treasury auctioned $25 bn of new 30‑year bonds at a 5.046% yield, the first time the long‑bond has cleared the 5% threshold since 2007. The spike follows a sharp rise in producer‑price inflation and soaring oil prices, reviving concerns...
Weak PPI, Hot CPI Push Fed Hike Odds, BTC Holds
The macro just broke. April PPI printed +6% YoY and +1.4% MoM — a fivefold miss vs the 0.5% consensus, the worst print since 2022. Combined with Tuesday's hot CPI at 3.8%, markets are now pricing a non-trivial chance the...
Aramark Posts 12% Revenue Growth and 116% Free Cash Flow Jump, Launches AI Data‑center Contract
Aramark announced Q2 2026 results with organic revenue climbing 12% to $4.8 billion and free cash flow surging 116% to $305 million. The food‑service giant also unveiled a capital‑light AI data‑center partnership that could generate several hundred million dollars in annual revenue.
From Cuts to Hikes: The Fed's Shifting Calculus
The Federal Reserve’s April FOMC statement included an easing bias, suggesting future rate cuts, but three voting members—Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan—voiced dissent, and Boston Fed President Susan Collins has now joined them. Market participants anticipate the bias will be dropped...
Fed Quietly Resumed QE, Adding $200B to Balance Sheet
An under appreciated regime change is that the Federal Reserve quietly restarted Quantitative Easing (QE) in December by expanding its balance sheet. The Fed accumulates bonds, soaking up bonds that would otherwise go to the open market reducing money supply. ~$200B increase...
Owner's Rent Index Surges 7% Amid Survey Uncertainty
One component of CPI is owner's equivalent rent. It shot up at an almost 7% annualized rate in the most recent report. The last time it came in so hot it's because interest rates were near 0%. The problem is it's...
Eurozone Q1 GDP Grows 0.1% as US Export Outlook Gets Modest Lift
Eurostat data released Wednesday showed the euro area economy expanded 0.1% in the first quarter, slowing from the 0.2% gain in the previous quarter and bringing annual growth down to 0.8%. The modest rebound eases concerns about a deeper slowdown...
Job Growth Fuels Retail Gains Amid Low Unemployment
Consumer continues to consume: Retail sales .5% vs .4% X and ex-auto .7% vs .4% X. It's all about labor - with another week of strong jobless claims - lowest since Jan 2024 at 204K 4 wk moving...
Long‑term Bond Yields Hit 2008 Highs, Inflation Fight Drags On
Average yields on long-dated government bonds have reached their highest levels since 2008, h/t @DRBCurtis "The last mile of fighting inflation is a marathon rather than a sprint...there are a lot of upward pressures on rates across the curve:" Apollo's...
How Jerome Powell Managed a Chaotic Era
Jerome Powell’s tenure as Federal Reserve chair, spanning the COVID‑19 pandemic, the Russia‑Ukraine war, and a surge in inflation, is examined in a new New York Times video. The piece highlights his aggressive rate‑hiking cycle—11 hikes that lifted the federal...
U.S. Job Market Remains Inflationary as Wage Growth Accelerates
New at THE OVERSHOOT: The U.S. Job Market is (Still) Inflationary https://t.co/KpTd2X6fNG Wage growth is now accelerating slightly, supporting the quickening of "supercore" service price increases. Plus: more on the health care wage slowdown mystery. https://t.co/pBeutaTLhh
Gold Slides Below $4,700 as Inflation Data Fuels Dollar Strength
Gold slipped below $4,700 an ounce after US inflation numbers bolstered the dollar and nudged Treasury yields higher. Spot gold settled at $4,697, while futures traded at $4,707.75. At the same time, Dateline Resources unveiled a $1.08 billion cash‑flow study for...
