From Civilian To Military Economy: This Is What A Declining Empire's Economy Looks Like
The U.S. Census Bureau reported that March 2026 defense capital‑goods orders jumped 80% year‑over‑year, while non‑defense capital‑goods fell 1.2%, marking the sixth consecutive contraction. The Pentagon’s FY 2027 budget request now exceeds $2.5 trillion, and federal interest expense has crossed $1 trillion in the trailing twelve months. At the same time, the Fed has quietly resumed quantitative easing, pushing the M2 money supply to a multi‑year high. Analysts see these trends as the hallmark of a late‑stage empire shifting resources from civilian to military production.
Good Jobs Data Masks Stagflation Risk, Not Economic Doom
A “good” jobs report = “all clear.” The SP reaches a new high. Things are not as bad as a year ago. Tariffs not so bad The Iran war may not be so bad Fed can pass on a rate cut Stagflation is...
The Federal Government Must Issue More Debt than It Expected as Cash Flow Weakens, and ‘the Bond Market Is Shouting’
The Treasury Department now projects $189 bn of borrowing for the April‑June quarter, roughly $79 bn higher than its February outlook and $122 bn above the figure adjusted for the quarter’s opening cash balance. The uptick occurs despite the spring filing season’s usual...
The Federal Government Must Issue More Debt than It Expected as Cash Flow Weakens, and ‘the Bond Market Is Shouting’
The Treasury Department now projects $189 billion in borrowing for the April‑June quarter, $79 billion more than its February forecast and $122 billion higher after adjusting for the opening cash balance. Weaker cash flow reflects new tax breaks and up to $166 billion in...
Goldman Sachs Sends Warning in New U.S. Economic Report
Goldman Sachs released a new outlook on May 8 warning that U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation will linger near 3 percent through 2026, well above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target, driven by higher energy costs. The bank pushed back its forecast...
Fed Officials Signal Potential Rate Adjustments as AI-Driven Productivity Gains Persist
At the Hoover Institution Monetary Policy Conference, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Vice Chair Michelle Bowman, Governor Christopher Waller and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly examined a sustained 1‑point annual productivity boost tied to AI. Goolsbee warned that while...
Inflation Drumbeat Persists for Unnerved US Consumer
The Bloomberg consensus projects a 0.6% jump in the U.S. consumer price index for April, following March’s biggest monthly gain since 2022. Gasoline prices have surged more than 50% since the Iran‑related conflict began, now averaging $4.50 a gallon, adding...
Inflation Drumbeat Persists for Unnerved US Consumer
Bloomberg’s latest survey projects the U.S. consumer price index will climb 0.6% in April. The increase follows March’s biggest monthly gain since 2022, underscoring a renewed inflation surge. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the official data on Tuesday,...
MBS Buying May Not Significantly Lower Mortgage Rates
I wonder if these MBS purchases have kept mortgage rates lower than they otherwise would be. Would the 30-year fixed be ~6.75% today instead? Problem is other administration policies, e.g. tariffs, war, etc. basically absorb and offset any of the benefit.
Fed’s Rate‑Cut Outlook Dimmed by Strong April Jobs Gain
The Federal Reserve’s case for easing monetary policy weakened after the Labor Department reported 115,000 new jobs in April, while consumer‑price inflation held at 3.3%. Analysts say the data pushes the Fed toward a more hawkish stance ahead of the...
S&P 500 Hits 7,390 Record as Strong NFP Fuels Bullish Technical Momentum
The S&P 500 closed at 7,390 on May 7, a fresh all‑time high, after April non‑farm payrolls rose by 115,000, far outpacing the 65,000 consensus. Technical indicators—from a bullish RSI to a confirmed 1.618 Fibonacci breakout—show strong momentum, prompting short‑term...
US Treasury Yields Rise Ahead of Strong Payrolls, Reinforcing Steady Fed Outlook
U.S. Treasury yields edged higher ahead of the April jobs report, with the 10‑year benchmark reaching 4.36%. The robust payroll numbers and steady unemployment rate have sharpened market consensus that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady, keeping inflation the...
U.S. Jobs Surge Adds 115,000 Jobs, Boosting Early Wall Street Gains
The Labor Department reported 115,000 new jobs in April, far above the 63,000 forecast, while the unemployment rate held at 4.3%. Futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq pointed to a stronger open, lifting tech stocks and setting the stage...
America’s Debt Crisis Peaks: Credit, Mortgage, and National Liabilities
JUST IN: US credit card debt hit record high of $1.33 trillion. And foreclosure filings jump to 6-year high due to rising insurance, property taxes, and debt strain on homeowners. Meanwhile… US Household Debt = All time high US National Debt = All time...
30-Year US Treasury Yield Breaks 5% as Inflation Fears Surge
The yield on the benchmark 30‑year US Treasury bond briefly rose above 5% on Thursday, reviving concerns about persistent inflation and higher borrowing costs. Traders are divided between those who see the level as a buying opportunity and those who...
