The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) Increased in April

Why It Matters

The upward ETI suggests near‑term job growth, influencing monetary policy and corporate hiring strategies. It also highlights emerging labor‑market frictions that could affect future employment dynamics.

Key Takeaways

• ETI climbed to 105.77, its highest since early 2025.
• Consumer perception of job scarcity fell to 19.8%, lowest this year.
• Small firms reporting unfilled positions rose to 34%, a June‑2025 peak.
• Unemployment insurance claims dropped to 203,300, near historic lows.
• Involuntary part‑time share ticked up to 17.9%, above 2025 average.

Pulse Analysis

The Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index (ETI) posted a modest uptick in April, moving to 105.77 from 105.52 in March. As a composite gauge that blends eight forward‑looking labor metrics, the ETI is widely watched by economists and investors for its ability to foreshadow payroll growth. The April reading pushes the index above the 105‑point threshold that historically precedes a series of net‑job gains, suggesting that the U.S. labor market may be shifting away from the downward drift that characterized much of 2025.

The index’s rise was anchored by two contrasting consumer‑ and firm‑side signals. The share of respondents who said jobs were “hard to get” slipped to 19.8%, the lowest level since the start of the year, indicating improving confidence among job seekers. At the same time, the proportion of small firms reporting positions they could not fill climbed to 34%, the highest since June 2025, reflecting persistent skill gaps. Supporting the upward momentum, initial unemployment insurance claims fell to 203,300 and temporary‑help agencies recorded a fourth straight month of hiring gains, both adding positive weight to the ETI.

Despite the broadly positive reading, analysts caution that the labor market remains vulnerable to external shocks. Geopolitical tensions could dampen export‑driven manufacturing hiring, while accelerated AI adoption has already prompted layoff announcements in several technology firms. The modest rise in involuntary part‑time workers to 17.9% signals that some employers are still trimming hours to manage cost pressures. Policymakers and corporate strategists will likely monitor the ETI alongside wage‑growth data to gauge whether the current resilience can translate into sustained job creation in the second half of 2026.