Today's Currencies Pulse
Rupee flat on hopes West Asia truce will hold
The Indian rupee held steady as markets priced in hopes that a West Asia truce would hold, hovering near ₹95.78 per dollar after slipping 8 paise in early trade. Traders kept a close eye on geopolitical developments while the currency remained largely unchanged.
Kenya Cuts Dollar‑Denominated Debt to Record Low as Yuan Share Doubles
Kenya’s Treasury reported that dollar‑denominated external debt fell to 53.2% of the total in October 2025, the lowest share on record, while the Chinese yuan’s share more than doubled to 12.1%. The move reflects President William Ruto’s push to diversify currency risk and tap cheaper Chinese financing.
BlackRock, Visa and World Liberty Financial Accelerate Stablecoin Push
At the Future Investment Initiative in Miami, BlackRock, Visa and World Liberty Financial disclosed new stablecoin projects, joining Ripple and other incumbents in a wave of institutional entry. The move follows a year in which stablecoins processed $33 trillion, underscoring their...
Iran Has a Shocking Money Strategy up Its Sleeve
The long‑standing petrodollar system compels oil sales in U.S. dollars, creating massive dollar reserves that finance U.S. Treasury debt. Iran has hinted it could restrict oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz unless the transactions avoid the dollar. Such a...
Turkey's Gold Reserves Fall to Defend Lira Peg
There's 3 central banks that publish weekly data on FX reserves and gold holdings: India, Thailand and Turkey. Only Turkey has seen a sustained drop in gold holdings (blue) that have been used to lift FX reserves and defend the...
Live: Oil Prices, Weak Dollar, Central Bank Gold Sales
I'm doing a livestream this morning at 9 am (ET) to talk through: (i) the different oil prices floating around and how they all fit together; (ii) how the Dollar is trading weak, with yesterday's payrolls another example; (iii) central...
India's FX Reserves Drop $10.3 Bn in One Week as RBI Steps Up Currency Intervention
India's foreign exchange reserves plunged $10.3 bn in the week to March 27, 2026, leaving the total at $688.1 bn. The slide was led by a $6.6 bn fall in foreign currency assets and a $3.7 bn drop in gold, reflecting RBI's market‑stabilisation moves and...
Global Markets Eye War, CPI Data, and RBI Caps
Week Ahead: Still mostly about the war. US and China report March CPI. China's PPI may have emerged from deflation. Canada reports March jobs data. RBI is relying on cap controls to support INR, not...
Elliott Wave Analysis of USDCAD – April 6th, 2026
USDCAD advanced 52 pips last week as investors turned to the U.S. dollar for safety amid the escalating war in Iran. The pair is now testing the 1.40 resistance zone, a level that has historically capped upside moves. Elliott Wave...
US Jobs Data Fuels Dollar Rise, Stocks and Bonds Dip
Stocks and bonds may fall again while the dollar gains after deceptively upbeat US jobs data. #NFP #Stocks #Dollar #Macro #Trading #IranWar https://t.co/bSlTNo7Fkg
China's Money Printing Matches
Everyone focuses on U.S. money printing. But China has quietly been just as aggressive—if not more.
Romania Deploys €1 Billion to Shield Leu Amid Global Market Turmoil
Romania’s central bank intervened with more than €1 billion ($1.2 billion) in March to support the leu amid a market rout sparked by the Middle East conflict. The move underscores the fragility of smaller European currencies and the lengths sovereigns will go...
FX Dos and Don’ts for CFOs Navigating Currency Volatility
U.S. companies with global exposure are confronting a fresh surge in foreign‑exchange volatility as the dollar strengthens amid geopolitical tension and divergent monetary policies. CFOs are being urged to move beyond reactionary hedging and adopt structured risk‑management frameworks that separate...
Vantage Announces Integration with MetaQuotes’ Ultency Matching Engine
Vantage Global Prime has integrated its institutional liquidity and multi‑asset suite with MetaQuotes’ newly launched Ultency Matching Engine for MetaTrader 5. The partnership lets MT5 brokers tap Vantage’s ultra‑low latency execution directly inside the native platform, eliminating the need for external...
NDB Pushes Yuan‑denominated Financing, Sells $3.6 Bn in Panda Bonds to Boost Global South Projects
The New Development Bank (NDB) announced a push for yuan‑denominated funding, having sold 25 billion yuan ($3.6 bn) in panda bonds last year – its biggest issuance since 2016. The move aims to give Global South projects cheaper, locally‑hedged capital and to...
Rates Spark: Markets Don't See A Solution Yet
Markets remain unsettled as President Donald Trump's rhetoric fails to provide a clear policy path, keeping oil prices elevated and risk aversion high heading into a long weekend. In the UK, investors now price roughly 50 basis points of Bank...
RBI Allows Rupee Exchange at Airport Departure Halls, Boosting Traveler Convenience
The Reserve Bank of India has lifted a long‑standing restriction, allowing both residents and non‑residents to exchange Indian rupee notes at foreign‑exchange counters inside international airport departure halls. The move, announced in a circular, aims to give travelers last‑minute access...
