Today's Currencies Pulse
RBI logs record $53.13B net dollar sale as rupee slides 9.5%
The Reserve Bank of India recorded its largest net dollar sale in at least 15 years, disposing of $53.13 billion in FY 26, more than double the $25.52 billion sold in FY 23. The rupee weakened about 9.5% against the dollar, prompting heavy RBI intervention in both spot and forward markets, where forward‑market net sales hit a historic negative $103.06 billion in March 2026.
Kevin Greenidge: Shared Seas, Shared Struggles - a Caribbean Perspective on the Challenges Facing Small Island Developing States
Barbados confronted a 2018 crisis with public debt soaring to 179% of GDP and reserves falling to roughly $110 million USD. It introduced the homegrown Barbados Economic Recovery and Transformation (BERT) plan, swiftly moving to a primary surplus, restructuring debt and shielding health, education and social transfers. The second and third phases wove climate‑resilience into fiscal policy, securing $189 million USD from the IMF’s Resilience and Sustainability Facility and pioneering debt‑for‑climate instruments that unlocked $125 million USD for adaptation without adding new debt. Today Barbados reports debt below 95% of GDP, reserves above $1.6 billion USD and is pursuing a transformation agenda that blends productivity, climate action and human‑capital development.
ORB Strategy: Consistent Edge Amid Market Chaos
Markets are WILD right now 🔥 Iran war? Pause? Nobody knows. But here's what I DO know... The only edge that's working consistently right now is the ORB strategy. When markets run the highs or the lows = high confidence trade every...
EU Accelerates Digital Euro as Euro‑Stablecoins Surge to Trillions
The EU is desperate to preserve monetary sovereignty, which is under attack by US stablecoins. That’s why S&P’s analysis is good news for the EU and ECB, which is in damage control mode, speeding digital euro launch. S&P Global...
FX Alert: When Everything Sells at Once, Buy the Dollar ?
The market is experiencing a broad liquidity withdrawal, turning the U.S. dollar into the primary exit asset as equities, bonds and precious metals sell simultaneously. Elevated oil prices are driving risk premia across asset classes, eclipsing central‑bank influence and tightening...
Luis De Guindos: Interview with El Mundo
In a March 20 interview, ECB Vice‑President Luis de Guindos warned that the Middle‑East war will significantly pressure euro‑area growth and inflation, though he does not expect a recession even under the most severe scenarios. The central bank’s baseline assumes...
Japan Weighs Cutting Inflation-Linked Bond Buybacks as Demand Rises
Japan is considering trimming its inflation‑linked government bond buy‑backs to about ¥15 billion per operation for April and June, down from ¥20 billion a month in Q1. The change follows a rise in break‑even inflation rates above 1.9%, indicating stronger investor demand...
Energy Surge Deepens Fed Transition Crisis for Warsh
The run-up in energy prices is making a very awkward Fed transition even more fraught. This was already complicated. Kevin Warsh's confirmation is stalled by the DOJ probe and the Tillis blockade. Plus, unlike every incoming Fed chair since Volcker, Warsh...
EURUSD Continues Upward After Early Morning Spike
EURUSD has really been building on the initial spike higher shortly after 7am ET https://t.co/JXZcl7G8Dr
Analysts Question Dollar’s Reserve‑Currency Dominance Amid Global Turmoil
Analysts warn that the US dollar’s hold on global reserves is being tested. A projected 150‑basis‑point inflation surge in Nigeria, a 30% plunge in US student visas for China and India, and heightened Middle‑East tensions are cited as warning signs....
Bretton Woods: US Capital Outflows, Not Deficits, Built Global Reserves
This isn't quite true -- at least not always. Under the initial Bretton Woods system capital outflows (including FDI) from the US provided the buildup of fx reserves globally; the US didn't run a current account deficit until the 70s. 1/2
Markets Expect Four BOE Quarter‑Point Rate Hikes by 2026
Traders fully price 4 quarter-point hikes from the BOE in 2026 https://t.co/W64ms8NeB5 via @greg_ritchie https://t.co/61ntA97cXa
How the West Asian Conflict Upended Global Monetary Policy
The US‑Iran war has forced major central banks to pause rate cuts, reversing earlier expectations. The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of Japan all kept rates steady, while Sweden and Switzerland...
PBoC Governor Says Global Deficits Unchanged in 40 Years
1/4 I am a little surprised by these comments from the governor of the PBoC. According to Yicai, yesterday he said that "the world’s major deficit countries are the same as 40 years ago because of the inherent flaws in the...
Dollar Weakness Stalls Rally, Triggers Gold Collapse
This is perhaps the reason why the US dollar has failed to rally meaningfully amidst today's market carnage. It's likely also the key reason behind the collapse in gold prices.
Iran Issues 10 Million‑Rial Note Amid Hyperinflation Crisis
Iran's central bank has printed a 10 million‑rial banknote, the country's largest denomination ever, in response to soaring inflation that has eroded the rial's value. The move signals a desperate attempt to keep cash circulation functional and could reshape regional FX...
Iranian Rial Gains 12% Amid Early War Turmoil
Through the first 3 weeks of the US-Israel war on Iran, the Iranian rial has demonstrated surprising resilience. It has APPRECIATED 12% against the USD. https://t.co/eDotRHK77c
Exhausted Asia Push; Now Advancing Tick‑by‑tick
So far we've basically spend all of Asia fliing the gap and grinding towrads ORB high. At this point I guess we are going ot go tick for tick with every blast.
As Global Yuan Use Expands, Questions Resurface About China’s World-Leading Forex Reserves
A Renmin University report urges China to trim its $3.42 trillion foreign‑exchange reserves, which sit at roughly 16% of GDP, to a more moderate level of about 11.5% of GDP as the yuan gains global traction. The paper argues that a...
Indian Tanker Pays in Yuan, Signaling Petro‑Yuan Market Rise
And Indian tanker has reportedly paid in Chinese yuan. Welcome to the #petroYuan market (thanks donald)
Tokenized Money Threatens Traditional Banking by 2030
🔺 The $2 Trillion Shift: Is Tokenized Money About to Kill Traditional Banking? 💸 By 2030, tokenized money could be a $2T market. But while the tech is moving fast, the global financial map is becoming a "fragmented mess" of rules. 💬...
International Business Briefs | Economist Shin Hyun-Song Tapped to Lead Bank of Korea Amid Inflation Risks
South Korea named economist Shin Hyun‑song, famed for foreseeing the 2008 crisis, as the next Bank of Korea governor as the nation confronts inflation risks from the Iran war and uneven Asian growth. In the United States, a federal jury held...
Norway's Krone Leads Global Currencies with 6% Gain
Best performing currency in the world in the last 3 months = Norway's Krone +6.0% https://t.co/QTiHlRp0kL
Xi Pushes RMB as Global Reserve Amid U.S. Isolation
The U.S. is accumulating enemies faster than you can shake a stick. Chinese President Xi SEES AN OPENING. Xi has made a new push the renminbi to be a global reserve currency. https://t.co/qMpgMEp3Fo
FX Week in Review: Swissquote Record Results, cBridge Launch, Admirals Restructures, Arsenal CFDs Sponsor, IG Leaving UK?
Swissquote reported record H2‑2025 results, with revenues of CHF 365.2 million ($461 million) and net profit of CHF 208.2 million ($263 million), up 2 % and 32 % respectively. Admirals Group disclosed a €18.5 million loss for 2025 and will relinquish its Estonia investment‑firm licence as part of a...
Dollar-Oil Surge Cripples Emerging Markets, Unmodeled Squeeze
DXY up 3% in a month on safe-haven demand. Oil up 50%. Dollar up AND oil up simultaneously. Emerging markets are getting crushed from both sides. This is the squeeze nobody is modeling. https://t.co/xogAtPGq0m
HK Inflation Near Target, Currency Board Proves Effective
Hong Kong’s inflation rate comes in at 1.7%/yr in February, JUST A TAD below its de facto 2%/yr inflation target. Hong Kong’s Dollar-Based Currency Board is WORKING LIKE A CHARM. https://t.co/Q0L3lNddlP
Bank of England Expected to Keep Rates Steady Into Next Year
The Bank of England is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged through next year, as inflation pressures persist. Oxford Economics attributes the heightened risk to rising energy prices driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The central bank’s...
Gold and Silver Can't Be Printed Like Fiat Money
"Gold and silver... [are] distinct from modern forms of money or currency. Currencies such as the US Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Brazilian Real or the Euro can be created at the will of central banks. Precious metals cannot.” –Invest Local (2014)...
Markets Shift to Tightening, Cuts Delayed Until 2027
Markets are now pricing 8bps of TIGHTENING by year-end. Not cuts. Tightening. Six months ago the market expected 3+ cuts in 2026. Next potential cut: autumn 2027. Good luck hitting even that. https://t.co/mmyLstJwNe
Korea Names BIS Veteran, Financial Stability Expert as BOK Head
South Korea announced Shin Hyun Song, a veteran BIS official and financial‑stability scholar, as its next Bank of Korea governor. The nomination comes as the BOK faces heightened uncertainty from the Iran conflict, rising oil prices and a delicate balance...
Hyun Song Shin, Senior BIS Economist, Appointed BOK Governor
Senior BIS economist @HyunSongShin has been named by South Korea’s president to run the Bank of Korea https://t.co/NVLP6R3Dox
Rising Short‑term Rates Threaten High‑debt Nations
Short-term rates (black) are rising as markets settle in for a long war. That pushes up long-term yields, a problem for any high-debt country out there. The last time we saw this in 2022, Italy and Spain needed ECB bailouts...
RBI Board Flags Global Volatility, Currency Risks While Approving 2026‑27 Budget
The Reserve Bank of India’s 622nd central board meeting in Patna approved the 2026‑27 budget and the Utkarsh 3.0 medium‑term strategy while warning of heightened global volatility, currency pressure and inflation risks. The rupee slid nearly 3% in March, touching...
