Today's Currencies Pulse
Rupee flat on hopes West Asia truce will hold
The Indian rupee held steady as markets priced in hopes that a West Asia truce would hold, hovering near ₹95.78 per dollar after slipping 8 paise in early trade. Traders kept a close eye on geopolitical developments while the currency remained largely unchanged.
Iran War Volatility Leads to 22% Leap in March 2026 Institutional FX Trading Volumes
The outbreak of war in Iran and the broader Middle East sparked extreme market volatility in March 2026, driving a sharp rise in institutional foreign‑exchange trading. Across leading eFX venues—FXSpotStream, Cboe FX, EuronextFX and Deutsche Börse’s 360 T—average daily volumes jumped between 14% and 27%, yielding an overall 22% month‑over‑month increase. Cboe FX recorded a $74.46 billion ADV, up 24.8% from February, while EuronextFX posted a $39.71 billion ADV, up 27.7%. FXSpotStream’s total ADV reached $173.6 billion, and 360 T’s ADV rose to $48.92 billion, reflecting heightened demand for liquidity amid geopolitical stress.
Traders Prematurely Betting on BOE Rate Hike
Bailey says traders are getting ahead of themselves on BOE rate hike bets https://t.co/eeKELZndt9 via @tomelleryrees https://t.co/kDqxSw5RoE
RBI’s Latest Attempt to Shield Rupee May Bring Near-Term Rebound
India’s central bank has moved to curb speculation on the rupee by prohibiting banks from offering non‑deliverable forwards (NDFs) to both resident and non‑resident clients, effective immediately. The RBI also reinforced a $100 million daily position limit for banks, aiming to...
Azerbaijan Central Bank Holds USD/Manat Rate at 1.7 Manat
The Central Bank of Azerbaijan announced on April 1 that the official U.S. dollar to manat rate stayed at 1.7 manat, unchanged from the previous day. The move, alongside stable euro, lira and ruble rates, underscores a steady monetary stance...
Treasury Yields Rise on Hopes of Iran Conflict De‑Escalation
U.S. Treasury yields rose modestly on Tuesday as investors cheered emerging signs that the Iran‑related conflict could de‑escalate. Statements from President Donald Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian sparked a cross‑asset rally, lifting stocks, easing the dollar and nudging yields higher.
USD Nears 100 Mark After Trump Speech
#USD giving a stretch after President Trump's speech. First test here at the slope confluence just shy of 100. . Key resistance still 100.15/35 Near-term bullish inval still 99.49/53 $DXY 240min Chart
No Need for a Rate Hike Unless Inflation Spikes: Economists
Indian economists briefed the Reserve Bank of India that a rate hike is unnecessary as long as inflation stays within the 2‑6% tolerance band. The discussion, held amid the West Asia war and soaring Brent crude at $110‑$120 per barrel,...
IMF Flags Iran War as Asymmetric Global Shock; GCC Buffers Growth While Emerging Markets Brace
The IMF warned that the Iran war is delivering a global but asymmetric shock, bolstering Gulf Cooperation Council economies as a growth anchor while exposing emerging markets to heightened inflation and balance‑of‑payments stress. Malaysia’s central bank lifted its 2026 growth...
NZDUSD Backs Off After 200 Hour Is Approached and Sellers Lean
The NZD/USD pair surged but stalled at key technical levels, failing to sustain a break above the 38.2% retracement around 0.57714 and the 200‑hour moving average at 0.57808. After peaking at 0.57764, price reversed and is now testing the 100‑hour...
Colombian Central Bank Interest Rate Hike
On April 1, 2026, the Central Bank of Colombia voted 4‑2‑1 to raise its benchmark rate by a full percentage point to 11.25%, after a similar move in February. Inflation has fallen sharply from 18.3% in March 2023 to 4.8% in mid‑2025, yet...
