Today's Currencies Pulse
RBI logs record $53.13B net dollar sale as rupee slides 9.5%
The Reserve Bank of India recorded its largest net dollar sale in at least 15 years, disposing of $53.13 billion in FY 26, more than double the $25.52 billion sold in FY 23. The rupee weakened about 9.5% against the dollar, prompting heavy RBI intervention in both spot and forward markets, where forward‑market net sales hit a historic negative $103.06 billion in March 2026.
RBA Opens Door to Board Member Speeches in Transparency Push
The Reserve Bank of Australia announced that its monetary policy board members will begin delivering public speeches this year, a move designed to increase transparency around interest‑rate decisions. Academic Ian Harper and business leader Carolyn Hewson are slated to give the inaugural remarks in the coming months, with the remaining four external members scheduled to speak later in 2026 or early 2027. The RBA says the speeches will illuminate the thinking behind policy moves, offering markets clearer guidance. This marks a notable shift from the traditionally private deliberations of the board.
FX Unwind Loss Overstated Amid INR Depreciation
Just relax about this supposed 4,000 crore loss on FX unwinding. Just in the past month the INR has depreciated by over 4%. All these positions would not have been set up for the first time at Friday 27th close....
Foreign Investors Pull $20 B From South Korea’s KOSPI as Won Hits 17‑Year Low
Foreign investors dumped a net 30.3 trillion won ($20 billion) from South Korea’s benchmark KOSPI in March, the largest monthly outflow on record. The sell‑off coincided with the won sliding to its lowest level since 2009, intensifying concerns over capital flows and...
JPMorgan Strategist Rejects Near‑Term Fed Rate‑Cut Forecasts
JPMorgan Chase’s head strategist publicly dismissed market speculation that the Federal Reserve will lower rates in the second half of 2026. The warning aims to curb premature corporate financing moves and recalibrate FP&A forecasts across the economy.
How Month-End Rebalancing Moves the Forex Market
At month‑end, pension funds, insurers and asset managers rebalance portfolios, triggering large foreign‑exchange trades. These flows, often billions of dollars, concentrate around the London 4 p.m. fix and can move major pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY. When U.S. equities...
Why Kenneth Rogoff Thinks China’s Yuan Will Be a Reserve Currency ‘in the Next 5 Years’
Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff predicts China’s yuan will join the ranks of global reserve currencies within five years. He argues that the U.S. dollar faces a legitimacy crisis due to mounting debt, political fragmentation, and waning confidence among central banks....
It's a Very Light Economic and Event Calendar in Asia Today. Bank of Japan 'Summary'.
The Bank of Japan left its short‑term interest rate unchanged at the March 18‑19 policy meeting and issued a “Summary of Opinions” documenting the board’s discussion. The summary outlines members’ views on domestic and global growth, inflation, employment, and the...
Monday Open Indicative Forex Prices, 30 March 2026
ForexLive notes that Monday’s opening market is characterized by thin liquidity as Asian centers are still coming online, making price movements more volatile. The U.S. dollar is showing modest early strength against its peers. Traders are cautioned to expect swings...
SBI Funds Flags Israel‑Iran War as New Strain on Rupee, Remittances and Fiscal Outlook
SBI Funds Management warned that the ongoing Israel‑Iran conflict could pressure the Indian rupee, reduce outbound remittances and widen the fiscal deficit. The alert comes as oil prices surge, the rupee weakens and global investors adopt a defensive stance.
Dispatch€s From Frankfurt - ECB: Graduated Response
The European Central Bank’s annual Frankfurt conference highlighted a sober mood as policymakers grapple with the lingering energy‑price shock and geopolitical risks from the war in the Middle East. President Christine Lagarde’s keynote outlined a "graduated response" strategy, emphasizing scenario‑based...
UAE’s Closure Drives Iran Toward Chinese Banking
The faster UAE closes money window on Iran, quicker China becomes Iran's banker. 1)China pays for Iranian oil into Chnse bank accts2) Iran buys gold w CNY in Shanghai's CNY gold mkt & do what Russia did w China after...
