Know What's Happening in US Economy
Know What's Happening in US Economy
The Congressional Budget Office’s 2026‑2036 outlook projects annual deficits of 6‑7% of GDP, pushing total federal debt above the size of the economy by 2026 and setting a record for publicly held debt. Social Security’s trust fund is projected to become insolvent in 2032, forcing a 23% cut to benefits for all recipients. The recent One Big Beautiful Bill adds a $4.1 trillion hole to the budget, while rising debt is expected to lift 10‑year Treasury yields and increase borrowing costs for households and businesses. These dynamics create a fiscal trajectory that could crowd out other policy priorities.
Tomorrow will be the most imporant FOMC meeting of our lives Until the next one
The market is pricing in three things simultaneously: • Oil stays above $100 • Fed cuts rates • Inflation falls to 2% You can have two. Not all three. If oil wins → stagflation. If Fed capitulates → dollar collapses. If demand craters → recession. Every...
The U.S. Treasury auctioned $13 bn of 20‑year notes at a 4.817% yield, stopping 0.7 bps through the issue price. Bid‑to‑cover climbed to 2.76, outpacing the six‑auction average. Foreign indirect demand surged to 69.2%, the highest since April 2025, while direct bidder participation...
Pending home sales recorded an unexpected beat in February, rising 1.8% month-over-month versus a forecast of -1%. However, sales were down 0.8% year-over-year and the outlook isn't great given mortgage rates hit those 3.5-year lows in February. They are now markedly higher...
The FOMC meets this week but no one's paying attention. Markets are focused on geopolitics, not rate decisions. Here's what actually matters: the dot plot, the statement language, and the three scenarios that could move markets.
Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi warned that a 49% chance of a U.S. recession looms within the next year as crude oil prices surge amid the U.S.-Iran conflict. Brent crude jumped nearly 40% in March, reaching $119.50 per barrel, while...
The Fed starts its most consequential meeting of the year today. Oil is above $100. The S&P 500 clings to its 200-day moving average. Wednesday's dot plot will reveal whether any rate cuts survive in 2026. The answer could set...
A new tax deduction lets buyers claim up to $10,000 a year on interest paid for new, American-made cars purchased between 2025 and 2028. To qualify, the vehicle must be assembled in the U.S., verified by its VIN, and bought...
U.S. consumers showed surprising resilience in January, with discretionary retail sales climbing 6% year‑over‑year despite a dip in sentiment. Analysts, however, warn that rising credit‑card debt, higher delinquency rates and mounting fuel costs could erode that strength by 2026. Forecasts...
In this episode of Money Life, chief economist Jeanette Garrity warns that the war in Iran has revived recession and bubble concerns, estimating a 30‑35% chance of a recession. Technical analyst Adam Grimes argues that current market volatility—especially in stocks...
Pending home sales in February rose 1.8% month‑over‑month but slipped 0.8% year‑over‑year, reflecting a modest rebound after a brief dip in mortgage rates. Active inventory jumped 7.9% YoY, giving buyers more leverage in many regions. The South and West posted...
🚨 TRADERS JUST TIPPED THEIR HAND BEFORE FED The market is already telling us what to expect from the Fed - and smart traders are paying attention. Stocks are rallying and the dollar is pulling back ahead of Wednesday's Fed decision. That's...
"While markets previously anticipated a cut as early as this July and two more by next spring, the current trajectory has moved aggressively, with a full cut now not priced in until March 2027." -S&P Global Vörös
The Daily Feather’s new post spotlights the oddball nicknames of U.S. colleges, zeroing in on Wichita State University’s “Shockers.” It traces the Shockers moniker to early 20th‑century wheat‑harvesting students who earned a reputation for “shocking” the grain. The article pairs...
In the two oil shocks of the 70's the Fed tightened due to the broad inflationary impact of leaving the gold standard and Bretton woods. Oil was a symptom not a cause of inflation In 90 the Fed paused cuts...
FOMC is the biggest event this week. Interest rate decisions and Fed commentary can shift market direction, volatility, and momentum across Nasdaq and gold. Price often reacts aggressively around these releases, especially near key supply and demand levels. If you’re trading this week,...
Redfin economists expect mortgage rates to keep oscillating as the Iran‑Israel conflict pushes energy prices higher and markets brace for the Federal Reserve’s second‑to‑last FOMC meeting this week. Mortgage rates have climbed from roughly 6.0% to 6.36%, while the ten‑year...
The Fed might prefer to say nothing this week. But the projections force them to sketch out a path. Two former Fed presidents told me they'd want to avoid projecting near-term cuts in the current situation. Whether sitting officials do...
Feb payrolls: -92K. Three-month average: +6K/month. The labor market isn't softening. It's contracting. And the Fed can't cut because oil won't let them. $SPY $TLT https://t.co/RVUtPtl388
The U.S. 10‑year Treasury yield is projected to climb into a 4.25‑4.5% band before easing back toward 4%, driven by higher nominal and real yields after the war’s shock. Even as the conflict winds down, inflation expectations remain structurally elevated,...
Pending Home Sales Ticked Up from Record Low. But Now Mortgage Rates Spiked Back over 6.3%. Home sales in February, as feeble as they were, benefitted from the lowest mortgage rates in years. Those rates are now gone https://t.co/2mll3eAbGK https://t.co/lVfYXLQXRz
👇This is the way (to look at marginal consumer spending) spot on, again @EPBResearch !
