Know What's Happening in Currencies
Know What's Happening in Currencies
ECB faces binary decision on rates, says Dutch central bank chief
Olaf Sleijpen, president of the Dutch central bank, told a finance podcast that the European Central Bank’s upcoming Governing Council meeting will centre on either raising interest rates further or keeping them unchanged. He noted the discussion will take place in Frankfurt in a few weeks when the board reviews fresh inflation data.
U.S. consumer price index data for January showed annual inflation easing to 2.4% from 2.7% in December, missing the 2.5% market forecast. Monthly CPI rose 0.2% and core CPI remained at 2.5% year‑over‑year, matching expectations. The softer headline number nudged the USD index lower, with the yen posting the biggest weekly gain against the greenback. Analysts see the reading as a potential catalyst for future Federal Reserve rate‑cut discussions, while EUR/USD hovers around 1.19.
Silver (XAG/USD) slipped to $77.35 on Friday, unable to sustain a breakout above the $79 resistance level. The metal is trapped below the 50‑period SMA at $81, reinforcing a bearish technical bias. A firm US Dollar Index and cautious market...
CPI falling on Friday the 13th is the ultimate "Freaky Friday" energy. 👻 Is inflation actually cooling to 2.5%, or is the ghost of 2022 about to jump out of the data? I’m navigating the madness and trading the US CPI release...
In this episode, host Eimear Daly and emerging‑market specialist Aditya Sharma break down the newly signed India‑US trade agreement, highlighting how it could boost Indian equities and strengthen the rupee by improving export competitiveness and attracting foreign investment. They then...
Rabobank analysts Molly Schwartz and Christian Lawrence project the USD/CAD pair to remain largely sideways throughout 2026, confined to a 1.36‑1.41 band. The outlook is driven by persistent US‑Canada trade tensions, a looming USMCA review, and a weakening U.S. dollar...
$USD enjoys a firmer tone ahead of the US CPI. Over 5 bln euro options at $1.1850 expire today. Session low so far is slightly below there. GBP530 mln options at $1.36 expire today. Session low so...
The European Parliament voted overwhelmingly to endorse two amendments to the ECB’s annual report, labeling the digital euro “essential” for monetary sovereignty, payment‑system resilience and universal acceptance. The first amendment passed with 438 votes, the second with 420, signalling political...
Poland’s January flash CPI showed headline inflation at 2.2% YoY, modestly above the 1.9% consensus but still under the NBP’s 2.5% ± 1‑point target. The decline was driven by a 7.1% drop in gasoline prices, while food prices held steady at 2.4%...
OANDA Japan announced on February 13, 2026 that it is reducing the maximum open position size for the XAU/USD pair from 10,000 units (100 lots) to 3,000 units (30 lots). The broker cited unusually volatile price movements in the precious‑metals...
CySEC announced the withdrawal of Investors Compensation Fund membership for VM Vita Markets Ltd and HTFX (EU) Ltd after revoking their Cyprus Investment Firm licences. The regulator clarified that covered clients retain the right to compensation for transactions executed before...
US dollar primary market began 2026 with robust corporate issuance, totaling $56 bn in January, driven largely by technology, media and telecom (TMT) firms contributing $24 bn. Banks led the financial sector, printing $134 bn of senior non‑preferred bonds, a $20 bn year‑to‑date increase...
India’s rupee ended Friday essentially unchanged, closing at 90.6350 per dollar, a slight dip from the prior session. The currency faced pressure from weak domestic equities, elevated interbank dollar demand, and maturing non‑deliverable forward contracts, while the Reserve Bank of...
🚨 THIS COULD BE A GAME CHANGER FOR METALS AND RISK ASSETS Big news emerged yesterday: Russia is seriously considering returning to dollar-based settlements as part of a broader economic partnership with President Trump. For the past 3–4 years, Russia has been...
The US exorbitant privilege - the ability to issue debt more cheaply than others - ended about a decade ago. We're now issuing debt at a premium, the result of deficits and debt that are out of control. This change...
