Today's Currencies Pulse
RBI logs record $53.13B net dollar sale as rupee slides 9.5%
The Reserve Bank of India recorded its largest net dollar sale in at least 15 years, disposing of $53.13 billion in FY 26, more than double the $25.52 billion sold in FY 23. The rupee weakened about 9.5% against the dollar, prompting heavy RBI intervention in both spot and forward markets, where forward‑market net sales hit a historic negative $103.06 billion in March 2026.
Pound Drops, FTSE 100 to Fall as Investors Look to Havens
The British pound slipped to its lowest level this year as heightened geopolitical tension pushed oil prices above $80 a barrel. The decline triggered a sell‑off in the FTSE 100, with analysts forecasting a roughly 1% drop for the day. Investors are fleeing riskier equities and seeking refuge in traditional safe‑haven assets such as gold and U.S. Treasuries. The market reaction underscores the sensitivity of UK equities to currency weakness and commodity‑driven risk sentiment.
IG Japan Warns Traders of Market Fluctuations Due to Middle East Situation Deterioration
IG Japan has issued a market‑volatility warning as Middle East tensions intensify, causing rapid price swings across multiple asset classes. The broker expects continued fluctuations and may adjust margin requirements at short notice. Traders are advised to keep sufficient capital...
AUD/JPY Trades Above 111.00 After Paring Recent Losses
AUD/JPY rebounded to trade above the 111.00 level during Asian hours, offsetting earlier losses despite heightened safe‑haven demand from the Middle East crisis. The Australian dollar’s recovery was supported by a modest easing in domestic inflation and a dip in...
BoJ’s Himino Says Policy Should Gradually Move Toward Neutral Stance with Moderate Rate Hikes
Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Himino said the central bank’s policy remains somewhat accommodative but should gradually move toward a neutral stance through moderate rate hikes. He noted that the inflation gap is still slightly negative but expected to...
King Dollar Not Dead; China Still Buying Dollars
Talk of the death of King Dollar is premature. Exhibit #1: China. It runs a large current account surplus, and is accumulating a mountain of predominately dollar-denominated foreign assets at record rates. Those who YAK about DE-DOLLARIZATION should start to FOLLOW THE...
Plumbing Notes: Nothing Ever Happens
Money‑market volatility has markedly subsided, pushing overnight repo rates to near‑record lows and stabilising the SOFR‑FF basis. Higher inter‑bank volumes are keeping the basis narrow while swap spreads have widened, signalling easier funding conditions. The Federal Reserve’s aggressive volatility suppression...
Failed Signals Reveal Profitable Entry Points
🚨 I stopped losing money when I learned this one concept: Failed signals are the BEST signals. 🔄 Buy signal dies? Wait for the candle to close through the low. Go short. 📉 Sell signal dies? Wait for the candle to close through...
MUFG: Philippine Trade Costs to Fall After US Court Ruling
MUFG Bank expects U.S. tariffs on Philippine imports to decline following the Supreme Court’s decision that curbed the Trump administration’s emergency‑powers tariff authority. The bank notes that exemptions for high‑value semiconductors and key agricultural products should keep effective trade costs...
Gold Poised Near $6k Amid Iran‑Israel Conflict
Gold closed Friday at $5,278. The all-time high is $5,595. That's $317 away. The US and Israel just launched strikes on Iran. Tehran is retaliating. Iran vows to shut down the Strait of Hormuz. This is the biggest safe haven trigger since 2020. Fib extension...
Fiat Currencies Fail; Bitcoin Offers a True Standard
100 Egyptian pounds equals 2 dollars. You try to spend money and have to deal with conversion rates All countries’ currency is just paper backed by nothing Dollars are printed and you are taxed to fund wars you don’t support The whole...
ECB’s Nagel Says Doubts on Dollar’s Haven Status Have Risen
European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel warned that confidence in the U.S. dollar’s safe‑haven status is waning. He noted that recent market turbulence has led international investors to question the dollar’s reliability, contributing to its ongoing weakness. Nagel...
Join Tomorrow's 8:30 Am ET Technical Outlook Webinar
**Reminder: Weekly Technical Outlook Webinar Tomorrow Morning at 8:30am ET! Interactive Session: https://t.co/EpyXNC6zVR Live Stream on YouTube: https://t.co/VjGiWa89qi
Leverage Drives Carry Trade; Watch Yen in Market Shocks
The carry trade has everything to do with leverage. And I encourage you to study Yen behavior during US stock market tail events.
PETER’S ASIAN BUSINESS & FINANCE BRIEFING – Monday 2 March 2026, 06:00 Hong Kong
Over the weekend, coordinated US and Israeli strikes hit Iran, prompting missile and drone retaliation that shut Dubai’s airport and threatened oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict pushed Brent crude toward $73 a barrel and heightened geopolitical...
