Today's Currencies Pulse
RBI logs record $53.13B net dollar sale as rupee slides 9.5%
The Reserve Bank of India recorded its largest net dollar sale in at least 15 years, disposing of $53.13 billion in FY 26, more than double the $25.52 billion sold in FY 23. The rupee weakened about 9.5% against the dollar, prompting heavy RBI intervention in both spot and forward markets, where forward‑market net sales hit a historic negative $103.06 billion in March 2026.
Week Ahead: Does the Dollar Still Have Legs After the Tariff Ruling?
The U.S. Supreme Court invalidated President Trump's emergency authority to impose broad tariffs, prompting a modest sell‑off in the dollar despite its recent resilience. Dollar Index fell to just above 97.5, yet key technical levels held, while the euro recovered near $1.1740 and the yen slipped toward ¥154.75. Meanwhile, Asian currencies showed divergent moves: the yuan stayed in a narrow CNH6.88‑6.91 band ahead of the PBOC’s fix, and the Australian dollar hovered near A$0.71 amid expectations of another rate hike. Upcoming data releases—including U.S. Q4 GDP revisions, Eurozone CPI, and Chinese loan prime rates—will shape the next week’s FX landscape.
USD Stays Strong Despite Weak GDP and Tariffs
Outside of an occasional shock like around Liberation Day, it is not clear that the tariffs had much impact in the FX market. $USD held up fairly well in the face of the disappointing GDP and tariff ruling. What's...
Interview with Andrew Maguire of Kinesis
In this episode, Alasdair Macleod and Andrew Maguire of Kinesis dissect the ongoing silver squeeze, highlighting how massive short positions in China and robust physical demand are forcing paper markets to the brink. They explain the eastward shift of price...
Japan's Low Inflation Reflects Weak Money Supply Growth
Japan’s inflation rate comes in at 1.53%/yr in January, BELOW its 2%/yr target. JP’s money supply (M2) is growing at 1.56%/yr, WELL BELOW Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of~6.07%/yr, a rate consistent with JP’s 2%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY...
Europe Values Digital Euro at €1.3B Amid ECB Leadership Change Narrative Increase
The European Central Bank has earmarked €1.3 billion for the digital euro’s development and expects annual operating costs of €320 million from 2029. A pilot phase will begin with a call for expressions of interest in March 2026, running six weeks, followed by...
InvestingLive Americas Market News Wrap: Supreme Court Strikes Down Trump Tariffs
The U.S. Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s proposed Section 122 global tariff, removing a major trade escalation risk. Meanwhile, the advance estimate for Q4 GDP posted a 1.4% annual gain, well below the 3.0% consensus, while PCE inflation edged higher...
Southwark Crown Court Sentences Seven Influencers for Promotions of Unauthorized FX Trading Scheme
Southwark Crown Court sentenced seven social media influencers for promoting an unauthorised foreign exchange trading scheme. Each pleaded guilty to issuing unauthorised financial promotions and received fines ranging from £600 to £3,750, plus court costs, with two receiving discharges. The...
Fed's Logan: There Is Now More Inflation Uncertainty Due to Tariff Decision
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Logan warned that recent tariff decisions have heightened inflation uncertainty, casting doubt on a smooth path to the 2% target. While she remains confident that current policy tools are well‑positioned to address emerging risks, she expressed concern...
Tariff Slapdown: What the Markets Say
The U.S. Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s IEEPA tariffs, sending U.S. equities up about 0.7% and lifting the 10‑year Treasury yield back to roughly 4.10%. The decision removes a source of tariff‑derived revenue, reviving fiscal‑deficit concerns and creating upside...
Inflation‑Adjusted Dollar Down 10% Yet Remains Strong
The inflation adjusted dollar is only down ~ 10% v its q4 2024 high (it was driven up by the initial Trump trade). The inflation adjusted dollar is more or less back where it was in 2023 and...
