Know What's Happening in US Economy
Know What's Happening in US Economy
Goldman Sachs lifted its 12‑month recession probability to 25%, up five points after February’s disappointing jobs report and rising oil prices. The bank highlighted a 92,000‑job loss, unemployment climbing to 4.44% and a projected 4.6% rate by Q3, signaling a weakening labor market. Geopolitical tension from the Iran war could push Brent crude to $110, potentially driving headline inflation toward 4.5% this spring, while Trump’s tariffs are estimated to add 70 basis points to core inflation. Consequently, the Fed’s anticipated rate cuts have been pushed back to September and December 2026.
US economic data released today suggests that, leading up to the Middle East War, hitherto robust consumer spending had begun to soften. Meanwhile, inflation — as measured by core PCE, the Federal Reserve’s favorite measure — remained sticky, holding well...
Inflation was hearing up even before the US-Iran conflict began. Bad news for the economy and bad news for the Fed
Barclays economists now expect the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut in September 2024, pushing the next reduction to March 2027. This postpones the earlier June and September 2024 cuts the bank had forecast. Market pricing has collapsed to just 22.5...
How to interpret the rise in bond yields across the G10? Here's a guess: the market has priced in moderate oil disruption that marginally raises upside inflation risks and lowers probability of central bank easing this year. If at some...
As oil prices surged on Thursday during the intensifying Iran war, President Donald Trump again urged Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates, even as markets increasingly bet that rising energy costs would keep inflation elevated and delay...
USDA’s TOTAL survey shows over 2.1 million landlords control 347.8 million rented acres, generating $34.1 billion in rent, with non‑operating entities owning 79% of this land. Meanwhile, US sorghum prices remain flat as Chinese import demand stays silent, leaving future demand uncertain pending...
January was another hot month for PCE inflation (we're getting these data two weeks later than usual due to shutdown). Annual rates for core PCE: 4.5% 3.7% 3.1% 3.1%
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is shifting focus to stagflation as sluggish growth meets persistent core‑PCE inflation, prompting the Fed to keep policy rates steady. The resulting “higher‑for‑longer” stance is lifting 10‑year Treasury yields, which directly raise 30‑year mortgage rates....
If the Fed cut rates, bond yields would soar. Crude oil prices are surging due to supply constraints. The market needs demand destruction to restore balance. In plain English, there is not enough crude oil to go around because of the...
The Commerce Department’s third estimate cut fourth‑quarter 2025 GDP to a 0.7 percent annualized rate, half the 1.4 percent advance figure. Growth fell sharply from a 4.4 percent surge in Q3 2024, driven by a 43‑day federal shutdown that slashed government spending and...
The Bureau of Economic Analysis revised fourth‑quarter 2025 data, showing GDP growth slowed to 1.5% annualized, well below the 2.2% forecast earlier this year. The downgrade reflects weaker consumer spending, a modest rebound in inflation, and a softening labor market....
U.S. core inflation accelerated to a 3.1% year‑over‑year increase in January 2026, the fastest pace in nearly two years. The Bureau of Economic Analysis released the data after a delay caused by the prolonged government shutdown. This measure, the Fed’s...
The Labor Department’s JOLTS report showed January job openings at 6.946 million, surpassing the 6.7 million forecast. Hires rose modestly to 5.294 million, while quits slipped to 3.137 million and layoffs edged down to 1.631 million. Looking ahead, the 2025 annual averages project job openings...
The University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index slipped to 55.5 in March, missing the 55.0 forecast and marking the year’s lowest reading. Current‑conditions sentiment rose to 57.8, while expectations fell to 54.1, the weakest since last November. Year‑ahead inflation...
The Commerce Department revised fourth‑quarter 2025 GDP down to a 0.7% annualized gain, half the initial estimate and far below the 1.4% growth economists expected for the year. The downgrade reflects weaker consumer and government spending, softer exports, and a...
Looking ahead to next week - we have a laundry list of central bank rate decisions (almost all holding) with critical forecast updates at a critical time - like the #FOMC SEC. Historically, the 12th week of the year is the...
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis revised fourth‑quarter 2024 GDP growth to roughly 0.5% annualized, half of the initially reported rate. The slowdown coincides with persistently high inflation, reinforcing concerns of a stagflationary environment. Business leaders across diverse sectors report...
Notable: Disposable income (blue bar) surged in January. That was the first time in months that income growth was higher than spending growth (orange bar) Savings also ticked up (black line). I'm not sure what drove that jump in income. Minimum wage...
The Fed's preferred measure of inflation (Core PCE) moved up to 3.1% in January, the highest level in 22 months. That was the 59th consecutive reading above the Fed's 2% target level. There will be no Fed rate cut next...
Despite a 6% decline in overall single‑family housing starts in 2025, custom home building posted growth. NAHB data show 186,000 custom starts for the year, a 3% increase over 2024, even though fourth‑quarter starts slipped 4% year‑over‑year. Custom homes now...
Just In: PCE Inflation was 2.8% in January, a bit below expectations. But Core PCE Inflation was 3.1%, the highest since March 2024. **PCE Inflation could easily hit 4% this spring due to the war in Iran** It's notable that PCE...
