Today's Currencies Pulse
Rupee flat on hopes West Asia truce will hold
The Indian rupee held steady as markets priced in hopes that a West Asia truce would hold, hovering near ₹95.78 per dollar after slipping 8 paise in early trade. Traders kept a close eye on geopolitical developments while the currency remained largely unchanged.
Philippines External Position Improves as Net Liability Narrows in 2025
The Philippines narrowed its net external liability to $50.8 billion, or 10.4% of GDP, by the end of 2025, improving from $52.1 billion three months earlier. External assets grew 1% quarter‑on‑quarter, outpacing a 0.4% rise in liabilities, driven by higher reserve assets and robust outward investments. Year‑on‑year, the liability gap fell 0.7% as asset growth of 5.4% exceeded liability growth of 4.4%. The central bank now holds 43.5% of the country’s external assets, underscoring its stabilising role.
Printing Money Fuels Borrowing, Creates Financial Bubbles
When an empire runs out of its own money, it is able to increase the supply of money. However, printing more money causes borrowing to increase creating a financial bubble. I urge you to watch “Principles for Dealing with the...
Yen Support Aims to Cool Dollar, Delay Iran Risk
The vol controllers are definitely trying to strengthen the Yen here to make the US dollar go lower. They know the USD wrecking ball was at a point it was about to wreak havoc if it broke higher. JPY/USD most important currency...
Ethiopia Holds Key Rate for Sixth Time as Oil Shock Rekindles Inflation Fears
The National Bank of Ethiopia kept its benchmark lending rate at 15 percent for a sixth consecutive meeting, maintaining a tight monetary stance as global oil prices surged to about $105 per barrel. The central bank cited inflation containment despite a...
Christopher Kent: Reassessing Australian Financial Conditions
In his KangaNews address, Christopher Kent explained how the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Board evaluates financial conditions every six weeks to set the cash rate. He defined financial conditions as the cost and availability of credit, exchange rates...
Lisa D Cook: Reflections on Financial Stability
Lisa D. Cook, a Federal Reserve Governor and chair of the Committee on Financial Stability, reflected on the Fed’s evolving approach to systemic risk. She highlighted the Committee’s 2014 creation, the Financial Stability Report’s focus on four vulnerability channels, and the...
USDCAD Moved Above a Swing Area and Increases the Bullish Bias.
The USDCAD pair has broken back above the 1.3924‑1.3937 swing zone, shifting the bias firmly bullish. Buyers are anchored by a solid 61.8% retracement floor at 1.3888 and have kept the price above the 200‑bar moving average. Technical momentum points...
Buy EUR/JPY Pullback, Target 183.86
Macro: EUR/JPY rebounds; USDX falls. Factors: hourly convergence, ATR 102 vs 90d 115 pips. Risk: USDX reversal, JOLTS. Insight: Buy the small pullback; target 183.86. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Trade40 Launches Multi‑Asset Platform to Democratize Retail Trading
Trade40 introduced a new multi‑asset trading platform that lets retail investors trade forex, equities, commodities and more from a single interface. The service emphasizes real‑time execution, integrated analytics and tiered support to attract both beginners and seasoned traders.
Peso Plunges Toward ₱61 per US Dollar Amid Oil Surge
The Philippine peso fell to a new low of ₱60.75 per dollar (≈ $1 = ₱60.75) on March 31, as rising oil prices and risk‑off sentiment lifted the US dollar. Trading volume slipped to $1.59 billion from $2.01 billion, and analysts expect the peso to hover...
InvestingLive Asia-Pacific FX News: Trump Open to Ending War without Hormuz Opening (WSJ)
Geopolitical tensions in the Gulf intensified as Iran struck a Kuwaiti oil tanker in Dubai, igniting a fire, while Saudi Arabia intercepted eight Iranian ballistic missiles aimed at Riyadh. Explosions erupted in Iran’s Isfahan amid U.S. and Israeli strikes, and...
Vetted FX Brokers vs Elite Trader: Which Is Better for Comparing Forex Brokers?
Choosing a forex broker now requires more than marketing promises, as traders face hundreds of platforms with varying spreads, execution speeds, and regulatory status. Review sites like Vetted FX Brokers and community forums such as Elite Trader have emerged to fill the information...
BoE Warns Industrial Policy Can Fuel Harmful Trade Surpluses
The Bank of England continues to be among the few major central banks to warn about the adverse effects of persistent trade imbalances. Although most models used by economists assume that trade is balanced, or is unbalanced only temporarily before...
Fed Pledges Policy Actions to Sustain Low Inflation Expectations
Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid: Inflation expectations have been low because the central bank has previously acted to make sure inflation will stay low. "It is now our job to follow through with policy actions that validate those expectations."
PBOC Sets USD/ CNY Central Rate at 6.9194 (Vs. Estimate at 6.9209)
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central reference rate at 6.9194 for the trading session, marginally stronger than the 6.9209 consensus estimate. The yuan is permitted to fluctuate within a +/-2% band around this benchmark. In parallel,...
Central Banks' Dollar Reserves Inch up, Growth Still Modest
Dollar reserves held by the world's central banks rose a bit in q4 -- But the broad story remains one of modest reserves growth relative to the global economy, or the pace of reserves growth from 03 to 13 1/ https://t.co/B7D4KndRLn
South Korean Won Hits Weakest Since 2009
JUST IN: South Korean Won falls to weakest level against the U.S. dollar since 2009
Dollar Wraps Up Best Month Since 2022 Amid War in Middle East
The U.S. dollar is on track for its strongest month since September 2022, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index up roughly 3% in March. The surge is driven by the outbreak of war in the Middle East, which has disrupted energy...
Venezuela's Bolivar Plummets 83%, Calls for Dollarization
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Venezuelan bolivar ranks as the WORLD'S WORST currency. The bolivar has depreciated by over 83% against the USD in the past year. VENEZUELA’S TOP PRIORITY = OFFICIAL DOLLARIZATION. https://t.co/AUN4GLdvgF
Live NY Open Scalping Session: Ride the Market Rollercoaster
Market continues to be a Rollercoaster hand made for scalping all day join us to see how we do it 9am Live Trading NY Open https://t.co/K8PKB2mO53 via @YouTube
BOJ Flags Inflation Upside From Oil Surge and Weak Yen, Eyes Rate Hike
The Bank of Japan warned that higher global oil prices and a persistently weak yen are amplifying upside inflation risks, potentially forcing a policy rate increase toward 1.5%. The staff paper signals that corporate pricing flexibility and tighter labour markets...
Euro, Pound Near Key Levels as Billions in Options Expire
$Eur approaching $1.15. Between today and tomorrow around 6.5 bln euros of options expire. $GBP approaching $1.3250 where GBP650 mln options expire today. https://t.co/bSx6eAhEKQ
Eurozone Inflation Surprise: Core Goods and Services Fall
🇪🇺 Euro area HICP flash estimate came in below expectations, with both core goods (-23bp) and services inflation (-13bp) down in March. Early days, focus will be any signs of second-round effects, etc etc. https://t.co/AaktjkVaKZ
RBI's $100 Million Forex Cap Sends Rupee to 95/$ Low, Triggers 130‑Paise Rally
The Reserve Bank of India imposed a $100 million cap on banks' net open foreign‑exchange positions, pushing the rupee to an all‑time low of 95 per dollar. The sudden clamp‑down sparked a sharp 130‑paise rally as banks scrambled to unwind $40 billion...
Zimbabwe's Central Bank Halts M2 Data Since 2025
The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe hasn't officially released M2 Money Supply data since December 2025. ZIM = A MASTERCLASS IN POOR ECONOMIC DATA. https://t.co/19E41X3pxN
Central Banks, Not Treasuries, Curb Debt Monetization
Indeed no Treasury has ever said "stop monetizing debt, that's inflationary." It is the independent central bank's job to push back on debt monetization.
Assessing AI Powered Price Forecasting Tools in Currency Markets
Artificial intelligence is reshaping foreign‑exchange trading by offering sophisticated price‑forecasting models, yet the gap between back‑tested performance and live market results raises doubts about claimed accuracy. The article explains that AI tools use advanced architectures—RNNs, CNNs, transformers—and ingest diverse data,...
Powell Denies QE's Role in Inflation and Inequality, Lies
Today, in a speech at Harvard, Fed Chair Powell claimed that QE (the explosion of the money supply) did not cause inflation, nor did it contribute to the massive increase in US income inequality post-COVID. Those statements are blatantly UNTRUE. THE FED...
USD Poised for Post‑month‑end Reversal Despite Current Hedging
Month end comes at a most interesting time for the DXY. The market was super complacent in early March and now appears to be hedged a fair bit as risk reversals have blown out in EURUSD etc (bid for EUR puts). I...
Eurozone Confidence and Inflation Data Poised to Steer European Equities
Investors are bracing for the Eurozone Economic Confidence Index and flash inflation numbers from Germany, while Spain’s retail sales data is due early Tuesday. The releases are expected to dictate risk appetite across European equities, with the euro’s softness and...
MAS Poised to Tighten Singdollar Policy in April as Oil Prices Surge 60% Month
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) is expected to tighten its exchange‑rate policy in April, targeting a stronger Singapore dollar to offset a 60% monthly rise in Brent crude to $115.58. Analysts warn the move could dampen export competitiveness as...
Month-End Flows Point to Dollar Buying Into the Fix - BofA
Bank of America’s month‑end fixing model shows the U.S. dollar as the clear beneficiary as March and Q1 close, forecasting material inflows of about one standard deviation into USD assets. The model also predicts modest euro inflows and outflows from...
Market Outlook for the Week of 30th March - 3rd April
The week ahead is data‑heavy, with Eurozone inflation, U.S. payrolls and retail sales, and Canada’s GDP on the calendar. Energy‑price pressure from the Iran conflict could push euro‑area inflation higher, complicating the ECB’s path to price stability. In the United...
What Are the Main Events for Today?
German inflation data, driven by higher energy prices, is set to rise sharply in March, prompting the ECB to consider a June rate hike despite likely looking through the spike. Market pricing reflects a 55% probability of an April hike...
Yen Hits Weakest Level Since 1980s Market Crash
The Japanese Yen (JPY) sits at an uncomfortable precipice. It’s not been this weak since the 1980s when the Japanese stock market collapsed.
Bank of England Joins Imbalance Club as Asia Surplus Swells
Happy to welcome the Bank of England to the growing club of "imbalancistas" Would just note that if they used the 2025 data rather than the 2024, the return of imbalances would be even more apparent. Asia's surplus went...
Rial Strengthens 9% Amid US‑Israeli Conflict, Media Silent
Since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran, the Iranian rial has APPRECIATED by 9% against the USD. AN IMPORTANT FACT THAT THE WESTERN MEDIA HAS FAILED TO REPORT ON. https://t.co/Dlt04mOOmJ
US Dollar Reserve Share Hits 31‑Year Low Amid Diversification
Status of US Dollar as Global Reserve Currency: USD Share Drops to 31-Year Low as Central Banks Diversify into Other Currencies & Gold. The spike of the “non-traditional reserve currencies.” https://t.co/cHnT24iCcd https://t.co/kINZT79BbA
Dollar Poised to Surge Toward 105.50 Target
Dollar seems like it wants to rip... 105.50 target if so $USD $UUP $DXY @stockcharts https://t.co/UiwZRpV53z
Powell Refuses to Entertain Warsh's Rate‑cut Pitch
Powell is asked by an undergrad what he thinks about Kevin Warsh trying to come into the Fed and cut rates in the current environment. Powell: "That’s not something I’m going to swing at, that pitch."
The Dollar’s Secret Global Journey: Cash Hoards to Stablecoins
💵From Belarus vaults to Miami cash hubs, the U.S. dollar has a global life most of us never see. Former Fed economist, Ruth Judson, joins me on the podcast to unpack global cash hoards, counterfeit networks, and the rise...
Powell Warns Confidence Precedes Grasp of Rising Risks
Powell downplays dissent on the Fed's board and says you would expect disagreement when there are both downside employment and upside inflation risks that are growing. "Confidence is what you feel before you really understand the problem."
Euro Faces Steepest Quarterly Drop Since 2024
Euro is poised for worst quarter since 2024 as oil shock bites https://t.co/Z3N3DfLpbB via @vkaramanis_fx https://t.co/yjLvpdnvVF
Turkey's Overheated Growth Fuels Deficits, Risks Shock
The danger for Turkey is always the same. The current government pushes growth way above the speed limit, which leads to a large current account deficit. Then a shock like high oil prices hits and things run out of control....
Turkey's Reserves Plunge, Echoing 2025 Devaluation After Mayor's Arrest
Turkey's reserve losses rival March 2025 after the arrest of Ekrem İmamoğlu. They're up in the most recent data point only because the central bank used its gold to get access to more foreign exchange. In March 2025 this ended...
Dollar Gains, Yen Rises Amid Middle East Tensions
US Dollar's Advance Continues but Verbal Threats Lift the Yen: The Middle East war rages on. The Houthis have entered the fray and there is risk that it shuts the Bab El-Mandeb Strait. Aluminum and steel facilities have been reportedly...
USD Strengthens While JPY Pulls Back Amid BOJ Intervention
$USD is mostly firmer. $JPY is the notable exception. Escalated verbal intervention and news that the BOJ would consider a larger than usual rater move, have encouraged a pullback from around JPY160.40. NY may be less worried about intervention....
European Consumer Inflation Expectations Surge, Business Outlook Remains Tame
🇪🇺Another unsurprising yet unpleasant chart, showing a sharp rise in European consumer inflation expectations. Expectations from companies were much more contained though. The bigger focus will be on potential second round effects, too early to tell. https://t.co/zQ567go12i
FX Reserve Decline Driven by Oil Importers, Not Exporters
Lots of talk about oil exporters in the Gulf selling fx reserves. That may happen. But for now the visible fall in fx reserves is coming from the oil importers (CBRT = Turkey, RBI= India) https://t.co/8prQkznGG6
Reverse Carry Trade Triggers Japan Panic, Author Confident
Japan will panic. I’m fucking right. This is the reverse carry trade catalyst. It always was. I never wavered. I went through hell. I suffered managing funds in a horrible cycle that didn’t favor them. Enough. Enough. Enough. I will not relent. It’s my time now.