Today's Currencies Pulse
RBI logs record $53.13B net dollar sale as rupee slides 9.5%
The Reserve Bank of India recorded its largest net dollar sale in at least 15 years, disposing of $53.13 billion in FY 26, more than double the $25.52 billion sold in FY 23. The rupee weakened about 9.5% against the dollar, prompting heavy RBI intervention in both spot and forward markets, where forward‑market net sales hit a historic negative $103.06 billion in March 2026.
The Dollar Is the Only Game in Town
The U.S. dollar is strengthening across major G10 pairs as the Middle East conflict fuels risk aversion, pushing the euro, yen, and sterling lower. Emerging market currencies such as the peso, yuan and real also slide, while equity markets suffer broad sell‑offs, led by Asian indices. Treasury yields climb, tightening financing conditions, and oil prices surge, adding pressure to bond markets. The backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty makes traditional safe‑haven assets like gold and the Swiss franc less effective, underscoring the dollar’s dominance.
Brent Jumps 14% as Dollar Strengthens, Markets Shocked
The Brent oil price is now up a stunning 14% from Friday and we're starting to see disorderly strengthening in the Dollar as the global risk-off builds. Even gold is down versus the Dollar at this point. This is a...
Dollar Dominates as Safe Haven Amid Global Tensions
The Dollar is the Only Game in Town: If this is World War 3, the world wants dollars. The greenback has is broadly higher but hardly anything else is. Other safe haven, like gold, the Swiss franc, and US Treasuries...
Federal Reserve Revenue: Cutsinger’s Solution
The Federal Reserve sets its own operating budget and remits any surplus to the Treasury, but it lacks a residual claimant who would benefit from cost savings. Because officials do not capture saved dollars, there is little incentive to minimize...
Japan Initiates Yen Defense via Reverse Carry Trade
Japan selling to prepare to defend the Yen. Stage 1 of reverse carry trade thesis.
WWIII Fears Drive Surge in Dollar Demand
The $US role in the world economy has been questioned, but amid fears of WWIII, the dollar is in much demand. Not Swiss francs. Not gold. The dollar. See https://t.co/pDzT69A9b1 https://t.co/bIUvqkX4HO
Eurozone Inflation at Risk of Trending Higher over War in Middle East
Eurozone February inflation rose modestly, with headline rates climbing from 1.7 % to 1.9 % and core inflation edging up to 2.4 %. The increase occurred despite a smaller energy contribution, signalling persistent price pressures in services and goods. The ongoing Middle East...
Euro Inflation Stable; Service Spike Likely Temporary
🇪🇺 Don't think there's much to worry about in today's euro area inflation numbers. Core goods inflation is rising, but several temporary factors drove the upside surprise in services (Olympics effect?), barely offsetting the downside surprises from last months. https://t.co/UqbbT9rLY9
P Nandalal Weerasinghe: Central Bank of Sri Lanka's Policy Agenda for 2026 and Beyond
Governor P. Nandalal Weerasinghe outlined the Central Bank of Sri Lanka’s policy roadmap for 2026, building on the macro‑economic stability achieved in 2025. He highlighted that despite global trade uncertainties, market volatility and geopolitical tensions, inflation fell below 5 % and...
Pål Longva: Report From Norges Bank Watch
In 2025 Norges Bank cut its policy rate twice, first to 4.25% in June and then to 4% in September, surprising markets despite the bank’s stated commitment to transparent communication. Governor Pål Longva highlighted ongoing efforts to convey forecast uncertainty,...
Italy February Preliminary CPI +1.6% vs +1.1% Y/Y Expected
Italy's February preliminary HICP rose 1.6% year‑on‑year, beating the 1.1% consensus. Core inflation accelerated to 2.4% from 1.7% in January, with services inflation jumping to 3.6%. The hotter reading aligns with broader Eurozone CPI data, intensifying price‑pressure concerns. Analysts suggest...
Risk Off as Market Ponders New Energy Crisis From Iran Conflict.
The episode analyzes how the escalating Iran‑Israel conflict is triggering a fresh energy crisis, especially in Europe, where gas spot prices have surged 70% and oil is trading above $80 per barrel. Hosts discuss market reactions: a brief rally in...
February Brings Another Sharp Inflation Rise in Turkey
Turkey's annual inflation rose to 31.5% in February, driven primarily by a 2.96% month‑on‑month CPI increase. Food prices surged, with annual food inflation at 36.5%, while core inflation eased to 29.5%, its lowest since late 2021. Producer‑price inflation remained around...
Piero Cipollone: The Digital Euro - Enhancing Payments in the Euro Area
In a February 2026 speech to Italy’s Parliamentary Committee, ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone outlined the digital euro initiative, stressing its role in modernising payments and reinforcing trust through democratic legitimacy. He framed the project as a strategic response...
ECB's Villeroy: It Would Be a Mistake to Predict Rate Move in a Hurry
ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy warned that forecasting a rate move too quickly would be a mistake, emphasizing that policy decisions will not hinge solely on volatile energy prices. He noted that France’s exposure to Middle‑East tensions remains limited,...
DXtrade Integrates theScreener Investment Intelligence and Research
Devexperts announced that its DXtrade multi‑asset trading platform will integrate theScreener’s investment intelligence, giving brokers instant, actionable research within the trading interface. The partnership adds multi‑language equity, sector and market insights to DXtrade’s existing support for stocks, options, futures, crypto...
BOJ Might Have to Put Off March Rate Hike Amid US-Iran Conflict - Report
The Bank of Japan is likely to postpone its March interest‑rate hike as market volatility from the US‑Iran conflict intensifies. Yen depreciation remains the only clear trigger for a hike, but geopolitical risk and rising oil prices are prompting caution....
Iran Strike Sparks Cross-Asset Volatility, Market Outlook Discussed
I'll be on with @MariaBartiromo tomorrow am- 7:10 EST on @FoxBusiness discussing the surge in cross-asset volatility given the Iran Strike & what it means for markets
Yuan Gains Return Real Exchange Rate to 2024 Levels
The yuan's appreciation against the dollar over the last few months looks to have pulled China's real exchange rate back to its end 2024 levels (February is my estimate based on the CFETS index) 1/ https://t.co/KtxZcE3nT7
Reflections on the Latest Middle Eastern War and How the Dollar Might Be Impacted
The early stages of the Iran‑U.S./Israel war have pushed investors toward the dollar as a safe‑haven asset. While the dollar is currently strengthening, the article warns that a protracted conflict could unleash currency‑market turbulence reminiscent of the 1970s transition to...
Gundlach Urges Investors to Shift From Dollar to Foreign Assets
Jeff Gundlach: “My recommendation is that US Dollar based investors should be investing in foreign markets in foreign currencies. Because the US Dollar appears to be in a long-term bear market” https://t.co/b2PwOxuvyI
Fed More Likely to Stay Pat?
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates steady, prompting the dollar index to climb and Treasury 10‑year yields to rise about nine basis points. Higher yields reflect tighter monetary expectations, while the 10‑year TIPS also edged up six...
CEE FX: Forint and Lira Seen Under Pressure – ING
ING analyst Frantisek Taborsky warns that Central and Eastern European (CEE) currencies, especially the Hungarian forint and Turkish lira, will feel downward pressure as an Iran‑related energy shock pushes oil and gas prices higher and strengthens the US dollar. The...
OANDA Announces Transition of Its Prop Trading Business to FTMO Group
OANDA announced that its proprietary trading arm, OANDA Prop Trader, will be transferred to the FTMO Group following FTMO’s acquisition of OANDA last year. The migration begins on March 2, 2026 and runs through March 31, 2026, offering clients incentives to move to FTMO’s...
