Today's Currencies Pulse
Rupee flat on hopes West Asia truce will hold
The Indian rupee held steady as markets priced in hopes that a West Asia truce would hold, hovering near ₹95.78 per dollar after slipping 8 paise in early trade. Traders kept a close eye on geopolitical developments while the currency remained largely unchanged.
FX Daily: Nvidia Earnings Could Be Big for FX
Ahead of Nvidia's earnings, analysts warn that a miss could trigger broader risk aversion, hitting the most exposed G10 currencies such as the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and Norwegian krone. The USD’s reaction will signal whether AI‑related concerns remain confined to the United States or spread globally. Meanwhile, the euro is trading in an overvalued zone despite modest price declines, and central banks in Hungary and Poland are moving dovishly, foreshadowing further rate cuts that could shape regional FX dynamics.
Elliott Wave Update of EURUSD – February 25th, 2026
EUR/USD has moved into positive territory this week, prompting Elliott Wave analysts to identify a decisive level that could confirm a transition from bearish to bullish dominance. The analysis highlights a key resistance break that may signal the bears relinquishing...
Structural Change—Canada at a Crossroads
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem warned that Canada faces deep structural shifts as U.S. protectionism, rapid AI adoption, and demographic aging reshape the economy. He noted the central bank kept its policy rate at 2¼ % while highlighting heightened uncertainty around...
Has U.S. Inflation Started Turning Higher Again?
U.S. tariff rates surged to an average of 13% in 2025, yet headline inflation fell to 2.7% year‑over‑year before rebounding in December. Companies initially absorbed tariff costs, but recent PCE data shows they are now passing them onto consumers, pushing...
FX Option Expiries for 25 February 10am New York Cut
The February 25 10 a.m. New York FX option expiry lists strike levels and notional exposure across major currency pairs. EUR/USD shows the largest notional at the 1.1900 strike with €5.09 billion, while AUD/USD aggregates over AUD 8 billion across four strikes. Market makers must hedge these...
CME Group U.S. Treasury OI Sets New Record of 36.3M Contracts
CME Group reported a record 36,328,151 open interest contracts in U.S. Treasury futures and options on February 19, surpassing its previous high from November 2025. The milestone spans the entire yield curve, with new peaks in 2‑year, 5‑year, 10‑year, and...
What Are the Main Events for Today?
The European session delivered two key data points: Germany’s preliminary Q4 GDP rose 0.3% quarter‑on‑quarter, beating expectations, and Eurozone CPI showed a 1.7% year‑on‑year headline increase with core inflation at 2.2%. Both releases are final figures that historically have limited...
Markets Misread Dovish BoJ as Bullish Amid Rate‑Driven Rally
so Japanese markets suffered deflation for decades at the hands of a dovish BoJ... and the markets have had a historic rally on the back of rising rates and yet somehow the market thinks dovish BoJ nominations is bullish... got it
Japan Govmt Nominates New BOJ Board Members as Rate-Hike Path Comes Into Focus
Japan’s government has nominated professor emeritus Toichiro Asada and law professor Ayano Sato to the Bank of Japan’s nine‑member monetary policy board, pending parliamentary approval. The appointments arrive as the BOJ exits its ultra‑easy stimulus regime and lifts rates to...
WSJ Dismisses Balance of Payments, Sparks Skepticism
Well, the WSJ oped page lost me with statement that the balance of payments is a non issue ... 1/2
Markets Teeter on Tariffs, Iran Tensions, Trump SOTU
Stocks & the dollar hang in the balance amid tariff chaos and possible war with Iran as President Trump delivers his State of the Union speech. Are the markets in trouble? #SOTU2026 #Trump #tariffs #Iran #market #stockmarkets #DOLLAR #Macro #Trading https://t.co/PVSRBaRIjl
What’s Next for Ukraine: Investment
Ukraine will emerge from the war burdened with massive debt, but experts Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Maurice Obstfeld argue that restructuring—potentially including outright forgiveness—is essential to attract private capital. They estimate a $40 billion annual investment gap, split between rebuilding destroyed assets,...
