Jerome Powell’s Finest Hour
Jerome Powell, the outgoing Federal Reserve chair, is being cast as a modern‑day Churchill for defending the central bank’s independence against President Donald Trump’s political pressure. The piece argues that despite policy missteps, Powell’s willingness to push back on attempts to politicize monetary policy will define his legacy. It highlights the broader tension between elected officials and the Fed’s mandate to manage inflation and employment free from short‑term political influence. Powell’s tenure ends amid a heated debate over the proper role of the Fed in a polarized political environment.
Inflation Set to Surge Amid Deficits, Oil, Tight Labor
Another bout of inflation is largely baked in the cake. Deficit still at 5.8% of GDP despite DOGE. Strait of Hormuz keeping oil elevated. Immigration restrictions tightening labor supply just as capex boom creates new hiring demand. Wage growth is turning...
Tight Jobs and Strong Services May Spike Rate Pressure
🚨 Morning Market Rundown – May 5, 2026 🚨 Big data cluster this morning — services PMI + JOLTs could move rates and sentiment fast 👀 🗓️ Economic Events: 0830 - Trade Balance (Mar): Exp -$60.9B; Prior -$57.3B 0945 - S&P Services PMI (Apr):...
NY Fed President John Williams Says Policy Ready Amid Middle East Uncertainty
New York Fed President John C. Williams told a New York audience that the Federal Reserve’s current stance is well‑positioned to handle heightened uncertainty from the Middle East conflict. He projected 2‑2.25% GDP growth this year, unemployment around 4.25‑4.5%, and...
Middle‑East Tensions Push U.S. Treasury Yields Higher Across Curve
Geopolitical friction in the Strait of Hormuz sent U.S. Treasury yields up across the curve, the 10‑year reaching 4.44% (+6.6 bps). The rally in Brent crude to $114.44 a barrel and a revised Treasury borrowing estimate of $189 billion for Q2...
What Are the Main Events for Today?
Swiss CPI is projected to rise to 0.6% YoY, up from 0.3% last month, reflecting higher energy costs, though the SNB is expected to look through the shock. In the U.S., the ISM Services PMI is forecast at 53.7, slightly...
Deportations Drive Sharp Drop in Domestic Worker Employment.
Employment of domestic workers decreased in sectors with greatest levels of deporations. Our core competence has become own goals. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-27/us-population-growth-slows-significantly-due-to-less-immigration?cmpid=eveus&utm_campaign=eveus&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=260504&utm_content=4131
Treasury Cuts Inflation Table, Keeps only CPI, Food, Energy
Treasury's latest economic report to the TBAC (private-sector advisers on public debt issuance) slimmed down its inflation table, dropping core inflation measures along with a range of subcategories. What's remaining: headline CPI, food, and energy. Q1 (left) vs Q2 (right) https://t.co/XQ4paUIFqa
Spending to Hit Record $38 Billion for Mother's Day
U.S. consumer spending for Mother’s Day is projected to reach a record $38 billion in 2026, according to the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics. This eclipses last year’s $34.1 billion and the previous record of $35.7 billion set in 2023. The average...
10‑Year Inflation Expectation Peaks at 2.5%
Inflation expectations over the next 10 years have risen to the highest level since 2023, to 2.5%, according to breakeven rates. https://t.co/x2ujJFz6iY
Fed Injects $7.6B Amid Oil Crisis Volatility
The Fed will inject $7,585,000,000 into the economy today at 9am ET, just before US market open. This is happening due to the oil crisis and extreme market volatility. https://t.co/RV7DQnb0Ci
Four Measures of Aggregate Economic Activity
The latest release of the SPGMI monthly GDP index shows a 2.1% month‑over‑month annualized increase, indicating that aggregate output continues to rise sharply. This growth aligns with the Brave‑Butters‑Kelley coincident index and the Philadelphia Fed’s coincident index, all of which...
Remote Rural Workers Feeling Stuck as Quit Rates Drop
✍️ @sarahoconnor_ @ftopinion 💥Quit rates↘️ in US &UK 👉”…people who switched to remote work during the pandemic and moved to rural areas might now be a little trapped in those jobs” https://t.co/VM01o0P5mu
April Payrolls Projected to Add 70,000 Jobs, Unemployment May Slip to 4.2%
KPMG forecasts that U.S. private‑sector payrolls will increase by 70,000 in April, a modest gain that could lower the unemployment rate to 4.2%. The outlook highlights continued wage growth, sector‑specific headwinds, and a potential boost for Federal Reserve hawks.
U.S. Factory Orders Jump 1.5% in March to $630.4 Billion, Beating Forecasts
U.S. factory orders increased 1.5% month‑over‑month to $630.4 billion in March 2026, far exceeding the 0.5% growth economists expected. The surge was led by computers, electronic products and transport equipment, while nondurable goods hit their highest level since October 2022.