National Bank of Poland Preview: Geopolitical Tension Makes a March Cut a Close Call
Poland’s central bank is poised to cut rates by 25 basis points in March, aligning with its recent dovish communication and a cooling inflation outlook. However, recent US‑Israeli strikes on Iran have raised oil prices, introducing upside risks to headline...
TradingView Makes Volume Footprints Available in Pine Scripts
TradingView announced native volume‑footprint support in its Pine scripting language, granting users detailed order‑flow data inside each price bar. The new request.footprint() function returns exact bid and ask volume, delta, and auction metrics such as Point of Control, Value Area...
Institutional FX Trading Volumes Cool 5% in February 2026
Institutional foreign‑exchange trading volumes slipped about 5% month‑over‑month in February 2026 after a record‑breaking January. All major platforms—FXSpotStream, Cboe FX, Euronext FX and Deutsche Börse’s 360T—reported declines ranging from 1.7% to 10.9%. Cboe FX’s average daily volume fell to $59.67 billion, while Euronext FX posted the...
Read Market Footprints, Trade Structure Over Emotion
Liquidity was taken. Structure was broken. Demand reacted. 📈 The market always leaves footprints — smart traders learn to read them. Trade with structure, not emotion. #PriceAction #SmartMoneyConcepts #ForexTrading #MarketStructure #TradingEducation
Risk Off Rules The Day
Attacks in Iran and retaliatory strikes across the Middle East sparked a classic risk‑off rally, pushing the U.S. dollar higher and dragging most Asian equity markets lower, with the notable exception of commodity‑heavy Australia. Hong Kong’s benchmark indices fell sharply, while...
Oil Shock Threatens Inflation, Yields, Market Deleveraging
Markets are in risk off mode but NOT full panic YET 📉 $SPX $ES $NQ down 🛢️ $CL surging 🥇 $GC up YET 💵 $DXY strong 📈 $VIX rising Ras Tanura attacked. Oil supply at risk. Iran escalating. If oil keeps climbing, inflation comes back fast. If...
Asia’s Outlook Under Higher Oil Prices
Asia can currently absorb the recent oil‑price surge, but the region’s heavy reliance on imported energy makes it vulnerable if prices stay high. Japan and the Philippines source almost 90% of their oil from the Middle East, while China and...
Middle East Headlines Dominate Market over Weekly Data
🚨 TRADERS ALERT 🚨 📊 What to Watch This Week 🗓️ Mon: Iran war fallout + ISM Manufacturing 🗓️ Tue: Fed speakers 🗓️ Wed: ADP + ISM Services 🗓️ Thu: Jobless Claims 🗓️ Fri: NFP + Retail Sales + more Fed speak But make no mistake -...
RBA Reveals the Number of Australians Who’d Be Out of Work if It Just Focused on Lowering Inflation
The Reserve Bank of Australia disclosed that a more aggressive rate‑hiking path would have added roughly 200,000 unemployed workers and pushed mortgage repayments up by about $500 a month on a $600,000 loan. Chief economist Sarah Hunter’s internal modelling shows...
A Brief History of Bank Notes in the United States and some Lessons for Stablecoins
Mark Carlson’s Federal Reserve note examines the era before the Fed when U.S. commercial banks issued their own paper money, backed by a mix of bank assets and government bonds. The piece highlights how those privately‑issued notes depended on a...
Merz Is Wrong: Why Hard Work Won’t Beat China
German politician Merz blamed low productivity for China’s competitive edge, arguing Germans must work harder. The article counters that China’s advantage stems from systemic factors—an undervalued yuan, extensive subsidies and strategic industrial policy—that create a 40‑60% price gap despite higher...
Middle East Tensions Likely Push Rand Lower, Fuel Costs Up
Prolonged tension in the Middle East. Rising oil prices, if sustained, and a weaker Rand. Add the increased fuel levies announced in the budget speech on top of macro concerns, and taking the governor’s conservative nature and the new 3% inflation...
