Today's Currencies Pulse
RBI logs record $53.13B net dollar sale as rupee slides 9.5%
The Reserve Bank of India recorded its largest net dollar sale in at least 15 years, disposing of $53.13 billion in FY 26, more than double the $25.52 billion sold in FY 23. The rupee weakened about 9.5% against the dollar, prompting heavy RBI intervention in both spot and forward markets, where forward‑market net sales hit a historic negative $103.06 billion in March 2026.
Bank of England Votes Unanimously to Leave Rates Unchanged at 3.75%
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to keep the Bank Rate at 3.75%. The decision comes as inflation remains above the 2% target, pressured by higher energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty. By holding rates steady, the MPC signals a cautious stance while monitoring price developments. No immediate easing is anticipated, preserving the current monetary tightening cycle.
Fed Diverges, Creating Clean Macro Trade Opportunity
🚨Every central bank just warned us about inflation Here's what happened this week: ↳ Fed still stuck on easing ↳ ECB and BOE market pricing in 2-3 rate HIKES in 2026 ↳ BOJ keeping its tightening bias intact ↳ SNB hinting at negative rates to...
ECB Sees Higher Inflation, yet Hesitates to Tighten
Big plot twist for the ECB; yes their forecasts might be out of date, but the HICP fcts are reasonably punchy for 2026 ... smart move; the big question though is; why not tighten? They see materially higher inflation and...
The U.S. Dollar: Short Vs. Long Term
Peter Zeihan argues the U.S. dollar is set for a multi‑decade rise, driven by unrivaled naval power, favorable demographics, abundant food and energy resources, and a looming manufacturing expansion. In the near term, however, policy choices—tight immigration, high tariffs, regulatory...
Expanded April Monetary Policy Review and Change to Focus of Business NZ Speech
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will release its April Monetary Policy Review at 2 pm on its website, followed by an online media conference at 3 pm, marking a shift toward greater transparency for future reviews. Governor Adrian Breman will engage with...
Fed Holds Rates as Iran War Fuels Dollar Surge, Global FX React
The Federal Reserve voted 11‑1 to keep its benchmark rate at 3.5%‑3.75% while the Iran‑Israel conflict sent oil prices soaring. The U.S. dollar index jumped to around 100, prompting sharp moves in the euro, yen and other major currencies.
Risk Aversion Deepens as Fed Highlights Inflation Risks, Downplays Growth Impact
Risk aversion deepened as the Fed highlighted heightened inflation risks while downplaying growth concerns. The central bank left rates unchanged but lifted its 2026 PCE inflation forecast to 2.7%, signalling a longer‑lasting price pressure outlook. Simultaneously, Iran’s attacks on key...
Fed Ends Easy Cuts
Takeaways from the March Fed meeting: • The era of 'easy' cuts could be over. Last year's were a recalibration; the next ones have to be earned with better inflation data or downside risks being realized. • The dots weren't as hawkish...
ECB Stays Cautious, Emphasizes Energy Shock Ripple Effects
🇪🇺 ECB decision more balanced. The GC is "well positioned to navigate this uncertainty", not signalling any imminent move. Risk scenarios to be published at 3:45pm. Key will be "the magnitude of indirect and second-round effects of a stronger and...
New Zealand Growth Undershoots as Domestic Demand Softens
New Zealand’s fourth‑quarter GDP expanded only 0.2% quarter‑on‑quarter, missing the 0.4% consensus, while annual growth held at 1.3% year‑on‑year, below the 1.7% forecast. Both production‑based (0.2% q/q) and expenditure‑based (0.1% q/q) measures signalled a sharp slowdown in domestic demand. The weaker...
ECB Holds Rate at 2% Amid War‑Driven Risks
#ECB leaves deposit rate at 2.00% as expected. Says war poses upside inflation risks, downside growth risks. Says to decide based on core inflation, transmission strength. Says not pre-committing to particular rate path. https://t.co/9tExdmlBDB
Gold Slides as BoE Signals Two 2026 Hikes
#Gold takes more beating as #BoE grows hawkish mkt prices TWO rate hikes in 2026 #forex
New Fed "Dot Plot" Sends Markets Sliding
The Federal Reserve left its policy rate unchanged at 3.50‑3.75% and, via the latest dot‑plot, signaled only a single 25‑basis‑point cut for 2026 and another in 2027. The announcement sent the Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 down between 1.3% and...
Market Turns Hawkish, Forecasts Only 9bps Cuts in 2024
The market's implied forecasts for Fed rate forecasts through 2026 now only projects -9bps of rate cuts this year. So the market is more hawkish than the Fed's forecast - the market was more dovish than the Fed two weeks...