Bond Yields Rise, Yet Manufacturing Gains Momentum
Bond yields are rising on inflation fears while factory orders just posted their strongest gain in months and manufacturing keeps expanding. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/ra2hKn68G2
S&P 500 Futures Slip 0.5% as Implied Volatility Rises to 72.25
E‑mini S&P 500 futures closed at 72.25, down roughly 0.5% on the day, as implied volatility sharpened. The move comes as traders brace for a packed economic calendar, including non‑farm payrolls and Fed commentary, and it signals tighter pricing for...
USD Slides Further as Global Central Banks Tighten While Fed Stays Paused
DBS Group Research economist Philip Wee warned that the U.S. dollar’s recent slide will likely continue into May, driven by a widening policy gap: the Federal Reserve is expected to remain on pause through 2026 while the ECB, BoE and...
US National Debt Reaches 100% of GDP
The U.S. public debt has surpassed 100 percent of nominal GDP, a ratio last seen after World War II. Treasury data attribute the rise to pandemic relief, higher defense outlays, and chronic deficits. Analysts warn that a debt‑to‑GDP level above one could...
US Home Price Insights — May 2026
U.S. home prices showed only a 0.4% year‑over‑year increase in March 2026, marking the slowest growth since the post‑pandemic correction began. After seven straight months of declines, the market posted a second consecutive monthly gain, up 0.3% from February. Only...
Redfin Economists’ Weekly Take: Volatile Rates Ahead as Fed Turns Hawkish and Energy Shock Builds
Redfin economists warn that interest rates will stay volatile as the Federal Reserve adopts a more cautious, hawkish tone amid rising inflation and an escalating Iran‑related energy shock. Core PCE inflation remains at 3.2% YoY, the highest since late‑2023, while...
Bond Yields Are Rising. Why That Could End the Stock Market’s Rally.
U.S. Treasury yields have surged, pushing the 10‑year rate above 4.5% and prompting a pullback in equities. The S&P 500 slipped 0.4% while growth names like Amazon rose modestly and the bond‑focused TLT ETF fell 0.8%. Analysts warn that continued...
Rates Spark: 10yr SOFR Hits the 4% Handle
On Monday the 10‑year SOFR rate climbed to 4%, up 50 basis points from the pre‑Iran‑war level of 3.5%. The rise places the rate in a zone the firm identifies as optimal for receiving fixed in swap‑to‑floating strategies, offering potentially...
José Torres Analyzes the Federal Reserve Meeting
In the May 4 video, Bond Buyer senior analyst José Torres breaks down the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting. The Fed left its benchmark rate unchanged at the 5.25%‑5.50% range and hinted that any easing will be gradual as inflation remains...
Powell Out
The Financial Times has assembled a dedicated Monetary Policy Radar team to track global central‑bank actions and forecast rate moves. Chris Giles, the veteran economics commentator, leads the editorial side after 19 years at the FT. Andrew Whiffin, a CFA‑journalist...
Kalshi Traders See April Jobs Report Coming in Better than Economists' Estimates
Kalshi’s prediction‑market participants are betting the April non‑farm payroll report will beat the Dow Jones consensus of 53,000 jobs, assigning a 50% probability of at least 66,000 jobs added. An 81% chance the figure will be positive would mark the...
Bad Government Statistics Can Cost the Economy Billions
U.S. government surveys are losing respondents at an accelerating pace. The Current Population Survey’s monthly response rate has slipped from nearly 90% a decade ago to under 70% today, while the Consumer Expenditure Survey’s participation has fallen from about 70%...
FOMC Unity Masks Dissent; Expect USD Short on Hawkish Fed
Macro: FOMC consensus exceeds visible dissent. Key factor: uncertainty amplified votes. Risk: markets may overreact to perceived division. Trade: buy USD short on Fed's hawkish tilt. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD,CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Why Focus on Final Sales to Private Domestic Purchasers?
Preliminary U.S. GDP rose 2 % SAAR after a 0.5 % gain in Q4, while final sales to private domestic purchasers—often called “core GDP”—jumped to a 2.5 % SAAR, up from 1.8 % previously. Historically, core GDP was slightly more volatile than headline GDP,...
U.S. Treasury Rates Weekly Update for May 1, 2026
U.S. Treasury yields rose across the curve in the week ending May 1, 2026. The benchmark 10‑year yield increased by 8 basis points to 4.39%, while the 30‑year climbed 6 basis points, hovering near 4.45%. The 3‑year rate held at 3.91%, reflecting...
America Is Lucky It’s No Longer a Manufacturing Powerhouse—It’s What’s Protecting the U.S. Economy From the Worst of the Oil...
The Iran‑Iran war’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed U.S. gasoline to over $4.45 per gallon and sparked a 0.7% jump in core inflation, the biggest in three years. Cornell economist Eswar Prasad argues that America’s transition from...
Landlords Push $1.5 Billion Settlement Over Pandemic Eviction‑Moratorium Losses
A coalition of over 1,500 property owners, led by Texas landlord Matthew Haines, is negotiating a settlement with the Justice Department to recoup as much as $1.5 billion they say they lost when the CDC’s eviction moratorium halted rent collection. The...