Supreme Court Blocks Key Tariff Components, Administration Must Seek Alternatives
Update on US tariffs: The Supreme Court has ruled 6-3 against components of the administration's tariff policy. The ball is now in the administration’s court—specifically the willingness and ability to impose tariffs under alternative legal authorities. #economy #tariffs #markets
MetaQuotes to Release Build 5640 of MT5 Platform
MetaQuotes will roll out build 5640 of its MetaTrader 5 platform on February 20, 2026. The update refines the dark interface theme, adjusting background, tab and scrollbar colours for a more cohesive visual experience. It adds Markdown support in MetaEditor, allowing developers to document...
Weak US Data, Traders Brace for Geopolitical Risk
US GDP, PCE comes in weaker, why no market reaction? Stocks remain lower. Gold is pushing higher. The dollar remains firm. Problem is - Traders are pricing in risk. With growing fears of a potential conflict over the weekend, positions are being...
Core PCE Inflation Ends Year Elevated, Near 3%
A strong finish to the year for core PCE inflation. And not "strong" in a good way. Annual growth rates. 1 month: 4.3% 3 months: 3.1% 6 months: 2.9% 12 months: 3.0%
Weekend Reading and MB Media Appearances
The MacroBusiness weekend briefing spotlights a series of global and domestic macro developments. In the United States, the Federal Reserve injected $18.5 billion of liquidity, complied with a White House‑requested rate check, and saw sub‑prime unsecured loan balances hit record levels...
Recently Boring Nvidia Reports Next Week. Did We Just See German Green Shoots?
In this episode, Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy examines the stark divergence between the US equity market, which remains highly dispersed and volatile, and Europe’s rally driven by record inflows. He highlights the lingering uncertainty in...
FX Daily: EUR/USD Can Fall to 1.16 on Further Iran Escalation
Rising US‑Iran tensions are boosting the dollar as oil prices climb, reviving its safe‑haven appeal. The market now assigns a 60% probability to a US strike on Iran, which could lift Brent to $75‑76 and push EUR/USD down toward 1.16....
Dollar Firm as Iran Tensions Lift Oil, Markets Turn Cautious
The U.S. dollar stayed firm in quiet Asian markets while heightened Iran‑U.S. tensions pushed WTI crude above $67, its highest level since last August. Gold and silver edged higher but lacked sustained buying, reflecting selective hedging. Meanwhile, the UK reported...
IFOREX IPO Prospectus Details: Revenues $49M, EBITDA $4M
iFOREX listed on the London Stock Exchange at a £43.3 million valuation, equating to roughly 1.1× 2025 revenue and 19.4× earnings. The broker reported $55.1 million revenue and $3.0 million profit for the twelve months to June 2025, down sharply from its 2022 peak....
Fed Governor Reveals Hidden Dollar Liquidity and Stablecoin Strategies
THREAD 🧵I know everyone is very excited about aliens this morning, but I ask you, is it really as exciting as super wonky insights on dollar liquidity plumbing, Federal Reserve balance sheet policy, and stablecoin statecraft? I think not. I...
Dollar Stays King, No Signs of Dethronement
My take on the US dollar: "The DOLLAR IS KING, and it's going to REMAIN KING. It's hard to knock a king off his throne." https://t.co/txOJ9KZ8Qw
Digital Euros and Liquidity Backstops Won’t Dent Dollar Dominance, Says Fed’s Miran
European policymakers are increasingly exploring euro‑denominated stablecoins as a tool to counterbalance the U.S. dollar’s global reach. Federal Reserve official Stephen Miran, however, argues that the dollar’s dominance will persist despite these digital euro initiatives. He points to the depth...
Argentina's 32% Inflation Fueled by Runaway Money Growth
Argentina’s inflation comes in at a RED HOT 32.4%/yr. NO SURPRISE. AR’s money supply (M3) is growing at 38.7%/yr. That's WELL ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 9.8%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its 5%/yr inflation target. INFLATION = PRES. MILEI'S ACHILLES HEEL....