Geopolitical Tensions Push USD, Gold, and Oil Higher
The old geopolitical playbook (USD up, gold up, oil up, bond yields down, stocks down) is on for now.
Foreign Investors Pour $1.55 Trillion Into USD, Defying “Sell America” Myths
Foreign investors poured a net $1.55 TRILLION into USD assets last year, up 31.4% from 2024. The oft repeated “Sell America” and “End of King Dollar” narratives don’t align with the facts. Hanke's 95% Rule: 95% of what you read in the...
Thai Gold-Trading Curbs Take Effect as Authorities Rein in Baht
Thailand's central bank introduced strict retail gold‑trading limits effective March 1, 2026. Individuals can now trade up to 50 million baht per day on each online platform, aiming to dampen speculative buying that has lifted the baht. The cap excludes USD‑denominated...
Commodities Surge, Euro Slides: Brace for Volatile Open
IG pricing US Crude up around $10 to $77.26 Gold up around $111 to $5,385 EURUSD down 64 pips to 1.1751 Strap in. This is going to be a wild open.
US Iran Strike Could Redefine Market Risk Profile
I delayed - and rewrote a few times - my week ahead article. Finally posted up (and here are some of the charts that I speak to): Will US Strike on Iran Change the Market’s Risk Profile? https://t.co/UZu6CPkjrl https://t.co/1Kccta89jL
Banking on Nonbanks
The IMF paper documents a rapid rise in non‑bank financial institution (NBFI) subsidiaries within banking groups, now accounting for about 32 % of syndicated loan origination in 2024. When macroprudential policies tighten bank‑level constraints, bank subsidiaries cut lending by roughly 1 %,...
Geopolitical Shock Hits Markets as New Ayatollah Dies
This is like Hezbollah redux Don't forget markets open at 6PM NY I am trading it live https://t.co/YkhvV47IGa
Iran Declares Hormuz Open, IRGC Hints Otherwise
The Strait of Hormuz may be open according to the Iranian government, but the IRGC seems to have different machinations. https://t.co/cvL7jYvGoa
Newsquawk Week Ahead: Highlights 2nd-6th March 2026
The OPEC+ meeting on March 1 is expected to unwind 137,000 barrels per day of voluntary cuts, signaling a tentative supply increase as Brent hovers near $71. US economic data show a slowdown in manufacturing, with the ISM PMI dropping...
Oil Surge Boosts
The decision tree for tonight - when markets open - follows from oil. In 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, oil rose 40%, which drove the Brazilian Real and other commodity exporters in Latin America a lot stronger. It weighed on...
Asian Session Opens in 7 Hours, Risk Integration Begins
Just under 7 hours until the Asian session open and the markets can start working some of this risk into market exposure and hedging
Elliott Wave Analysis of USDCAD – March 2nd, 2026
USDCAD slipped during the last week of February but managed a modest monthly gain, curbing a three‑week bear run. The pair now hovers near the 1.3500 support zone, a level closely watched by Elliott Wave analysts. The latest wave count...
EU Digital Euro Stalls Amid Offline‑only Push
Brussels proposed a digital form of cash that could be used both online and offline. Navarrete, by contrast, is pushing for an offline-only model. More delays. Can Europe break free of Visa and Mastercard? MEPs stall digital euro https://t.co/SLW3jTmnrB
Oil Spike Lifts Brazil Real, Sinks Turkish Lira
When markets open tonight, oil prices will spike, which will help oil exporters and hurt oil importers. In Q1 '22, oil prices spiked almost 40%. Single biggest beneficiary - by far - was Brazil's Real, which rose 20%. Turkish Lira...
Elliott Wave Analysis of EURUSD – March 2nd, 2026
The EUR/USD pair posted a weekly gain but still logged a modest loss for February, leaving it perched near the 1.1800 mark. An Elliott Wave analysis was released, probing whether the next significant move will head toward the 1.21 upside...
Brazil's Oversized Money Supply Fuels Inflation Above Target
#BrazilWatch🇧🇷: Brazil's inflation is 4.4%/yr. That's ABOVE its 3.0% inflation target. Brazil’s M4 is growing at 9.6%/yr. That is ABOVE Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of 7.1%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its 3.0%/yr inflation target. INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY....
Apex Trade Fund Faces Largest Drop, Sunday Open
This is the biggest drop we've had in a long time from @ApexTradeFund - It's not even close. This Sunday open. Be ready. 👀🔥
Elliott Wave Analysis of USDJPY – March 2nd, 2026
USDJPY recorded a solid monthly gain in February as Japan's inflation slipped lower, strengthening expectations of a more dovish Bank of Japan. The currency pair’s upward momentum has reignited speculation that it could approach a multi‑decade high. Elliott Wave analysts...