U.S. Treasury Yields Jump as Bonds Plunge Amid Trump‑Era Iran Tensions
President Donald Trump's late‑Wednesday address on Iran sent U.S. Treasury yields sharply higher and bond prices tumbling. The sell‑off was driven by fears of higher oil prices, tighter monetary policy and a broader risk‑off mood ahead of a potential ground...
Is the US Dollar Collapse Imminent?
The episode examines whether a collapse of the US dollar is imminent, focusing on how recent Middle East conflicts have accelerated the shift of some nations toward trading oil in currencies like the yuan, ruble, or cryptocurrencies to avoid US...
Wave Analysis Predicts Trend Reversals Before News
Wave Analysis is more often than not ahead of trend reversals. If done correctly you will experience that news follows. So was the case with USDINR, where we published the following post on 27/03/26 on Indiacharts. We could not have...
Egypt's Soaring Inflation Mirrors Excessive Money Supply Growth
Egypt’s inflation rate is 13.4%/yr. That’s above its inflation target of 3-7%/yr. Egypt’s money supply just came in at 16.9%/yr. That's ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 11.1-15.1%/yr, consistent with hitting its inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY....
Central Banks' Inflation Mood Puzzle: More Judgment than Science
Central banks are grappling with how to gauge inflation expectations as an Iran‑driven energy shock filters through the economy. Traditional surveys and market indicators prove too slow, prompting policymakers to rely more on judgment and real‑time qualitative data. New tools—such...
Iran Turns to Euro, France Pays in Yuan
Iranians accepting EUR....or French paying in CNY (after selling gold to China to get CNY)?
Dollar's Upside Surprise Effect Fades, Weakness Looms
A few months ago, I wrote about how upside data surprises weren't lifting the Dollar anymore. Today is a case in point. Big upside surprise to payrolls and the Dollar does basically nothing. We're seeing regime change for the Dollar...
Kazakhstan's Central Bank Sells $400 Million to Bolster Tenge as Oil Prices Rise
Kazakhstan's National Bank sold $400 million from the National Fund in March, using the proceeds to support the budget and shore up the tenge, which rose 3.9% to 478 per dollar. The move, accounting for about 6% of daily FX volume,...
ECB's Simkus: Too Early to Judge April Meeting
ECB’s Simkus says it is too early to call the outcome of April’s meeting https://t.co/GyAjrsyZA3 via @mseput https://t.co/uL1RzTuL18
Surprise US Payrolls Lift Yields, Hit Emerging Markets
The last thing the word needed this morning was strong US data. But that's what we got. A +1.5 standard deviation surprise on payrolls that's pushed up the 2-year yield 5 basis points, which is broadly in line with its...
RBI's Emergency Forex Curbs Lift Rupee 1.6% to 93.14 per Dollar, Biggest One‑day Gain Since 2013
The Reserve Bank of India rolled out emergency foreign‑exchange restrictions on Thursday, prompting the rupee to surge 1.6% to 93.14 per U.S. dollar, its steepest one‑day rise in over a decade. The move capped banks' net open positions at $100 million...
Foreign Central Banks Boost Fed Holdings by $3.3 Bn
The week ending Wednesday was the first in six weeks that foreign central banks did not draw on their custody holdings (Treasuries and Agencies) at the Federal Reserve. In fact, their holdings increased by almost $3.3 bln. See https://t.co/VPY5kkVh5i
Escalation Risks Dampen Risk‑Taking, US Jobs Keep Dollar Flat
Risk of Escalation Discourages Risk Taking while US Jobs Report May Extend the Dollar's Narrow Ranges: The shroud of the Middle East war overhangs the Good Friday holiday. The attack on an Iranian bridge yesterday threatens a response in kind...
India's FX Reserves Drop $11.4B to $698B Amid Gold Sell‑off
India’s foreign‑exchange reserves shrank by $11.4 billion to $698 billion for the week ending March 20, 2026, after a sharp decline in gold holdings. The drop follows a record peak of $728.5 billion two weeks earlier and coincides with heightened geopolitical tension and a...
Dollar's Rise Tied to US Rates, Near 100 Resistance
With rate cuts being priced out of the market, the dollar index has strengthened from 95.6 to 100.5. I think the dollar’s recent strength has more to do with US rates than with geopolitics, and my guess is that the...
Dollar Index Rally Runs Out Of Steam- UDN Is A Bearish Dollar Index ETF
Analysts rate Invesco DB U.S. Dollar Index Bearish Fund (UDN) a buy as the dollar index’s recent rally to 100.64 appears to be losing momentum. Long‑term bearish pressures—rising U.S. debt, de‑dollarization trends, and a shift of central‑bank reserves toward gold—continue...
