Today's Currencies Pulse
RBI logs record $53.13B net dollar sale as rupee slides 9.5%
The Reserve Bank of India recorded its largest net dollar sale in at least 15 years, disposing of $53.13 billion in FY 26, more than double the $25.52 billion sold in FY 23. The rupee weakened about 9.5% against the dollar, prompting heavy RBI intervention in both spot and forward markets, where forward‑market net sales hit a historic negative $103.06 billion in March 2026.
Dow Jones Industrial Average Gains 200 Points as Fed Minutes Loom and Nvidia Rallies on Meta Deal
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 300 points, or 0.65%, as investors returned to equities ahead of the Federal Reserve’s January minutes. Nvidia surged over 2% after Meta announced an expanded AI‑chip partnership worth tens of billions, reinforcing Nvidia’s lead in data‑center hardware. Meanwhile, Palo Alto Networks’ shares plunged roughly 10% following a fiscal‑Q3 guidance miss, while Garmin and Wingstop delivered strong earnings beats that lifted their stocks. Gold reclaimed the $5,000 per ounce level as safe‑haven demand persisted amid mixed macro data.
Webinar: Why the Dollar’s 2026 Decline Will Be More Cyclical than Structural
Investors are questioning US asset allocations as the dollar begins 2026 on a weaker footing. A new ING webinar will examine whether the current sell‑off is driven by cyclical market dynamics rather than a deeper structural de‑dollarisation trend. Speakers will...
Five US Policy Shifts Could Reshape Financial Markets
The Trump administration is advancing five domestic policy initiatives that touch credit, housing, monetary policy, corporate governance, and digital‑asset regulation. Proposed credit reforms would tighten loan underwriting, while housing changes could modify the mortgage interest deduction. Monetary officials hint at...
The 'Ex-America' Trade Is Off to a Roaring Start in 2026
Global equities have surged ahead of the U.S. market in 2026, with the MSCI EAFE up roughly 8% and the MSCI ACWI ex‑U.S. gaining about 8.5% year‑to‑date, while the S&P 500 is down 0.5%. Goldman Sachs notes this is the widest...
Press Release: Millions in Losses Drive Return to FX Protection in 2026
MillTech’s Q4 2025 Corporate Hedging Monitor shows UK corporates lost an average £6.71 million and US firms $9.85 million in 2025 due to unhedged foreign‑exchange exposure. Eighty percent of surveyed firms reported losses, prompting a rebound in hedging activity as average hedge ratios...
Europe Is Squandering Its Leverage Over China
Europe is losing bargaining power with China as the continent’s growth stalls while Beijing posts a record trade surplus. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s upcoming China visit underscores the urgency, with Germany’s 2025 GDP expanding only 0.2% versus a $1.19 trillion Chinese surplus....
Dollar Leads as Markets Seek Guidance From Fed Minutes
The U.S. dollar edged higher as markets awaited the Fed’s January minutes, looking for signals on the timing of the next rate cut. In the United Kingdom, CPI eased to 3.0% year‑on‑year, reinforcing expectations of a BoE rate reduction in...
Isabel Schnabel: Made in Europe
In a February 2026 lecture, ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel argued that Europe’s narrative of decline is misleading. She highlighted the continent’s high quality of life, strong institutions, and social protections as foundations for future growth. Schnabel emphasized that...
China Quietly Amasses Dollar Reserves Despite Official Narrative
Anyone who trusts official Chinese reserve data is a fool. The blind spot in the official narrative about China "dropping the dollar" is China's continued SHADOW dollar reserve accumulation, which looks like the below chart👇 The big January increase in state banks'...
David Ramsden: The Evolution of the Bank's Approach to Resolution
Sir David Ramsden, Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking at the Bank of England, outlined how the regulator’s resolution framework has changed since the 2023 failures of Silicon Valley Bank UK and Credit Suisse. He emphasized a shift toward greater...
Rupee Rises 5 Paise to Close at 90.67 Against US Dollar
The Indian rupee edged higher, closing at a provisional 90.67 per U.S. dollar, up five paise on the day. The modest gain was driven by fresh foreign fund inflows and a buoyant domestic equity market, which saw the Sensex climb...
Piero Cipollone: Digital Euro
ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone outlined the digital euro roadmap, confirming that the current preparation phase began in November 2025 and a pilot is slated for mid‑2027. The ECB aims for a first issuance in 2029, contingent on EU legislators...
ECB and ONCE Foundation Launch Collaboration to Ensure Digital Euro Is Accessible for Everyone
The European Central Bank has signed a collaboration agreement with Spain’s ONCE Foundation to make the digital euro app universally accessible, especially for people with disabilities, older adults, and those with limited digital skills. The foundation will provide technical advice,...
Alberto Naudon: Chile's Economic Outlook
Alberto Naudon, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Chile, highlighted that 2025 delivered stronger‑than‑expected growth, with non‑mining activity expanding close to 3% and gross fixed capital formation rising about 7% driven by mining and energy projects. Inflation accelerated early...
