Today's Currencies Pulse
RBI logs record $53.13B net dollar sale as rupee slides 9.5%
The Reserve Bank of India recorded its largest net dollar sale in at least 15 years, disposing of $53.13 billion in FY 26, more than double the $25.52 billion sold in FY 23. The rupee weakened about 9.5% against the dollar, prompting heavy RBI intervention in both spot and forward markets, where forward‑market net sales hit a historic negative $103.06 billion in March 2026.
Week Ahead: US Dollar Slips on Trade Uncertainty as NFP, Eurozone HICP Loom
US Dollar slipped this week, trading near 97.60 on the DXY, down about 0.2% as traders digest the Supreme Court’s decision that declared Trump‑era tariffs illegal and the administration’s subsequent new levies. A stronger‑than‑expected Producer Price Index failed to lift the greenback, while the euro gained on softer German HICP data and ECB President Lagarde’s dovish remarks. The pound recovered near 1.3470 after BoE Governor Bailey signaled possible rate cuts, and gold rose to a one‑month high of $5,260 as safe‑haven demand grew. Market participants now await key U.S. non‑farm payrolls and Eurozone inflation releases later in the week.
GBP/USD Slips as US PPI Lifts US Dollar, Middle East Risks Rise
GBP/USD slipped about 0.10% to 1.3469 as US core PPI jumped 3.6% YoY, reinforcing expectations of a less dovish Federal Reserve. The stronger dollar was further supported by rising geopolitical risk in the Middle East, which hurt risk‑on sentiment. In...
SBI Holdings Teams Up with Startale to Introduce Regulated Yen-Pegged Stablecoin
SBI Holdings has signed an MOU with blockchain firm Startale Group to create Japan’s first fully regulated yen‑pegged stablecoin. The token will be issued as a Type 3 Electronic Payment Instrument, backed by assets held in Shinsei Trust & Banking, and...
China: Policy Mix Guides 2026 Growth Path – UOB
UOB analyst Ho Woei Chen projects China’s 2026 real GDP growth at 4.7%, with the National People’s Congress likely setting a target range of 4.5‑5%. Inflation is expected to stay low, with a CPI target near 2% and actual inflation around 0.9%....
European Rate Markets: Eurobonds, By-Elections and the Spring Statement
In this episode, Francis Diamond and Aditya Chaudhia discuss European rate markets, focusing on euro‑area bond issuance, German duration outlook, and UK political developments. They assess the limited near‑term impact of proposed EU defence‑related Eurobonds, maintaining a neutral stance on...
Atlanta Fed GDPNow Growth Estimate for Q1 3.0% versus 3.1% Last
The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow model now estimates first‑quarter 2026 real GDP growth at 3.0%, a slight dip from the 3.1% forecast three days earlier. The revision follows fresh data from the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics,...
PBOC Allowing Gradual RMB Appreciation, Not Stopping It
The claim by @robinbrooks_j & others that the PBOC is intervening to stop the RMB's advance strikes me as a misunderstanding. This is the 7th month of RMB gains. If PBOC is intervening to "stop" CNY rise, it is not...
Why the Concern over Capital Flows
The Reserve Bank of India introduced tighter rules on external commercial borrowings to curb volatility in the capital account, even as the current account remains stable. While gross foreign direct investment (FDI) has averaged $78 billion annually, equity repatriation has surged,...
Weekly Gold (XAU/USD) Forecast: US-Iran Standoff Trumps US PPI, Setting S...
Gold surged past the $5,200 per ounce mark, targeting a seventh consecutive monthly gain as investors seek safety amid escalating US‑Iran tensions. The geopolitical flashpoint has revived haven demand, outweighing the muted impact of a weaker US Producer Price Index....
Sticky US PPI Sour Risk Mood; Sterling Hit by UK Political Blow
US producer‑price index jumped 0.5% month‑on‑month in January, outpacing expectations and reigniting concerns that inflationary pressures remain entrenched. The surprise lift pushed Dow futures down over 500 points and nudged the 10‑year Treasury yield below the 4% threshold, suggesting markets...
