Know What's Happening in US Economy
Know What's Happening in US Economy
U.S. equities retreated on Tuesday as the S&P 500 slipped 0.4%, the Dow Jones fell 0.2% and the Nasdaq dropped 0.8% amid fresh missile strikes in the Middle East and contradictory statements from President Donald Trump and Tehran. The market turbulence was amplified by rising oil prices, higher Treasury yields and mixed futures activity.
The February 2026 jobs report revealed a modest 92,000‑person decline in U.S. payrolls, driven largely by government layoffs and the resolution of a nurses’ strike. While overall employment slipped, service and frontline positions remained stable, with quit rates climbing and...
Barclays predicts the European Central Bank will begin tightening as early as next month, with two rate hikes anticipated in 2024, driven by a renewed energy‑inflation shock stemming from the Middle East conflict. In contrast, the Federal Reserve is expected...
This is a really great divergent policy thought we should keep on our radar. If it comes to fruition, we could see a collapse in treasury yields. Fantastic work from @ericwallerstein ! “The solution: the Fed should expand FIMA access to sovereign wealth...
From my receipts catalog: Joe Biden’s last quarter in Office. Like Michael Jackson once sang, “Do you remember the time?” Unemployment frolm record low of 3.2%, Inflation falling, consumer confidence rising, retail sales up, stock market stable and rising, black unemploymentT...
Federal Reserve Governor Miran delivered a strongly dovish speech, arguing that inflation risks are muted despite a recent oil price surge. He cited measurement challenges and minimal impact on market inflation expectations, while warning that the labor market is on...
TLT lost $1.2B. HYG lost $623M. 10Y at 4.38% and rising. In a war. Who buys the bond dip? Foreign CBs may be selling to defend currencies vs DXY near 100. Pension funds face oil inflation that muddies the real yield math. Rate-cut traders...
Trump was elected on promises to help working Americans catch up. His policies are having the opposite effect. Together, his tariffs and “One Big Beautiful Bill” will decrease incomes for the poorest Americans and disproportionately benefit the highest earners. Source: Tax...
A MarketWatch analysis shows U.S. rent growth has slowed to its weakest pace in years, reducing pressure on the consumer‑price index. The deceleration comes as other inflation gauges, such as unit labor costs, remain elevated, leaving the Federal Reserve with...
Unemployment in the US is reaching critical levels. The average job search duration has risen to 25.7 weeks-the highest in four years. Since October 2023, the duration has increased by 6.3 weeks, marking the fastest growth since the COVID period. When it becomes...
For every $1 increase at the pump, the typical American household spends an extra $530 per year. Gas is costing Americans $300 million more a day than before the war. My latest newsletter, "This War Will Make You Poorer" (bit.ly/ThisWarWillMakeYouPoorer),...
The latest two‑year Treasury note auction attracted below‑average demand, sending the yield down four basis points to 3.86%. The softening appetite reflects waning safe‑haven appeal as investors weigh Middle‑East tensions and a mixed equity outlook.
The Federal Reserve, FDIC and OCC voted on March 19 to overhaul reserve‑requirement rules for the nation’s largest banks, cutting capital buffers by up to 7.8%. The change releases roughly $175 billion of excess equity, paving the way for more aggressive...
#Mortgage purchase application data remains positive year over year, but weekly demand declined last week. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #realestate #economics #mortgagerstes #chartdaddy
The escalating war with Iran is hitting the U.S. rental market just as spring home‑buying optimism waned. Higher energy prices and supply‑chain disruptions are pushing landlords to raise rents, while prospective buyers face tighter credit and lingering mortgage‑rate uncertainty. The...
Powell's Inflation Excuse – It's All BS! Powell: "Inflation was global so you can't blame us." Me: That's BS. Every central bank made the same mistake – cutting rates, printing money, flooding economies. That doesn't excuse the Fed. It proves they ALL...
The U.S. regulator’s latest proposal to ease capital adequacy rules for the nation’s largest banks marks a reversal of post‑2008 reforms aimed at curbing systemic risk. Critics argue the move weakens loss‑absorbing buffers, reviving the “too‑big‑to‑fail” dynamic that forces taxpayers...
Gallup's latest quarterly survey reveals that just 28% of American workers think now is a good time to find a quality job, a 42‑point plunge from mid‑2022. The shift comes despite low unemployment, highlighting a growing disconnect between headline labor...
Since 2017, most household expenses have surged—groceries up 32%, electricity 45%, car insurance nearly doubled—yet wireless services have become cheaper. The BLS wireless telephone services index fell 10.4% from 51.7 in Q1 2017 to 46.3 in Q3 2025, delivering faster data and...
The webcast examines Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s nominee to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and his likely dovish stance under presidential pressure. It models three possible durations of the Iran conflict to gauge their impact on monetary policy under Warsh...
The U.S. import price index jumped 1.3% month‑over‑month in February, the strongest gain since March 2022, driven by a 3.8% rise in fuel imports and a 1.1% increase in non‑fuel goods. Capital goods such as computers and industrial machinery posted...
The education and health services sector has accounted for 109% of private-sector job creation since January 2025. via ADP
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate today: 6.48% Same day last year: 6.80% -------------------- 10-year Treasury yield: 4.34% Spread today: 214 bps
Walmart said its Q4 2026 earnings showed a surge in shoppers earning over $100,000 – now 17% of that group shop there, up from under 15% in 2021 – while households below $50,000 remain squeezed. The mix shift could reshape...