Silver Near 10‑Month Streak Amid $2T Liquidations
$2 trillion in forced liquidation blamed on chinese traders, margin hikes & Warsh pick, silver is 33 cents away from completing its 10th consecutive monthly candle (if it were monthend) #forex #XAUUSD #XAGUSD https://t.co/SOjpd04sAO
Could Medical Care Help Cure China’s Services Trade Deficit?
China’s medical tourism is gaining traction as foreign patients praise rapid, affordable care in megacities like Shanghai and Beijing. While the absolute number of inbound patients remains modest, industry insiders see a growing pipeline driven by visa‑free entry, expanding international...
Instant USD‑to‑BRL Transfers Powered by Claude AI
Demo Friday: realtime @claudeai assisted 🇺🇸 USD → 🇧🇷 BRL in seconds using @Lightspark Grid. Magic money movement available to everyone and in 60+ countries. We recorded this in one shot. So easy. https://t.co/6tOqsVxo9R
Supreme Court Ruling Won’t Boost Dollar Amid Growing Policy Chaos
The rollout of reciprocal tariffs last April caused an alarming and sharp fall in the Dollar, so why isn't today's Supreme Court ruling causing the Dollar to rise? The April fall in the Dollar was about policy chaos in DC,...
Rupee Declines 27 Paise to 90.95 Against US Dollar in Early Trade
The Indian rupee slipped to 90.95 per U.S. dollar in early Friday trade, down 27 paise from its previous close. The decline was driven by a firmer dollar, higher Brent crude at $71.77 a barrel, and escalating U.S.-Iran tensions. Domestic...
GBP/USD Breaks Range Lows, 200‑DMA Test Ahead
British Pound Short-term Outlook: GBP/USD Breaks Range Lows – Can 200DMA Hold? https://t.co/yX3huN7zHS Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/ZKGEjVWqUH
Core PCE Near Target; Fed Cuts Still Unlikely
Q4/Q4 core PCE inflation was 2.9% last year (vs. 3.0% in 2024). Trump's statement on the GDP report includes a parenthetical jab at the Fed chair, but there's not much of anything in this report that tells the Fed it...
Global Market | Japan’s Tightening Cycle Could Redraw the Map of Global Market Liquidity
The Bank of Japan has ended its ultra‑easy stance, pushing policy rates to the highest level in decades and pricing in another hike. Higher domestic yields are likely to trigger repatriation of Japanese savings, cutting the flow of low‑cost funding...
US Underlying Domestic Demand Grew 2.4% in Q4
US GDP: A gauge of underlying domestic demand—real final sales to private domestic purchasers (GDP less inventory change, net exports, and government spending)—grew at a 2.4% annualized rate in Q4 https://t.co/XefZvVp18v
Inflation Surges, Growth Slumps: White House Economist Stumbles
Higher than expected inflation and lower than expected growth. what an ugly day for white house chief economist hassett and Trump narrative. Do not worry, CPI is out next week and that's easier to manipulate.
Goldman: Gold to Grind Higher to $5,400/Oz by End-2026 on Strong Demand
Goldman Sachs projects gold prices to climb to $5,400 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven primarily by renewed central‑bank buying and modest private‑investor inflows linked to Federal Reserve rate cuts. The forecast assumes a conservative base case with...
Q4 GDP Misses, Core Inflation Surges Above Forecast
Q4 GDP prints at 1.4% vs expected 3% - Previously 4.4% December Core PCE at 3.0% vs Expected 2.9% - Previously 2.8% y/y Core PCE 0.4% m/m vs Expected 0.3% - Previously 0.2%
Strong US Payrolls Can Depress Dollar, Boost Euro
On Aug. 3, 2012, Goldman put out a trade recommendation to go long Euro. The next day was US payrolls, which were stronger than expected. That caused Euro to jump and USD to fall. An example that strong US data...
NZD, AUD Fall as RBNZ Says Inflation Returning to Target, No Preset Path
The New Zealand and Australian dollars slipped in Asian trade after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand signaled that inflation is already back within its 2% target band and is expected to stay there for the next year. Governor Adrian Breman emphasized that...