PPI Spikes 0.8%, Ending Rate‑cut Hopes
PPI just printed 0.8% vs 0.3% expected. Let that sink in. Producers are paying MORE. That cost gets passed to YOU. This is the hottest PPI in over 6 months and it just killed every rate cut fantasy on Wall Street. Buckle up —...
EUR/JPY Pressured Lower by Yen Strength, Softer German Inflation
EUR/JPY slipped to around 184.00 on Friday, marking a second consecutive decline of 0.10%. The drop was driven by a stronger Japanese yen after mixed inflation data showed a 1.6% year‑on‑year rise, with core CPI at 1.8% above expectations. Meanwhile,...
Germany Annual CPI Inflation Declines to 1.9% in February Vs. 2% Expected
Germany's flash CPI data showed annual inflation easing to 1.9% in February, undercutting the 2% market forecast. The month‑on‑month CPI rose 0.2%, while the ECB’s preferred HICP climbed 0.4% monthly and posted a 2.0% annual rate, also missing expectations. The...
Cool PPI Print May Lower Yields, Boost Tech
February 27, 2026 📊 Insight: PPI at 8:30 = inflation read for producers. Cooler print could push yields lower and support growth/tech. Hot number likely pressures rates higher and weighs on high-multiple names. Watch $DXY and 10Y reaction first 5–10 mins. Economic...
Number of Counterfeit Euro Banknotes Remains Low in 2025
ECB reported that 444,000 counterfeit euro banknotes were withdrawn in 2025, a 20% drop from the previous year and one of the lowest rates since the euro’s launch. The counterfeit rate fell to 14 per million genuine notes, with €20...
ECB Consumer Expectations Survey Results – January 2026
The ECB’s January 2026 Consumer Expectations Survey shows median inflation perception falling to 3.0% and 12‑month inflation expectations dropping to 2.6%, while three‑year expectations hold at 2.6% and five‑year expectations ease to 2.3%. Nominal income‑growth expectations rose to 1.2%, driven...
OANDA Ends Patent Infringement Lawsuit Against GAIN Capital
Forex platform OANDA Corporation has formally ended its long‑standing patent infringement lawsuit against GAIN Capital Holdings. The parties filed a stipulation in New Jersey District Court on February 26, 2026, dismissing all claims and counterclaims with prejudice and agreeing to...
Weaker Dollar Raises Import Costs, Boosts Export Appeal
"When the dollar falls in value... it takes more of our dollars to buy stuff from abroad." That’s the basic math of a weaker currency: imports cost more, and so do the everyday items with imported parts. The upside is...
Next Week’s Trading Outlook: Key Markets, Themes, Risks
I discuss market conditions, key markets to watch, core themes and top global macro event risk (including #NFPs) for next week's trading in this week ahead video: https://t.co/lp8DLESugk https://t.co/0HVj5C19GQ
Renaissance at Market Speed: UK Wholesale Finance in 2026
At the Goldman Sachs EMEA Head of Trading conference, FCA chief executive Nikhil Rathi outlined a sweeping reform agenda aimed at cementing the UK’s position as a global wholesale‑finance hub. He highlighted recent regulatory wins – from tighter market‑abuse enforcement...
AUD/USD's Six-Week Rally Meets Multi-Year High Test
Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD 6-Week Winning Streak Faces Major Test at Multi-year Highs https://t.co/OQ8pT6aY7y $AUDUSD Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/v6yDD2nwcL
Hot PPI Fails to Dent Fed Cut Expectations
The hotter-than-expected headline PPI this morning didn't curb Fed rate cut expectations. The implied cuts through 2026 from Fed Fund futures has edged up a bit. $DXY hasn't taken the fundamental bait for a bearish wedge break though: https://t.co/CgVJLLvWs8
PBOC Cuts FX Risk Reserve Ratio to 0%, Slowing Yuan Appreciation
China's PBOC will cut the foreign‑exchange risk reserve ratio for forward FX sales from 20% to 0% starting March 2, 2026. The move aims to ease hedging costs, curb excessive yuan appreciation, and signal a shift from emergency policy tools....