DXY: The Most Boring Chart Gets Endless Commentary
the $DXY still gets my vote as the most boring of charts, ironically receiving much commentary and opinion over the years... 🥱🥱🥱 https://t.co/vcUAoh6aPi
The BoC Rate Hold: Brought to You By the Letter ‘U’ for Uncertain
The Bank of Canada left its overnight rate unchanged at 2.25%, citing headline inflation of 1.8% and a softening core CPI. Governor Tiff Macklem repeatedly emphasized uncertainty, flagging dual‑shock risks from higher oil prices and the Iran conflict alongside volatile...
Live Updates: ECB Interest-Rate Decision Unfolds Now
Follow our live blog for the latest news and updates on the European Central Bank's interest-rate decision https://t.co/Nc9piHPEdR via @jrandow https://t.co/nzehlM7joh
Dollar Surge Fizzles: Limited Follow‑Through After Fed Hold
Limited Follow-Through Dollar Today After Yesterday's Surge: The US dollar rallied strongly during the Federal Reserve’s press conference yesterday as rates jumped in response to what was widely seen as a hawkish hold, especially given Chair Powell’s… https://t.co/L0b4ab2cDv https://t.co/JikD6d1Xxj
Dollar Gains on Weak Stocks and Hawkish Fed
The dollar index rose 0.51% after U.S. February producer prices outperformed forecasts, with final‑demand PPI up 0.7% month‑over‑month and 3.4% year‑over‑year and core PPI climbing 3.9% YoY—the strongest gain in 13 months. The Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged...
Brazilian Real Set to Rally Amid Higher Oil Prices
We've now reached the point where - four years ago after the invasion of Ukraine - the Brazilian Real began to rally and outperform everyone else. As we settle into a higher-for-longer equilibrium on oil, the same will now start...
USD Spikes Post‑Fed, Central Banks Stay on Hold
$USD surged yesterday during the Fed's press conference. Follow-through buying has been limited today. BOJ, SNB, & Riksbank stood pat. BOE and ECB next but will also hold steady. War rages, and Brent made new highs,...
Weaker Dollar and Diversification Drive Global Investors Toward Emerging Markets, Says Finnfund
Global investors are rapidly shifting capital into emerging markets as a weaker U.S. dollar and a push for diversification away from the United States drive demand. Over the past twelve months the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has surged 47%, far...
Traders Revise BOE, ECB Rate Forecasts Hours Pre‑Decision
Traders shift BOE, ECB rates outlook just hours before policy decisions https://t.co/HA0mTq7RsS via @greg_ritchie @alicegledhill1 https://t.co/CmyGExhjII
SNB Holds Rate at Zero, Reaffirms Franc Commitment
SNB restates increased resolve on the franc as it holds its rate at zero https://t.co/SZ7RmvXJDF via @bbenrath https://t.co/djvkw40yjQ
Thursday: Eyes Turn to BoJ, ECB After Fed Call
The episode reviews the market fallout from Middle East oil facility attacks, the Federal Reserve’s March rate decision, and upcoming policy moves by the Bank of Japan and ECB. ANZ economists discuss how the oil shock exposes Asia’s heavy reliance...
SNB Signals Greater Willingness to Intervene in FX
🇨🇭 Stronger verbal intervention language from the SNB: "the SNB's willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market has increased". https://t.co/yuDHGc7oUG https://t.co/wcrzVudyN7
Eurozone Inflation Below Target as Money Growth Lags
The Eurozone’s inflation comes in at 1.9%/yr. That's below its 2% target. The ECB’s money supply is only growing at 3.4%/yr. That's BELOW Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of 6%/yr, a rate consistent w/ hitting ECB’s 2%/yr target. INFLATION STORY = MONEY SUPPLY...
RBNZ Releases Summary of Submissions and Key Decisions From Liquidity Management Consultation
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is overhauling its liquidity management framework after a consultation on recent market changes. It will introduce weekly full‑allotment open‑market operations (OMO) to inject liquidity at a fixed spread to the official cash rate,...
Startup Think Tank Leads Deep China FX Policy Analysis
Really? Name one start-up think tank that analyzes the latest twist and turns in China's fx policy with any depth. I would humbly submit that this blog is at the analytical frontier, ahead of what most of...
Precision, Not Prediction, Drives Consistent Smart Money Trades
Precision beats prediction. This is how smart money enters the market clean structure, liquidity sweep, and a perfect FVG entry. Stop chasing trades. Start waiting for confirmation. Discipline + Strategy = Consistency. If you understand this setup, you’re already ahead of 90% traders. #forex #trading...
Hope Lifts Risk Appetites Ahead of the Bank of Canada and FOMC Meetings
Markets are navigating heightened uncertainty as the Middle East conflict eases oil flow, pushing WTI back above $94, while the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada are set to keep policy unchanged. The Fed’s updated dot‑plot still signals a single...
Powell's Hawkish Tone Signals No Rate Cuts Yet
That was a hawkish presser. JP discounted the latest NFP print and revisions. Spent time discussing rate hikes even if hypothetical. Highlighted anchored inflation expectation as a prerequisite for further rate cuts.
Fed's 'Neutral' Decision Sparks Market Sell‑off
This Wasn't a Neutral FED Meeting. Here's the Truth. The Fed left rates unchanged. Everyone expected that. But the reaction told a completely different story. Stocks🔻dropped. Gold🔻dropped. Dollar climbed ⬆️ This was not a boring meeting. Not even close $SPY $GLD $DXY https://t.co/28xpHI13Ju
Fed Meeting Updates: FOMC Set to Hold Rates Steady as Oil Prices Soar
The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at the March 2026 meeting. The decision follows a February jobs report that revealed a loss of roughly 100,000 positions and a sharp rise in oil...
Powell Delivers One of Central Banking’s Finest Press Conferences
In my 20+ years watching markets, this is one of the best central bank press conferences I've ever seen. Its right up there with Draghi and Bernanke's greatest hits. Chair Powell is in rare form.
Powell Says Now Is Time to Abandon SEP
Powell embraces the SEP to observe that there was "a meaningful amount of movement" toward fewer cuts and then later leaves the SEP by the side of the road. If there was ever going to be a time to skip...
Hedge Funds Position for Potential BOJ Hawkish Tilt Amid Iran War Inflation Risks
Hedge funds such as Fivestar Asset Management are reshaping their Japanese bond and currency positions ahead of the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting, expecting Governor Kazuo Ueda to hint at a hawkish stance due to inflation pressures from the Iran...
Markets Rally as Fed Turns Less Hawkish than Expected
Last year markets sold off on less dovish than expected Fed. Today they find relief on less hawkish than expected.
FOMC Raises Growth and Inflation Forecast, Unemployment Steady
#FOMC Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) -Upward revision to Growth -Unchanged on Unemployment -Upward revision on Inflation 2.7% on headline & core PCE https://t.co/knSXUzsR5d
Bank of England Interest Rate Decision: What to Expect on 19 March
The Bank of England will announce its March 19 interest‑rate decision, weighing whether to keep the Bank Rate at 3.75% or trim it by 25 basis points to 3.50%. A narrow 5‑4 vote in February highlighted deep divisions within the...
FOMC Holds Rates, Keeps Forward Guidance Steady Amid Iran Uncertainty
Insta-read #FOMC: No change in rates No change in '26 or '27 dots 1x dissent (slight hawkish) "Uncertain implications" of Iran Two-sided risk language
Fed Holds Rates, Core Inflation Forecast Rises
The Fed held rates steady. There was one dissent. The median rate “dot” was unchanged, as was the 12-7 split on cuts vs. no cuts. The median core PCE inflation forecast revised to 2.7% from 2.5%. The median long-run rate “dot”...
Elliott Wave Update of USDJPY – March 18th, 2026
The latest Elliott Wave update examines USD/JPY’s recent dip, assessing whether it presents a buying opportunity before the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Analysts note that the pair is in a corrective wave that could signal the start of...
FOMC Likely Holds Rates, Eyes Updated SEP Forecasts
FOMC rate decision incoming. Despite the President's interests, the rate decision itself is fully expected to end in no change. That puts the full interest on the updated forecasts of the SEP and any errant remarks Powell makes in his second to...
Powell’s Hawkish Tone Risks Market Crash Amid Gulf Tensions
Today is very dangerous for Powell. If he sounds hawkish, markets might tumble given what's going on in the Persian Gulf. Next thing you know, Trump could be attacking the Fed like in Dec '18. Back then, the Fed capitulated...
Fed Set to Hold as Deutsche Bank Flags Geopolitics Clouding Outlook
Deutsche Bank expects the Federal Reserve to keep its policy rate unchanged at the March 2024 meeting, with only modest tweaks to the post‑meeting statement. The bank says the Fed will downplay volatile payroll data and instead spotlight rising geopolitical...
Inflation Surge Puts Fed Meeting at Crisis Crossroads
Inflation Just EXPLODED 🔥 Does the Fed Have a Crisis on its Hands? Stocks crashed. Gold collapsed. Dollar soared Fed meets TODAY - and this one number could change everything for 2026👇 Follow for updates $SPY $QQQ $DIA $GLD $DXY $USDJPY $ES...
10‑Year Yield Falls, Yet 10y10y Hits Record Risk Premium
The 10-year Treasury yield (blue) has fallen, pulled down by expectations of Fed easing and a lower 2-year yield (black). But that's a deceptive picture. 10y10y forward yield is near record highs (red). Markets price big risk premia in long-term...
Hope Boosts Risk Appetite Ahead of BoC, FOMC
Hope Lifts Risk Appetites Ahead of the Bank of Canada and FOMC Meetings: There are three main talking points today. The first is the war. While it continues to rage, more oil is reportedly moving through the Strait of Hormuz...
China’s State Banks Shift Forward FX Book Post‑2010
The visible forward book of China, Inc (state banks plus PBOC) -- or at least changes in the book after 2010 FX settlement data via Bloomberg 1/ https://t.co/IgUc2aEtHT