HOLY SH*T!! New Data Shows The Recession Actually Start 8 Months Ago!?

Why It Matters

The convergence of falling real incomes, record‑low savings, and a worsening energy shock signals that the U.S. economy may already be in recession, prompting businesses and investors to reassess risk and liquidity strategies.

Key Takeaways

• BEA personal income data shows zero nominal growth since October 2025.
• Real personal income fell ~1% over six months, signaling recession.
• Savings rate dropped to 2.6%, lowest since 2022, indicating strain.
• CEO confidence fell to 47, below neutral, reflecting worsening outlook.
• Energy price shock compounds fragile economy, widening K‑shaped disparity.

Summary

The video argues that a recession likely began in October 2025, citing Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) personal‑income figures that have shown zero nominal growth since that month. It points out that real personal income, adjusted for inflation, has contracted roughly 1% over the past six months—a decline typically seen only in recessionary periods.

Key macro indicators reinforce the narrative: the personal savings rate fell to 2.6%, the lowest level since 2022, while the Bureau of Labor Statistics continues to report flat or modest job losses. Meanwhile, consumer sentiment is deteriorating as households dip into dwindling savings and tax refunds to sustain spending.

The hosts quote frontline observations—from retailers noting reduced gasoline purchases to Home Depot and Lowe’s reporting April cutbacks—and cite the Conference Board’s CEO confidence index, which dropped to 47, well below the neutral 50 mark. They frame the situation as a classic K‑shaped economy, where lower‑income groups are already in recession while higher‑income earners remain insulated, but risk being pulled down as the energy‑price shock persists.

If the trend continues, the combination of weak income growth, collapsing savings buffers, and sustained energy price pressure could push the recession deeper, affecting middle‑class consumers and eventually upper‑tier spenders. Investors and policymakers should monitor income‑adjusted metrics and corporate confidence as leading signals of further economic contraction.

Original Description

Did a recession strike the US economy starting in October? Not just the forgot how to grow kind we’ve been grappling with for the last several years, but the all-out, NBER-style, full-blown contraction. Take a look at the data and the charts in this video, let’s see what you think. And that data is coming from income series the NBER itself uses when it decides the recession question.

Eurodollar University's Conversation w/ Steve Van Metre

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?

That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.

Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CEOs Turn Pessimistic About US Economy as Supply Risks Mount

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-28/ceos-turn-pessimistic-about-us-economy-as-supply-risks-mount

https://www.eurodollar.university

Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

I’ll also be active on Bravais Social - a new AI-centered social network designed for professionals and knowledge workers. The platform aims to bring together a wider range of tools and functionalities tailored specifically for professional interaction, research, and knowledge exchange in one place.

You can find me here: https://bravais.social/profile/edu