Dollar Holds Firm Amid Looming Tariff Decision and US Data
Tariff Decision Day?: The US dollar is trading mostly firmer but quietly in what could be a volatile North American session. It is not just about the US data, of which there is plenty—including the PCE deflator and the first...
Strong US Data Must Decouple to Trigger Dollar Decline
The US is outgrowing everyone else and that'll stay that way into this year's midterms. So, for the Dollar to fall, you need a correlation break whereby strong US data cause USD to fall. This is how the Dollar traded...
USD Gains on Strong US Data Unlikely to Last; Policy Uncertainty, Political Risks to Cap
MUFG’s Derek Halpenny says the U.S. dollar’s recent rally, sparked by stronger‑than‑expected durable‑goods, housing and industrial production data and hawkish Fed minutes, is unlikely to be sustained. While the minutes hinted at a cautious stance on further rate cuts, Halpenny...
USD Firming Ahead of Data, SCOTUS Tariff Ruling
$USD enjoys a firmer tone ahead of US data and possible SCOTUS decision on POTUS use of emergency powers to levy broad tariffs. Mkt tensions over possible US-Iran conflict seems to have eased for the moment but have not...
December PCE Inflation Hits Multi‑Year Highs
Forecasters expect PCE inflation (core and headline) was 0.37% in December (4.5% annualized rate). This would push up the core PCE index to 3.0% over 12 months, the highest since February 2025 Headline PCE is estimated at 2.9%, the highest since March...
Aussie Flash PMI Cools, RBA Still Hot
Australia’s flash PMI for February showed a deceleration, with output and new orders slipping across manufacturing and services after a vigorous start to the year. Despite the slowdown, business sentiment stayed upbeat, and employment rose sharply as firms added staff...
IMF Estimates Chinese Yuan Undervalued by Roughly 19%
Just how undervalued is the Chinese yuan -- the IMF (via the Economist) just revised its estimate up to 19% (plus or minus 4%) 1/many https://t.co/IJ4Z1SmGIq
Rising PMI Could Spark Market Melt‑Down, Delay Fed Cuts
Will the stock market melt down if the US economy heats up, banishing traders' hopes for Fed rate cuts? All eyes turn to PMI data to find out. #stockmarkets #USD #fed #pmi #economy #interestrates #macro #trading https://t.co/fgEbuQrjnq
Shares of Local Oil Explorers Surge on Supply Disruption Fears
Shares of Indian upstream explorers jumped as Brent crude breached $71 per barrel amid renewed US‑Iran tensions and temporary Strait of Hormuz closures. Oil India rose 5.2% and ONGC gained 3.6%, while downstream marketers HPCL and BPCL slipped nearly 5%...
IMF Warns Venezuela’s Economy and Humanitarian Situation Is ‘Quite Fragile’
The IMF warned that Venezuela’s economy and humanitarian situation remain “quite fragile,” citing triple‑digit inflation, a sharply depreciating currency and public debt at roughly 180 percent of GDP. The country has seen massive emigration, with about 8 million people leaving since 2014,...
Japan Inflation Slows to 1.5% in January, Core Measures Ease. What Will the BoJ Think?
Japan’s consumer price index slowed sharply in January, with headline inflation dropping to 1.5% year‑over‑year, the lowest level since March 2022 and below expectations. Core inflation excluding fresh food eased to 2.0% YoY, while the core‑core measure fell to 2.6%,...
Administered Price Inflation Continues to Run Wild
Government and regulatory decisions have driven administered prices—electricity, water, gas, council rates and public transport fares—up 7.55% in the last calendar year. This rise is roughly double the overall CPI inflation rate. Because administered prices are largely insulated from monetary...
91 Days, Two Rate Calls, Then Warsh Takes Over
Only 91 days and two more rate decisions (Mar 18 and Apr 29) before Jerome Powell's term as Fed Chair ends (May 15th). Then it is the Warsh era...