Today's Currencies Pulse
RBI logs record $53.13B net dollar sale as rupee slides 9.5%
The Reserve Bank of India recorded its largest net dollar sale in at least 15 years, disposing of $53.13 billion in FY 26, more than double the $25.52 billion sold in FY 23. The rupee weakened about 9.5% against the dollar, prompting heavy RBI intervention in both spot and forward markets, where forward‑market net sales hit a historic negative $103.06 billion in March 2026.
BSP Seen Unlikely to Rush Into Hawkish Action
Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is unlikely to raise interest rates immediately despite oil prices breaching $100 per barrel. Inflation remains modest at 2.4%, within the central bank’s 2‑4% target, and the BSP recently cut its policy rate to 4.25% to aid a sluggish economy. However, prolonged high oil prices and a weakening peso, which fell to a record 59.735 per dollar, could shift risk toward tighter policy. Governor Eli Remolona warned a rate hike may follow if oil stays elevated and the dollar continues rallying.
It Was Unthinkable a Couple of Weeks Ago, but Could the Next Move by the Fed Be a Rate Hike?
The Federal Reserve’s March 18 meeting may break the recent easing trend as traders assign a roughly 25% probability to a rate hike, driven by a sharp oil‑price surge linked to the Iran conflict. Chief economist Carl Weinberg warns that...
Battle-Weary Fed Confronts Another Supply Shock
The Federal Reserve is confronting a new supply‑side shock that threatens to revive inflationary pressures as geopolitical tensions persist. Central banks are diverging, with Australia likely to raise rates again while Europe and the UK pause policy tightening. This split...
Global Economy Faces Growing Complexity and Uncertainty
Please find below the links to my weekly look at what has become a much more complicated and uncertain situation for the global economy and markets. linkedin.com/pulse/weekly-look-global-economy-markets-mohamed-el-erian-shp3e/?trackingId=vXKBwDM3QxqdFHY2kfbOrQ%3D%3D&lipi=urn%3Ali%3Apage%3Ad_flagship3_detail_base%3BXcJdDTIXTiGfbxaVzWx6xA%3D%3D https://open.substack.com/pub/mohamedelerian/p/the-weekly-look-at-the-global-economy-372?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web #economy
Oil Shock Boosts Dollar, Weakens Euro and Asian Currencies
I don’t know how much clearer I could have been in the latest roundup. 1) the price of oil doubled in a week and the Hormuz closure is 100x works for European and Asian markets. Therefore as long as it...
Interest Rates Hold ‘Almost Certain’ as Trump Rules Out Deal with Iran
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee is expected to keep the base rate unchanged at 3.75% as the Middle‑East war fuels higher energy prices and fresh inflation risks. Economists had pencilled in a rate cut after January’s inflation dip...
Qatar, Kuwait Will Dump US Assets Amid GDP Collapse
If their GDP drops 14%, do you think Qatar and Kuwait will: a) Slash government outlays (thereby risking domestic unrest), or; b) Sell USTs & US equities “until their hands bleed” to raise USDs to buy needed goods to try to...
Why a Fed Rate Cut Now Signals Trouble
My week ahead article: It Would Probably Be a Bad Sign if the Fed Cut Now – Here’s Why https://t.co/iRgDsoYaOg https://t.co/HWPl79e8Ez
FX Week in Review: Taurex CEO Returns, Trive Owner Banned, CFDs Broker Loses FCA License, FPFX Investor, Prop Prediction Markets
The FCA barred Kasim Garipoglu, the Trive owner, for honesty and integrity failures, prompting heightened regulatory scrutiny across the FX and CFD sector. Quadcode secured a significant strategic stake in Game 7, the parent of FPFX Tech, bolstering its foothold in prop‑trading...
Trump’s War Jolts Global Central Banks From Fed to ECB to BOJ
Global central banks are preparing to evaluate the economic fallout from the two‑week US‑Iran conflict. In the coming week, policymakers from the United States, Eurozone, United Kingdom, Japan and other major jurisdictions will announce decisions that could signal a new...
Patience, Structure, and Liquidity Drive Smart SMC Trades
Smart Money Concept (SMC) Buy Entry 📈🔥 Patience and precision create the best trades. This setup shows a clean SMC buy entry with confirmation from BOS, FVG, and Order Block, aligning perfectly with market structure. Understanding liquidity and waiting for the right moment...
Newsquawk Week Ahead Highlights (and Week in Review) 16-20th March 2026
The week ahead is dominated by high‑profile diplomatic and monetary events, starting with a US‑China meeting in Paris that will discuss extending the tariff truce and a 25 million‑ton soybean purchase agreement. Nvidia’s GTC will showcase its Vera Rubin GPU roadmap...
Fiat Currency Levels Dominate Markets; Gold Is Niche
It actually doesn’t make it a moot point. Bc single most important variable in global markets is relative level of fiat currencies. If you only care about gold, consider yourself fortunate to be in the .0001% of people on the...