Once I got started on this piece, the numbers started talking to me, and by the end they were screaming. So I feel like I've got to share it with you: The Federal Employee Crisis Nobody's Talking About. https://t.co/6rdnuvxTW9
National average gas prices are now within cents of the pivotal $4-per-gallon threshold, which many elected officials would prefer to avoid in a midterm election year. https://t.co/Ow36WJehg7
Morgan Stanley issued a stark research note warning that a hawkish Federal Reserve, rather than economic weakness, now poses the greatest risk to markets. The bank says investors are underestimating the Fed's inflation‑first stance after the March 18 FOMC held...
GS: We estimate that the core PCE price index rose 0.32% in February (vs. 0.31% previously), corresponding to a YoY rate of +2.93%. https://t.co/qdzutjc5RO
TEN TRILLION DOLLARS of existing US gov’t debt needs to be refinanced in the next 12 months. This spells more trouble for the out-of-control federal budget in which net interest expense already accounts for 14% of federal spending and is growing...
UK inflation held steady in February 2026, with the consumer price index unchanged at 3% and CPIH at 3.2%, while the retail price index slipped to 3.6%. The ongoing US‑Israeli war with Iran has sparked an energy crisis deemed worse...
10Y yields at 4.38% and RISING during risk-off. That's not the flight-to-safety playbook. That's a regime change. $TLT $SPY $GLD https://t.co/nCaYnxlGaO
Looks like exporters forgot to eat Trump's tariffs, import prices rose 1.1% in February and 2.5% year-over-year https://t.co/3UkarMgRx7
Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for a U.S. recession in 2026 to a 30% probability, up from 25%, citing a confluence of geopolitical tension, higher oil prices and waning fiscal support. The revised outlook is prompting corporations to tighten budgets...
10-Year Yield Holds Uptrend as Inflation Nowcast Accelerates during #Quad3 The bond market isn’t buying the narrative. 📉📊 📈 10Y still making higher highs/lows 📊 Range: 4.20–4.43%
“I’m concerned recession risks are uncomfortably high and on the rise,” said @Markzandi “Recession is a real threat here.” https://t.co/rhvcxMLgtd
The U.S. Treasury auctioned $69 bn of two‑year notes on March 24, posting a high yield of 3.936% and a bid‑to‑cover ratio of 2.44, well under the ten‑auction average of 2.62. The soft demand underscores growing investor caution amid rising yields...
Wild swings in the US quarterly current account deficit over the course of 2025 -- from close to 6 pp of GDP in q1 to well under 3% of GDP in q4 ... 1/ https://t.co/2EuT5nM3jZ
UST 5y auction will be interesting after a nasty 2y yesterday. Some news cross-currents may have affected clean bidding for 2s which should be a factor for 5s today as well. Also more of a concession would be...
The U.S. Treasury Department has assumed responsibility for the federal student loan portfolio previously managed by the Education Department, signaling a sweeping policy change. The move, announced on March 24, 2026, could reshape financing for higher‑education and workforce‑training programs and...
While the 10-year yield broke out of a short term range, the weekly chart below still shows bonds holding within a long triangle (in place since 2022). If it breaks, it will be a problem not only for bonds but...
Long yields broke out last week and finished the week at 4.39%. As I have written many times, nothing good happens above 4.5% when the risk-free rate is competitive with risky assets, as is now the case. https://t.co/mq0q2S2nBU
The last time there was notable chatter about America entering a recession...it didn't happen...markets kept its steady climb... Will it be the same this time around? Vote here & we'll go through the poll results at the top of today's show...
Factory construction was down 15% over the last year, even before adjusting for inflation https://t.co/YNFjjiLWfV Reality hasn't heard about Trump's $18 trillion in investment coming into the country. Trump always says, "no one has seen anything like it," which is...
the @federalreserve has cut interest rates six times since Sep '244 and U.S. 10-year yields $TNX have risen from 3.7% to 4.4% since that cutting program began... https://t.co/EQHFpoQsIC
"US Import Prices Jump by Most in Nearly Four Years Ahead of Iran War" "Excluding petroleum, import costs advanced 1.2%, the most since January 2022 and driven by higher prices for capital goods and consumer merchandise excluding automobiles." https://t.co/0glmjMPmLR
The Fed Already Has What it Needs to Navigate Supply Shocks--my latest newsletter with cameo appearance by @amacker and awesome Don Kohn link from @darioperkins. https://t.co/ihDcQmi2WI https://t.co/jbXalR3zRA
The March 2026 US Treasury 2-year yield hit 3.93%, up sharply from 3.45% last month. This is the highest yield since May 2025. TRUMP’S TARIFF WAR AND WAR ON IRAN ARE RATTLING BOND MARKETS. https://t.co/TfJWZRALwu
This morning, the US BLS released nonfarm productivity data for Q4 2025. Q4 2025 growth was revised down to 1.8%, from 2.8%, and well below the 5.2% surge in Q3. FULL-YEAR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH SLOWED TO 2.1% IN 2025, DOWN FROM 3.0% IN...
The day the war started (Feb 28), Fed fund futures were pricing in 2.5 rate Fed CUTS for 2026. Now they are pricing in 0.2 of a Fed rate HIKE for the rest of the year. https://t.co/kZikoSqzqz
the writing has been on the wall... but still most will continue to scoff it off and kick the can down the road, as the politicians similarly do... The Treasury just declared the U.S. insolvent. The media missed it https://t.co/6xs6EPNFXr