Stagflation and War Trigger Biggest 60/40 Loss Since 2022
Stagflationary winds and the biggest monthly loss for the classic 60/40 investment portfolio since 2022, the global economic and financial fallout of the Middle East War are tangible. This week’s data deluge will help us assess how much resilience remains in...
Israel's Central Bank Expected to Hold Rate at 4% Amid Iran‑Israel War Inflation Fears
Israel's central bank is poised to keep its policy rate at 4% as the Iran‑Israel war enters its fifth week, stoking inflation concerns. The bank will also publish its first post‑conflict economic projections, a move that could shape shekel dynamics...
Heavy Data Week Ahead, Iran Conflict Still Dominates
This week is packed with market moving data but Iran War will remain a key focus 👇 🇺🇸 US -Retail Sales -Non-Farm Payrolls -ADP -Chicago PMI -ISM Mfg -Confidence -Trade 🇪🇺 EZ -EZ CPI & GE CPI -Confidence -GE Retail Sales -GE Unemployment 🇬🇧 UK -GDP 🇨🇦 CA -GDP -Trade 🇦🇺 AU -RBA Minutes -Trade 🇯🇵 JP -CPI -Retail Sales -Tankan
Fed's Tightening Leeway Evaporates Amid New Data
Good thing the Fed has plenty of room to tighten conditions to address this… Oh wait…. https://t.co/xZ0zMju2vr https://t.co/uMkuuXymWU
Finance Ministry Flags Rising External Risks as Trade Deficit and CAD Expand
India’s external sector is under strain as merchandise exports slipped 0.8% year‑on‑year while imports surged 24.1%, driven largely by gold and silver purchases. The trade deficit more than doubled to roughly $27.1 billion in February 2026, widening the current‑account gap to...
Turkey Sells Billions in Gold to Prop Lira
Turkey is selling gold to support the lira. Over the past two weeks, the central bank has sold around 58 tons (~$8 billion). At the same time, since 2020, Turkey has been among the top three gold buyers (alongside China and Poland)....
Dollar Weaponization Reshapes Finance, Gold, and Investment Flows
The “weaponization of the dollar” has profound implications for financial plumbing, the dollar itself, and investment flows—including gold. @edwardfishman’s Chokepoints is a must-read on history/key players/dynamics. Thanks @nfergus for the recommendation. https://t.co/4AcmzUniud
Mexico Slashes Rates as Peso Slides Past 18 per Dollar Amid Oil Spill Fallout
The Bank of Mexico voted 3‑2 to cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 6.75%, even as headline inflation rose to 4.63%. The move sent the peso past 18 per U.S. dollar, a level not seen since December,...
Dollar Weakness Paused; Brazil Set to Surge Post‑war
The Dollar downtrend has now been meaningfully disrupted. But that doesn't mean it's over. As soon as this war ends - and it must because of the midterms - Dollar weakness will reassert itself. EM commodity exporters like Brazil will...
Turkey Alone Sells Gold Amid Fragile Currency Peg
A recurrent theme since war began is that central banks are selling gold. That's mostly not true, but there is one central bank that did. Turkey's gold holdings have fallen 50 tons in recent weeks. But Turkey is an outlier...
RBI Caps Banks' Net‑open FX Exposure at $100 Million as Rupee Falls 4%
The Reserve Bank of India imposed a $100 million net‑open foreign‑exchange position ceiling on domestic banks, a move that comes as the rupee weakened 4% against the dollar. Banks warned of mark‑to‑market losses and have asked the RBI for temporary relief,...
Euro Adoption Spikes Bulgaria's Inflation Beyond ECB Target
Bulgaria’s FORCED ADOPTION of the Euro was supposed to benefit Bulgaria. Instead, inflation sits at 3.32%/yr, WELL ABOVE the ECB's 2%/yr inflation target. As the Father of Bulgaria’s currency board, I predicted this. https://t.co/c3KVbZZNxx
Borrowing on Track,
Half the annual borrowing in half the year is completely in line with estimates. A crisis may also need additional borrowing, let's see. Rbi will also announce a pay out soon and the balance sheet is way too large, hope...
