Today's Currencies Pulse
Rupee flat on hopes West Asia truce will hold
The Indian rupee held steady as markets priced in hopes that a West Asia truce would hold, hovering near ₹95.78 per dollar after slipping 8 paise in early trade. Traders kept a close eye on geopolitical developments while the currency remained largely unchanged.
FX Daily: Global FX Comes Back From the Brink
A two‑week cease‑fire between Iran and its adversaries has sparked a broad risk‑on rally, lifting equities, steepening yield curves and prompting a rebound in most currencies against the dollar. The U.S. dollar index, which rose about 3 % in March, slipped more than 3 % on the cease‑fire news and could test the 98.5 level. Emerging‑market and commodity‑linked currencies are recovering roughly 2 % on the day, while the New Zealand dollar has already reclaimed about 40 % of its March losses. Central banks, notably the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, are signalling tighter policy, keeping short‑end yields elevated despite the risk‑off reversal.
Elliott Wave Update of EURUSD – April 8th, 2026
EWM Interactive released an Elliott Wave update on the EUR/USD pair, highlighting a sharp rally on April 8, 2026. The analysis applies Elliott Wave theory to the recent price surge, identifying the move as a potential Wave 3 impulse. Key price targets and...
Dollar Slides as Ceasefire Unwinds War Premium—Is EUR/USD Heading Back to 1.20?
The U.S. dollar fell sharply after a U.S.-Iran ceasefire and oil prices slipped below $100 a barrel, erasing much of the war‑premium that had buoyed the greenback. The move sparked a risk‑on rally, with Asian equity indices such as South...
RBI Holds Rates, Balances Inflation Control with Growth Outlook
The RBI is balancing inflation control with growth support, keeping rates unchanged amid global uncertainties, while projecting solid GDP growth but slightly softer momentum next year.
The ECB Is Stirring Memories of 2011 — Not All of Them Good
The Financial Times’ Monetary Policy Radar team has been introduced, showcasing five senior contributors who specialize in European central‑bank analysis. Chris Giles leads the unit as the FT’s economics commentator, while Andrew Whiffin brings a decade of corporate‑commentary experience. Data‑driven...
Rupee Surges 50 Paise to 92.56 Against USD in Early Trade After US, Iran Agree to 2-Week Ceasefire
The Indian rupee jumped 50 paise to 92.56 per dollar in early trade after President Donald Trump announced a two‑week suspension of US strikes on Iran. The cease‑fire sparked a broad rally in risk assets, with Asian equities, gold and silver...
Indian Rupee Slides to 93.07 per Dollar as Oil Prices Top $110
The Indian rupee weakened to 93.07 per U.S. dollar, slipping 17 paise in early trade. The move was driven by Brent crude climbing to $111.11 a barrel and a $16 billion pull‑back of foreign capital, underscoring how commodity shocks are outweighing...
Iraqi Dollar Holds Near IQD 155,000 in Parallel Market Amid Ongoing Conflict
The US dollar traded at roughly IQD 1,550 in Iraq’s parallel market on April 7, 2026, barely moving from the previous week. The stability comes as the official Central Bank rate sits at IQD 1,300 per dollar, underscoring a widening official‑parallel gap but...
PBOC Sets USD/ CNY Central Rate at 6.8680 (Vs. Estimate at 6.8369)
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central reference rate at 6.8680 for the current trading session, modestly weaker than the Reuters estimate of 6.8369. The central bank maintains a +/-2% daily trading band around this reference, allowing...
Ceasefire Sparks Asian Rally; Vietnam Gains EM Upgrade
Good morning, I woke up to the best news ever - we got a two-week ceasefire that has lit Asian and risks assets that have been languishing on the closure of the Strait. The Korean won is rallying the hardest, followed...
New Zimbabwe Notes Spark Exchange Rate Surge, Spark Controversy
According to Newsday, the release of the New Bank Notes caused a SPIKE in the exchange rate from 1:26 to 1:40 …. Why are @TrevorNcube’s publications always selling negative FAKE NEWS? Surely the @ReserveBankZIM should seek a retraction, this is how...