U.S. Trade Deficit Grows to $57.3 Billion in February, Missing Forecasts
The U.S. Commerce Department said the trade deficit expanded to $57.3 billion in February, up from $54.7 billion in January but below market forecasts. The modest widening eases some pressure on GDP calculations, currency markets and the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
ECB's Villeroy: The Next Change in Rates Is Highly Likely to Be Upwards
ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau signaled that the next monetary policy move is likely an interest‑rate increase, though he stopped short of setting a timetable. He emphasized the central bank’s readiness to act whenever conditions demand and...
MUFG Warns Philippine Peso Could Slip Past P61 per Dollar as Oil Shock Lingers
MUFG's research arm says the Philippine peso could break the P61 per dollar barrier if oil prices remain elevated amid the Middle East conflict. The outlook follows a series of record lows, with the peso at P60.748/$1, and comes as...
Gold Sellers Beware: Iran's CNY Deal Triggers Arbitrage
They’ll hold a meeting, realize they can’t open it if the US couldn’t, & then just agree to pay Iran in CNY… …and the easiest/only way to secure CNY is by buying physical gold in USD and selling that gold to...
Holiday Week Brings Continued Wild Market Volatility
We still have NFPs tomorrow - which can generate volatility through thinned liquidity - but by and large the market is done for the week. What to expect next week? Wild Market Volatility Likely to Continue Through Holiday Conditions https://t.co/cnoL8Uiqb5
The USDCHF Based at a Key Support Target and It Led to Bounce. What Does that Tell You?
Greg Michalowski highlighted that the USD/CHF pair found firm support between 0.7888 and 0.7903, a zone that held and sparked a bounce higher. He argues that this technical foothold gave traders a clear, limited‑risk entry point despite a backdrop of...
Japan's Public Debt Fuels Massive Sovereign Carry Trade
amazing writeup on japan's public sector balance sheet, net debt, and massive sovereign carry trade. https://t.co/JTMMXBfCKu
USD/CHF Surges to Yearly High, Near Breakout Levels
Swiss Franc Forecast: USD/CHF Rally Hits Yearly High- Breakout Levels in Sight https://t.co/eNkhFNaLMN Short Video Breakdown: https://t.co/hWbiKrYO6e $USDCHF Weekly Chart https://t.co/bxIE9pEJrt
CCIL Imposes Volatility Margin on Dollar-Rupee Forwards Amid Market Swings
The Clearing Corporation of India (CCIL) has imposed a 20 % volatility margin on dollar‑rupee forward contracts, effective immediately. The move follows sharp market swings after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) tightened arbitrage restrictions, pushing the 1‑year implied USD‑INR yield...
Turkey's $40bn Lira Defense Mirrors 2025 Intervention
Factoring in gold, I estimate Turkey has intervened to the tune of $40 bn in March 2026 to defend the Lira. That's the same as in March and April 2025 after the arrest of Ekrem İmamoğlu, an episode that ended...
Sovereign Spreads Lag Behind FX in Pricing Fundamentals
also interesting that sovereign spreads have widened—you’ve seen terms of trade differentiation in FX but sov debt has been slower to price differing country-by-country macro fundamentals
How Long Can the Bank of Canada Look Through a US$100 Oil Shock?
BMO projects Canadian inflation edging just above 3% in April as oil prices breach $100 per barrel, yet the Bank of Canada keeps its policy rate steady at 2.25%. The governing council said it will "look through" the temporary energy...
The Daily Feather — Ferreting on National Ferret Day
National Ferret Day, observed each April 2, celebrates the quirky "weasel war dance" of domestic ferrets and highlights a historic mascot that traces back to the 15th century. The Daily Feather’s post blends light‑hearted cultural trivia with a visual collage of macro‑economic...
The US-Israel War on Iran Is Accelerating De-Dollarization and America’s Decline | Ahmed Moor
The United States and Israel are spending roughly $12 billion each week on the war against Iran, a conflict that is reshaping global finance. Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has forced about 100 vessels to pay a $2 million toll...
Hope Dashed, Risk Appetites Slashed Ahead of Long Holiday Weekend for Many
President Trump’s address failed to lift market optimism, leaving risk appetite severely compressed ahead of a long holiday weekend. The US dollar surged, pushing the yen toward the 160‑per‑dollar mark while the euro stalled near $1.15 and sterling slipped below...
Maintain Long USD, Short EUR/USD Amid Global Volatility
No change to our Signals on Global Currency Vol = Long USD, Short EUR/USD, etc. https://t.co/eqe6yGF4IT
Cross‑border Interoperability Makes WERO, Euro CBDC Essential
The WERO cross border interoperability is what matters most. Wero, Euro stablecoins, the Euro CBDC, and the EU ID; are foundational and will have network effects.
India’s Central Bank Makes It Harder to Short the Rupee
India’s central bank, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), has tightened regulations on shorting the rupee. Effective immediately, the RBI increased margin requirements for rupee futures and introduced stricter reporting thresholds for large short positions. The move targets speculative bets...