JPMorgan Says Fed Rate Cuts Unlikely in H2 2026, Citing High Hike Bar
JPMorgan chief strategist Oksana Aronov told CNBC the Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower rates in the second half of 2026, arguing that the bar for any hike remains high. The comment comes as CME FedWatch data shows traders have...
Japan’s Low Inflation Mirrors Sluggish Money Supply Growth
Japan’s inflation eases to 1.26%/yr in February, BELOW its inflation target of 2%/yr. Japan’s money supply (M2) is growing at 1.73%/yr, WELL BELOW Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of ~6.07%/yr, consistent w/ Japan’s 2%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY...
Iran Conflict Spikes Oil, Fuels Inflation, Stalls Rate Cuts
The war in Iran has set off a chain of events, with soaring oil prices driving higher inflation expectations, lower rate cut odds, and a pullback in precious metals.
The Dollar Is Still the Main Character in Both Forex and Crypto
Despite talk of decentralisation, the US dollar continues to be the core reference point for both traditional foreign‑exchange markets and digital‑asset trading. In forex, the greenback anchors major currency pairs, risk sentiment and reserve holdings, while in crypto, prices, stablecoins...
IMF Staff‑Level Deal Unlocks $1.2 Bn for Pakistan, Bolstering Currency and Balance‑of‑Payments
The International Monetary Fund reached a staff‑level agreement with Pakistan, releasing a $1.2 bn tranche—$1.0 bn from the Extended Fund Facility and $210 m from the Resilience and Sustainability Facility. The deal is aimed at shoring up Pakistan’s balance‑of‑payments, stabilising the rupee and...
War Risks Renew Bond Market Crises Across Europe
The last time we had a supply shock and oil prices rose - in 2022 - Italy and Spain got the ECB to cap their yields to survive and the UK bond market blew up in the LDI crisis. If...
RBI Caps Banks' USD Exposure at $100 Million
RBI has directed banks to reduce their holdings of Dollar (USD) positions. • RBI has set a maximum Net Open Position (NOP) limit of $100 million for banks. • This means banks can now hold no more than $100 million...
Newsquawk Week Ahead Highlights (and Week in Review): 30th March – 3rd April 2026
The week ahead is dominated by central‑bank minutes and key data releases that could reshape monetary policy trajectories. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s minutes reveal a hawkish tone after a 25‑basis‑point hike to 4.10%, while the Eurozone’s CPI flash jumps...
India's Forex Reserves Slip Below $700bn as Gold Loss Triggers $11.4bn Drop
India's foreign exchange reserves fell $11.4 bn to $698 bn in the week ended March 20, driven by a $13.5 bn plunge in gold holdings as global prices slipped 10%. The decline pushed the rupee to fresh record lows and raised questions about the...
Asset Supply Surges, Credit Stagnates Amid Wage Stagnation
Note sent to clients. Overall macro synthesis and update based on war related conditions impact and pricing. What we are doing about it is for clients only. Based on all things happening in the world my macro view is...
Reserve Currency Advantage No Longer Erodes Domestic Industry
the idea that the privilege of the reserve currency automatically guts the domestic industrial base was true when the world was globalizing, there was one supply chain, and the law of one price was intact. Those days are over....
Elliott Wave Analysis of USDCAD – March 30th, 2026
The USDCAD pair surged sharply last week as investors fled to the U.S. dollar, pushing the pair toward the 1.4000 psychological barrier. Meanwhile, traditional safe‑haven assets such as gold, equities and cryptocurrencies weakened, reflecting a broad risk‑off mood. The latest...
Claims Original Reverse Carry Trade Idea, Accuses Others of Theft
All these mother fuckers who made personal attacks on me because they disagreed with my reverse carry trade thesis on Japan are literally stealing shit from me now. Don’t you ever fucking forget I’m the OG of the idea.