Eurozone PMI Slips to 50.7, Weighing on European Stocks as Oil Rises
The eurozone composite PMI dropped to 50.7 in March, its weakest reading in eight months, as Middle‑East war‑driven energy costs surge. The data, released alongside Spain’s services PMI forecast of 50.7, has pressured European equities, with analysts warning that higher...
Romania's Central Bank Pushes Euro Adoption Despite Austerity
Romania’s central bank governor joined calls for the Black Sea nation to revive a goal of adopting the euro as the country seeks to get through a painful period of austerity https://t.co/SjqJU4C4eB https://t.co/wJj4vWehdb
Chinese Banks' Net Dollar Exposure Surges Dramatically
To be blunt, no one gave this memo to China's banks External dollar assets up, external dollar liabilities down -- net long dollars way up. and we already know from other banking data that the dollar long increased significantly in...
Ethiopia’s Birr Slumps 107% as Fertilizer and Fuel Costs Surge, Threatening Record Wheat Harvest
Ethiopia’s birr has lost roughly 107% of its value against the dollar since July 2024, pushing fertilizer prices up 60% and fuel up 56%. The surge in input costs threatens to erode gains from a projected record 7 million‑metric‑ton wheat harvest...
Rare DXY Gap Appears in 23‑Hour Futures Market
Very rare event in the 23-hr futures market where you rarely ever see gaps. Look at the #DXY tonight #forex $UUP $FXE #DXY https://t.co/vOGAm4AaUO
Dollar Exists to Guard Capitalism, Not Just Cover Deficits
There are so many layers to the dollar story that transcend conventional market economic dynamics. Until investors realise this I do believe they will be caught out by narratives that serve political agendas not reality. Crucially, most “end of the dollar”...
March CPI Inflation Preview: Q/Q AR at 5.2% to 5.9%
The Cleveland Federal Reserve’s nowcast projects March headline CPI rising at an annualized quarter‑on‑quarter rate of 5.2%‑5.9%, slightly above the Bloomberg consensus. The nowcast blends recent CPI and PCE releases with daily oil and gasoline price data, indicating inflation remains...
Unseen Momentum Could Be Mounting Behind the Yuan
Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff warns the Chinese yuan could become a global reserve currency within five years, challenging the U.S. dollar’s entrenched position. The dollar still processes about 58% of international transactions, while the yuan accounts for roughly 2% of...
The ECB and the Euro's Global Role
The European Central Bank has broadened its euro‑repo liquidity facility (EUREP) to offer funding to any central bank that provides high‑quality euro‑denominated collateral. This move underscores the ECB’s growing geopolitical role as the euro seeks to become a more prominent...
Indonesian Rupiah Drops to Rp17,105 per Dollar Amid US‑Iran Tension
The Indonesian rupiah weakened to Rp17,105 per U.S. dollar, a 0.41% slide driven by fears of a U.S. strike on Iran if Tehran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts say heightened geopolitical risk is tightening oil markets and...
ASEAN+3 Forecasts 4% Growth in 2026‑27 Amid Iran War and Energy Costs
The ASEAN+3 macroeconomic research office (AMRO) projects the bloc will grow 4% in both 2026 and 2027, even as the Iran war and soaring oil prices pressure the region. The outlook highlights strong inflation control, robust foreign direct investment and...
Little Evidence of Increase in USD Hedge Ratios
European investors have not increased their dollar hedges despite early‑year dollar weakness. Danish insurers and pension funds cut their FX hedge ratio to 70.3% in February, the lowest level since before April 2023. Private‑sector foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries has...
Stop Trading on Hope: How Discipline and Risk Management Lead to Consistent Profits
The article warns that trading on hope—holding losing positions, skipping stop‑losses, and chasing headlines—creates predictable losses. It contrasts this with disciplined traders who use strict risk management, predefined entry and exit rules, and data‑driven analysis. By treating each trade as...
Copy Trading in South Africa – Is It a Shortcut or a Smart Strategy for New Forex Traders?
Copy trading has gained traction among South African forex newcomers, offering a way to mirror seasoned traders’ positions automatically. The model promises rapid market entry without the need to develop a personal strategy, appealing to smartphone‑savvy users lacking formal education....
OCR on Hold at 2.25%
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Monetary Policy Committee kept the Official Cash Rate at 2.25 percent as the Middle‑East conflict pushed global oil prices higher and disrupted supply chains. Near‑term headline inflation is projected at 3.0 percent in the March 2026 quarter and...
Fiscal Strain Drives Rupiah to Record Low
Rupiah at Record Low of 17,080. It’s not just the war. Polisi fiskal memberi bebanan. Between 2025 and April 2026: •Rupiah jatuh 5% in 2025 •Deficit 2.92% of GDP, widest in several years. •Foreign investors sold off bonds •Bank Indonesia (BI) buys govt bonds...
Afreximbank Launches $10bn Crisis Support for Africa, Caribbean
Afreximbank has approved a $10 billion Gulf Crisis Response Programme to cushion African and Caribbean economies from the fallout of the Middle‑East conflict. The fund will supply short‑term foreign‑exchange and liquidity to keep essential imports such as fuel, food and pharmaceuticals...
RBI Caps Bank Forex Positions, Bans NDFs, Stokes Arbitrage and NRI Deposit Talks
The Reserve Bank of India imposed a $100 million cap on banks' net open foreign‑exchange positions and barred rupee non‑deliverable forwards, while hinting at incentives for NRI deposits ahead of its April 8 policy meeting. The moves triggered a brief rupee...
Dollar Stablecoins versus a Retail Digital Euro? They Are Different – Not Rivals
The U.S. Congress enacted the GENIUS Act, requiring stablecoin issuers to back each token with short‑dated Treasury securities, effectively tying the burgeoning stablecoin market to U.S. sovereign debt. This framework mirrors the EU’s MiCA rules for electronic money tokens, but...
Rand as Shock Absorber: Trade Opportunities Revealed
South Africa operates a floating exchange rate. That simply means the Rand's value is determined by supply and demand in global markets. 𝗗𝘂𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗼𝗱𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝗰𝗸, 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗮𝗰𝘁𝘀 𝗮𝘀 𝗮 "𝘀𝗵𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗮𝗯𝘀𝗼𝗿𝗯𝗲𝗿". What Lesetja Kganyago is really telling you is...
Russian
Rus, AD, Peso - RS leaders on the weeklies. of course, most all the weeklies look swank w this move (!) https://t.co/WhyaID8PTk
Research: UK Official Holdings of International Reserves: March 2026
The UK’s March 2026 statistical release shows official international reserves totaling £115.5 billion (approximately $148 billion), a 1.2% increase from the previous month. Gold holdings rose to 310 tonnes, valued at roughly $5.5 billion, while foreign‑currency assets grew on the back of higher US‑dollar positions....
DXY Slides Post‑ceasefire, H&S Neckline at 99.50
The $DXY has dropped after the ceasefire news. There is some debate that can be had over whether it is a break with follow through. There is a H&S pattern there on the 4hour chart. Neckline around 99.50 https://t.co/uKdc2tAE8J
Jefferson Delivers Most Hawkish Fed Speech Since 2023
According to Fedlock, today's speech from Fed Governor Jefferson was his most hawkish since 2023 https://t.co/rgs6erEO5l
Gabriel Makhlouf: Bridge to the Future - Mobilising Europe's Savings in a Fragmenting World
Gabriel Makhlouf, Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland, warned that Europe’s household deposits now total roughly $11 trillion, yet investment falls far short of the $818‑$872 billion needed annually by 2030. He linked this gap to weak growth, persistent Single Market...
IMF Flags Rising Imbalances, Revives Currency Manipulation Label
Happy to see the IMF has noticed the expansion of global current account imbalances -- And guess what, the IMF seems to have rediscovered the idea that currency manipulation can drive imbalances (though manipulation has been renamed "macro-industrial policy" ......
ZiG Delivers Price and Exchange Rate Stability by 2030
The PEOPLE LOVE THEIR ZiG…. The Zimbabwe Gold brought Price Stability & Exchange rate Stability… By 2030, with President @edmnangagwa in charge, even the doubting Thomases will be fully embracing the ZiG… https://t.co/YS86xPMcjN
François Villeroy De Galhau: Little Time Left to Wake up - Can We Reconcile Europe with Speed?
François Villeroy de Galhau used his final Eurofi speech as Governor of the Banque de France to warn that Europe is running out of time to act on known reforms. He stressed that the continent knows what must be done,...
Market May Bottom Out in May Amid Sentiment Shift
This is good news and we may bottom out in May if this continues - makret has been incredibly complacent so sentiment shift shoud help correct that.
Dollar Slides Below Crucial 99.05 Confirmation Level
Weekly Dollar line chart (blue line is 5 SMA, only important when trending)...below 99.05 key confirmation level. https://t.co/XNW1syuTPa
FP Markets Adds Acuity AI-Based Trading Signals
FP Markets has partnered with Acuity Trading to launch FP Markets Intelligence, an AI‑powered suite of trading tools for its retail FX and CFD clients. The platform delivers market sentiment analysis, AI‑driven signals and real‑time research, and is fully integrated...
Independent Inflation Gauge Correctly Predicted Turkey's CPI Decline
#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷: Turkey's March official CPI inflation is 30.8%/yr. That's down from 31.5% in Feb. Today, I measure Turkey's inflation at 20.9%/yr. Since my measure leads the official one, I anticipated that the official number would do just what it did. It...
Global Shift: Gold and Yuan Rise as Dollar Recycling Declines
Translation: MUCH less US dollar recycling... More gold, more yuan; less USD, less UST... #NATO #Iran #Hegemony
Market Success Lies in Reaction, Not Prediction
This is very true I would just add that not only can you never "do" anything to the market but the only intelligent action in the market is reaction rather than prediction https://t.co/oOyO02Go7K
Dollar Flat vs G10, Krona Drops on Soft CPI
On the Edge of the Abyss: The dollar is mostly narrowly mixed against the G10 currencies. Leaving aside the Swedish krona, which has fallen nearly 0.75% on the back of an unexpected soft March CPI, the other G10 currencies are...
Zimbabweans Celebrate New ZiG Notes, Restoring Currency Pride
Zimbabweans are LOVING the new ZiG notes… And yes, they got them from ATMs… And Yes, President @edmnangagwa returned the pride & dignity of Zimbabweans by re-introducing the local currency…. ED2030 Woye 🔥🔥🔥🔥 https://t.co/eykvrLwJN7
US Deadline, Ceasefire Odds Sway Risk Assets, Dollar
The US deadline draws close. It hangs over market activity. It remains binary. A ceasefire will boost risk assets and weigh on the greenback. The opposite is true, as well. Meanwhile, undaunted, the PBOC set the...
Fed Rate Cut Looms, Inflation Cools, Bull Market Awaits
Fed's getting ready to cut rates as inflation cools down. Markets love this combo - cheaper money usually means risk-on mode. Going live at 9am NY to trade this bullish setup with our DOTS indicator showing clear signals. https://t.co/66dSROeuCi https://t.co/23feho9DD6
Swiss Inflation Low, Money Supply Growth on Target
Switzerland’s inflation rate is 0.1%/yr. That's at the lower end of the Swiss target range of 0%-2%/yr. NO SURPRISE. Switzerland’s money supply (M3) just came in at 5.0%/yr. That's within Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 4.4%-6.4%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY...