Today's Currencies Pulse
RBI logs record $53.13B net dollar sale as rupee slides 9.5%
The Reserve Bank of India recorded its largest net dollar sale in at least 15 years, disposing of $53.13 billion in FY 26, more than double the $25.52 billion sold in FY 23. The rupee weakened about 9.5% against the dollar, prompting heavy RBI intervention in both spot and forward markets, where forward‑market net sales hit a historic negative $103.06 billion in March 2026.
ECB Schnabel: There Is No Need to Rush Into Action
European Central Bank Vice President Isabel Schnabel warned that Europe is confronting a massive energy price shock but cautioned against hasty policy moves. She emphasized that the ECB has sufficient time to assess incoming data before deciding on any rate increase. The stance suggests a wait‑and‑see approach, balancing inflation vigilance with growth concerns. Analysts see this as a bearish signal for the eurozone economy despite the lack of immediate tightening.
USDJPY Cracks Above 160.00 for the First Time Since July 2024
The USD/JPY pair surged past the 160.00 mark, reaching a high of 160.29 – the first breach since July 2024. The move briefly cleared the 2024 swing zone around 160.25 but stalled after only a few pips, indicating limited conviction....
Bank of Japan Publishes Revised Natural Rate Estimate, Hinting at Policy Shift
The Bank of Japan released a revised natural rate of interest estimate on Friday, marking a notable adjustment to its policy framework. The move is seen as a signal that the central bank may be preparing to alter its stance...
Peso Hits All-Time Low of 60.55 vs $1
The Philippine peso closed at a historic low of 60.55 per U.S. dollar, extending a three‑day slide. The decline was driven by persistent global risks, especially elevated oil prices hovering around $95 per barrel, and a strengthening U.S. dollar backed...
Americans Trust Fed to Tame Inflation Amid New Iran Shock
NEW w/ @bencasselman: Throughout a series of economic shocks that pushed up consumer prices in the past five years, Americans maintained faith that the Fed would eventually get inflation under control. The war with Iran presents another shock that is...
Indian Rupee Hits All‑Time Low of 94.70 per Dollar Amid West Asia Tensions and Oil Surge
The Indian rupee breached 94.70 per U.S. dollar on Friday, its weakest level ever, as Brent crude surged above $107 a barrel and geopolitical risk in West Asia intensified. Foreign portfolio investors dumped roughly $9.5‑$10 bn of Indian equities, while the...
The Thai Baht Remains Under Pressure
Thailand’s baht is under renewed pressure as rising oil prices and a stronger U.S. dollar converge. Tensions in the Middle East keep crude near $100‑$120 per barrel, inflating Thailand’s energy import bill and weakening the currency. Meanwhile, the two‑year U.S....
Fed’s Hawkish Tone and Middle East Tensions Push Dollar to 99.64 Index
The U.S. dollar index climbed to 99.64, its biggest one‑day gain this week, after the Federal Reserve signaled a “higher‑for‑longer” policy stance and Middle‑East cease‑fire hopes faded. Rising oil prices above $100 a barrel and heightened safe‑haven demand drove the...
BoE Independence Questioned as Letter‑Writing Ritual Sparks US Controversy
Reading this, all I can think is: what does it say about BoE “independence” if even considering its letter-writing model is deemed hyper controversial in the US? Moreover, I suspect a few former UK PMs would dispute the idea that...
Calmed by Uncertainty
In this episode of NatWest’s Currency Exchange, FX strategists Brian Dangerfield and Paul Robson examine why major G10 currency markets have remained unusually calm despite the heightened geopolitical risk from the Iran‑related Middle East conflict. They attribute the lull to...
Politicized Money Boosts Policy Risk, Hedge USD Exposure
Macro: politicization of money raises policy risk. Key factors: Trump to sign US bills, symbolic reflation tilt. Risks: polarization, FX volatility. Trade insight: hedge USD exposure. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Resilience and Readiness Across the Sterling Monetary Framework
The Bank of England is deepening its repo‑led, demand‑driven liquidity framework, with market‑wide facilities now supplying roughly a quarter of sterling reserves. Short‑Term Repo borrowing averages about £100 billion ($125 bn) and Indexed Long‑Term Repo about £70 billion ($87.5 bn) each auction, while the...
Rates Spark: The EUR Curve Is at a Delicate Balance
Eurozone short‑term rates are climbing in lockstep with Brent oil, which has stayed above $100 per barrel, while longer‑dated rates show signs of strain. The 2‑year‑to‑5‑year segment is flattening and could invert if oil breaches $120, suggesting a potential ECB...
Ringgit Slides to 4.00/USD, Investors Eye Fuel Subsidy Risk
Ringgit seeing weakness the last few days. It’s now: • 4.00 against USD • 3.12 against SGD Since the US war began, ringgit has weakened against Yuan, Yen, GBP, EUR. Could it be investors becoming a bit concerned about rising fuel subsidy bill?