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Understanding Reserve Currencies: The Role of the U.S. Dollar
The U.S. dollar remains the dominant global reserve currency, accounting for about 57% of disclosed reserves in Q3 2025, down from a peak of 72% in 2001. IMF data show the euro (20%), yen (6%), pound sterling (5%), Canadian dollar (3%)...
Fed Independence Now Secured by Courts, Not Norms
The Fed won a sweeping court victory Friday. But the fact that it needed one tells you everything about how much has changed. The unsealed filings are something else—the Fed catalogued 100 Trump attacks on Powell and told a court...
Dollar Index Breaks High, Signals Strong 2027 Trend
$DXY - Broke out above its November high. The 3 year cycle low is confirmed. The Dollar is headed higher into 2027. The question is will the current cycle be a not so bullish cycle like the last one, or...
Japan, South Korea Ready to Act Against FX Volatility, Ministers Say
Japan and South Korea’s finance ministers voiced serious concern over the sharp depreciation of the yen and won, saying they stand ready to act against excessive foreign‑exchange volatility. The yen slipped to its lowest level in 20 months, hovering near...
Market Fear Matches 2022 Levels Despite Complacency
How big is the market fear factor? The 4 charts on the left show what's going on in spot markets. The 4 on the right show options markets. Compared to Russia's invasion of Ukraine 4 years ago, we're now at...
Elliott Wave Analysis of EURUSD – March 16th, 2026
EURUSD slipped another 200 pips this week, marking a second consecutive decline as market expectations shift away from further Federal Reserve rate cuts. The move reflects heightened inflation risk and a stronger dollar, prompting analysts to apply Elliott Wave theory...
Decentering the Dollar: A Conversation
The Peterson Institute for International Economics hosted a high‑profile conversation titled “Decentering the Dollar,” featuring former Dutch central bank governor Klaas Knot and renowned economist Maurice Obstfeld. The panel examined how the Trump administration’s trade and geopolitical shifts could undermine...
Iran Shifts Oil Payments to Yuan, Undermining Dollar Dominance
Iran has stated it will allow tankers through the Strait of Hormuz - but only for shipments paid for in Chinese yuan rather than US dollars. The dollar is THE standard currency of the fossil fuel trade. Iran didn’t just announce...
EUR/USD Plummets 5% to Seven‑Month Low, Tests Support
Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Crashes to Seven-Month Lows- 5% Drop Exposes Pivotal Support https://t.co/xPrn5Ir44G $EURUSD Monthly & Weekly Charts https://t.co/G3WNmBzkgW
Gundlach Unlocked: Positioning for Inflation and a Weaker Dollar
In the debut episode of Gundlach Unlocked, DoubleLine founder Jeffrey Gundlach warned that inflation is likely to stay above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target and that long‑term rates have stalled despite recent cuts. He also sees the U.S. dollar entering a...
War Disruption Drives Hawkish Stance Across G10 Central Banks
New weekly drops. The war's disruption shapes the investment climate. Hawkish holds by seven of the 8 G10 central banks that meet. RBA could hike. Brazil had indicated a cut before the war. Still seems reasonable....
Middle East War Drives Policy Swings as G10 Banks Convene
Week Ahead: Eight of the G10 Central Banks Meet, Maybe One Moves: The Middle East War dominates the investment climate. The inflationary implications are first order considerations and there has been a large swing in expectations of central bank policy…...
BOJ Seen Waiting Till April for Rate Hike Amid Iran War Turbulence
The Bank of Japan is expected to keep its policy rate at 0.75% at the March 2026 meeting, postponing any hike until at least April. Market participants cite heightened volatility from the Iran‑Israel conflict and surging energy prices as key...
Treasury Tapped Parallel Dollar Market, Used $2.5B, Made Profit
👀 💵Remember the fuss about Bessent conducting an ESF-funded fx swap exchange to support the Argentinian peso back in October 2025? We now have the details of those transactions via the quarterly reporting Congress requires for Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund operations. They...
US‑Iran Conflict and Monetary Policy Dominate Next Week’s Market Outlook
It looks like we will be focused on two things next week: 1. The economic impact of the US-Iran conflict 2. Monetary Policy Look at the laundry list of central bank decisions on tap... All of them are expected to hold, but we...
Barclays Pushes Back Expectations for Fed Rate Cuts
Barclays economists now expect the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut in September 2024, pushing the next reduction to March 2027. This postpones the earlier June and September 2024 cuts the bank had forecast. Market pricing has collapsed to just 22.5...
Smart Money Pinpoints Buy Zone, Fair Value Gap Ahead
Perfect Buy Zone identified with Smart Money Concepts. Price swept liquidity from the demand zone and created a strong Break of Structure, leaving a Fair Value Gap for potential continuation. Discipline and patience always pay in the market. #ForexTrading #SmartMoneyConcept #PriceAction #ForexEducation...
After the Petrodollar
In 1974 Henry Kissinger secured an informal pact that required Saudi Arabia to price oil exclusively in U.S. dollars, creating the petrodollar system that channeled massive dollar surpluses into Treasury securities. The arrangement underpinned America’s ability to run large fiscal deficits...