Post‑2008 Dollarisation Wave Restores 2000‑Era Share
Three distinct waves of dollarisation since the 1960s. The most recent wave, which emerged after the 2008 global crisis, pushed the dollar's share to nearly match its level from 2000, when the euro was introduced. https://t.co/A6TnrvTxXS
AUD and NZD Tumble to Two‑month Lows as Middle East War Dents Commodity Demand
The Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar fell to their lowest levels in about two months on Thursday, pressured by a sharp rise in fuel prices and a broader slowdown in commodity demand linked to the war in the Middle...
War Risks Clash with Aggressive Central Bank Pricing
New monthly drops. https://t.co/FItBCcQzTd Trade wars, kinetic wars, and anticipated policy responses ripple through the capital markets. Optimism of short war contrasts with pricing in aggressive CB policy. https://t.co/qPeHeyxa7a
Turkey Leverages Gold Reserves for Liquidity, Defends Lira
#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷: It's hard to beat gold as a central bank reserve. Turkey is reportedly using its HOARD of gold reserves in swap operations to obtain liquidity and defend the Turkish Lira. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/rVUGXc6WeD
In Hawala Universe, It's a Partial Eclipse of Dollar
India's informal hawala market is trading the dollar‑rupee pair at a 1‑2% discount to the official rate, a rare reversal of the usual 2% premium. The shift stems from reduced gold smuggling out of Dubai, fewer Gulf‑bound travelers, and broader...
India's Rupee Hits Record Low Amid US‑Israel Iran Conflict
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: The Indian rupee has PLUNGED to a RECORD LOW. Thanks to the US and Israel's attack on Iran, India is paying a high cost. MODI SHOULD SEND THE BILL TO WASHINGTON DC AND JERUSALEM. https://t.co/T9AjFXiDVU
Western Markets Rise, Middle East Falls, Gold Steadies at $4100/Oz
How the west was won, the MidEast was lost & $4100/oz gold held https://t.co/VJQ1W1pdz5 #forex #XAUUSD $GLD
Japan Finance Minister Warns of Decisive Action as Yen Nears 160 per Dollar
Japan's finance minister, Satsuki Katayama, warned Friday that authorities will respond firmly and take decisive action to stop the yen's slide toward the 160‑per‑dollar mark. The warning came as the currency fell to about 159.80 per dollar in New York,...
Bank Flows Explain $3 Trillion China Surplus‑Reserve Gap
As I mentioned on Wednesday, there is a $3 trillion gap between China's accumulated current account surplus since the pandemic and China's unchanged reserves (and a corresponding gap in visible flows into the US) Bank flows make up most of the...
Liquidity Crunch, Not Recession, Will Trigger Next Market Crash
Hot take: the next drawdown won’t be “a recession.” It’ll be a liquidity accident. Dollar firm. FX carry crowded. Credit tightens quietly. Then everyone acts shocked. Markets don’t blow up from headlines. They blow up from plumbing. https://t.co/oS1ebUhkzJ
Analysis: What Might Trip up Kevin Warsh and His Agenda as Fed Chair
Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor backed by President Trump, is poised for a contentious nomination as Federal Reserve chair. He advocates rapid rate cuts despite $100‑a‑barrel oil prices and rising inflation forecasts, while also promising to slash the Fed’s...
EUR/USD Selloff Accelerates; Bottom Remains Unclear
Euro Q2 Outlook: EUR/USD Selloff Accelerates – Where Is the Bottom? https://t.co/tcAqDgTQxZ $EURUSD Weekly & Monthly Charts https://t.co/o5x5v4BsVL
Iran War Sparks Global Stagflation, EM Rate Hike Pressure
OUT NOW - Former PIMCO Sovereign Credit Head on Iran War's global stagflation shock & risks for sovereign bonds. EM central banks don't have luxury of "seeing through" $100 oil - many will feel pressure to hike Apple 🔊https://t.co/FbjlbTwSHF Spotify📽️https://t.co/BWmky8uYIF https://t.co/eMPzAa5H18