Yen Poised for 30‑year Breakout as Dollar Stalls
30 year base in the Yen and it's about to breakout higher...US Dollar wrecking ball locked & loaded at the same time the geopolitics won't allow for a release of global dollar liquidity. @crossbordercap What say you?! @SantiagoAuFund What're you seeing? https://t.co/pGBvvssGL6
PipVertex Unveils Multi‑Asset Trading Platform for Global Digital Investors
FinTech startup PipVertex has launched a new multi‑asset trading platform that consolidates currencies, stocks, commodities, precious metals and digital assets into a single, speed‑focused interface. The service is available on browsers, mobile phones and tablets, aiming to simplify market access...
USD/JPY Breaches 160, Eyes Potential 162 Breakout
For the first time since July 2024, $USD has pushed above JPY160. It almost reached JPY160.40, which we suggested was needed to confirm a breakout. The BOJ & MOF officials I have spoken with seem more sophisticated that draw an...
Dollar May Fade, But Not Anytime Soon
In my latest Telegraph column I defend the dollar by channelling @TomCruise’s Maverick. To the claim that the dollar is probably headed for extinction, I say: Maybe so. But not today. https://t.co/lTW4ry33Lp https://t.co/q9PtKebSYk
PBOC Is Expected to Set the USD/CNY Reference Rate at 6.9089 – Reuters Estimate
The People’s Bank of China is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.9089, a key daily fixing watched across Asian FX markets. China’s managed‑floating system permits the yuan to trade within a ±2% band around this midpoint. The...
BoJ Must Emergency Hike to Halt JGB Steepening
genuinely think the BoJ needs to emergency hike. don’t toy with the idea of shorting oil futures (you don’t have the juice for that). Ueda—the JGB steepening can end if you have the courage to do what’s right. https://t.co/cHO1FRRfAf
OECD Predicts 4.2% US Inflation, Trump’s Achilles’ Heel
The OECD warns that US inflation will surge to 4.2% this year. As I predicted, the inflation genie will not be put back in the bottle and will remain one of Trump’s Achilles’ heels.
BSP Holds Rates at 4.25% in Surprise Off-Cycle Meet- #CapitalMarkets #Finance
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas kept its benchmark policy rate at 4.25% after an unexpected off‑cycle meeting, citing the sharp oil‑price shock from the Middle East conflict. Domestic fuel costs have surged up to 177%, prompting a national energy emergency...
Markets Brace for Volatility on Friday Opening
This is what markets are facing as we open for the last trading day of the week. https://t.co/F12P7EqHe1 https://t.co/kOToKFnLTg
ECB Warns June Rate Hike if War Continues
ECB’s Wunsch says rate hike likely if war isn’t over by June https://t.co/DfO5yOLNdf via @FerroTV @lisaabramowicz1 https://t.co/rkEFK0fHSo
Fed's Miran Makes Case for Small Balance Sheet
Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran urged a substantial reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet, proposing a cut of $1‑$2 trillion to restore a more neutral monetary stance. He suggested easing liquidity‑coverage‑ratio rules, destigmatizing repo and discount‑window facilities, and allowing securities to...
Iran War Scenarios Shape New Fed Policy Outlook
Three scenarios for the Iran war and what they mean for Fed policy under new leadership. Plus eight key takeaways from the latest FOMC meeting. 🟢 Open https://t.co/Tx6udRxjvm
Dollar and Oil Hold Steady After Trump’s Iran Pledge
The Dollar and Oil are Bid: The dollar and oil remain firm. The market has a had muted reaction to President Trump’s announcement late yesterday that it will extend its pledge not to strike Iran’s energy infrastructure for ten days...
Why Fed Rate Cuts Could Be Pushed Back
In this episode, Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. economist Michael Gapin and macro strategist Matthew Hornbach dissect the March FOMC meeting, noting the Fed’s decision to hold rates and retain an easing bias while pushing expected rate cuts from June/September to...
USD/JPY Near 160 as Risk Appetite Remains Cautious
Ahead of the weekend, amid the fog of war, risk appetites are restrained. Escalation to de-escalate? Is today the day the greenback pushes above $JPY160? PBOC sets $USD fix higher on weekly basis for the 1st time in...
USD/INR at 94.27 Signals Prolonged Market Turbulence
94.27 on the USDINR. These are going to be rough times, and it's going to take time for flows to come back in
Australian, New Zealand Dollars Slip Toward Support as Middle‑East Oil Shock Hits Asia‑Pacific
The Australian and New Zealand dollars edged toward key support zones after Brent crude plunged 6% to under $99 a barrel amid renewed Iran‑Israel hostilities. Energy‑price volatility and broader regional security worries are weighing on Asia‑Pacific currencies, setting the stage for...