A Tale of Two Financial Centres: Brexit Uncertainty and the Fragility of Cross-Border Capital Flows
A new firm‑level study of Swiss‑UK capital linkages finds that the Brexit referendum’s surge in policy uncertainty sharply reduced short‑term debt flows from Swiss‑resident firms to the United Kingdom, while equity investments remained stable. The contraction is driven almost entirely...
The 0.7100 Hurdle: Key Factors Driving AUD/USD's Range-Bound Trade as CPI...
AUD/USD remains trapped in a tight 0.7040‑0.7070 range as traders weigh the Reserve Bank of Australia's 3.85% policy rate against looming Australian CPI data. The pair failed to break the 0.7100 resistance, keeping bullish momentum at bay despite a resilient...
Money Supply Surge Keeps Precious Metals Bull Market Early
The U.S. money supply has soared nearly 5x since 2000, pushing the cost of living significantly higher — yet most people still prefer dollars over gold & silver. That means the precious metals bull market is still very young,
UK Stablecoin Caps Threaten Global Digital Economy Competitiveness
Stablecoin rules in the UK are being finalized, and are at risk of preventing the UK from being globally competitive in the digital economy. For example, the Bank of England is proposing a cap on stablecoin holdings for individuals and businesses. The...
Monetary Policy Committee Policy Rate Likely to Remain Unchanged
The Bank of Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee is expected to leave its policy rate unchanged at 1.25% during Wednesday’s meeting, buoyed by a stronger‑than‑expected 2.5% year‑on‑year GDP growth in Q4 2025 and a clearer political environment after the election. Economists...
PBOC Buying $100B Monthly to Curb Yuan Surge
The mandarins at the PBOC are in a difficult spot -- a faster pace of CNY appreciation against the dollar has convinced Chinese exporters to bring funds back home, and driven the need to buy $100b a month (give or...
Australia CPI Expected to Point to Sticky Inflation, Supporting Hawkish Stance
Australia’s January consumer price index is expected to rise 3.7% year‑over‑year, a slight dip from December’s 3.8%. The forecast includes a Trimmed Mean CPI of 3.3% YoY, unchanged from the prior month, highlighting persistent core inflation. The Reserve Bank of...
Dollar Supported by a Weak Yen and Strength in US Consumer Confidence
The dollar index rose modestly as a two‑week low yen boosted USD/JPY and stronger US consumer confidence lifted the greenback. Dec S&P composite‑20 home‑price data also outperformed expectations, while a rally in the yuan limited gains. The euro slipped on...
App Spotlight: Plug&Play Currency Sync for Zoho CRM
Plug&Play Currency Sync for Zoho CRM now automates daily exchange‑rate updates, ensuring new deals, quotes and invoices use current rates while preserving historical values. The tool pulls rates overnight and allows up to two manual syncs per day, eliminating the...
Did Negative Interest Rates Work ?
The article reviews evidence that central banks which pushed policy rates slightly below zero—most notably in the euro area, Switzerland, Sweden, Denmark and Japan—generated additional economic stimulus without triggering major disruptions. Empirical observations show that corporate deposit and wholesale funding...
USD/JPY Price Forecast: Bullish Bias Builds Above 155.00 Support
USD/JPY rose to 155.70 on Tuesday, up 0.64% after hitting a daily high of 156.28. The move follows comments from Japan’s prime minister signaling caution on further BoJ rate hikes, which have kept yen pressure alive. Technically, the pair sits...
The European Central Bank’s Next President May Decide the Fate of the Digital Euro
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde highlighted the digital euro as a core part of her legacy, noting its progress from research to a live policy effort. The project is now in a "preparation phase" with technical design and pilot...
National Bank of Hungary Review: The Rate Cut Has Arrived, but What’s Next?
After 16 months of steady rates, the National Bank of Hungary cut its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 6.25% in February, aligning with broad market expectations. The central bank’s forward guidance remains data‑driven and open‑ended, prompting ING...
Yen Crashes as Dollar Rallies, Markets Brace for Volatility
🚨 Trump State of Union Tonight. The Yen Is Collapsing. Pay Attention Dollar surging across the board Yen crashed 1% overnight as Japan's PM fights the BOJ on rate hikes Dow broke below the 50 SMA for the first time this year -...
Chinese Banks Pivot From US Treasuries to Diversified Reserves
Last week, we published a report titled “How Is China Rewiring Its Trillion-Dollar Surplus?” in response to media reports that Chinese authorities have urged banks to curb their exposure to the US Treasury market. This regulatory signal is highly investment-relevant,...
PBO’s Migration Analysis Doesn’t Add Up
The Australian newspaper cited the Parliamentary Budget Office’s (PBO) budget tool to challenge One Nation’s proposal to cap visas at 130,000 annually and achieve net‑zero immigration. The PBO‑based analysis estimates a $100 billion loss in federal revenue over the next decade,...
Dollar May yet Benefit From Further US-Iran Geopolitical Escalation - BofA
Bank of America sees the U.S. dollar gaining strength if geopolitical tensions with Iran intensify. Rising odds—now 69%—of a U.S. military strike by June could push oil prices higher while global equities weaken, a combination that traditionally benefits the greenback....
Short EUR/USD Below 50‑Day SMA Target 1.1670
EUR/USD neutral; testing 50‑day SMA/61.8% fib at 1.1769. Momentum weak after brief post‑SCOTUS dollar selloff; tariff uncertainty persists. Insight: short below 50‑day SMA to 1.1670–1.1650. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
China’s USD Pullback Demands over $100B Monthly Liquidity
Setser: "$100b a month is a large sum, it had to go into a fairly liquid corner of the market". And of course if on top of this China really were reducing its exposure to USD assets, we would need more...
Japan Mulls Revising Liquidity-Support JGB Auctions to Ease Market Pressure - Report
Japan's Ministry of Finance is weighing changes to its liquidity‑enhancement auction framework for government bonds, aiming to ease supply pressure on the super‑long end of the curve. From April, the mid‑term bucket could be narrowed from a 5‑15.5‑year range to...
Dollar Weakness Shifts Next Bull Market Beyond America
The next bull market may not be American. Dollar weakness changes leadership. If the dollar is in a structural bear, global diversification stops being optional. Capital rotates. Narratives lag. Read the full framework: https://t.co/RJWIidZeAI @DynamicAlphaSol
Billions in FX Options Expire Tomorrow Across Major Currencies
Notable FX option expirations tomorrow: 2.9 bln euros at $1.18 $2.85 bln at JPY156 A$2.8 bln at $0.7000 and A$2.5 bln at $0.7100 $470 mln at CAD1.37 GBP450 mln at $1.3550 $1 bln MXN17.29-MXN17.30 Listed on DTCC https://t.co/bSx6eAhEKQ
Swiss Franc to Stay Favourable Amid Safe Haven Allure
The Swiss franc is consolidating its role as the premier safe‑haven currency, with EUR/CHF breaking below the 0.92 support level early this year. Analysts from RBC, Morgan Stanley and Credit Agricole argue that ongoing geopolitical tensions and weak economic data...
Redirect Chinese Savings to Gold to Preserve USD Dominance
“The goal is to keep the USD as the world's transaction rail without agreeing to absorb unlimited foreign savings into USTs” Exactly. Separating from China & re-shoring requires redirecting Chinese surpluses into a neutral reserve asset (gold)…and that requires 5-figure...
Venezuela's Bolivar Plummets 86%, Calls for Dollarization
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Venezuelan bolivar ranks as the WORLD'S WORST currency. The bolivar has depreciated by over 86% against the USD in the past year. VENEZUELA NEEDS DOLLARIZE NOW. https://t.co/HI0TlTBYyv
USD/CNY Drops to 2½-Year Low as Onshore Yuan Surges
The on‑shore yuan surged to a 2½‑year high as USD/CNY slipped below 6.90, reaching 6.8954. The People’s Bank of China posted a slightly firmer daily midpoint of 6.9414 and reduced the usual damping in the fixing process. This narrower gap...
Turkey's Core Current Account Deficit Surpasses Pre‑2018 Levels
Turkey's "core" current account deficit (blue) has widened back out to levels that exceed where it was before the 2018 "sudden stop" and the catastrophic post-COVID years. Turkey is back in the danger zone. Rebalancing can't happen with Erdogan in...
Yen Falls as Beijing Sanctions Hit Japanese Firms
Yen Slides on a Double Whammy: The US dollar is mostly slightly firmer against the most of the G10 currencies but largely confined to its recent ranges. The yen is the notable exception. Beijing announced it is sanctioning more Japanese...
PBOC Sets USD/ CNY Reference Rate for Today at 6.9414 (Vs. Estimate at 6.9249)
The People’s Bank of China set today’s USD/CNY reference rate at 6.9414, slightly above the 6.9249 market estimate. The central bank maintains a +/-2% trading band around this midpoint, allowing modest yuan fluctuations. In parallel, the PBOC injected 526 billion yuan...
Most Hedge Funds Bet Heavily on Shorting the Dollar
Almost all Hedge Fund types are exposed to Short Dollar. Some are massively Short. *Will they all be right? https://t.co/Uwzu1CzIdx
USD Steady as Japan Faces Beijing Pressure on JPY
The $USD is mostly little changed. The focus is on $JPY. Beijing stepped up export restrictions to ostensibly curb Tokyo's remilitarization and PM Takaichi reported pressed BOJ harder not to raise rates. See https://t.co/kOoSATxYUA https://t.co/1osffkrwvk
People's Bank of China Sets 1 and 5 Year Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) Unchanged
China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China, announced that both the 1‑year and 5‑year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) remain unchanged for the ninth consecutive month. The 1‑year LPR held at 3.45% while the 5‑year LPR stayed at 4.20%, reflecting...
Norway Central Bank Likely Pushes Rate Cut to Q3
Norway central bank seen delaying the next rate cut to the 3rd quarter https://t.co/DQxoj354TR via @ottummelas https://t.co/jKYdw66YUF
China May Pause Reserve Dedollarization if US Eases Taiwan Stance
So no more dedollarization of China's formal reserves if the US softens its Taiwan policy? Tis an option that China is at least considering per Lingling Wei and the WSJ 1/ https://t.co/365Y8wHJV4
The Sixth Jamaican 25-Basis Point Central Bank Interest Rate Cut Since August 2024
The Bank of Jamaica cut its policy rate to 5.50% from 5.75%, its sixth 25‑basis‑point reduction since August 2024 and the first cut in nine months. The move was driven by a milder‑than‑expected inflation impact from Hurricane Melissa, improved agricultural supply,...
Accelerating Trade Imbalances Will Deepen Global Tensions
Good PIIE paper by Tamim Bayoumi and Joseph E. Gagnon on the consequences of accelerating trade imbalances. They warn that trade tensions are likely to get worse, something I have been saying for years and continue to say. I don't...
China Buys FX as Yuan Rises to Curb Appreciation
A little more complicated -- China consistently buys more fx when the CNY is appreciating (whether for structural or cyclical reasons). Exports start converting, and controlling the pace of appreciation takes intervention. Subtle point, but clear in the data
China’s $100B/Month FX Buying Blocks Dollar Diversification
Me, in the Financial Times -- On the surge in China's intervention, and the impossibility of diversifying away from dollar assets/ Treasuries when the state banks are buying $100b a month in FX 1/ https://t.co/Pc78czuld9