Wall Street Rebounds as Oil and Gold Retreat
Is the market already done with the US-Iran war? Wall Street erased early losses while gold and crude oil recoiled from panic highs. Now what? #OilPrices #Crude #Iran #IranWar #stockmarkets #Dollar #Macro https://t.co/sUv93zfPtT
FXEM (Empire Markets) Adds UAE CMA Category 5 License
Empire Markets' retail brand FXEM has obtained a UAE Capital Market Authority Category 5 licence, moving from its offshore Mauritius domicile to a regulated presence in the United Arab Emirates. The licence, coveted by many MENA‑focused brokers, enables FXEM to offer...
Geopolitical Tensions Drive Gold, Oil, USD, Equity Outlook
Iran War, Gold, Oil, USD Majors, Equities Weekly Technical Outlook (webinar archive) https://t.co/EgPYJ8go5k Asset Chaptered on YouTube: https://t.co/vxBFh5ks3e
Traders Slash BOE Cut Odds Below 50% for March
Traders trim BOE bets, see less than 50% chance of a cut in March https://t.co/qbysIjoLyJ via @highisland https://t.co/TOAzMgmV6e
Market Outlook for the Week of 2nd-6th March
The week of March 2‑6 is packed with macro releases, including Eurozone, UK and US manufacturing PMIs, Eurozone CPI flash estimates, Australian Q4 GDP, and a full slate of US labor market data. Analysts expect the ISM manufacturing PMI to dip...
Core Inflation Hits Highest Since Early 2024
CPI and PPI translations into PCE suggest core prices in January rose around 0.43%, give or take. That would be the highest month-over-month reading since February (which was +0.448%) and annualizes to 5.3%. It corresponds to a 3.1% y/y rate, the highest...
ECB Signals Quick Rate Moves Amid Gas Surge
The Fed has been quiet but THIS ECB comment shows you how central bankers are thinking about the rise in oil/gas prices Minutes after European natural gas surged 50%, an ECB Governor said they’re ready to “move quickly” on rates. Energy spike...
Safra Group Closes Saxo Bank Takeover, Daniel Belfer Named CEO
J. Safra Sarasin Group has completed the purchase of a 71% stake in Copenhagen‑based Saxo Bank for €1.609 billion, after securing approvals from FINMA and the Danish regulator. The deal, initially announced in March 2025, was adjusted downward following a $50 million AML fine....
Dollar Rallies on Middle East War; Treasuries Stay Unsafe
Dollar Jumps on War, but Treasuries are No Safe Haven: There is one fundamental driver today and that is the Middle East war. After finishing last week on a soft note, the greenback has rallied. It is up by 0.5%...
Post‑COVID Dreams of Roaring Twenties Meet 1970s Reality
Post-COVID, there was hope for an another roaring 20s. It’s been more like the 1970s.
Dollar Rally Hits All EM; Oil Ties Soon Diverge
The Dollar is rallying on risk-off price action, including against EM (black). Markets are not yet differentiating between oil exporters and oil importers, so everyone's getting hit in EM, but that'll soon give way to markets discerning between these two. https://t.co/AOkYSZgAuL...
Dollar Remains Safe Haven Despite Boomer Nostalgia
I guess the dollar is still a safe haven currency despite all the boomers saying its time as king is over
Brent Climbs, USD Rise Temporary; Real Set to Rally
Brent has jumped to $79 per barrel from $72 on Friday. We're currently getting risk-off price action that's lifting USD, including against commodity exporters like Brazil. But that will fade and the Real will rally like it did after the...
War Fuels USD Rally, While Equities and Treasuries Falter
$USD rallied on the war. Equities slid. Gold and oil jump. US Treasuries are not the safe haven. With decapitation strike on Iran, which the US said it had destroyed its nuclear capability last June, the end...