Today's Currencies Pulse
Rupee flat on hopes West Asia truce will hold
The Indian rupee held steady as markets priced in hopes that a West Asia truce would hold, hovering near ₹95.78 per dollar after slipping 8 paise in early trade. Traders kept a close eye on geopolitical developments while the currency remained largely unchanged.
Exclusive: Offshore CFDs Broker Zarvista Names Mohammed El Alaoui Essosse as CEO
Dubai‑based offshore CFD broker Zarvista Capital Markets has appointed Mohammed El Alaoui Essosse as its new chief executive officer, succeeding founder Jamsheer Thazhe Veettil. Essosse, who previously served as Head of Business Development and Director of Africa, has been with the firm for three years and brings senior sales experience from AUS Global and INFINOX in the MENA region. The change follows the departure of COO Jean‑Raphael Nahas last year and underscores a strategic push to expand in MENA and Asian markets. Zarvista operates from Dubai and Cyprus while being registered in Mwali and Mauritius.
BofA Survey Turns Ultra‑Bearish on Dollar, Go Long
The BofA fund manager survey has never been this bearish on the dollar. It is time to bite your lip and start being a lonely dollar long. I have a sample size of one here, arguably a sample size of...
RBA Holds Quarterly Trimmed Mean, Shorten AUD Duration
RBA probes monthly inflation gauges but sticks to quarterly trimmed mean; policy shift distant, volatile. Risk: noisy swings. Trade: shorten AUD duration until monthly series confirms trend. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
When Is the Spring Statement and What Might Be in It?
Chancellor Rachel Reeves will deliver the UK Spring Statement on 3 March 2026, presenting the latest Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) economic forecasts. The OBR outlook on growth, inflation, unemployment and public finances will be published after the speech via the...
Emerging Markets Still Offer Cheap Value Opportunities
Emerging markets portfolio manager Juan Torres on: * Where the Real Emerging Markets Value Is * If US Stocks Fall, What Happens to Emerging Markets? * Should You Hedge Emerging Markets Currency Risk? * Is Buying the Dip Still Smart? * Emerging Markets Outlook: Cheap or...
Neutral Rate Near 3% as Forecast‑Based Policy Debate Rises
Need to know where we are relative forecast-based policy setting. Neutral rate est at what it was a little less than 3%. The push to make policy on forecasts is something the administration’s nominee to replace Chair Powell has argued....
Australians Are Stuck in a Low Income Growth Trap
The OECD’s latest cross‑country data for Q3 2025 shows Australia posting the smallest rise in real per‑capita household disposable income among major English‑speaking economies over the past ten years. While other nations such as the United States, United Kingdom and Canada...
Walller Signals Potential Rate‑Cut Pause Amid Improving Data
Potential pivot by @federalreserve Gov Chris Walller - IF the next retail sales & labor data continue to show signs of further improvement, like we saw in Jan, then would support a pause in rate cuts after dissenting in Jan....
Waller Says March Rate Move Hinges on Feb Payroll
Fed governor Chris Waller conditions his support for a March cut (or hold) on the February payroll data due for release on March 6. “As things stand today, I rate these two possible outcomes as close to a coin flip.” https://t.co/8ompstwgY9 If...
Dollar 2026 Decline: More Cyclical than Structural
The dollar’s recent slide is viewed as a cyclical correction rather than a structural collapse, with the real trade‑weighted index still well above its long‑term average. Hedging activity is rising, with buy‑side hedge ratios projected to reach roughly 74% by...
Dollar's Dominance Will Persist Despite Trumpian Challenges
Former ECBer, Vitor Constancio, thinks the dollar debasement narrative is overstated. He says, yes, Trumpian policies are challenging the international monetary order, but they are not, as yet, leading it to crumble: "the dollar will continue to dominate for decades ahead". His...
Global Imbalances Drive International Payments Problems
A bit more on section 122 -- Adam Tooze noted that the simplest read of "international payments problems" is a problem of global imbalances manifest by large surpluses and large (U.S.) deficits 1/ https://t.co/86nmn36jP7
Crypto Exchange BTCC Adds TradFi CFDs
BTCC has launched BTCC TradFi, a cross‑market platform that lets users trade forex, commodities, indices and stocks using USDT as margin and settlement currency. The service builds on the exchange’s tokenized precious‑metal success, which generated $5.72 billion in 2025 trading volume...
Rupee's Fall Fuels 349% Surge in Gold Imports
The WEAKENING Indian rupee is triggering a GOLD RUSH. The rupee is DOWN 5.6% against the USD since the start of last year. In response, India’s gold imports has surged 349% during the past year. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/iGjJpyGh1p
Honored with Volcker Lifetime Award for Economic Policy
I’m honoured to receive the Paul A. Volcker Lifetime Achievement Award for Economic Policy. Paul Volcker’s personal conviction reshaped the trajectory of central banking in the US and around the world. Read my speech https://t.co/YcIx8y210A https://t.co/w1EZ0DOmzW
Rupee Support Tool Turns Pressure Point; $7 Billion NDF Maturities Come Due
The Reserve Bank of India relies on non‑deliverable forwards (NDFs) to support the rupee without draining reserves, but $7 billion of contracts are set to mature this week, creating rollover pressure. RBI’s total forward book stands at $62.3 billion, a size that...
China Swapped US Treasuries for Commodities via BRI
How China largely sold out of their net UST exposure yrs ago AND cornered critical minerals without ever impacting UST or commodity markets: Lend USDs along Belt & Road (BRI), repayable in either USD, CNY, or physical commodities This amounted to swapping...
Dollar's Reserve Role Extends to Growing Quasi‑Reserves
Indeed; an important point -- tho the dollar's reserve currency role is often taken to mean its role in private payments not just in official reserves. More importantly, there is a lot quasi-reserves floating around now --...
Japanese Yen Bounces on Takaichi Election Sweep, but Will It Last?
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party secured a landslide victory in the February 8 snap election, propelling Japanese equities to record highs. The political certainty sparked a yen rally, moving the currency from around ¥157 per dollar to the ¥152...
December PCE Inflation Hits 2.9%, Exceeding Fed Target
The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) rose from 2.8%/yr in November to 2.9%/yr in December. That’s ABOVE the FED’s inflation target of 2%/yr. INFLATION = THE GENIE THE FED JUST CAN'T PUT BACK IN THE BOTTLE. https://t.co/bTd3rr7JXl
Chile's Chicago Boy Reforms Outpace Argentina's Peso Woes
Chile basks in the afterglow of the free-market reforms put in place by Pinochet’s Chicago Boys (1973–1990). Argentina struggles under the weight of the Argentine peso. CHILE LEAVES ARGENTINA IN THE DUST. https://t.co/UyNgQY2kIL
The USD Has Continued Its Slide in Asia Trade. USD/JPY Is Down a Big Figure.
Asian currency markets saw the U.S. dollar dominate trade as a fresh tariff dispute intensified cross‑border transactions. The pressure translated into a sharp decline in USD/JPY, with the yen appreciating against the greenback. Trading was further constrained by a public...
DXY Net Longs Flip Back to Positive Territory
#DXY net longs make it to net longs territory for now https://t.co/HWXbhMOOqi #forex $FXE $UUP https://t.co/Emg2FxVwkD
USD Stays Flat Post‑SCOTUS, Defying Tariff‑Driven Drops
Big moves in currencies are made one small move at a time. The fact that USD didn't rally substantially after the SCOTUS decision is remarkable. After all, it fell a lot when reciprocal tariffs hit, so the fact that it...
The People's Bank of China Set Its Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) Today - No Change Is Expected.
The People’s Bank of China left its benchmark Loan Prime Rates unchanged at 3.00% for the one‑year and 3.50% for the five‑year tenor, marking the ninth straight month of stability. Market participants had widely priced in a hold, reflecting the...
Waller's March Cut Unlikely; FOMC Odds Near Zero
March cut may be a coin flip for Waller based on Feb payrolls, but it's not for the FOMC. Cut odds close to zero
Colombia, Chile, South Korea Lead 2026 Emerging Market Inflows
What are the hottest EMs in 2026? There are a handful of EMs that have monthly BoP flows. Those show a big rise in foreign investor inflows for Colombia (red), Chile (blue) and South Korea (purple). India (green) and Mexico...
Courting Global Tariffs as US GDP Takes a Hit
The episode surveys a week of global economic turbulence, highlighting AI’s expanding role in the Australian job market, rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East, and mixed central‑bank signals across major economies. Dr. Blair Chapman notes a surge in AI‑specific...
1970s Balance‑of‑Payments Deficit Returns Under Trump
Back to the 1970s again. History, Trump, the law and the balance of payments. Can the bofp be in deficit? Did a chartbook in response to the fascinating exchange between @Brad_Setser & @PhilWMagness https://t.co/ryYY7Z9OBm https://t.co/zySJwiEZN7
Dollar Holds Despite Weak GDP, Falters in Asia
When All is Said and Done in FX, Little has been Done: The US dollar was fairly resilient in the face of the softer than expected Q4 GDP reading and the Supreme Court’s tariff decision. However, it came under pressure...
FX Week in Review: IFOREX IPO, Plus500 Execs Sell, Prop Firm Launches Broker
iFOREX debuted on the London Stock Exchange with a prospectus showing $49 million in revenue and $4 million EBITDA, marking a significant milestone for the 20‑year‑old FX broker. Senior Plus500 executives sold more than $90 million of company stock, entering a 365‑day lock‑up...
USD Holds Steady Amid Volatility and Holiday Closures
Some volatility, yes, but net-net the $USD is little changed from the it settled at the end of last week. It was initially marked lower but is nearly flat now. Japan mkt were closed for a holiday, while a...
Mexico's 0.8% Growth Lags US, Marks EM Failure
In 2024 and 2025, Mexico grew at an annualized pace of 0.8%, even as the US grew at an annualized pace of 2.3% in those two years. Mexico's growth stagnation, which - outside of COVID - has now lasted since...
Bitcoin Sells Off as the Yen Surged Fast Enough to Trigger Cuts Across Risk Books
Bitcoin experienced a sharp sell‑off after the yen surged, prompting margin and VAR cuts across multi‑asset risk books. Japanese FX officials’ urgent language on February 12 signaled heightened intervention risk, accelerating the unwind of yen‑funded carry trades. The unwind cascaded...
Argentina's Dollar Peg Has Never Delivered Stability
For as long as I can remember, Argentina has tried to become credible and stable by pegging the Peso to the Dollar. The success rate of this strategy - in all the years it's been tried - is exactly ZERO....
Enter Trends at the Bottom, Reduce Risk Dramatically
→ Trends exist only 15-20% of the time → You never know how far a breakout will go → Your risk is almost never clearly defined Turn trading flips the script: → Enter at the pivot → Risk is small and measurable...
Iran Polymarket & Fed Odds
Polymarket’s prediction market shows a noticeable rise in the odds of a U.S. strike on Iran, signaling heightened geopolitical risk. At the same time, gold remains unusually flat, showing little enthusiasm despite the tension, while oil prices are edging higher....
Strong US Data Now Weakens, Not Strengthens, the Dollar
The Dollar used to rally on strong data, but that's no longer true. Recent examples are strong payrolls on Feb 11 or hot core PCE inflation on Feb 20. We're in the early stages of a regime change for USD,...
Discussing Economy, Trade, and Central Bank Independence
I had a good discussion with @MargBrennan of @FaceTheNation about the economy, trade, central bank independence and other topics. https://t.co/7S39jwcldt
Iran’s Rial Collapse Mirrors Lebanon’s Crisis, Driving Citizens to Bitcoin
The Iranian rial has collapsed in 2026, spurring hyperinflation and prompting middle‑class savers to flee the banking system. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have attracted billions of dollars, echoing Lebanon’s 2019‑2021 crisis where crypto became a financial lifeline. On‑chain data shows...
Erdogan's 2021 Governor Dismissal Triggers Endless Lira Decline
The last truly independent central bank Governor in Turkey was fired in March 2021. That sent the Lira into a devaluation spiral from which it's never recovered. It doesn't matter who the economic team is now. If Erdogan did this...
Trend Trading Fails: Trends Exist Only 15‑20% of Time
🔥 New Video: Turn Trading Beats Trend Trading Every Time 🚨 85% of traders are doing THIS wrong They say they love trend trading Here’s the truth👇 📉 Trends only exist 15–20% of the time The rest? Chop. Noise. Fakeouts. Flying blind on risk @Fxflow...
Newsquawk Week Ahead Highlights: 23rd-27th February 2026
The week ahead centers on Nvidia’s February 25 earnings, where analysts expect revenue to surpass $65 billion and margins to climb above 74 percent, reinforcing its AI leadership. Australian CPI data will test the Reserve Bank’s willingness to raise rates again after...
EUR/USD Slides to Key Support, Breakdown Risk Rising
Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Drops to Pivotal Support – Breakdown Risk Builds https://t.co/geZ18ZVnup $EURUSD Monthly & Weekly Charts https://t.co/jYZ8uLmgEG
Weaker Dollar Spurs Record Foreign Inflows
1. Chart in original post shows the weaker USD (DXY) gets, the more flows will move into USD assets...& DXY had biggest drop in 52 yrs in 1H25👇 2. So as long as DXY keeps falling 10-15%/yr, foreign** inflows will grow **37%...
Japan's Real Wages Poised to Grow After a Year of Decline
Japan’s real wages are set to move into positive territory in January 2026 after a year of decline, driven by a slowdown in CPI inflation to 2% YoY and a suite of government price‑relief measures. Tax cuts on gasoline, tuition‑free...
USD Stays Strong; “Global Reserve Asset” Rebrands Failure
For what its worth, the reason the term “Global Reserve Asset” has gained traction over last 5 yrs is bc those who previously said USD would lose “Global Reserve Currency” status had to pivot after getting everything they ever dreamed...
Europe Needs Independent Central Banks to Drive AI Growth
In my interview with @WSJ, I spoke about Europe’s economy, the importance of central bank independence, AI and more. Read my interview https://t.co/LEbflpU9tB https://t.co/KlfELnA179
Dollar Declines Despite Hot Inflation and SCOTUS Ruling
The Dollar yesterday fell back to its recent lows against EM, even though core PCE inflation came in hot and the SCOTUS decision should have lifted it. Regime change for USD is upon us. Things that ordinarily lift the Dollar...
Dollar's Decline Signals Shift; Reconsider Your Investments
Oh boy. “DOLLAR in DECLINE” “The U.S. currency has lost its dominance. What investors should do now.”