Patience Pays: Trade Hits 2‑Month High, Still Uncertain
#Druckenmiller once said we mostly sit all day reading, researching & waiting. My "ideal trade" finally broke to 2-month high plenty of waiting. Does it have legs? https://t.co/m8fErQ5Bm0 #forex #GBP
Low Treasury Yields Revive MMT Enthusiasm Flood
Feeling listless and disjointed as I await the inevitable barrage of "#MMT was right all along" posts now that 10-year Treasury yield has fallen below 4%... https://t.co/ANQCCAXJms
From Tariffs to Trade Flows: Diversion Effects and China’s Exports to the EU
U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports have coincided with a near‑10% year‑on‑year rise in China’s exports to the EU during 2025, but the surge began before the tariff hike and has not accelerated since. A difference‑in‑differences analysis of over 3,000 product...
Strong Current Accounts Can't Stop Taiwan, Korea Currency Weakness
Taiwan's currency has depreciated even as Taiwan's current account has soared (to 20% in calendar 2025, with 30% expected in 26). But Taiwan is not alone -- the Korean won is also very very weak even as Samsung...
China's Central Bank Eases Dollar Purchases to Curb Yuan Rally
China Central Bank Moves to Tame Yuan Rally—China’s central bank on Friday moved to combat a rally in the yuan by making it cheaper for importers to buy dollars and sell the Chinese currency. @RebeccaYFeng https://t.co/uVx5NuUmDE
From Fed Failures to Inflation and Stablecoins: America’s Trust Is Cracking
The new book *Avoid Fiscal & Economic Disaster with Ethics, Economics, and Excellence* by former Fed official Bill Bergman and retired Air Force Lt. Col. Larry Feltes warns that America’s greatest vulnerability is a collapsing trust in its institutions. They...
Norwegian Krone Leads Safe‑Haven Surge Amid Debt Monetization
The debasement trade is about markets searching for safe havens from debt monetization. That's driving up safe haven currencies. Norwegian Krone just took the lead (orange), while Swedish Krona (red) is in second place. Swiss Franc (black) is in third... https://t.co/hjA5jhrvvn...
Bloomberg Overlooks Key Current Vs. Financial Account Split
An interesting article from Bloomberg -- but one that misses an important part of the real story by following the recent advice of CATO and the WSJ oped page and ignoring the classic split in the balance of payments between...
US Producer Prices Surge Past Expectations in January
US January Producer Price Index prints at 0.5% vs 0.3% expected - previously 0.4% m/m Core #PPI at 0.8% vs expected 0.3% - previously 0.6% m/m Core PPI at 3.6% vs 3.0% expected - previously 3.3% y/y/ Headline PPI 2.9% vs expected 2.6%...
Yuan
Not a total surprise -- the pace of appreciation was clearly pulling in funds betting on a further rise, and the yuan is heading toward levels where the PBOC has resisted appreciation in the past ... 1/
Real Yields Plunge, Not Breakeven Inflation, Despite AI Hype
With all the chatter about AI disruption, I would have expected lower breakeven inflation to be driving the fall in nominal Treasury yields, since AI is a deflationary shock. But that's not what's happening at all. It's real yields that...
Gold's $5,000 Level Marks Pause, Not Sell‑Off
After the January sell-off, gold has settled above $5,000. So that sell-off wasn't a sell-off at all, it's a pause. We saw the same thing after the pull-back in October after the IMF/WB meetings. A short pause before the debasement...
Emerging Markets Resume Currency Interventions Amid Falling Dollar
The Dollar is falling steadily versus EM. Brazil and Mexico are allowing their currencies to rise, but China, Korea, Thailand, Taiwan and Chile are intervening to stop their currencies from rising against the US Dollar. EM currency manipulation is back... https://t.co/4z57KA153r...
PBOC Eases FX Forwards, Stalls Yuan Rally Amid USD Consolidation
$USD consolidation continues, but PBOC eliminates reserve requirements for fx forwards and makes it easier for banks to provide liquidity offshore. Stops yuan rally for the moment. Denmark calls snap election. Greens win in the UK. https://t.co/hLRGJsDgY2...
Global FX Volatility Fades as USD Signal Narrows
In line with our narrowing USD Signal, Global FX Vol continues to fade here https://t.co/sY7hmVcxe3
PayPal’s Bitcoin Play Forecasted PYUSD’s Payments Shift
#FlashbackFriday In 2020, I said PayPal’s Bitcoin move wasn’t about Bitcoin at all, but about positioning for a very different payments landscape. PYUSD has since filled in the blanks. https://t.co/IryLfol0XZ Yesterday’s future. Progress optional. #Stablecoins #Paypal #PYUSD
HK Inflation Near Target, Currency Board Proves Effective
Hong Kong’s inflation rate comes in at 1.1%/yr in January, JUST A TAD below its de facto 2%/yr inflation target. Hong Kong’s Dollar-Based Currency Board is WORKING LIKE A CHARM. https://t.co/7NNKGjeDXe
China Cuts Shorting Costs, Drops 20% Reserve on Yuan Forwards
China Moves to Tame Yuan Rally by Slashing Shorting Costs—Chinese banks won’t be required to set aside a 20% risk reserve on forward currency trades https://t.co/myGXkMjp6X https://t.co/myGXkMjp6X
Balancing Rates Drives Predictable Credit Cycles
In order to have successful capital markets, you see the same things happen again and again. Since one man’s debts are another man’s assets, you have to keep interest rates not so high that they crush the debtor, without having them...
Trade Smart: Follow Structure, Not Noise
Order Block Model The market moves with structure, not noise. Identify the right Order Block, wait for a clear Break of Structure, and enter with patience. Trade less. Trade smart. #OrderBlock #SmartMoney #PriceAction #ForexTrading #tradingstrategy
USD/CHF Stuck Near 2011 Low, Breakout Looms
Swiss Franc Forecast: USD/CHF Five-Week Standoff at 2011 Close Low- Breakout Risk Builds https://t.co/aQbUe8s8GA $USDCHF Weekly Chart https://t.co/IEGfXTQuEv
Canada’s Inflation On Target, Money Supply Grows Below Golden Rate
Canada's January inflation (CPI) is ON TARGET at 2.29%/yr. Canada’s money supply (M3) is growing at 4.02%/yr. That’s a bit below Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of ~6-8%/yr, a rate consistent with Canada's 1-3%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY...
DXY Forms Rising Triangle, Bullish Break Possible
That is a very distinct - 'pretty', if you will - rising triangle on the $DXY Dollar Index. Resistance is also the midpoint of the Nov-Jan bear leg of this descending channel. Tech pattern more often resolves with a bullish...
Integrating Sentiment Surveys and Trends Into Market Analysis
Latest episode of the Trading Global Macro Podcast discusses market sentiment. @MWellerFX and I touch on sentiment surveys, market-based positioning and looser measures (eg headlines, search trends) - and how to integrate it into your market analysis: https://t.co/B06D4S71N8
Chart Patterns With Over 80% Accuracy Revealed
📈Chart Patterns Ranked by Accuracy % Which patterns work 80% of the time? This is a GOOD one 👇 Make sure you follow/subscribe to @proptraderedge for more great tips like this
Dollar Remains Dominant; No Viable Reserve Alternatives Yet
My @BrookingsInst blog on whether US reserve currency status is eroding. There’s no sign the fall in the Dollar is accompanied by foreign reserve managers bailing on the greenback. There simply aren’t any viable alternatives, including the Euro… https://t.co/U189pIWHJ4
Brazil's Trade Surplus Ignored, Real Remains Undervalued
No other EM has transformed itself in the past decade quite like Brazil, which has shifted its trade balance into a structural surplus. This shift has gotten no recognition in markets whatsoever. The Real remains deeply discounted compared to pre-COVID... https://t.co/1DJ37H8dXi...