Iran War Drives Oil to $118, Eurozone Inflation Hits 2.5% and Dollar Slides
The Iran war has sent Brent crude to $118 a barrel, lifted Eurozone inflation to 2.5% in March and knocked the U.S. dollar index 0.6% lower. Energy‑price shocks are now the dominant driver of price pressures across Europe and are...
RBI Bans Banks From NDFs, Rebooking, Related‑party Forwards
Rbi saw that banks moved their positions to corporates or perhaps related parties and have said: Banks can't offer ndf rupee contracts to anyone If you close a contract from now, no rebooking, even if it's a deliverables contract. Banks can't deal...
Undervalued RMB Functions Like Massive Trade Tariff
Good Setser thread on a recent report on global imbalances. By the way, if the RMB is indeed 20-30% undervalued, that is the functional equivalent of a 25-43% tariff on all imports and a 20-30% subsidy on all exports. The Trump...
Could Fed Liquidity Plunge By Half?
The Federal Reserve has outlined a plan to shrink its balance sheet by roughly $1.7 trillion, effectively halving the liquidity it provides to markets. The proposal assumes a high degree of coordination between the Treasury and the Fed, as well as...
Targeting GBPUSD Reversal with Buy Limit at 1.32787
Let’s try to catch the reversal move on GBPUSD. 🎯 🔻 Buy Limit: 1.32787 🛑 Stop Loss: 1.32184 🎯 Take Profit: 1.33952
Japan Business Mood Improves as BOJ Weighs Rate Hike Chance
Japan’s large‑manufacturer business sentiment rose for a fourth straight quarter in the January‑March 2026 period, according to the Bank of Japan’s latest survey. The improvement comes as the BOJ signals it may raise interest rates later this year, a shift...
Why Europe Is Unlikely to Face an Inflation Surge
The European Central Bank (ECB) missed early warning signs of inflation in 2021‑22, prompting a delayed and aggressive tightening cycle. A new energy-price shock triggered by the Iran war has revived concerns, but the ECB now signals a faster, more...
RBI Says 98.45 Pc of Withdrawn Rs 2,000 Banknotes Returned
The Reserve Bank of India reported that 98.45% of the Rs 2,000 banknotes withdrawn in May 2023 have been returned to the system. The original stock of Rs 2,000 notes, worth roughly $43 billion, fell to about $660 million by March 31 2026. Exchange facilities at 19...
Fed President Signals Rate Hold, Open to Adjustments
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem: “I expect the current setting of the policy rate will remain appropriate for some time.” "I could support additional easing if a greater risk of a weakening labor market becomes apparent, provided inflation and inflation...
Nigerian Naira Holds Near ₦1,385 per Dollar on Strong Autonomous Supply
The naira opened at ₦1,385.27 per dollar on April 1, with traders citing abundant autonomous supply and system liquidity exceeding ₦8 trillion ($5.8 bn). The stability comes despite a modest dip in gross reserves, underscoring the role of Nigeria’s oil earnings and...
Nigeria's Debt to Surge Past N155 Trillion After Senate OKs $6 Bn Loan
President Bola Tinubu’s request for a $6 billion foreign‑currency loan was approved by the Senate in under four hours, pushing Nigeria’s total sovereign debt to N155.1 trillion (about $111 billion). The borrowing, split between a $5 bn structured swap with First Abu Dhabi Bank...
ADP Jobs Beat, Oil Inventories Drop Ahead of Fed Talk
📊 Pre-Market Brief | Wed, Apr 1 ─────── 📅 MACRO DATA Crude Oil Inventories: Est 1.8 | Prior 6.9 ISM Manufacturing PMI: Est 52.3 | Prior 52.4 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Act 62 | Est 41 | Prior 66 🟢 ─────── 💰 MAG 7 EARNINGS None this week 🏛️...
China’s 90% Model Threatens Global Industries
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐄𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐲 𝐓𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐂𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐃𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐨𝐲 𝐘𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐲 In my latest interview on @ndtv , India's leading English-language business news channel, I break down 𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚'𝐬 90% 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥: 𝐚𝐧 𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐲 𝐝𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐣𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐞𝐭𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐬𝐲𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐠𝐥𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐥 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐞𝐭𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. China builds...
How Automated Forex Bots Help Traders Manage Market Volatility
Automated forex bots are gaining traction as traders seek to tame the constant volatility of the global currency market. By monitoring price movements and executing predefined strategies in real time, bots deliver millisecond‑level trade execution that manual traders cannot match....
Dollar Set to Rise Through 2027, Target 110?
$DXY monthly - Closed above the 10 month MA. The 3 year cycle low in January is confirmed. The rising phase of the previous 3 year cycles lasted at least 18 months, so the Dollar is likely to move higher...
CBDC Leaders Still Back Cash, Not Eliminating It
Is this what passes as scholarship at the @OMFIF these days? "Don’t kill cash - OMFIF" No CBDC-building nation has proposed the elimination of cash. Look at China and India as examples of the two largest. Both...
Iran War Pushing India to Edge of a Currency Crisis
India's rupee has slid another 5.5% this year, making it Asia's worst performer in 2025 and hovering around 95 per dollar. Rising Brent crude above $100 a barrel has added roughly $5 billion to India's monthly oil import bill, intensifying pressure...
BOJ Policymaker Asada: How to Deal with Stagflation Is a Hard Question for Monetary Policy
Bank of Japan (BOJ) policymaker Kazuo Asada warns that rising oil prices are driving a stagflationary mix of higher inflation and weaker growth, posing a tough dilemma for monetary policy. Asada, a newly appointed member known for his Modern Monetary...
Gold Crash Makes It Cheaper Than Ever
I sat down with @GoldSwitzerland partner Matthew Piepenburg, a former hedge fund trader who made millions during the dot-com bubble at 28, and author of "Rigged to Fail." Gold just crashed 25%. He says buy more. "Gold is not rising to an...
Dollar Index Stalls Near 100.5, Reverses Lows
The US Dollar Index $USD $DXY failed at 100.50.. but finished off the lows today.. part of my Q2 intermarket outlook on @stockcharts https://t.co/qdLp18p3Jz https://t.co/XJ3rTFsHGI
FX Alert : Peace Whispers Ignite a Full Blown Risk On Stampede
The FX market is pricing an end to the Middle‑East war before any formal peace, igniting a short‑squeeze‑driven risk‑on rally. Dollar weakness is accelerating as safe‑haven demand fades and Fed expectations turn dovish. Oil remains above $100 a barrel, with...
Billions in FX Options Expire Tomorrow Across EUR, JPY, AUD
Interesting FX Option Expirations Tomorrow 1.4 bln euros at $1.1650 $1.7 bln JPY159 and $1.5 bln at JPY160 A$1.14 bln at $0.6900.
U.S. Dollar Index Remains Boring Amid Forecast Hype
i've said it before and i'll say it again, the U.S. dollar index $DXY has got to be one of the most boring 🥱🥱🥱charts out there... and my enthusiasm feels inversely correlated to those that like to prognoticate about it......
StanChart Among First Banks to Launch FPS Cross-Border Payment Service for Offshore Fin Institutions
Standard Chartered Bank Hong Kong (SCBHK) has become one of the first banks in Hong Kong to offer a Faster Payment System (FPS) cross‑border service for offshore financial institutions and PayTech firms. The service enables real‑time, 24‑hour settlement of payments up...
Hope Fuels Risk Appetite, Weakens Dollar Amid Middle East Conflict
Hope Boosts Risk Appetites and Drags the Greenback Lower: Hope springs eternal, and the capital markets are trading on hope that the Middle East war ends shortly, even as missiles continue to be fired in the region. President Trump again...