U.S. industrial production posted a fourth consecutive monthly gain in February, rising 0.2% month‑over‑month and 1.44% year‑over‑year, outpacing the 0.1% consensus. Manufacturing output mirrored the broader trend, also expanding 0.2% MoM, with durable goods edging up 0.1% and nondurables up...
Despite the recent steepening of the back-end, hard to fade and set up for next week's auctions with FOMC tomorrow. Fed clarification on how they view the recent crude inflation will have a strong impact on the...
The growing calls for Discount Window reform are being driven, in part, by a paradox in the post-GFC liquidity framework: banks are encouraged to hoard liquidity in normal times but hesitate to use it during stress. Details in my latest...
The January 2026 JOLTS report shows labor turnover stalled despite job openings rising to 6.9 million. Total hires held steady at 5.3 million and quits slipped to 3.1 million, while layoffs edged down, reinforcing a “no‑hire, no‑fire” environment. This follows a 2025 slowdown...
Should the Fed hike due to a supply shock in oil? No. Should the Fed cut due to oil supply shock causing weaker real growth. Also no. Get a grip pundits.
CHART OF THE DAY: US retail average diesel prices have topped the $5-per-gallon barrier for the 2nd time ever. That’s freight inflation — and another big hit to the country’s farming economy (and it has received many hit since...
U.S. industrial production rose 0.2% in February, edging past the 0.1% forecast and following a robust 0.7% gain in January. Capacity utilization held at 76.3%, still well below its long‑run average, signaling lingering slack in the sector. Manufacturing output matched...
Disposable personal income is rising. Oil price is rising. Budget deficits are rising. Going to be very hard to cut rates
For those bullish wars, don't forget: WARS ARE INFLATIONARY which can accelerate economic deterioration that is already in motion. Now pit INFLATION against this backdrop: liquidity versus solvency.👇 Liquidity crisis can quickly turn to solvency crisis. Fed can step in during liquidity episodes, Fed...
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that total non‑farm payrolls fell by 92,000 jobs in February, with health‑care employment shrinking by 28,000 jobs after a wave of worker strikes. Despite the dip, the health‑care sector has added an average of...
Preparation for liquidity crisis to minimize repo/money market volatility that are threatening credit spreads due to oil spike and growth contraction from Trump trapping US-Israel War on Iran. #HYOAS “The Fed now holds about $358B in Treasury bills. That’s higher than the...
The S&P 500 has 3 headwinds right now. Most investors are only watching one. Here's what all 3 are, and the single indicator for each that tells you if it's getting better or worse 🧵
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey slipped to a -0.20 index in March, well below the 3.90 estimate. New orders edged higher while shipments plunged, creating a mixed demand picture. Delivery times stretched and supply availability weakened, yet employment rose modestly...
The U.S. federal government has collected $2.1T in revenue so far this fiscal year. But spending has already reached $3.1T. That leaves a $1.0T deficit. We aren't even through Q1 yet.
$SPY levels going into the week. On the agenda: - CPI & PPI Inflation Data (Wed) - FOMC / Interest Rate Decision (Wed) - Fed Press Conference (Wed)
There's going to be a lot of people complaining this week when the Fed doesn't cut rates. Let them. It's the right decision. In fact, interest rates should be much higher than where they are today. The free market should...
Fed officials were already before divided the Iran war over what to do about rates. Now the conflict threatens to entrench those positions and make it even harder to reach a consensus "Both sides are going to be able to say...
The US-Iran conflict pushed oil past $100 a barrel. This is going to keep inflation elevated. Elevated inflation stops the Fed from cutting, which isn’t good for risk assets. I don’t see a super cycle this year only lower lows as stated many...
99% probability the Fed holds rates steady at the next FOMC meeting in 2 days https://t.co/McZZLqnIC5
Last year, the US economy grew at its third-slowest rate in the last 14 years. https://t.co/RDFeuSRfcT
ICYMI: The Trump-era Basel bank capital proposal is coming Thursday, and the Fed and FDIC are having open board meetings at the same time to vote on it https://t.co/u34TWtDk8w https://t.co/TlK4sinLwp
For most of the past three years, falling energy prices have been helping to push the US inflation rate (CPI) lower. But that tailwind will soon become a headwind, with prices of Oil and Gas spiking on a YoY basis......
A 35% chance of a hike in '26 currently. 100% chance of three cuts back in November. Great chart from @sonusvarghese https://t.co/oAFz8G2I7j
The Fed should not even think about cutting rates again until the 12% additional inflation we've had since January 2020 above the 2% trendline is erased. There's no point in having an inflation target if you're not going to adhere...
Market relatively sanguine about longer term inflation. 5 year, 5 year forward inflation swap showing no angst despite crude elevating front short-term swaps https://t.co/b8Po5HE6EV
“Interestingly, any delay in Warsh’s confirmation is a gift to Warsh and a curse for Powell as the Fed now faces the challenge of managing yet another supply side shock with a president that views rate cuts as the answer...
Economic Calendar for Mon. Mar. 16 8:30am - NY Fed manufacturing index for March: Expected 3.9; Prior 7.1 10:00 - NAHB housing market index for March: Expected 37; Prior 36