Romania’s economy entered recession in early 2024 and posted a 1.9% quarterly contraction in Q4 2025, the steepest drop since 2012. Revised data also turned Q1 2025 growth negative, prompting analysts to slash the 2026 GDP outlook from 1.4% to 0.6%. The...
The Dollar is Firm Ahead of January CPI: The US dollar is firm against the G10 currencies ahead of the US January CPI. The week began with news that Chinese officials were encouraging de-risking from US Treasuries. Helped by stronger...
ECB staff comes up with the revolutionary idea of adding even more oversight and regulation
Rakuten Securities will overhaul the MetaTrader 4 login process. Beginning Saturday, February 28 2025, the broker will issue random passwords for its MT4, MT4 Securities CFD and MT4 Commodity CFD accounts. After Saturday, February 28 2026, direct MT4 logins will be permanently disabled, requiring traders...
Last CPI missed expectations 3 months in a row. If it happens again today, rate cut bets explode and the dollar dumps. I'm trading it LIVE at 8AM ET. Don't watch from the sidelines 👇 https://t.co/gAw05zLlQ8
Poland’s economy posted a 4.0% year‑on‑year increase in the fourth quarter of 2025, outpacing the 3.8% growth recorded in Q3. Quarterly expansion accelerated to 1.0% from 0.9% in the prior period, driven primarily by a surge in private consumption that...
Turkey posted a December current‑account deficit of $7.3 bn, well above the $5.3 bn forecast, pushing the 12‑month rolling deficit to $25.2 bn (about 1.8 % of GDP). The gap widened mainly because the trade balance slipped to a $‑7.4 bn deficit and primary‑income balances...
The Vietnamese dollar rose 0.5% on the black market to VND 26,547 per U.S. dollar, while the official Vietcombank rate stayed at VND 26,160. The State Bank of Vietnam trimmed its reference rate marginally to VND 25,049. Globally, the greenback is set for...
ECB has yet to see full impact of euro appreciation, Kazaks says https://t.co/qqisWsfsJD via @aaroneglitis @Skolimowski https://t.co/TTDxRGmgMY
Almost €1 trillion of Dutch pension assets are slated to transition by 2027, but early hedge rebalancing has already begun. Smaller funds moved interest‑rate hedges in December 2025, while larger players like PMT and PFZW are timing their flows for the first...
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: In the first Inflation Report of 2026, CBRT Gov. Fatih Karahan revised the end-2026 inflation forecast from 13–19% to 15–21%. Turkey's monetary policy remains TOO LOOSE. https://t.co/EC5mR04dt6
#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷: In January, Turkey's official inflation was reported at 30.7%/yr. That's SIX TIMES HIGHER than the CBRT’s 5%/yr inflation target. Among other things, Turkey’s sky-high inflation is squeezing its famous TV dramas, which draw crowds of 1 billion+ worldwide. https://t.co/nr4JytEGeV
Monex Group announced that Pascal St‑Jean, currently Coincheck’s Chief Growth Officer and CEO of 3iQ Corp, will assume the roles of CEO, President and Executive Director of Coincheck Group effective immediately. Gary Simanson, the incumbent CEO, will resign by March 31, 2026....
"CBDCs... most significant resilience potential lies in user-centric design features, including offline functionality, flexible front-end solutions, and programmability for crisis response" Not my words. The IMF. https://t.co/aauwvtxTG8 https://t.co/O4sEWC2AN2
Japan is set to publish key macro data next week, including Q4 2025 GDP, export figures, and inflation. Analysts forecast a modest 0.3% quarter‑on‑quarter GDP rebound after a 0.6% contraction, driven by recovering construction and strong semiconductor exports. Inflation is expected...
Are stock markets in trouble if US CPI data points the Fed away from bolder interest rate cuts? #stockmarkets #CPI #Fed #DOLLAR #macro #trading https://t.co/2Ij9Tr0kWM
In this episode, Phil and NAB’s Ray Attrill dissect the widening gap between New Zealand and Australia as AI‑driven investment costs strain US markets and commodity prices slide, while the Aussie dollar weakens below 71 cents. They explore how rising AI spending,...