Week 12 VIX Peaks as Central Banks Hold Rates
Looking ahead to next week - we have a laundry list of central bank rate decisions (almost all holding) with critical forecast updates at a critical time - like the #FOMC SEC. Historically, the 12th week of the year is the...
Can Gold Reach $5,000 While DXY Stays Above 100?
Anyone know how we could possibly have gold over $5,000 with the DXY over $100? https://t.co/S8n1xWP4PR
India’s Forex Reserves Fall $11.68 Billion to $716.81 Billion, Biggest Drop in over a Year
India’s foreign‑exchange reserves dropped to $716.81 billion for the week ended March 6, a decline of $11.68 billion from the prior week—the steepest fall in more than a year. The Reserve Bank of India sold roughly $6.1 billion of dollars to defend the rupee...
Printing US Dollars to Revive Post‑communist Economies
They will print US dollars to rebuild economies after being ravaged from communism and tyranny.
ECB's Villeroy Says Rate Hike Not Timely Next Week
ECB’s Villeroy says it isn’t the right moment to raise rates next week https://t.co/fTpHRzxngU via @WHorobin https://t.co/zJ4KHlvUAN
RBI Net Buys Record $6.2 Billion Debt to Shield Bonds From War Shockwaves
The Reserve Bank of India purchased a record 572.10 billion rupees (about $6.2 billion) of government bonds in the week ending 6 March, marking its third straight week of net buying. The purchases are part of a broader liquidity infusion strategy aimed at...
ECB's Panetta: Private Sector Drives Cross‑border Payments
ECB’s Panetta says the private sector is key in cross-border payments https://t.co/dYdaPPXjLl via @Alemrome https://t.co/dkpP47DCou
USD Reserve Status Threatened If Commodity Contracts Fail
Good point & good question - what happens to the USD's reserve status if USD commodity contracts are broken on a widespread basis? What's the point of holding USDs if they are declared worthless for commodities when inconvenient? See 2022 seizure of...
Cardoso Returns CBN to Central Banking Orthodoxy
Nigeria’s central bank, under new governor Olayemi Cardoso, has shifted back to orthodox monetary policy after a period of development‑bank‑style interventions. Since taking office in October 2023, Cardoso led a tightening cycle that pushed the policy rate to a record...
Poland to Fund Program Using Unrealized Gold Gains
Based on what Glapinski said during his press conference two days ago, all indications are, as I expected, that the plan is to use unrealised gains on the NBP's gold to fund the programme. https://t.co/csre6RPhlr
USD Hits New Yearly High, DXY Targets 100 Break
US Dollar Technical Forecast: USD Surges to Fresh Yearly High – 100 Break at Stake DXY is now poised to mark the largest single-week advance since November 2024 https://t.co/c3SF8eEYBc $DXY Weekly Chart https://t.co/0hLHMw5pZH
The Macroeconomic Consequences of Undermining Central Bank Independence: Evidence From Governor Transitions
An IMF study of 132 central‑bank governor transitions across 28 economies finds that politically motivated appointments erode independence and alter macro outcomes. Such governors are linked to higher, more volatile inflation and cause professional forecasters to anticipate dovish policy. Following...
Dollar Surge Revives 2018 Liquidity Squeeze, Hurting Risk Assets
DXY starting to move up just as it did in early 2018. This threatens to tighten global liquidity even further, which will continue to be a macro headwind for risk assets https://t.co/70JRVsUDZk
Core PCE on Target; Headline Inflation Eases Below
January Core PCE prints at 3.1% as expected - previously 3.0% y/y Headline PCE prints at 2.8% vs 2.9% expected- previously 2.9% y/y
Dollar Nears Breakout, Taming Global Import Prices
While everyone focuses on volatile oil prices, the dollar is nearing a breakout higher. An appreciating dollar tightens monetary policy outside of the US and helps tame import prices. Many other implications as well. https://t.co/69NGmJLCB1
Quiet Markets, Massive Week: 7 Central Bank Rate Decisions
Markets are quiet today but there's a BIG week ahead with 7 central bank rate decisions including the Fed Here's my take on it all 👇
Crude Steadies, GBP Sinks, JPY Nears
Crude is consolidating despite the war showing no signs of relenting. Disappointing UK Jan GDP pushes $GBP to the bottom of G10 fx today. Proximity of JPY160 turns mkt cautious and $JPY is faring best. See https://t.co/Xdwqs68Eew https://t.co/aB4Tekr0wK
Thai Baht Slumps: Highest Energy Trade Deficit in Asia
THB has weakened the most in Asia since the Iran War & the reason being is that it has the highest deficit of energy trade in Asia as a share of GDP. Korean won is second.
IMF Report Swells to 14 Million Words, More Jargon
By 2022, the cumulative text of the IMF’s Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions reached about 14 million words, with increasingly technical jargon to describe the growing web of cross-border tools. https://t.co/YN9GeT7uhG