Today's Currencies Pulse
Rupee flat on hopes West Asia truce will hold
The Indian rupee held steady as markets priced in hopes that a West Asia truce would hold, hovering near ₹95.78 per dollar after slipping 8 paise in early trade. Traders kept a close eye on geopolitical developments while the currency remained largely unchanged.
Ida Wolden Bache: Policy Rate Kept Unchanged at This Meeting
Norway’s central bank, Norges Bank, left its policy rate unchanged at 4 percent, citing persistent inflation above the 2 percent target and heightened uncertainty from rising energy prices. The committee warned that a rate increase is likely in upcoming meetings as wage growth and imported‑goods inflation remain elevated. A stronger Norwegian krone offers some relief on import prices, but overall price pressures keep disinflation on hold. The bank projects the policy rate could rise to 4.25‑4.5 percent by year‑end to steer inflation back to target.
Petrodollar Death Rants Are Wishful, Not Insightful
🧵There’s been an acute breakout of death of the petrodollar thought pieces over the weekend. This should have discerning investors thinking twice. Not about the dollar, however. About piling into an obviously crowded and extremely unoriginal perspective that is mostly...
Abdul Rasheed Ghaffour: Evolving Roles and Responsibilities of Central Banks in a Changing Landscape
Abdul Rasheed Ghaffour argued that central banks must evolve from pure stability stewards to architects of economic resilience. He highlighted four structural pressures—global economic re‑ordering, rapid digital transformation, demographic shifts, and heightened public scrutiny—that are reshaping policy effectiveness. In response,...
Carolyn Rogers: An Anchor of Stability in Uncertain Times
Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers addressed the Brandon Chamber of Commerce, warning that Canada faces three structural forces—U.S. protectionism, demographic slowdown, and artificial intelligence—that are reshaping the economy. She highlighted how trade‑policy volatility, especially Chinese canola tariffs and the upcoming...
Market Metrics That Matter: Cboe FX March Volume Highlights
Cboe FX posted a record‑breaking Spot Average Daily Volume of $74.5 billion in March 2026, a 42.9% jump from a year earlier. The platform also set single‑day highs of $109.1 billion on March 3 for Spot and $6.7 billion on March 6 for its SEF. ECN Firm...
Emotions Up, Profits Down: Discipline Beats Impulse
Emotions high = profits low. Liquidity taken. Structure shifted. Imbalance respected. The setup was perfect… discipline wasn’t. Save this before your next trade. #forex #smartmoney #icttrading #tradingmindset #priceaction
Buy DXY on Break Above 100.20 as USD Rises
Macro: USD strengthens as global stress persists. Key factors: robust US data, rising oil and yields. Risks: Middle East tensions and higher inflation. Trade: Buy DXY on a clean break above 100.20; targets 101–103. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights:...
Washington Post Cites GeoEconomics Research on China’s Cross-Border Digital Currency Platform mBridge
The Washington Post referenced a new GeoEconomics study highlighting China’s cross‑border digital currency platform, mBridge. The research notes that mBridge, built on the digital yuan, now supports real‑time settlements among pilot banks in Hong Kong, Singapore and other Asian hubs....
Iran's Moves
What Iran means for the dollar: a perfect storm for the petrodollar - Deutsche Bank Research Institute https://t.co/gVdGKCUzyc Why have fiat as an intermediary when you could trade oil tokens for wheat tokens (or whatever) ? https://t.co/ocO6m7zPVd
Iranian Rial Gains 9% Amid War, Defying Claims
BNE Intellinews claims that the Iranian rial is "losing ground as military strikes hit infrastructure across the country". WRONG. FACT: Since the beginning of the US-Israeli war on Iran, the Iranian rial has APPRECIATED by 9% vs the USD. https://t.co/6tlVgFd2Lt
Upward Shift: Market-Implied Path of 3 Month SOFR, Pre-War Vs. Now
The secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) now trades about 23 basis points above the Federal Reserve’s median funds‑rate projections for both year‑end 2023 and the end of 2027. This premium emerged after the war in the Middle East shifted market...
