Today's Currencies Pulse
RBI logs record $53.13B net dollar sale as rupee slides 9.5%
The Reserve Bank of India recorded its largest net dollar sale in at least 15 years, disposing of $53.13 billion in FY 26, more than double the $25.52 billion sold in FY 23. The rupee weakened about 9.5% against the dollar, prompting heavy RBI intervention in both spot and forward markets, where forward‑market net sales hit a historic negative $103.06 billion in March 2026.
Sydney’s “Pretty Sh!t” Auction Market
Sydney’s property auction market experiences a sharp surge in clearance rates during February and March, marking the highest seasonal performance in recent years. Historical data shows 2022 and 2024 achieved the peak clearance percentages for this period. As the year progresses, rates typically taper off unless influenced by external factors such as interest‑rate movements. The pattern reflects a post‑pandemic rebound that fuels early‑year buyer activity before seasonal slowdown sets in.
US Activity Was Surging Ahead of Military Action
U.S. ISM surveys show the economy accelerating in early 2026, with the February services index climbing to 56.1 and overall business activity reaching 59.9, the strongest pace since May 2024. New orders and order backlogs also surged, supporting a projection...
Press Release: Global Corporates Bolster FX Risk Management Amidst Trade Uncertainty
Global corporates are intensifying foreign‑exchange risk management as trade volatility spikes. A new Treasury Today survey shows 88% now hedge FX, with 61% of previously unhedged firms contemplating hedging. Despite a 67% surge in hedging costs, activity has risen and...
USDCHF Comes Off the Boil, but Prior Swing Area Support Is Stalling the Fall.
The USD/CHF rally cooled after two days of war‑driven safe‑haven buying, snapping a breakout above the 50 % retracement (0.78206) and peaking near the 61.8 % level (0.78726). Momentum stalled at 0.7878, and the pair closed below the midpoint, prompting a pullback...
Nicolas Shamtanis and Stathis Xenos Launch Broker/Prop Firm Advisory Service Conexus IQ
Nicolas Shamtanis and Stathis Xenos have launched Conexus IQ, a boutique advisory firm aimed at CFD brokers, prop firms, and broader fintech platforms. The duo leverages nearly two decades of experience in FX, CFDs, and social‑trading to help clients navigate a...
ARQ Raises $70M To Expand Stablecoin Banking In Latin America
ARQ, formerly DolarApp, raised $70 million in a Series B led by Sequoia Capital and Founders Fund. The funding will fuel a rebrand, team expansion, and rollout of new financial products beyond its core stablecoin remittance service. With more than two million...
Indian Rupee Tumbles to a New Record Low Amid the US-Iran War. What's Next?
The Indian rupee fell to a new record low as the US‑Iran conflict sparked safe‑haven buying of the dollar and pushed oil prices higher. Higher oil costs and the realization that U.S. rate cuts may be delayed have lifted inflation...
Research: UK Official Holdings of International Reserves: February 2026
The UK’s official international reserves rose in February 2026, reaching approximately £115 billion, driven primarily by gains in foreign‑currency assets. Gold holdings remained steady at around £10 billion, while IMF‑related assets showed a marginal increase. The reserve portfolio’s composition shifted slightly toward US‑dollar‑denominated...
China’s Sovereign Debt Is Becoming a Strategic Alternative to US Treasuries: Economist
Chinese sovereign bonds are positioning themselves as a strategic alternative to US Treasuries, driven by investor demand for geopolitical hedges. Recent dollar‑denominated issuances in Hong Kong saw a 30‑times oversubscription, with coupon rates closely matching Treasury yields. Economist Xu Qiyuan...
Elliott Wave Update of EURUSD – March 4th, 2026
The latest Elliott Wave update shows EUR/USD slipping over 200 pips as investors flee to the U.S. dollar amid heightened Middle East tensions. Wave analysis suggests the pair is in a corrective phase, with the next bullish support zone around 1.0750....
US Dollar Index Rises Above 99.00 as Middle East Tensions Drive Inflation Fears
The US Dollar Index surged past the 99‑point mark, trading around 99.20 for a third consecutive day, as investors reassessed Federal Reserve rate‑cut expectations. The 10‑year Treasury yield steadied near 4.06%, reflecting higher real yields amid rising inflation concerns. Escalating...
Divergent Chinese PMIs Suggest Resilient External Demand, but Soft Domestic Environment
China's official manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.0 in February, matching a 33‑month low, while the private RatingDog index rose to 52.1, highlighting a split between domestic weakness and export‑driven resilience. Sub‑indices show production, new orders and employment contracting, even as...
Canadian Dollar Bulls Seem Hesitant as Firmer USD Counters Elevated Oil Prices
The USD/CAD pair rebounded toward the 1.3700 level after a brief pullback, but remains trapped in a two‑week range. A firmer U.S. dollar, buoyed by safe‑haven flows and waning expectations of three Fed rate cuts, is offsetting the rally in...
Join My Macro‑Driven Forex Community on Slice
Excited to share some big news - I’ve officially joined Slice https://t.co/gid7Ek33vo 🎉 I’m bringing my structured forex trade ideas, in-depth macro analysis, and real-time market insights to the Slice community. My goal has always been simple: help traders build consistency,...
Qatar LNG Shutdown Tightens Supply, Pressures Emerging Markets
Oil and gas price shocks hit emerging markets more than developed. Not to mention South Korea and Japan are major buyers (read: dependent). BOJ inflation-induced rate hike can be pulled forward from my Q3 projection to Q2. $USDJPY
China’s RatingDog Manufacturing PMI Climbs to 62.1 in February, Services PMI Rises to 56.7
China’s RatingDog Manufacturing PMI surged to 62.1 in February, up from 50.3 in January, while the Services PMI rose to 56.7, both beating market expectations. The strong readings signal a robust rebound in Chinese factory output and service activity. The...
Dollar Rally Signals Stronger USD, Potential Market Shifts
The Dollar’s Climb: What It Means Now $DXY $USD $UUP My thoughts based on the charts on @stockcharts https://t.co/zhE0dQKw6t https://t.co/JXMstMoSwD
Energy-Driven Inflation Drowns US‑Iran Conflict, Fed Cut Hopes Slump
One of the side effects of the blasé market response to the US-Iran conflict is economic concerns seem to readily overridden by inflation expectations from higher energy prices. Expectations for Fed rate cuts through 2026 have dropped to -41bps -...
Taiwan Dollar Drops to Weakest Since May as Stock Outflows Surge
The Taiwan dollar fell to 31.782 per U.S. dollar, its weakest level since May, after foreign investors sold NT$230.2 billion of Taiwanese stocks this week – the largest weekly outflow since at least 2000. The sell‑off was triggered by heightened geopolitical...
Multi‑billion FX Options Expire Thursday Across Major Currencies
Notable Thurs FX option expirations: 1.9 bln euros at $1.1685 $1 bln at JPY157 GBP535 at $1.3350 $305 mln at CAD1.3650 $335 mln at MXN17.50 $755 mln at BRL5.21 DTCC listed https://t.co/bSx6eAhEKQ
China’s Composite PMI Hits 3‑Year Low, RatingDog Peaks
The February PMI updates came across the wires earlier today - the final readings for much of the developed but first reading for China. Notably, the Chinese gov't's own composite dropped to a 3-year low while the 'RatingDog' surged to...
Oil Price Rise Might Push Peso Back to 59:$1
Rising crude prices, driven by the Iran‑Israel conflict, could push the Philippine peso past the 59 per‑dollar threshold. MUFG forecasts the PHP trading between 58.5 and 59.5 if oil steadies around $90 a barrel, while JP Morgan sees a modest global...
US Services Surge to Highest ISM Since Oct 2024
US Service sector activity further accelerated in February according to the ISM data. The 56.1 reading was an unexpected improvement and highest since Oct 2024. The employment and price components also improved (higher and lower respectively). Good US economic update https://t.co/Pvofc3DgPk
Exclusive Macro Breakdown of Today's Rally Unveiled
I just posted a detailed macro breakdown of today's rally on @SliceApp This is where I share the deeper analysis, market correlations, macro trade ideas, and lessons I don't post anywhere else Join the community 👉 https://t.co/2RO8ANwj2x https://t.co/TKe1RoxUOt
Wednesday: RBA's Bullock Says March Call 'Live'
The episode covers a sharp rise in oil prices amid Middle East tensions, its impact on global markets, and an upgraded Australian Q4 GDP forecast of 0.7% growth. ANZ economists discuss central banks' cautious stance on inflation, noting higher oil...
Markets Wobble as Oil Spikes; US Vows Tanker Protection
For a few hours yesterday morning, markets looked very scary. Brent was going vertical, USD was rising like crazy and S&P 500 was plummeting. The US calmed things down by promising to insure and escort oil tankers, but one Iranian...
Markets in Nervous Consolidation After Extended AP Equity Rout
Nervous Consolidation Featured after the Asia Pacific Equity Rout was Extended: The dollar is trading a little softer today, but the tone is one of nervous consolidation. The market is digesting reports that Iran has reached out to negotiate the...
ISDA and EMTA Publish Revised Definitions for FX Derivatives Market
ISDA and EMTA have issued the 2026 FX Definitions, a comprehensive overhaul of foreign‑exchange derivative documentation. The new standards, slated for implementation on November 22, 2027, replace the 1998 FX and Currency Option Definitions and merge ISDA and EMTA templates...
Markets Consolidate Amid APAC Slide, Japan Threatens Intervention
Nervous consolidation is the main feature in the capital markets after Asia Pacific equities extended their slide. $USD is mostly softer but in yesterday's ranges. Japan's MOF threatened intervention. See https://t.co/24YmyiETAN https://t.co/XmEx257iS8
Swiss Inflation Low, Money Supply Growth On Target
Switzerland’s inflation rate at 0.03%/yr is at the lower end of the Swiss target range of 0-2%. NO SURPRISE. Switzerland’s money supply (M3) is within Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 4.4%-6.4%/yr at 5.3%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/wDVH5hwQyz
Bank of Japan Expands Blockchain Settlement Sandbox and Says CBDC Efforts Are Ongoing
The Bank of Japan announced an expansion of its blockchain sandbox to experiment with settlement of central bank reserves using tokenized deposits, targeting interbank and securities use cases. Governor Kazuo Ueda said the pilot will test connections to existing systems...