J.P. Morgan Warns AI Could Cut Half of Entry‑level White‑collar Jobs, Cites Infrastructure Limits
J.P. Morgan Private Bank’s April 21, 2026 report predicts AI could wipe out as many as 50% of entry‑level white‑collar positions in the United States, but argues three constraints – model capability, physical infrastructure, and regulatory resistance – will temper...
Minneapolis Fed Chief Neel Kashkari Warns of Rate‑Hike Risk Amid Middle‑East Uncertainty
Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President and CEO Neel Kashkari used a national TV interview to argue that ongoing conflict in the Middle East could force the Fed to consider higher interest rates, diverging from the committee’s recent pause. His remarks...
Barclays Predict No Fed Rate Cuts in 2026, Raising Bond Market Stakes
Barclays on Monday forecast that the U.S. Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates at any point in 2026, aligning with a growing chorus of brokerages betting on a prolonged high‑rate environment. The note cites soaring energy prices from the...
Mortgage Rates Climb as Inflation Rebounds and Yields Rise
Mortgage rates rose in April, with the 30‑year fixed reaching 6.34% and the 15‑year climbing to 5.69%, marking a 16‑basis‑point and 13‑basis‑point increase respectively. The jump mirrors a higher 10‑year Treasury yield of 4.31%, up 7 basis points, as oil...
US Consumer Resilience Overestimated Amid Rising Energy, Services Costs
"Increase in the retail prices of gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and naphtha between February 27 and April 27: it is “somewhat counterintuitive” that the US is now experiencing some of the largest price increases globally, and might indicate that it...
Key Events This Week: Payrolls, Quarterly Refunding, Confidence, And More Earnings
This week’s economic calendar is dominated by the U.S. April jobs report, projected to show 75,000 payroll gains and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate. Complementary data include the ADP employment estimate, JOLTS job‑openings, ISM services, and the University of Michigan...
Geopolitical Tensions and Tariffs Fuel Mixed Market Outlook
Markets are mixed this morning and here's why it matters 👇 Iran allegedly shot at US ships overnight. US denies damage but the message is clear, tensions are escalating, not cooling. Oil popped, then faded. Dow down, NASDAQ up, S&P flat. Add...
SOFR Shows Near‑Zero Rate Cuts as Hidden Stimulus Fuels Growth
As of today, SOFR curve is pricing in ~ 8 bps of cuts in 2027 and ~2 bps of cuts in 2028. Cuts have finally been priced out as there is very little basis for them. Policymakers are using more...
Bond Market Flags Risk as 30‑Year Yield Tops 5%
The 30-Year Treasury yield closed above 5% today and it not far from its highest level in more than a decade. The stock market may be ignoring Iran and Inflation, but the bond market is not. Video: https://t.co/2JUqFjVZ49
30‑Year Yield Breaks 5%, War Sparks Bond Vigilantes
Today, the U.S. 30-year benchmark bond yield pierced the important 5% resistance level, ending at 5.02%. Bonds severely underperform in wartime. With the war on Iran, the bond vigilantes ride again. They will teach WARMONGER Trump a lesson. https://t.co/sNxVUqdYwF
Factory Construction Collapses, Consumer Confidence Hits Historic Low
For reality fans, factory construction is plummeting, and consumer confidence is at a record low, But as they say, TALE: Trumpers Always Lie about Everything.
Fed's Dual Mandate Fuels Record Long-Term Rate Surge
Long-term Exploitation of Extraordinary Monetary Policy Tools, a Fed utilizing either side of it's Dual Mandate to justify lower, a lack of inflation, including CPI & PCE understating reality, helped foster the continuation of an incredible LT bull market in...
Critical Rate Threshold Threatening Big‑Cap Tech Stocks
At what level would long term interest rates need to be to negatively impact big cap tech stocks? $NDX
May Jobs Report Signals Crucial Monetary Policy Direction
The May jobs report is coming at a critical point for monetary policy. I'll be sharing my analysis on what the data signals for rates, growth, and more in this month's In The Know later this week. What else would...
NY
Old Wall Willy, thanks for coming out, eh bud > New York Fed's Williams says policy well positioned, but sees risks to both sides of dual mandate https://t.co/oglUihNRPZ
Rising Inflation, Higher Rates Signal Sell Housing Stocks
If you had our Macro Inflation Accelerating and Rates Rising Nowcast, you would not belong this stock or Housing $ITB $LEN https://t.co/2zbacX6GvP
Treasury Yields Surge; Fed Cuts Needed to Reach 6%
Bond Market on Edge: Treasury Yields Spike, 30-Year to 5.03%, Mortgage Rates to 6.52%, as Gulf War Reheats. Which raises a question: How many more Fed rate cuts would it take in this inflationary era to drive the 30-year Treasury yield...
March Factory Orders Surge 1.5%, Confirming Recovery
March factory orders came in really strong. Forecasts were expected to be +.4% but came in at +1.5%, the highest levels since 2022, another confirmation of the industrial recovery underway. https://t.co/qci0SP0fCx