The Reserve Bank of Australia announced that Professor Bruce Preston has been appointed to the Monetary Policy Board, effective immediately. Preston brings a distinguished academic record and extensive experience in public‑policy economics. Governor Michele Bullock also thanked outgoing board member...
A pet peeve. Talk about current dollar weakness. Numbers here are through December -- but in December the broad inflation adjusted dollar was stronger than in 01 or 02, the peak before 22-24 1/ https://t.co/c7KU9z1C6t
Prominent Chinese economists Miao Yanliang and Ju Jiandong have called for easing capital controls, arguing that the current weakening U.S. dollar and a strengthening yuan present a rare opportunity to increase the currency’s value abroad. They describe 2023 and 2024...
🔴 TOMORROW: US CPI drops at 8:30 AM Core forecast at a near 5-year low. Hot print → Nasdaq dumps Cool print → Rate cuts back on the table Either way, there's a trade to be made. Join me LIVE at 8AM ET to...
Record gold prices + a weakening dollar don’t scream “risk-on.” They signal global capital reallocation and rising demand for insurance amid lingering policy uncertainty. Hedging behavior is increasing even as equities grind higher.
The MacroBusiness note observes that the U.S. dollar index (DXY) halted its decline amid political headlines, while the Australian dollar stayed firm despite broader risk aversion. Beijing is expected to intervene to limit further yuan gains, and the resilience of...
The latest benchmark revision of the All‑Employees Total Nonfarm Vintage index reveals that post‑Liberation Day employment figures are weaker than previously reported, especially for August. The revised data shows a sharper decline during months associated with tariff policies, while months...
GOLD ( XAUUSD ) just dumped over a 1000 pips after yesterday's NFP , but what just happened ? 👇 Netanyanho signalled towards de-escalation in the middle east with a potential deal b/w Iran & US This optimistic headlines lead to a...
Alex Gurevich joins Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna on MacroVoices to outline his outlook for fixed‑income markets and the broader macro environment. He argues that the Federal Reserve will keep a restrictive policy stance into 2026, keeping inflation pressures in...
Wall Street expects a cooler month for headline inflation but a hotter month for core in January Headline CPI: 0.26% m/m, 2.5% y/y (down from 0.31% m/m and 2.7% y/y in December) Core CPI: 0.34% m/m, 2.5% y/y (core m/m accelerating from...
A Massive Global Wealth Transfer Is Coming Americans will consume less, the rest of the world more. Capital is flowing overseas. This isn’t a crisis, it’s a wealth transfer — and there are winners if you know where to look. PeterSchiff #Economy...
Don't do this to me...I need my coffee. KC futs have tentatively held up the midpoint of the 2023-2025 bull run (around 290) https://t.co/9M9FIFrM6A
Notable FX option expirations tomorrow: 5.25 bln euros at $1.1850 $1.8 bln at JPY152.00 GBP530 mln at $1.36 https://t.co/JP6hOX0qdC
British Pound Forecast: GBP/USD Coils Below Resistance- Breakout to Set the Trend https://t.co/YCL1AwKRyY $GBPUSD Weekly Chart https://t.co/VuEneX3o2g
Europe’s best bet for financial sovereignty is a true safe asset https://t.co/RSxLjLtB5u "A European safe asset would complete the long-overdue EU financial architecture: a savings and investment union... and a credible euro-denominated stablecoin market." https://t.co/LgAAIH6tb6
China usually liberalizes its financial account when the PBOC (now the state banks) are accumulating assets at too rapid a pace, and it wans the dollar risk to be taken by others ... 1/2
Bingo And the global trade surplus (ex pharma) is now primarily in China, Taiwan and Korea ... Important qualification to the now standard argument the dollar has gotten weaker (which is true primarily if the clock starts at the end of 24,...
Another FX PSA: $EURCHF has extended its generational slide lower to fresh record lows. Yield differentials don't matter at all here apparently: https://t.co/cHMUxde914
Something big is going on with the Dollar. In the past decade, strong data have pushed the Dollar up, but that isn't what happened yesterday. We're going back to the regime that prevailed before, whereby strong data push the Dollar...