Exploring Money's Past, Present, and Future on Themelia
I had a thoroughly enjoyable conversation with @Jessica Ellerm on the @ThemeliaApp podcast. If you’re interested in the past, present and possible future of money, you might enjoy the full discussion: https://t.co/B7i9sKF81G https://t.co/4uk0xAjmVe
USD/INR Spikes Past 92, Warning of Inflation Surge
Usdinr crossed 92, a very quick move from the 90s. This plus crude will hit inflation in 6.months if it isn't controlled
What We Just Learned About The Dollar
The dollar continues to function as a global safe‑haven asset even amid acute crises, reaffirming its appeal to risk‑averse investors. Simultaneously, elevated U.S. Treasury yields are drawing capital despite lingering concerns over fiscal deficits and policy uncertainty. Market data shows...
Yen's 12-Day Slide: Close Above 5‑SMA
YEN - 12 days down on extended run - a close above the 5 SMA can set up a short sale. https://t.co/V3KhPE1bpS
Peso Hits New Lows After Downside Breakout
Peso - new momo lows on 2 per ROC after downside BO on Monday from 3 bar triangle. https://t.co/9h48YOGDYL
The Integration of AI in Modern Forex Automation
Artificial intelligence is reshaping foreign‑exchange trading, with the global AI market projected to reach $2.48 trillion by 2034 and AI‑driven forex platforms expected to grow to $631.9 million by 2035. Modern AI forex automation software can ingest massive data streams and execute...
War‑Driven Oil Surge Threatens Gold Market Stability
The US-Iran war has driven up oil prices, stoking inflation fears and lifting yields alongside the dollar. Will this break the gold market? #GOLD #GoldPrice #USIranConflict #Dollar #Stocks #Markets #Macro #Trading https://t.co/ciFOGnfO6T
Fed Warns Iran Conflict Could Spark Lasting Inflation Shock
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said his outlook, up until a few days ago, supported maintaining a general easing bias. Inflation has been on a trajectory of "gently heading down" while there's no evidence the labor market is tightening. But...
Gold Slides as Dollar Surges, Investors Unwind Safe‑haven Bets
Gold has dropped sharply amid the swell in volatility - whereas the Dollar has jumped. The metal is still a safe haven, but a lot of capital was deployed during its run up as a diversification play (and some as...
Fed Sees Stable Labor, Cautious Optimism, Future Rate Cuts
NY Fed President John Williams with a speech that marks to market his outlook, one that has few changes from recent commentary out of Fed leadership: Labor market has shown “promising signs of stabilization.” Despite a “lack of headway” on...
US Policy Uncertainty Likely Rising, Outpacing Dollar Index
All things considered, I would expect the US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index to be higher... Uncertainty index vs DXY on the weekly: https://t.co/sVGAiUIrV7
Kevin Warsh: The Radical Fed Chair Who Bridges Tech
Why I’m so bullish on the era of the Radical Fed Chairman: Most technicians aren’t technologists. But Kevin Warsh is both. 👇 https://t.co/90GCOPkuDW
Oil Spike Threatens USD’s Medium‑Term Reserve Status
I was on @Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal yesterday to discuss fallout from the spike in oil prices for the global economy and what this means for US reserve currency status. We're getting a risk-off Dollar rally now, but medium-term this...
Dollar Surges to Highest Since Dec 2025, COT Data Shows
U.S. Dollar gapping up to the highest level since early Dec. '25. Written recently at Thrasher Analytics about the pot'l for dollar strength based on COT positioning data. $UUP $USD https://t.co/Q0aZULVSnr
Markets Enter Risk‑Off: Liquidity Favored, Correlations Surge
I did a video on the overview of the 'risk off' position last night after the US close. We are shifting into the more intense, sentiment-driven scenario: higher correlations, preference for liquidity above most other features, more intense moves. https://t.co/wSiCdtzp9e https://t.co/sRCRYfdQxz
Prop Trading Consolidates in March 2026
March 2026 kicks off with big changes for @ApexTradeFund @TradingLucid @Xpertfunding @ftmo @OANDAPropTrader Get the details https://t.co/hvM8ZXjDn6
Dollar Surge Flushes Gold, Emerging Market ETFs
The rock solid complacent trends like $GLD, $EEM, and $ACWX all getting flushed today as the dollar rips another day https://t.co/f6LhWCRZLV
Dollar Rallies as Risk‑off Sentiment Deepens, Stocks Fall
In contrast to the US indices drop, the $DXY Dollar Index is extending its rally. Risk correlations are increasingly aligning - suggesting a stronger drive in sentiment (specifically 'risk off') https://t.co/TQcm749mr6
Sharp Dollar Rally Threatens Treasury Market Stability
The Dollar is rallying sharply. When this kind of Dollar strength happens, risk of disorderly market conditions and problems in the US Treasury market rise, because the highly leveraged basis trade can get hit as EM central banks sell their...