PMIs Dominate Global Outlook as US Data Stalls
Light on US data next week but PMIs are key. These are the events to watch 👇 🇺🇸 US Jobless Claims & UMich Revisions 🇪🇺 EU - PMIs and GE IFO 🇬🇧 GBP -PMIs -Retail Sales -CPI 🇦🇺 AU -PMIs -CPI 🇯🇵 JP -CPI -BoJ Minutes
Iran Prints 10‑million‑rial Note Worth Just $7
🇮🇷 Iran has issued a new 10,000,000 Iranian Rial note today, worth just $7. https://t.co/btef2P8Bcv
Fed Rate Cut Chance Hits Zero, Threatening Stagflation Where Bitcoin Thrives as a Hedge Against Long Term Inflation
Traders now price a greater than 60% chance the Federal Reserve will raise rates by October, after the March meeting left the policy range unchanged. A surge in Brent crude above $109 per barrel has pushed 10‑year Treasury yields to...
Money Supply Growth Exceeds Target, Fuelling Pakistan Inflation
#PakWatch🇵🇰: Pakistan's inflation is 7.0%/yr. Pak's money supply (M3) is growing at 15.1%/yr. That’s above Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 11.5%/yr-13.5%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting Pakistan's inflation target of 5%/yr-7%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/x28UBeLyKl
Oil‑Yen Link Signals Bigger Carry‑trade Risk
Everyone is watching oil in dollars. Almost nobody is watching oil in yen. That's where the real risk is. If Japan panics, the carry trade unwinds again — and this time it won't be a two-day event. I laid it all out on CNBC...
India's Forex Reserves Drop $7 Bn as RBI Sells Dollars, Raising Balance‑Sheet Pressure
India's foreign‑exchange reserves fell $7.05 bn to $709.75 bn in the week to March 13, after the RBI sold roughly $6 bn in the spot market and a revaluation loss hit foreign‑currency assets. The decline underscores mounting pressure on the country's external balance amid...
Fed Inaction Fuels Gold Surge via Falling Real Rates
The Fed’s Inaction is a Green Light for Gold Here’s my take: The data confirms the Fed is way behind the curve. Inflation is out of control, and they can’t rein it in. Their failure to hike rates isn't bearish for...
The Sunday Read: Why the Reserve Bank Needs to Be More Cautious - Podcast
The Reserve Bank of Australia announced another interest‑rate increase as inflation and cost‑of‑living pressures intensify, compounded by geopolitical risks from the war in Iran. Independent economist Nicki Hutley, featured in Guardian Australia’s “Full Story” podcast, argued the central bank should...
Insufficient Source Data to Report on Fed Decision and Dollar Strength
The eight supplied articles cover topics ranging from civil‑rights protests to Jamaican education initiatives, but none address the Federal Reserve's recent policy meeting, the US dollar's movement, or gold prices. Consequently, specific details, quotes, and figures for a currency‑focused story...
Supply Shock History Warns High‑Debt Nations of Crisis
Last time the world faced a big supply shock - after COVID in 2022 - the Yen went into a depreciation spiral, Italy and Spain needed ECB bailouts and the Gilt market blew up in the UK. This environment is...
War and Policy Outlook Shape FX and Capital Markets
Week Ahead: The War and Anticipated Policy Responses Drive the Capital Markets: There are two main drivers in the foreign exchange market: war and the anticipated monetary policy response. May WTI peaked on March 9 near $113.40. Last week, the...
Book Bits: 21 March 2026
The Capital Spectator’s Book Bits (21 March 2026) spotlights two new titles. Barry Eichengreen’s *Money Beyond Borders* examines the U.S. dollar’s more‑than‑10 % slide against major currencies since early 2025 and evaluates scenarios that could dethrone it, emphasizing domestic policy missteps. Gary A. Hoover’s...
China Expands Digital Yuan Access to Dozen More Banks
China's central bank approved an additional twelve banks to process the digital yuan, extending the retail pilot that began in 2020. The expansion signals a push to deepen domestic adoption and could reshape foreign‑exchange and cross‑border payment flows, though specific...
Elliott Wave Analysis of EURUSD – March 23rd, 2026
EURUSD surged over 150 pips after the European Central Bank signaled readiness to resume rate‑hike discussions as early as April, reflecting persistent inflation pressures. The ECB’s hawkish pivot quickly lifted the euro against the dollar, underscoring the power of central‑bank...
Piero Cipollone: Digital Euro - Why?
The European Central Bank is advancing a digital euro to address the euro area’s reliance on non‑European card schemes, with 15 of 21 countries lacking a strong domestic digital payment option. A 12‑month pilot, beginning in the second half of...
China to Allow More Banks to Handle Digital Yuan: Sources
China's central bank will add twelve new banks to the e‑CNY programme, expanding the roster from ten to twenty‑two institutions. The new participants include major joint‑stock banks such as China Everbright and city commercial banks like Bank of Ningbo. The...
Our Underappreciated International Reserve System
The latest NBER paper shows a pronounced shift in the composition of global foreign‑exchange reserves. The U.S. dollar’s share slipped below 57% in Q3 2025, while gold overtook the euro to become the second‑largest reserve asset. Central banks are diversifying into...