ECB Shifts From Rate Cuts to Hikes Amid Energy Shock
The ECB spent two years cutting rates to revive growth. Now energy shocks are forcing them to hike into a slowdown. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/ZKgiJs3tbu
Jefferson and Barr's Speeches Raise Fedlock Hawkishness
Today's policy speeches from Jefferson and Barr continue to push the Fedlock hawkishness measure even higher. https://t.co/PYi7b3edxv
Naira Gains Across FX Markets as Remittance Rule Boosts Liquidity
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) tightened remittance rules, directing all International Money Transfer Operators to route diaspora inflows through designated naira settlement accounts. The move helped the naira appreciate modestly, closing at ₦1,383.88 per dollar, a 0.2% gain, while...
Bullish EURCAD M30: Turtle Soup Signals Reversal
📊 EURCAD M30 – Trade Setup On the M30 timeframe, we have a bullish market structure in place. 📈 🪤 We also identified a Turtle Soup setup, indicating a potential liquidity trap and reversal move. ⚡ Additionally, the market is forming an AMD...
Weak Dollar Fails to Lift Emerging Markets Amid Rising Yields
The dollar is below 100 on the index, down nearly 5% over twelve months. Textbook says this boosts emerging markets. But emerging market ETFs are down sharply. The Kospi just fell 3% in a session. That correlation isn't working. Why? US Treasury...
It’s No Longer the ‘American Century,’ But the US Continues to Dominate in Important Ways
The United States continues to dominate key global pillars despite the waning of the so‑called “American Century.” Its dollar remains the world’s primary reserve currency and U.S. equities account for about half of global market capitalisation. The country leads high‑value...
BOC Rogers: Will Have a Tough Job Dealing with Structural Changes to the Economy
The Bank of Canada (BoC) warned that structural shifts—declining immigration, evolving trade patterns and rapid AI adoption—will reshape Canada’s economy over the next five years. Combined with a recent rise in energy prices, these forces are expected to keep inflation...
SARB’s Short
𝗪𝗮𝗿, 𝗢𝗶𝗹, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗠𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘆 𝗥𝗮𝗻𝗱 🇿🇦 The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) just mapped out two possible futures for South Africa's economy. 𝗦𝗰𝗲𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗼 𝟭: 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝗰𝗸 If the conflict ends within 2 months, oil averages just under $100/barrel, and the...
Nigerian Naira Falls in Parallel Market as FX Inflows Jump 45% to $4.4 Bn
Nigeria’s parallel‑market naira slipped sharply even as foreign‑exchange inflows surged 45% to $4.4 bn in February. The rally in offshore portfolio flows and a sharp rise in central‑bank dollar sales highlight a liquidity boost that is not enough to offset structural...
U.S. Current‑Account Deficit Shrinks to $190.7 B in Q4, Easing Dollar Pressure
The United States reported a $190.7 billion current‑account deficit for the fourth quarter, a sharp reduction driven by stronger foreign investment earnings than outflows. The swing eases strain on the dollar, lifts equity sentiment and fuels debate over the durability of...
Turkey Likely Used Gold Swap to Fund Lira Defense
Lots of hints that Turkey has done a gold swap to raise FX to fund the central bank's intervention to defend the lira. It didn't show up in the CBRT's reserve disclosure for March 19th (reporting is lagged a week). ...
CBDC Embedded in Housing Law Hints at Yield Restrictions
There is a CBDC inserted in the middle of a housing act and we’re also getting one in 2030Ish Maybe this is another reason why they don’t wanna give us yield on stablecoins https://t.co/tXDqJOn6hB
Costa Rica Colon Hits Two-Decade High, Pressuring Central Bank
Costa Rica’s colon surged to 465 per U.S. dollar, its strongest level since 2005, marking a 7% gain this year. The rally was driven by robust export growth and increased foreign investment. In response, the central bank intervened, purchasing roughly...
Mexico's Rate Cut Highlights EM Outpacing Developed Central Banks
mexico just cut rates 25bps (split 3-2 vote) some DM central banks already getting outclassed by an EM
BoE Doubts Iran War Will Spark UK Inflation
Bank of England rate-setters doubt that the Iran war will trigger a UK price spiral https://t.co/7RIt9Lei1J via @irinaanghel12 @KowalczeKamil @tomelleryrees https://t.co/nWmHGMb2Qb
USD/JPY Pauses Below 160: Breakout or Reversal?
Japanese Yen Forecast: USD/JPY Stalls Below 160 – Breakout or Reversal? https://t.co/GZOTQAu87d $USDJPY Weekly Chart https://t.co/wFejZPDsD5
Japan's Oil Dependence Triggers Treasury Sales, Yield Spike
Japan imports 94% of its crude from the Middle East. 70% moves through the Strait of Hormuz. When oil spikes, Japan sells Treasuries to defend the yen. When Japan sells Treasuries, yields spike. When yields spike, everything breaks. Watch USD/JPY. $TLT $SPY https://t.co/8Vd43Ls5lB
GBP/USD Hits Key Resistance, Rally Stalls
Quick video update on the #GBPUSD levels British Pound Struggles as Key Resistance Caps Rally Again https://t.co/fka5fSX6Wb On YouTube: https://t.co/HiVu0iuLkg