The Unsinkable U.S. Economy Cruises on, Despite Headwinds From the Iran W...
The U.S. economy continues to expand despite the geopolitical shock of the Iran‑Israel war. For the second straight month, payroll data showed job creation far exceeding Wall Street expectations, reinforcing the labor market’s strength. Core inflation remains subdued, and manufacturing...
The Unsinkable U.S. Economy Cruises on, Despite Headwinds From the Iran War
The U.S. economy continues to expand despite the geopolitical shock of the Iran‑Israel conflict. For the second month running, payrolls added far more jobs than analysts on Wall Street forecast, reinforcing a robust labor market. Core indicators such as manufacturing...
Introducing the ‘NACHO’ Trade: How Wall Street Is Betting on Higher Oil Prices and Persistent Inflation
Wall Street has coined “NACHO” (Not a Chance Hormuz Opens) to describe a trade that profits from higher oil prices and lingering inflation. The strategy pairs long exposure to oil‑linked assets with short positions in short‑term Treasuries, betting that the...
Week Ahead: Trump-Xi and US-China CPI
Investors are betting that the Middle East cease‑fire will hold, lifting risk assets as oil prices retreat. WTI slipped 7% to about $95 a barrel and Brent fell 6.6% to $101, reversing two weeks of gains. The week’s data focus...
Spirit Airlines Shuts Down After Bankruptcy, Threatening 17,000 Jobs
Spirit Airlines has ceased all flights and entered an orderly shutdown after a failed rescue effort, marking the first major U.S. carrier collapse in 25 years. The bankruptcy puts roughly 17,000 jobs, including about 14,000 employees, in jeopardy and leaves...
Week in Review: Big Oil Bets, Jobs and Tariffs
In this episode, Reuters reporters expose roughly $7 billion in coordinated oil futures trades that timed market moves around geopolitical events, prompting regulatory scrutiny. They also discuss President Trump's renewed tariff threats on EU autos and the legal pushback that limited...
European Stocks Slip as US‑Iran Strait Clash Sparks Market Divergence
European equity markets fell on Friday as fresh US‑Iran clashes in the Strait of Hormuz heightened geopolitical risk, while US indices surged to fresh highs on strong jobs data. The split underscores a growing divergence between European and American market...
U.S. Treasury Targets Over $2 Trillion Borrowing in FY 2026, Raising Fiscal Alarm
The U.S. Treasury is set to borrow over $2 trillion in fiscal year 2026, establishing a new baseline for deficits. The Office of Management and Budget projects a $2.06 trillion shortfall, while interest costs surge past $530 billion in six months, sparking concerns...
U.S. Treasury Yields Slip to 4.35% After April Jobs Beat Forecast
The Labor Department reported 115,000 jobs added in April, far above the 62,000 forecast, prompting the benchmark 10‑year Treasury yield to fall 3.8 basis points to 4.35%. The stronger‑than‑expected payrolls eased short‑term bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut, while...
US Credit Card
🇺🇸 US credit card debt reaches new all-time high of $1.33 trillion. USD dollar is garbage , buy $doge
Record Low Consumer Sentiment Reflects Widespread Economic Pessimism
US Consumer sentiment falls to its lowest on record, for the 2nd straight month. Meanwhile, 70% of Americans think the economy is getting worse, per FOX. The data isn’t lying.
The Bottom Line - Friday, May 8
The Bottom Line roundup on May 9, 2026 spotlights several market‑moving stories. Incoming Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s pick, pledges independence and hints at a policy shift, pulling investors’ focus to future rate moves. Meanwhile, equities showed mixed reactions as...
U.S. Q1 2026 GDP Grows 0.5% Annualized Amid Shutdown and Middle‑East Tensions
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that real GDP expanded at an annualized 0.5% in the first quarter of 2026, a steep deceleration from the 4.4% pace in the previous quarter. The slowdown reflects a 5.6% drop in government spending...
U.S. Nonfarm Productivity Climbs 2.9% YoY in Q1 2026, Marking 13th Straight Quarter of Growth
U.S. nonfarm business productivity increased 2.9% year‑over‑year in the first quarter of 2026, extending a streak of 13 straight quarters of positive growth. At the same time, workers’ compensation fell to a historic low of 54.1% of output, raising questions...
ULI Panel Calls for Ops‑First Strategy, Cautions Against Financial Engineering
At its 2026 Spring Meeting in Nashville, the Urban Land Institute’s panel of leading investors warned that the era of cheap debt is ending and urged a shift toward operational excellence. The panel cited a ULI forecast projecting 2% U.S....
Analysts Weigh AI Build‑out Surge Against Recession Risks Ahead of Jobs Report
Analysts are split on whether the AI investment surge can outweigh recessionary pressures as the next US jobs report approaches. The S&P 500 hit a fresh record, but AI‑exposed software stocks are down more than 15% while semiconductor names have...
Investors Have Worries About Trump’s Pick for Fed Chair. Should They?
President Donald Trump nominated former Fed governor Kevin Warsh as his next Federal Reserve chair, prompting a wave of investor anxiety about possible political meddling. Warsh told the Senate he would not act as a "human sock puppet," but markets...
AI Deflationary Shock Flattening Yield Curve Amid Oil Rise
One of the more interesting signals in the data right now is that the yield curve continues to flatten despite a significant increase in oil prices on a trailing three-month basis. Historically, in a more traditional economic cycle, an energy...
High‑non‑citizen Sub‑industries Drive Recent Job Gains
Great post from @mtkonczal. 1st, immigration: he finds 20% sub-industries with largest non-citizen % have led job gains since November. Supports my thesis a pickup in immigration could explain faster payroll vs household job growth (& higher breakeven)
J.P. Morgan Warns Market Inflation Fears Exceed Reality, 30‑Year Yields Top 5%
J.P. Morgan argues that investors are over‑reacting to inflation, a view that has driven 30‑year Treasury yields past the 5% mark. The firm notes headline CPI at 3.3% YoY and a Federal Reserve likely to stay on hold, underscoring a...
Private Sector Research Receives $150 B in 2024
I have no idea what impression you are under. I am aware of the data on private sector research, the BEA put it at $150 billion in 2024 https://t.co/JdUycxACHJ
Healthcare Adds 1.8 M Jobs; Other Sectors Lose 128 K
Insane stat: Healthcare and Social Assistance have added nearly 1.8 million private-sector jobs in the US since the end of 2023 while all of other industries combined have lost 127,800 jobs. https://t.co/LpZ31hL2fD
Fed Flags Overheated Markets as Top Stability Risk
The Federal Reserve’s latest Financial Stability Report warns that market froth remains the top risk to financial stability. Asset valuations, especially equities, stay at the high end of historical ranges while equity volatility has risen since the November report. Treasury...
Initial Claims Plummet Below Historical Seasonal Range
Initial Claims has broken sharply below the 2023-25 range for this time of year @augurinfinity https://t.co/8h7fMZGuVZ
Retail Sales Surge Masked by Inflation Effects
Big Johnson Redbook retail sales lately, but a chunk of the YoY gain is inflation @augurinfinity April Retail Sales next week from the Census Bureau.. watch the "real" numbers https://t.co/CMhuPDSMIQ
Why Is US Consumer Confidence at a Record Low?
The BBC World Business Report episode examines why US consumer confidence has plunged to a record low despite strong job growth and a booming stock market. Joanna Hsu of the University of Michigan explains that persistent high prices—especially surging gasoline...
Waller Warns Productivity Surge Could Raise Borrowing Costs
Fed's Waller: starts by trashing Goolsbee's model -- anticipated productivity will be associated with higher borrowing costs if 'everyone' scrambles to invest, acting as a dampener.
Goldman Delays Final Fed Cuts to Late 2026, Early 2027
“We are pushing back the final two Fed rate cuts in our forecast by one quarter to December 2026 and March 2027.” - Goldman
1990s Productivity Ambiguity Led Greenspan to Delay Rate Hikes
Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee: the productivity again in the 1990s was not clear in the data. Greenspan imputed it based on other data and held back raising rates. It was only clear with hindsight.
Fed Official Questions if Shock Is Temporary or Lasting
San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly: "in a shock, how do you know whether it's temporary or persistent? [...] I'm trying not to use the word 'transitory', but you know what it refers to" 🤷♂️
Fed Seeks Level Playing Field for Banks Vs. Non‑banks
Fed's Michelle Bowman: the regulatory environment has pushed credit to non-bank financial institutions banks. Proposed changes are aimed to have traditional banks better compete.
US Stock Market in Bubble Territory, Yield Spread Confirms
My view in @beincrypto on how the US stock market is OVERPRICED, OVERVALUED, and OVERHYPED: “My Bubble Detector says the US stock market is in bubble territory. So does the bond-stock yield spread. Buckle up.” https://t.co/EIcTSXkcsw
Prime‑age Male Labor Participation up, Overall Rate Misleading
Sigh. I fucking hate it when people treat labor force participation rate as an indicator of labor market strength. This is just AGING. The prime-age male labor force participation rate has RISEN. https://t.co/irkibPk59k
Fed Briefly Employed Tiered Reserves During 2008 Crisis
🚨 Fed actually used a tiered reserves system temporarily in 2008🚨 — Darrell Duffie @HooverInst monetary policy conference https://t.co/CPW11sBr1e
Regulators Block Bank Liquidity Requests, Scarce Reserves Inefficient
How to shrink the balance sheet? @DuffieDarrell Due to regulatory pressure, large banks have not come to the Fed to get liquidity. Making reserves scarce again would be 'massively inefficient and stupid' (referencing Fed's Chris Waller's recent speech)