South Sudan Blind Without Money Supply Data Since Oct 2024
South Sudan’s government hasn’t produced RELIABLE MONEY SUPPLY DATA since October 2024. SOUTH SUDAN = NO RELIABLE DATA = FLYING BLIND https://t.co/nPGh0aY8rq
The Future-Ready CFO: Transforming Disruption Into Opportunity
The article outlines how the modern CFO is evolving from a traditional number‑keeper to a strategic, technology‑enabled leader who drives agility, sustainability, and value creation. It highlights real‑time treasury alerts, AI‑powered scenario planning, and sustainability‑linked financing as everyday tools for...
Libyan Dinar Plummets, Ranks 5th Worst Globally
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Libyan dinar ranks as the WORLD'S 5TH WORST CURRENCY. The dinar has depreciated by over 26% against the USD in the past year. LIBYA = ANOTHER REGIME CHANGE FAILURE = A FAILED STATE. https://t.co/3GHuHYqn9N
Trade Big Reports Effectively with These Simple Tips
With so many big reports this week, here’s some tips on how to trade them
European Fiscal Support for High Energy Prices Still Targeted and Temporary
European governments are rolling out €200 billion (≈$215 billion) of fiscal relief to cushion households and energy‑intensive firms from soaring energy costs. The aid, delivered through cash transfers, tax rebates and temporary price caps, is deliberately narrow‑based and time‑limited, with most measures...
USD-Backed Stablecoins Fuel Nigeria’s Trade Amid FX Uncertainty
Fintech Verto’s CEO Ola Oyetayo says Nigeria’s recent naira volatility has pushed businesses toward USD‑backed stablecoins for cross‑border trade. Traditional banking liquidity dried up, prompting payment providers to use mixed local and global pools and dynamic pricing. The Central Bank...
Rupee May Hit Record 100 per Dollar Amid Iran Crisis
JUST IN: Analysts predict the Indian rupee could drop to a record 100 against the dollar or further if the Iran crisis persists.
Stronger Baht Hurts Travel
Thailand’s baht hovering between 30 and 32 per U.S. dollar threatens tourism competitiveness, with a worst‑case scenario of a stronger baht (>30/USD) potentially eroding 15‑17% of revenue. The Thai Hotels Association projects Songkran holiday bookings to fall 5‑10% year‑on‑year as...
RBA Caught in ‘Catch-22’ on Interest Rates
Australian consumer sentiment has collapsed to a 53‑year low, according to the ANZ‑Roy Morgan weekly confidence index. All sub‑indices, including current and future household finances, fell to their weakest levels since the series began in 1985. The decline follows two...
President Regrets Appointing Central Banker Who Defied Rate Cuts
Wild story: President appoints someone to the central bank recommended by his own finance minister. The appointee resists the president's demands to approve bigger rate cuts, and now the president says he "stupidly" followed the minister's advice, leading to "the...
Foreign Central Banks Dump US Treasuries Amid Iran Conflict
"Foreign central banks sell US Treasuries in wake of Iran war" https://t.co/B4oQiLaXmS "Foreign central banks are selling US bonds at a time when the Treasury market is already under pressure as traders worry that the Middle East conflict could drive...
Foreign Central Banks Slash Treasury Holdings to 2012 Low
Foreign central banks have cut their holdings of Treasuries at the New York Fed to the lowest level since 2012. The selling has come as oil importers like Turkey, Thailand and India raise cash through asset sales to prop up...
SNB's Q4 Currency Sales May Boost Franc
SNB sold currencies in the final quarter in potential buoy for the franc https://t.co/pLEKZ4nQQm via @bbenrath https://t.co/q6YkgIMsAJ
Yuan's Global Reserve Share Declines Over Five Years
Well, there are a lot of meanings of global reserves currency that go beyond the currency held in formal foreign exchange reserves. But the yuan's share of reserves has actually slipped over the last 5 years 1/2 https://t.co/h07pcXMaYn
EUR/USD Nears Critical Resistance: Breakout or Reversal?
Euro Short-term Outlook: EUR/USD Rally Nears Key Resistance- Breakout or Reversal? https://t.co/ypoVnQZs85 $EURUSD Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/uyx4RRC6OM