The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its second estimate for fourth‑quarter GDP today, following an advance reading of 1.4% annualized growth, down from 4.4% in the prior quarter. Analysts will focus on the resilience of consumer spending and business...
US PCE Data is set to release today. Lets prepare for it in 3 simple steps using @mrkt_ai terminal. Comment "playbook" & i will dm you the MRKT access link
U.S. inflation has plateaued, with the consumer price index rising about 3.2% year‑over‑year in March, down from the double‑digit peaks of 2022. Core price pressures, however, stay above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal, keeping monetary policy on hold. Meanwhile, wage...
Michael Burry, an investor known for his book *The Big Short*, warned that the U.S. financial markets and economy are about to collapse. "The problem is too big to be salvaged."
The Schwab Market Update highlighted that U.S. equities slipped to three‑month lows ahead of key economic data, notably the January PCE price index and the JOLTS report, which will shape expectations for the Fed’s upcoming meeting. Rising crude oil prices,...
⚠️Broad money supply in developed countries is surging: Broad money across advanced economies rose to a record $74.1 trillion in 2025. This comes after a massive +25% surge during 2020–2022 before growth eased back to trend. It has risen over $50 trillion since...
After downward revisions to the 2025 employment data, the drop-off in job openings at the end of last year looks less pronounced than it initially appeared. January shows some improvement in the job vacancy-to-unemployed worker ratio, which rose to 0.97 from...
The Federal Reserve announced it will overhaul capital rules for large banks, moving to a single standardized risk‑based framework that explicitly accounts for loan‑to‑value ratios. Under the proposal, lower‑LTV mortgages would carry lighter capital charges, while high‑LTV loans face higher...
Fed's in a tough position here. Labor market and economy in general need a bit of TLC but war inflation may be one too many one-time price level increase. Default reaction will be no reaction for now. FOMC...
Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman on the Sanders proposal for a billionaire tax. More on this in the Chartbook Top Links today. https://t.co/985S5J7cYd
The Fed's balance sheet holdings of US Treasuries is now at October 2024 levels and rising. This is why it's difficult to get secularly bearish on gold. Material balance sheet expansion has begun with asset prices at ATHs and no...
My quick measure of affordability, real spending at fast-food restaurants, is down 3% since September https://t.co/Ge3YaPH3PU
CPI at 2.4%. Looks fine. Except $WTI is up 68% YTD and none of it is in the data yet. The Fed is trapped. Cut → inflation explodes. Hold → recession deepens. Goldman pushed cut to September. Futures say December 2027. https://t.co/WFbW5IQa0u
With Trump boasting about new factories everywhere, he would feel really stupid if he ever saw the data showing factory construction plummeting https://t.co/1T5VGrJqyn
It missed b/c of a methodological change that the BEA introduced today that cut the core PCE by about a tenth relative to expectations. And even then, it still rounded to 0.4%.
Big pop in pump prices will drag on discretionary spending when wages succumbing to disinflation. And consider starting point of 0.7% GDP coming into 2026 (which today’s GDP revisions demonstrate were driven WAY MORE by fundamentals vs old narrative of...
Spending on healthcare services is up 7.9% year over year, far higher than the inflation rate reported in the CPI https://t.co/Mt0STaWkJz
U.S. GDP grew by only 0.7% in the fourth quarter, compared with the forecast of 1.4%. The pace of growth has slowed noticeably. In such a situation, the Federal Reserve has more room not to keep interest rates high for too...
Core prices rose 0.36% in January in the PCE index (Nov and Dec price levels were revised up slightly), raising the 12-month inflation rate to 3.1% This index had fallen to 2.6% in April 2025 Headline was +0.28% in January and 2.8%...
January Core PCE prints at 3.1% as expected - previously 3.0% y/y Headline PCE prints at 2.8% vs 2.9% expected- previously 2.9% y/y
Markets are quiet today but there's a BIG week ahead with 7 central bank rate decisions including the Fed Here's my take on it all 👇
Energy Inflation for Americans. Dropping gasoline prices since mid-2022 papered over big price increases in electricity and natural gas. But that’s now over https://t.co/KjuZv4jN7V https://t.co/8HsWsulfsD
Yields on the 2-year Treasury note posted their largest daily increase since May 2, 2025 (the day of a surprisingly strong payroll report), and closed at their highest level since Aug. 21, 2025, the day before Powell signaled a likely...
The peak for the PCE's core goods x-autos series was 5.3% YoY in 2022. We're not there , but it will jump from 2.3% in Jan26 to 2.9% in Feb26 tks to a 1.0% MoM surge. Outside of covid, it's...
"Higher inflation could cause the Fed to eventually raise interest rates. But Sahm said the Fed will also consider what could happen if energy costs rise so high that the economy slows down. “That’s a scenario in which the Fed would...
I can see why the Trump administration likes the January trade data. Imports didn't move much v December and exports bounced back from a December dip. But there is a bit more going on under the hood 1/ many...
The share of energy-related consumer spending has declined in the US. @soberlook WFC @augurinfinity https://t.co/UrUf2APJn5 https://t.co/4k9Hw8tcSW
Live look at Powell getting the demands to cut rates while oil just spiked 100% https://t.co/qDIcLm6oIA