Elliott Wave Update of USDCAD – February 18th, 2026
USDCAD is climbing as Canada’s latest inflation data came in below expectations, reviving expectations of further Bank of Canada rate cuts. The softer CPI reading narrows the interest‑rate gap with the United States, making the U.S. dollar more attractive and...
Elliott Wave Update of USDJPY – February 18th, 2026
USD/JPY edged higher this week as traders anticipate the Bank of Japan’s continued policy normalization. The pair’s modest rise reflects expectations of incremental BOJ rate hikes and a narrowing US‑Japan interest‑rate gap. An Elliott Wave update highlights a key resistance...
Elliott Wave Update of EURUSD – February 18th, 2026
The EUR/USD pair slipped modestly this week as markets anticipate Friday's core PCE inflation report. Traders are closely watching the hourly chart, which now displays a nascent corrective Elliott Wave formation. The update suggests the pair could test near‑term support...
Westpac: China Must Shift to Proactive Policy in 2026 to Sustain Growth
China met its official 5.0% GDP target in 2025, largely on the back of robust export growth to Asia, Europe and Latin America. Manufacturing investment, particularly in electric vehicles and electronics, remained resilient, while overall fixed‑asset investment fell 3.8% and...
Chinese and Indian Tourists to Boost Europe’s Travel Market Amid US Slowdown
The European Travel Commission forecasts a 6.2% rise in international arrivals to Europe this year, driven largely by a surge in Chinese and Indian tourists. Chinese visitor numbers are expected to jump 28% and Indian arrivals 9% compared with 2025,...
RBNZ Leave Cash Rate on Hold, as Expected
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept its official cash rate unchanged at 2.25%, matching market expectations. While inflation stays above the 2% target, slower wage growth and softened demand reduce immediate pressure for further hikes. The RBNZ modestly raised...
Trade Breakouts with One Candle Close, No Indicators
How to trade it: → Candle closes above prior session high — look long on the first pullback to that level. Old resistance becomes new support. → Candle closes below prior session low — look short on the retest. Old support becomes...
Only Close-Beyond Prior High/Low Candle Signals True Breakout
Stop watching every candle. Only ONE matters... Not the first candle. Not the biggest candle. The candle that CLOSES above or below the prior session high or low. That's the candle that changes everything. Here's why most traders get this wrong: They see price...
Westpac Leading Index Slows to Near-Flat, Signals Cooling Growth Momentum
Westpac’s Melbourne‑Institute Leading Index barely moved in January, posting a six‑month annualised gain of just +0.02% versus +0.44% in December. The slowdown reflects weakening consumer sentiment and a dip in dwelling approvals, while modest commodity price gains provided limited support....
Successor Must Be Independent, Pro‑Europe After Surprise Resignation
Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau says his successor must be independent and committed to Europe after his early resignation gave President Emmanuel Macron a surprise opportunity to pick the next central bank chief https://t.co/VVGP1D9Dj6 via @WHorobin https://t.co/rmqeTU4qJ7
USD Coils Near Key Levels, Breakout Imminent
US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Coils Between Key Levels – Breakout Looms https://t.co/CxUMkIN5mg $DXY Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/ILpuVkkqnw
Release of Guidance for the Australian Clearing and Settlement Facility Resolution Regime
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has released its Guidance on the Australian Clearing and Settlement (CS) Facility Resolution Regime, accompanied by a Response to Consultation that outlines stakeholder feedback. The Guidance clarifies how the RBA may exercise its crisis‑resolution...
EU Parliament Approves Digital Euro for All Transactions
EU Parliament Backs Digital Euro for Both Online and Offline Use - Fintech Schweiz Digital Finance News - FintechNewsCH https://t.co/mgf2DlIs9B
Dollar Holds Firm Despite Weak Conviction and Recent Lows
US Dollar is Mostly Firmer, amid Weak Conviction: The US dollar was sold to new session lows against several currency pairs late in the North American afternoon yesterday, but there has been little follow-through today. The greenback is firmer against…...
EU Capital Markets Reform Should Focus on Innovation Investment
The Bocconi Institute proposes six pragmatic reforms to close Europe’s “scale‑up gap” and boost venture‑capital financing for innovative firms. Using Dealroom data on 64,500 EU start‑ups, the report shows that VC investment in scale‑ups is under 10% of U.S. levels...
USD Rebounds but Short‑term Conviction Remains Weak
$USD recovered from the late sell-off in North America yesterday. It is trading firmer against most G10 currencies, but short-term participants seem to lack much conviction. Key US data and SCOTUS still lie ahead. See https://t.co/Ax3iZrTLT7 https://t.co/01M5ylxWt7
Markets Surge Higher After V‑Shape Recovery—Implications Ahead
The markets are extending higher after yesterday's V-shaped recovery - here's what it means 👇
Exclusive: Tiago Da Costa Cardoso Returns to INFINOX as Commercial Director
Tiago da Costa Cardoso has rejoined INFINOX as Commercial Director, returning to the Dubai‑based broker after a stint at Exinity, HFM and XTB. His appointment follows INFINOX’s recent receipt of a UAE Capital Market Authority license, positioning the firm for...
ECB Yield Caps Mask Fiscal Fragility, Exit Bond Markets
ECB yield caps give the illusion of fiscal sustainability, but it's just an illusion. A real shock like Russia's invasion of Ukraine shows high-debt countries have no money to help Ukraine. For the sake of Europe, the ECB needs to...
Aging Populations Strain Southern Europe; ECB Must Relinquish Yield Caps
Once you reach 60, your conditional life expectancy is another 20+ years. Problem in Southern Europe is that relatively few people work, so population aging becomes very expensive for the state. That only gets fixed if the ECB steps back...
CME Group Fines, Suspends Broker for Allegedly Disclosing Non-Public Info Regarding Customer Orders
CME Group announced a $40,000 fine and a 30‑business‑day suspension for broker Kevin Milan after he disclosed material non‑public information about large crude oil futures orders in April‑May 2020. Milan shared order quantity, side, and contract months before the trades...
Egypt's M3 Surge Drives Inflation Beyond Target
Egypt's inflation rate is 11.9%/yr. Egypt's money supply (M3) is growing at 22.7%, ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate range from 13.1%/yr-17.1%/yr, consistent with hitting its inflation target range of 5%/yr-9%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/V2EApGpMCY
Markets May Slip as Fed Delays Rate Cuts
Will stock markets tip over amid worries about the Fed dragging its feet on rate cuts? FOMC meeting minutes are in focus. #stockmarkets #fed #fomc #dollar #macro #trading https://t.co/yYSQfOx27L
CFDs Broker GCI Trading Adds cTrader
Spotware has partnered with CFD broker GCI Trading to power its offering with the cTrader platform. The integration brings cTrader’s Traders First™ ethos, ultra‑fast execution and transparent trade lifecycle to GCI’s 24‑year‑old client base. GCI will now appear in the...
Fed Says AI Boom Won’t Prompt Rate Cuts
Fed governor Michael Barr's latest speech contains 1) A short part on the current policy outlook. The key guidance: "Based on current conditions and the data in hand, it will likely be appropriate to hold rates steady for some time." 2) A...
Business Inflation Expectations Return to Pre‑Pandemic Levels
Two different measures of business inflation expectations have essentially returned to pre-pandemic levels. The Atlanta Fed survey (dark line), which asks businesses how much they expect their own unit costs to change, is back at 2%—right where it was in 2019....
Breaking News: Canadian CPI Eases From 3-Month High, USD/CAD Extends Gain...
Canada’s annual CPI slipped to 2.3% in January 2026, easing from a three‑month peak of 2.4% and landing just below market forecasts. The trimmed‑mean core rate fell to 2.4%, the lowest level since April 2021, indicating waning underlying price pressure....
Iranian Rial Crashes as US‑Iran Nuclear Talks Begin
Today, US-Iran nuclear talks began in Geneva. As the talks start, the Iranian rial is in the tank. It has depreciated by over 43% against the dollar in the past year, making it THE SECOND WORST CURRENCY IN THE WORLD. https://t.co/PORIO6lGtc
Weekly Technical Outlook: DXY, GBP/USD, Gold, Bitcoin
DXY, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, Gold, Bitcoin, Oil Weekly Technical Outlook (webinar archive) https://t.co/nitfuFDsGb Asset Chaptered on YouTube: https://t.co/yidtEBNR4M
GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Short-Term Trend Turns Negative Below 210.00 Handle
GBP/JPY slipped below the 210.00 psychological level, trading around 207.28 and marking a near two‑month low. The decline follows weaker UK labour‑market data that has pushed market consensus toward two Bank of England rate cuts this year, with the first...
Chinese State Banks Boost FX Securities by $90B Monthly
Notable acceleration in the fx securities book of the Chinese state banks (And their reverse repo/ other funding of global financial institutions) in January -- consistent with the $90b monthly increase in the reported fx balance sheet https://t.co/PNDncW2w2s
Dollar Up Shows Unchanged Signal Amid Correlation Risk
If there was something else to "dig into", I would have. Dollar Up has its implied Correlation Risk today. I'll do what the signal does. It didn't change.
Conflicting Policies, Confused Investors, and the Weak Dollar
The United States continues to dominate global growth, driven by an AI-fueled expansion, yet its flagship currency is unusually weak. Markets are now pricing U.S. policy uncertainty on par with economies that lack a reserve currency. Conflicting fiscal and monetary...
Nowcast IQ Predicts US Growth Despite Market Pessimism
A few of our weekly inputs have come in for US growth. We continue to rebound hard cyclically. EURUSD down, US assets (soon) up, and ISM PMI towards 60 by summer. Our Nowcast IQ is telling a VERY contrarian story to...
EURUSD Retreats to Fib Level as Longs Surge
$EURUSD has pulled back from its failed run on 1.20 a few weeks back - aligned to a 38.2% Fib of the 2008 to 2022 bear wave. Meanwhile, net speculative futures positioning has jumped this past week to its heaviest net-long...
Dalio Warns CBDCs Erase Privacy, Enable Political Control
As @RayDalio, founder of the world's LARGEST hedge fund told @TuckerCarlson on central bank digital currencies: "There will be no privacy... all transactions will be known... and if you're politically disfavored, you could be shut off." https://t.co/3H4Lcz4ysb