The 8-4 Vote and the ¥5.4 Trillion Lie.
The Federal Open Market Committee voted 8‑4 on April 29 to keep the federal funds rate at 3.50‑3.75%, marking the most divided vote since 1992 and signaling no June rate cut. Treasury yields jumped, with the 10‑year at 4.39% and the 2‑year at 3.89%, while the equity market hit fresh all‑time highs driven by strong mega‑cap earnings. Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Apple posted robust revenue growth, but heavy capital‑expenditure guidance punished Microsoft and Meta shares. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan’s hawkish hold and a closed Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent crude to $126, lifting energy stocks and underscoring global inflation pressures.
Fed Cautious After 3.5% PCE, Buy
Fed cautious after PCE 3.5%: services inflation and oil/geopolitics lift risks; divided FOMC delays cuts. Trade: buy short‑duration Treasuries. —Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Fed Split, Japan's Massive Yen Defense, Markets on Borrowed Time
The Fed just split 8-4. Most divided vote since October 1992. Japan torched ¥5.4 trillion — 7% of FX reserves — in a single day defending the yen at 160. S&P at a record. Nasdaq's best month since 2020. This is what borrowed...
House Clears FY 2026 Budget Without Tax Reconciliation Path, Raising Uncertainty for Wealth Managers
The U.S. House of Representatives approved the FY 2026 budget resolution on Friday, but omitted any reconciliation instructions for the tax-writing committees. The move eliminates the most likely legislative vehicle for a near‑term tax bill, creating uncertainty for individuals and...
THE $1.3 TRILLION DEBT INTEREST BILL: The Debt Spiral, the Maturing $9 Trillion Debt Wall, the Budget Crowding Out &...
U.S. interest payments on the national debt surged to a record $1.3 trillion annually, making it the second‑largest federal budget item after Social Security. In the first half of FY 2025, interest expense rose 7% year‑over‑year to $623 billion, outpacing both defense and...
Bond Traders Hedge Both Cuts and Hikes as Fed Splits on Rate Outlook
After a sharply divided Federal Open Market Committee, bond market participants are simultaneously buying protection against future rate hikes and positioning for cuts. The split has sparked fresh hedging in the $31 trillion U.S. Treasury market, underscoring heightened uncertainty over monetary...
Swap Lines Make Recipients Fed Branches Without Voting Power
The best way to think about USD Swap Lines is that they basically transform the recipient into a new regional branch of the Federal Reserve or US Treasury but the new branch doesn't have any voting rights with regards to...
Inflation and Fuel Costs Drive Grocery Shoppers to E‑commerce, Data Shows
New retail data reveal that inflation and higher fuel prices are reshaping grocery buying habits in 2026. Shoppers are visiting stores more often but buying fewer items, while online grocery sales continue to grow at double‑digit rates, offering a bright...
Capitol Dispatch Weekend Digest
The Capitol Dispatch Weekend Digest highlights a surge in March inflation to 3.5% driven by a 21% jump in gas prices linked to the Trump‑initiated war in Iran. National gasoline costs topped $4 per gallon, adding roughly $456 annually to...
Foreign Assistance in More Danger Thanks to House Appropriations 2027 Funding Bills
The House Appropriations Committee released FY 2027 funding bills that trim the State Department budget by 6% to $47.32 billion. Within that, humanitarian assistance faces a 5.6% cut ($400 million) bringing it to $5.1 billion, global health programs drop 7.4% ($532 million) to $8.88 billion, and...
Economist Gary Shilling Warns of U.S. Recession and 30% S&P 500 Drop by Year‑End
Gary Shilling, the Merrill‑Lynch‑trained economist, told Business Insider that a U.S. recession is almost unavoidable this year and the S&P 500 could tumble 20‑30% by December. He cites stagnant consumer income, frozen housing activity and record‑high valuation multiples as the...
Invest in S&P 500: $1 Beats Inflation to $9
Inflation is the silent thief. Over the last 30 years, it cut the value of $1 in half. But $1 invested in the S&P 500 became nearly $9 – AFTER adjusting for higher prices. That’s the power of ownership. https://t.co/gb8aVaDFxZ
Meet the Unsinkable U.S. Economy — Oil Prices Are Surging, Iran Tensions ...
U.S. economic data this spring shows surprising resilience despite a new war with Iran and soaring oil prices. Gross domestic product rebounded to a 2% annualized pace in Q1, while manufacturing output extended a four‑month growth streak, the longest in...
U.S. Retail Electricity Prices Surge Ahead of CPI
American retail electricity prices are running very far ahead of CPI - striking report by Grace Fan featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the comment below. https://t.co/JRfEtYTzPA
‘We’re Worried the Honey Pot Will Run Dry’: Does the Trump Administration...
The Moneyist examines the long‑standing practice of the U.S. Treasury using Social Security surplus balances to fund other federal programs, a process often described as borrowing from the trust fund. Historically, the government tapped these reserves during the Vietnam War...
Mideast Energy Crisis Pushes Fed Toward Dovish Stance
Being a Fed dove in 2025: Here’s why we should cut Being a Fed dove in 2026: Here’s why we don’t need to hike How the Mideast energy crisis is reshaping the Fed’s debate
Trump Hikes EU Auto Tariffs to 25% and Orders 5,000‑troop Pullback From Germany
President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on cars and trucks imported from the European Union, accusing European manufacturers of violating a recent trade deal. At the same time, the Pentagon confirmed the withdrawal of about 5,000 troops from Germany...
Dollar Index Nudges Above 98 as Fed Pauses, Signals Hawkish Tone
The US Dollar Index (DXY) edged to 98.15 during Asian trading after the Federal Reserve kept rates at 3.5%-3.75% and delivered a hawkish hold. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s “good place” comment and renewed Middle East tensions lifted the greenback, even...
Top Economist Gary Shilling Says a Recession and a Deep Stock-Market Plunge Are Likely by Year-End
Top economist Gary Shilling warned that a U.S. recession is almost inevitable this year, citing weakening consumer spending, stagnant capital expenditures, and a frozen housing market. He predicts the S&P 500 could plunge up to 30% by year‑end as inflated valuations...
Realtor.com April Report Shows Rising Listings and Stable Prices Amid 6.5% Mortgage Rate
Realtor.com’s April 2026 Monthly Housing Report shows the median home price at $425,000, a 1.4% year‑over‑year decline, and a 4% rise in active listings month‑over‑month. The data suggest buyer resilience even as the 30‑year fixed mortgage rate hovered at 6.46%...
U.S. Stocks Climb as Apple Beats, Oil Slides and ISM PMI Misses Expectations
U.S. equity indexes closed higher on Friday after Apple posted a surprise earnings beat that lifted the S&P 500, while crude oil prices dropped more than 2% and the ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 52.7, below forecasts. The divergent moves...
Crude Oil Slides 3.3% to $101.79 as U.S.-Iran De‑Escalation Boosts Market Optimism
Crude oil prices plunged 3.28% on Friday, with WTI June futures trading at $101.79 a barrel, after reports that Iran offered a new peace proposal to the United States. The move lifted the U.S. Dollar Index to 98.22 and revived...
High‑Yield Savings Reach 4.21% APY as Fed Eases, Ten‑Fold National Avg
Axos Bank now offers a 4.21% APY on its high‑yield savings account, the highest rate available in May 2026. The rate is more than ten times the FDIC‑reported national average of 0.38%, reflecting a brief window of elevated yields as...
Arizona Employers File WARN Notices Cutting 940 Jobs in April 2026
Nine Arizona employers filed Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) notices in April 2026, announcing a total of 940 job cuts across food service, nonprofit social services, facilities maintenance, government contracting and beverage distribution. The wave of layoffs pushed the...
U.S. Debt Tops 100% of GDP for First Time Since WWII, Sparking Fiscal Alarm
The United States’ debt‑to‑GDP ratio reached 100.2% on March 31, 2026 – the first time it has exceeded the nation’s annual output since 1946. The milestone, driven by tax cuts, entitlement spending and persistent deficits, pushes interest payments past $1 trillion, outpacing...
U.S. Treasury Yields Edge Higher as Markets Rebound Amid Iran Peace Proposal and Trump Tariff Threat
U.S. Treasury yields rose modestly and the yield curve flattened on Friday as equities recovered, driven by Iran's fresh peace proposal and President Trump's threat of 25% tariffs on EU autos. The move reflects investors balancing geopolitical risk with a...
S&P 500 Hits 7,209 as AI Earnings Drive Record April Gains
The S&P 500 closed April at a fresh all‑time high of 7,209, the Dow Jones rose 790 points, and the Nasdaq hit record levels, marking the strongest monthly rally since November 2020. The surge was powered by blockbuster earnings from AI‑centric...
Will the Next Fed Chairman Be More Compliant With Trump?
Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor and Trump ally, is poised to become Federal Reserve chair. His background as a market‑fixer during the 2008 crisis and ties to Republican circles contrast with his hawkish stance on inflation. Warsh has pledged...
Consumer Vibes Two Months Into the War
Consumer confidence has deteriorated sharply two months into the war, with Gallup's poll falling to its lowest level since early 2020. The University of Michigan and Conference Board indices also dropped sharply before stabilizing, mirroring the NBER‑defined recession troughs shown...
Historic Government Shutdown Finally Ends, but FY27 Funding Deadline Looms
The 76‑day partial shutdown of the federal government ended on April 30 when President Trump signed a Department of Homeland Security funding bill, restoring cash flow to most DHS components through September 30. Agencies such as TSA, FEMA, the Coast Guard, the...
US Inflation Jumps 0.7% in March, Annual Rate Hits 3.5% Amid Iran War Gasoline Surge
U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rose 0.7% in March, pushing the annual rate to 3.5%, the fastest increase since May 2023. The surge was driven by a 24.1% jump in gasoline prices after the Iran war disrupted oil supplies,...
Fed Split Signals Market Uncertainty, Not Certainty
The Fed held 3.50–3.75% on 2026-04-29… and it was an 8–4 vote. Four dissents. When policy is split like that, “certainty” in markets is a fantasy. VIX at 18.02 is the tell. Silence isn’t safety. It’s complacency. markets
The Outbreak of Warsh
The episode examines the revival of Gulf public bond issuance after a two‑month war‑induced pause, highlighted by Emirates NBD’s $750 million AT1 bond that priced at 6.25% and attracted a $2 billion order book with roughly 24% international demand. Analysts discuss why...
GDP, Personal Income and Other Business Cycle Indicators as of May Day
U.S. real GDP expanded at a 2% annual rate in the Q1 2026 advance estimate, outpacing many forecasts. Real personal income, excluding government transfers, held steady, indicating limited wage‑driven demand. Meanwhile, alternative gauges such as CPI‑deflated retail sales and freight‑service...
Manufacturing Expands for Fourth Straight Month in April as Prices Surge and Hiring Lags
The Institute for Supply Management reported a PMI of 52.7 for April, matching March and marking the fourth consecutive month of manufacturing expansion. New orders rose to 54.1 while production growth slowed and employment fell to a 46.4 index, extending...
Asian Markets Edge Higher as Oil Holds Near $111; Traders Brace for Fed and Earnings
Asian stock indexes nudged higher while Brent crude steadied above $111 as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s rate decision. Credit Agricole announced a €800 million ($860 million) share buy‑back, and Darling Ingredients reported a 2.3% rise in its stock after a strong...
Powell Holds Rates Steady as Iran War Fuels Uncertainty, Markets React Lightly
In his last press conference as Fed Chair, Jerome Powell left the benchmark rate unchanged and warned that the Iran war adds to economic uncertainty. Investors took the news in stride, with the S&P 500 edging up 0.04% and bond...
Freddie Mac Says 30‑yr Mortgage Rate Climbs to 6.30% as Middle East Tensions Lift Bond Yields
Freddie Mac announced the national average 30‑year fixed mortgage rate rose 7 basis points to 6.30% and the 15‑year rate to 5.64% amid heightened Middle‑East conflict. The jump reflects pressure on Treasury yields, underscoring the bond market’s sensitivity to geopolitical...
Foreign Direct Investment Adds 33K Jobs Across California
Foreign direct investment in California rose in 2025, with 19,717 foreign‑owned enterprises supporting 847,245 jobs and paying roughly $96.2 billion in wages. The sector added 33,143 jobs compared with the previous year. Japan reclaimed the top spot, backing 130,008 jobs across...
Tech Rally Defies Stagflation as ISM Stalls
Basically, the call wall (SPX $7200 was ceiling/now floor) keeps getting rolled up as AI/Tech/Memory names beat, while the real economy enters stagflation. US APRIL ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX UNCHANGED AT 52.7; EST. 53.2 US ISM MFG PRICES RISE TO 84.6, HIGHEST SINCE...
AI Drives Nearly Half of Recent GDP Growth
Per @sonusvarghese, over the past 5 quarters GDP has averaged 2.0%. 0.90% of that (so 45%) has come from AI hardware/software spending. Wow. https://t.co/aiia8rSNZ2
ADP Payrolls Firm; Jobless Claims Hit 1969 Low
Firm ADP weekly payrolls, lowest Initial Claims since 1969... we'll find out next Friday if the labor market held up in April https://t.co/XRYrs03w6u
US Stocks Beat Gold as Inflation Hedge
“The best hedge against inflation has historically been US equities:” GS’s Mossavar-Rahmani. Gold isn’t a good hedge for inflation or deflation “so the idea that gold is something you need to have in your portfolio is something we totally disagree...
Labor Force Participation Drop Reveals Hidden Joblessness Crisis
This is why you shouldn’t pay any attention to the unemployment rate. It doesn’t count people who have given up looking for work or dropped out of the labor force. The scariest chart is the chart that shows the labor force...
Jackson Hole Speech Marks Most Hawkish Remarks Yet
His speech at Jackson Hole that year is the most hawkish speech in the entire corpus IIRC
Fedlock's Hawkishness Score Climbs Sharply with Recent Statements
As discussed below, Fedlock's aggregate hawkishness score continues to rise noticeably, with the latest communication from Kashkari, Powell, and Hammack all registering high relative to their recent comms https://t.co/b7k8lndodx
Unemployment Risks May Prompt Fed Rate Hike
BNP PARIBAS: “.. downside risks to the unemployment rate may be underappreciated. This brings with it a growing tail risk that the Fed could consider hiking rates later this year.” https://t.co/ax6DWAd2eV
Miran’s Exit Leaves Fed with No Remaining Doves
Interesting chart, although there is some hard-to-quantify nuance regarding how dovish/hawkish each individual member truly is.
Historic LEI/CEI Low Signals Recession, Cyclicals Set to Crash
The ratio of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) to Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI) showing the steepest decline in the entire history of the metric and now at a level typically seen during or just before recessions. Small/mid + cyclicals rip hard once...
Foreign Central Banks Stopped US Treasury Purchases; Domestic Funding Rises
Multiple things are simultaneously true: 1) Foreign public sector (central banks) are not buying US treasuries for over a decade, led by China. 2) Foreign private sector is still buying treasuries. 3) Foreign buying is not keeping up with issuance, so more is...