Oil Spike Unwinds Carry Trade, Triggers XRP Settlement Crisis
Oil spikes trigger the reverse carry trade unwind. Japan raises rates, US Treasuries flood back, markets take losses across the board. Tether depegs. Exchanges go illiquid and need XRP to settle. Shane Ellis theory puts $500 XRP from Bitfinex alone...
EU Tried Pricing Iraqi Oil in Euros, US Halted Independence
Many on X seem to forget that Europe tried to separate from the US 26 years ago, when the EU arranged for Iraq to sell oil in EUR instead of USD (Source: CNN Int’l👇) The EU would have been independent of...
China’s Yuan May Be Going Global Faster than Western Data Suggests, Analysts Say
Analysts argue that China’s yuan is expanding globally faster than traditional metrics reveal, as an increasing volume of cross‑border transactions now flow through the country’s own payment network, CIPS. Because CIPS and bilateral settlement channels bypass SWIFT’s messaging system, they...
Innovation Requires Production: Rethink USD Reserve for Reindustrialization
“To innovate, you must make.” -INTC CEO Andy Grove, 2011 The reality is we cannot and will not reindustrialize unless we change USD reserve status structure to a system with a neutral reserve asset instead of USTs; it’s a fundamental double-entry...
Rupee Rally Stalls, Marks Biggest 5‑day Drop Since 2022
The Indian rupee's rally seems to have run out of steam. $USDINR ran a 5-day retreat (rupee a rally) through Friday and notched the biggest 5-day drop since Nov 2022. Put in for a bounce today... https://t.co/qewdcUneMg
America’s Currency Is the Global South’s Problem
The article argues that although the U.S. dollar’s share of global foreign reserves has been slipping since its 2001 peak, the decline is incremental, ensuring the greenback’s dominance for the foreseeable future. Nations in the Global South cannot simply wait...
Japan's 10‑Year Yield Peaks, Yen Slumps to 160
Japanese Government 10-Year Yield Highest since 1997, Yen at 160 despite Intervention Threats, But Bond Vigilantes Still Dead. Inflation and deteriorating yen pushed the BOJ into hawkish stance, and bond yields are on their own https://t.co/sF7g5sRsaq https://t.co/XX7yIUKRhS
Iranian Rial Gains 9% Amid US-Israeli Conflict, Media Silent
Since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran 5 weeks ago, the Iranian rial as APPRECIATED by 9% against the USD. THE WESTERN MEDIA (READ: PROPGANDA MACHINE) REMAINS SILENT ON THIS INCONVENIENT FACT. https://t.co/9n42ihPYE9
RBI Likely to Hold Repo Rate at 5.25% Amid West Asia Conflict, Emphasizes Rupee Stability
The Reserve Bank of India is expected to keep its repo rate at 5.25% during its three‑day monetary‑policy committee meeting, citing the West Asia conflict and rising oil prices as key risks. The central bank also plans to reassess inflation...
Weekly US Inflation Updates Vs. Fed Forecasts Begin
Tomorrow, with mtks back to full liquidity, we will start a run of US inflation updates for the week. We start with the NY Fed's Consumer Inflation Expectations reading, then Thursday we have the Fed's preferred PCE deflator and Friday...
Dollar's Global Grip Shows Cracks, Not Collapse
Is the dollar’s global dominance foundation starting to crack or just facing a few termites? 🐜💵 I sat down with former Fed & Treasury insiders @steven_kamin & @sobel_mark to unpack threats to dollar dominance, fiscal policy, Fed independence,...
A Modern Governor
Hyun Song Shin, a leading BIS economist, has been appointed governor of the Bank of Korea. The selection underscores a shift away from the traditional academic‑practitioner debate toward a demand for flexible, analysis‑driven leadership. Shin’s opening remarks stress intellectual rigor...
Ceasefire Triggers Oil Drop, Dollar Decline, EM Rally
A ceasefire is coming. Two things will get repriced quickly when that happens. Oil futures will tumble and the Dollar will fall sharply. The latter is up on safe haven inflows to the US. All those inflows will unwind very...
US Hormuz Deadline Extended, Markets Shift to Dollar, Oil
Cease-Fire Hopes Blunt US Ultimatum: The US deadline on Tehran for re-opening the Strait of Hormuz has subtly shifted until tomorrow. The holiday-thinned market initially bought dollars and oil and took risk off in response to the continued attacks and…...
Understanding the Market Slippage Trap
Corporate treasurers often rely on rolling FX forwards, assuming each renewal fully neutralises exposure, but each roll creates market slippage that erodes margins. Bloomberg’s Global Head of Buyside Treasury, Chintan Shah, warns this hidden cost can turn a prudent hedge...
Cease‑fire Hopes Lift Market, but Negotiators Remain Doubtful
Hope of a cease-fire between US/Israel and Iran has captured the imaginations of the holiday-thinned market today. The negotiators themselves reported are not optimistic. $USD gave back earlier gains and is posting a possible outside down day. See https://t.co/Km1zBLaVJG...
100 Years of Hilton Young Commission
The 1926 Hilton Young Commission, chaired by Edward Hilton Young, examined India’s currency and exchange‑rate challenges and famously advocated for a central bank. Its recommendations directly led to the Reserve Bank of India Act of 1934 and the RBI’s establishment in...
Fed Likely Holds Rates as Markets Price Out 2026 Cuts Amid Oil Shock and Middle‑East Tensions
Traders using the CME Fedwatch Tool assign a 99.5% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will leave the benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% on its April 29 meeting, effectively pricing out any rate cuts for the rest of 2026....
USD Index, Crude Oil, and Stocks: The Savvy Trader’s Personal Outlook on Market Trends and Key Levels
The trader notes the USD Index is holding above an up‑sloping trend line with a key 100 resistance level, while it failed to rally alongside crude oil. Crude markets have shifted focus to WTI, showing strong backwardation and rising back‑month...
US‑Iran Conflict Drives Dollar Surge, Sparks Debate Over Gold’s Safe‑Haven Role
The US‑Iran war has propelled the U.S. dollar to the forefront of safe‑haven assets, with the dollar index climbing more than 2% in March 2026 after a 10% drop in 2025. Gold, by contrast, has slumped over 14% from its...
What Trump Doesn’t Want You to Know About the U.S Dollar Collapse
Steve Keen’s latest post warns that a looming U.S. dollar collapse is being obscured by political narratives, especially President Trump’s aggressive stance toward Iran. He argues that the war’s energy backdrop—rising oil prices and supply disruptions—undermines confidence in the greenback....
The Guardian View on Japan’s Hidden Century: Cheap Money, Global Risk | Editorial
The Bank of Japan’s ultra‑loose policy has turned the yen into the world’s cheapest funding currency, fueling a massive carry‑trade that amassed roughly $435 billion between 2022 and 2024. A modest rate hike in March 2024 barely dented the trade, but the...
Pakistan’s $2 Billion UAE Repayment Widens External Financing Gap, Pressuring Reserves
Pakistan has repaid $2 bn to the United Arab Emirates, widening its external financing gap to an estimated $2.46 bn and trimming foreign exchange reserves. The move comes as Islamabad negotiates a staff‑level IMF deal and faces heightened geopolitical pressure in West...
Warsh Nomination Stalls, Raising Fear of Fed Policy Gridlock
Kevin Warsh's nomination to lead the Federal Reserve remains stalled as Senate Banking Committee ranking member Thom Tillis refuses to advance a vote. The impasse fuels worries that prolonged uncertainty could hamper monetary policy and trigger a shutdown of key...
IMF Urges BOJ to Keep Raising Rates as Iran War Pushes Yen Toward $160
The International Monetary Fund has called on the Bank of Japan to continue raising interest rates despite fresh uncertainty from the Iran war. The recommendation comes as the yen slides toward the 160‑per‑dollar mark, prompting market speculation of further hikes...
Data Deluge, yet Iran Conflict Remains Market Driver
Another week of heavy data but don't be mistaken Iran War will run the show 👇 🇺🇸 US - ISM Services -CPI -Fed Minutes -Durable Goods -Personal income/spending -UMich 🇪🇺 EZ -Retail Sales -PMI Rev -GE Trade & IP 🇨🇦 CA -IVEY -Jobs 🇳🇿 NZ -RBNZ -PMI 🇦🇺 AU Retail Sales
Price Action Reveals Truth; Opinions Spin Stories
Price action tells the truth while opinions tell stories. - Ghost of the Pit https://t.co/K1tiyiMWDu
SGX FX Hires Finalto Exec Charlotte Garrett as Liquidity Manager
SGX FX, the foreign‑exchange arm of the Singapore Exchange, has hired London‑based Charlotte Garrett as Liquidity Manager to strengthen its UK operation. Garrett joins from Finalto, where she served as Operations Officer since 2024, and previously worked at TD Securities...
Debt to Ourselves Just Excuses Unlimited Money Printing
When an argument is made that "Our debt doesn't matter because we owe it to ourselves"...that is code for "we can print the money and just debase the currency"...
Forward Yield Spike Signals Looming Global Debt Crisis
The 10-year Treasury yield is 4.3% (blue) and looks benign. But 10y10y forward yield (red) is 5.5% and pushing above pre-2008 levels. The global debt crisis waits for no one. Fiscal policy is out of control and geopolitical uncertainty makes...
RBI Expected to Hold Repo Rate at 5.25% as West Asia Conflict Fuels Inflation Risks
SBI Research predicts the Reserve Bank of India will leave its benchmark repo rate unchanged at 5.25% during the April 6‑8 MPC meeting. The outlook reflects heightened uncertainty from the West Asia war, soaring oil prices and rising imported inflation...
Policy Moves, Not Data, Drive Oil, Dollar, Gold Trends
On yesterday's live stream, I discussed which oil prices to watch, why the Dollar failed to rise on Friday's strong payrolls and the large drop in gold holdings of Turkey's central bank, which is entirely a function of the decision...
Elliott Wave Analysis of EURUSD – April 6th, 2026
EUR/USD edged up last week but failed to break the psychologically important 1.1500 level. The euro’s modest gain came despite the European Central Bank signaling possible interest‑rate hikes in upcoming meetings. Elliott Wave analysts note that the pair’s direction depends...
Elliott Wave Analysis of USDJPY – April 6th, 2026
The latest Elliott Wave analysis notes that USD/JPY lingered around the 160.00 level last week, buoyed by safe‑haven demand as the Iran‑U.S. conflict escalates. While the pair struggled to break higher, the wave count points to a potential move toward...
RBI Bans Rupee Shorting Tools, but Impact Doubtful
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is stepping in to try to slow the rupee’s slide. By restricting derivatives and other tools traders use to SHORT the rupee, the RBI is trying to suppress bets AGAINST the currency. THE RBI'S ENGAGED...
ECB's Next Meeting: Possible Rate Hike or Hold
Sleijpen says next ECB discussion will be a rate hike or hold https://t.co/nsySCHZ2Ld via @patrickreports https://t.co/QVU1clfZB5
Sleijpen Says ECB Discussion Will Be Rate Hike or Hold: Podcast
Olaf Sleijpen, president of the Dutch central bank, told the College Leaders in Finance podcast that the European Central Bank’s next Governing Council meeting will focus on a binary decision: raise interest rates further or keep them unchanged. He indicated the...
Dollar Is Collapsing—Avoid Holding It, Says Expert
I've had such a wonderful conversation with Matthew Piepenburg. He fully explains why you shouldn't be in the Dollar, as the Dollar is collapsing entirely. Watch his explanation here: https://t.co/ijsmOzj4kx
Ringgit Set to Remain Firm in 2026 Amid Middle East Tensions, Analysts Say
Malaysia's ringgit is projected to stay near 4.00 against the U.S. dollar through 2026 despite ongoing Middle East conflict, as research houses point to a narrowing interest‑rate gap and possible Fed cuts. A cautious trading week ahead reflects mixed US...