Senate Confirms Kevin Warsh as the New Federal Reserve Chair — Here’s What This ‘Regime Change’ Will Mean
Kevin Warsh was confirmed by the Senate as the next Federal Reserve chair in a 54‑45 vote, succeeding Jerome Powell on May 15. Warsh, a Wall Street veteran, promises a "regime change" as the Fed confronts rising inflation driven by higher...
Goldman Sachs Forecasts Stronger Dollar and Higher Rates as Energy Shock Persists
Goldman Sachs expects the U.S. dollar to appreciate further while interest rates remain elevated, linking both trends to a sustained energy‑price shock and surprisingly resilient economic growth. The outlook signals a “higher‑for‑longer” rate environment that could reshape global capital flows.
Producer Prices Jump to Three-Year High, Spurred by War Shortages
U.S. wholesale prices jumped 1.4% in April, pushing the Producer Price Index to a 6% year‑over‑year gain—the strongest increase since December 2022. The surge is driven by war‑related spikes in oil, with wholesale energy prices up 7.8% and transportation costs...
War Inflation Triggers Sharp Jump In US Mortgage Rates
War‑driven inflation pushed the 30‑year fixed mortgage rate up 15 basis points, reaching 6.57% according to Mortgage News Daily. Purchase applications rose, surpassing last year’s pace despite the rate jump. Sellers continue to dominate, holding a 46.5% advantage over buyers,...
Fed's Collins Says Rate Hikes May Be Needed to Quell Inflation
Boston Fed President Susan Collins warned that the Federal Reserve may need to raise rates if inflation does not ease, though she sees that outcome as unlikely. She linked the inflation outlook to the duration of the Middle East conflict,...
US Producer Inflation Surges by 6pc in April
U.S. producer prices jumped 6% year‑over‑year in April, the strongest rise since December 2022, as soaring energy costs tied to the Middle East Gulf war lifted the overall PPI. The Bureau of Labor Statistics revised the index up from a 4.3%...
Producer Price Index PPI Surges 1.4 Percent in April, Fed Behind the Curve?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 1.4% month‑over‑month rise in the Producer Price Index for final demand in April 2026, the strongest gain since March 2022. Services accounted for roughly 60% of the increase, with trade‑service margins jumping 2.7%,...
Rare 10‑Year Yield Dip Predicts Stock Gains
10-YEAR US TREASURY HITS 4.5% FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 302 DAYS How rare is this? Well, since 1970, this is only the third time that the 10y has been below 4.5% for at least 200 trading days before going back...
The Inevitable Decline of the Dollar | Former Fed Governor Tom Hoenig
Former Kansas City Fed chief Thomas Hoenig warned that under incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh the dollar’s purchasing power will keep eroding. He said the US‑Iran war‑driven oil price shock could keep inflation high, making rate cuts unlikely and modest...
The U.S. Inflation Problem Is Getting Worse
U.S. inflation is accelerating as the Producer Price Index jumped 1.4% in April and is up 6% over the past year. Core services inflation reached a 4.4% year‑over‑year increase, the strongest since 2023, driven by higher transportation and warehousing costs....
Bond Market Stays Silent Despite Scorching US PPI
One of the notable developments this morning is the "dog that didn't bark": the lack of a significant bond market reaction to a scorching US PPI print. The move in government bond yields has been de minimis, as shown in the...
Delinquency Rates Hit Record Highs Across Major Loans
13.1% of credit card balances in the US are now 90+ days delinquent, the highest since 2011. 10.3% of student loan balances are now 90+ days delinquent, the highest since 2020. 5.6% of auto loan balances are now 90+ days delinquent, the...
Tax‑cut Promises Clash with Rising Inflation as Voters Assess Trump’s Economic Record
As inflation keeps climbing, voters in North Carolina confront the reality of President Trump’s tax‑cut agenda. The debate is sharpening ahead of the midterm elections, with Senate races in battleground states poised to decide control of Congress.
Jobless Claims Hit 56-Year Low, Tied Record
The second-to-last jobless claims report was tied for the lowest in the last 56 years. (That's in honor of @OddStats returning)