Emergency Sunday Trading Session at 6 PM ET
⏰ Emergency trading session on Sunday You won't want to trade the market open alone Join us at 6pm ET / 23 GMT to trade Gold $GC Nasdaq $QQQ $NQ Oil , Forex 👇 You wont' want to miss it. Subscribe and hit...
Eurozone Inflation Below Target as Money Supply Lags
The Eurozone’s inflation comes in at 1.9%/yr. That's below its 2%/yr target. The ECB’s money supply is only growing at 3.4%/yr. That's BELOW Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of 6%/yr, a rate consistent w/ hitting ECB’s 2%/yr target. INFLATION STORY = MONEY SUPPLY...
Breakout to 2 Month Highs
On February 27, 2026 the EUR/GBP pair surged to a two‑month high, a move highlighted by FX strategist Ashraf Laidi. He linked the breakout to widening euro‑pound yield spreads and shifting rate expectations, reiterating a trade idea he first shared...
Weak Dollar Often Worsens, Not Fixes, Trade Deficit
A Weak Dollar Won’t Fix the Trade Deficit There’s a popular belief that a weaker dollar will reduce the U.S. trade deficit by boosting exports and reducing imports. In the short term, the opposite often happens. When the dollar falls, imports immediately become...
DXY Near 3‑Year Low, Breakout Needed for Confirmation
$DXY - Potentially made a 3 year cycle low in January. February was only a small up month so it's not confirmed yet. A breakout above 100.39 is needed to confirm that the 3 year cycle low is in. A...
A Technical Look at some of the Major Currency Pairs Heading Into the New Trading Week
InvestingLive analyst Greg Michalowski released a video breaking down the technical outlook for six major FX pairs—EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, USD/CAD and AUD/USD—as the new trading week and month begin. He identifies the prevailing bias, key support and resistance zones,...
Global Growth Cools, Central Banks Pause; Short EUR/USD
Macro: global growth cools; central banks pause. Key factors: easing inflation, mixed earnings, USD strength. Risks: policy missteps, China slowdown. Trade: short EUR/USD. 📉 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Turkey's Soaring Inflation Mirrors Runaway Money Supply Growth
#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷: Turkey's CPI is 30.7%/yr. NO SURPRISE. Turkey's money supply (M3) is growing at 40.9%/yr. That is well above Hanke's Golden Growth of 12.4%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting Turkey's inflation target of 5.0%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/rvnlCC3318
Early Months May Launch the Monsoon Framework
It’s early. VERY early. But the months ahead could set the stage for the early beginnings of the Monsoon thesis/framework. Time to start thinking about it. IYKYK @RaoulGMI
US-Israel Strikes Trigger Global Market Volatility
🚨 The US and Israel just launched strikes on Iran. Tehran is firing back. Missiles hitting Gulf states. Markets open Sunday night. Oil. Gold. Nasdaq. Forex. Everything gaps. I'm going LIVE Sunday 6PM ET to break down what this means for your trades. Don't...
Bond Rally Threatened by Potential Strait of Hormuz Closure
Bond bulls that were celebrating 10y UST yields dropping <4% on Friday waking up Saturday morning to reports that the Strait of Hormuz is possibly being closed 👇 https://t.co/pg9o9TPdO5
Markets Rebound Fast After Geopolitical Shocks—Buy the Dip
Markets have survived every geopolitical shock in history Pearl Harbor took 307 days to recover. Kuwait took 189. 9/11 took 31. The average? 47 days Today the US and Israel struck Iran. History says buy the dip - but how long...
Synthetic EURUSD Shows Weak Dollar Reaction Today
Looking at the intraday chart of the synthetic EURUSD - derived through Bitcoin proxy - limited Dollar response to today's headlines https://t.co/Pcdz3RvyC7
Turkey's Lira Faces Pressure Amid Iran War Uncertainty
When markets open tomorrow night, they'll be hunting for winners and losers from war with Iran. Turkey is a big energy importer (red) and its trade deficit excluding gold and energy is near record levels (blue). Turkish Lira will be...
Gold +22%, Silver +31% Amid Global Chaos
The chaos doesn't stop. There's been Greenland, a yield spike in Japan, private credit ructions and AI. Now it's Iran. Easy to miss the forest for the trees and that's precious metals. Gold is up 22% this year. Silver 31%....
March Markets Driven by Existing Forces, No Policy Shifts
March 2026 Monthly: March seems to be more about the unfolding of current forces driving the capital markets, rather than new forces or policies. All the G10 central banks but the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meet in March, and...
The #1 Mistake All Traders Keep Making
The #1 Biggest Mistakes traders make Jakub shares his insights with me @iFXEXPO @jakub_ceo @fortraderscom
Egypt's Oversized Money Growth Fuels 12% Inflation
Egypt's inflation rate is 11.9%/yr. Egypt's money supply (M3) is growing at 20.6%/yr. That's ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate range from 11.1%/yr- 15.1%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its inflation target range of 3%/yr-7%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY...