Today's Currencies Pulse
RBI logs record $53.13B net dollar sale as rupee slides 9.5%
The Reserve Bank of India recorded its largest net dollar sale in at least 15 years, disposing of $53.13 billion in FY 26, more than double the $25.52 billion sold in FY 23. The rupee weakened about 9.5% against the dollar, prompting heavy RBI intervention in both spot and forward markets, where forward‑market net sales hit a historic negative $103.06 billion in March 2026.
Poland’s External Current Account Deteriorated in February Amid Rising Flows From China
Poland's external current account turned from a €1.05 billion surplus in January to a €990 million deficit in February, roughly $1.07 billion. The deficit was driven by a €1.025 billion goods trade shortfall, offset by a robust €3.029 billion services surplus (about $3.27 billion). Imports surged 3.3% year‑on‑year, led by Chinese consumer goods and passenger cars, while exports rose only 1.9% YoY, widening the trade balance to –1.4% of GDP. Analysts now project the current‑account gap to reach 1.4% of GDP in 2026, double the 2025 level, though the impact on the zloty is expected to be limited.
Sell Limit AUDNZD: Target 1.1972, Manage Risk
AUDNZD SELL LIMIT 1.21497 SL 1.22124 TP 1.19720 📊 Trading Instruction ⚠️ If price reaches the target before our trade activates, we will delete the pending order 💰 Always follow proper money management 🤲 Starting our first trade of the week in the name of Allah
Weekly Technical Outlook: USD, Major Pairs, and Gold
US Dollar, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, Gold Weekly Technical Outlook (Webinar Archive) https://t.co/8ZwYFGI6Sm Asset Chaptered on YouTube: https://t.co/BpRaX96dnw
Brazil Raises Selic to 14.75% as Inflation Stalls at 4.1% in March
Brazil's central bank lifted the benchmark Selic rate to 14.75%, the highest level since 2006, after the IPCA consumer price index posted a 4.14% year‑over‑year increase in March 2026. The move targets stubborn services inflation and sharp spikes in transport...
US Deficit Not Caused by Dollar, Says Obstfeld
Don't blame America's current account deficit on the dollar Hugely important NEW essay by Maury Obstfeld @PIIE ahead of this week's G7/G20 global imbalances focus. https://t.co/sWxu77W2qk
Turkey's Currency Intervention Masks Pre‑Existing Current‑Account Deficit
Turkey obviously intervened heavily to limit depreciation pressure (and an inflationary shock) in March (and I guess bought a bit of fx back last week). But Turkey's real problem is that its current account deficit was widening even before the oil...
US Treasury Yields Rise to 4.33% as Dollar Surges After US‑Iran Talks Collapse
The collapse of US‑Iran peace talks and President Trump's threat to blockade the Strait of Hormuz sent the dollar higher and triggered a safe‑haven rally in bonds. US 10‑year Treasury yields jumped 2 basis points to 4.33%, while European sovereign...
Global Trading in INR Derivatives and the Indian OTC Derivatives Market
Global trading in Indian‑rupee (INR) derivatives has surged over the past decade, positioning the currency as a key hedge instrument. The Bank for International Settlements’ April 2025 survey ranks INR 11th in overall FX derivatives and 17th in interest‑rate derivatives. A...
Hungarian Forint Leads Global Currency Gains Today
Hungarian forint is far and away the best performing major currency in the world today https://t.co/fg6Z1FKw5u
Rate Hike Bets Increase After the Failed US-Iran Talks as Energy Prices Remain Elevated
Traders have raised expectations for rate hikes after the collapse of US‑Iran peace talks, which revived fears of a prolonged conflict. WTI crude oil climbed back above $100 per barrel following President Trump's announcement of a naval blockade in the...
China New Bank Loans Slow Further in the First Quarter This Year
China's new yuan loans slowed sharply in Q1 2026, with March lending hitting ¥2.99 trillion (about $420 billion), well below the ¥3.4 trillion ($480 billion) forecast. Total new bank credit for the quarter fell to ¥8.6 trillion ($1.2 trillion), a decline from ¥9.8 trillion ($1.37 trillion) a year...
Why Are Global Imbalances Rising, and Why Does It Matter?
In this episode of the Sound of Economics, Bruegel director Jermyn Zettelmeier and CEPR president Beatrice Vedder de Mauro discuss the 2023 Paris Report on global imbalances, tracing their historical evolution and highlighting why they matter again today. They explain...
Turkey’s Current Account Deficit Widens Further
Turkey’s current account deficit widened to $7.5 billion in February, surpassing forecasts and pushing the 12‑month deficit to $35.4 billion, or about 2.4 % of GDP. The trade gap turned negative, expanding to $‑7.5 billion, driven by higher gold imports despite lower energy costs....
Yuan’s ‘Golden Window’ Is Open, Former PBOC Governor Says as US Dollar Credibility Teeters
Former PBOC governor Zhou Xiaochuan warned that U.S. policy choices—tariffs, sanctions and geopolitical tensions—are weakening dollar credibility, creating a "golden window" for the yuan. He noted rising capital inflows are putting upward pressure on the renminbi and highlighted China’s 2009...
FX Daily: Failed Peace Talks Give the Dollar a Brief Lift
After US‑Iran peace talks in Islamabad stalled, the DXY index nudged up about 0.4%, while oil prices jumped 7‑8% on news of a U.S. naval blockade aimed at curbing Iran’s roughly one‑million‑barrel‑per‑day exports. The limited rally reflects market relief that...
BOJ Governor Ueda: Underlying Inflation Gradually Accelerating Towards Target
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said underlying inflation is gradually moving toward the 2% target, but highlighted the mixed impact of the U.S.-Iran conflict. Rising oil prices are adding cost‑push pressure while wage growth remains strong, with the latest...
Unveiling the Dollar’s Parallel Life
A cup of tea and Sunday as the Lord intended: listening and learning about The Dollar's Parallel Life https://t.co/pxVH4gPcrk with the brilliant Izzy Kaminska. https://t.co/VhALGHNKQm
We Are Stuck in a Currency Doom Loop
The Financial Times opinion piece titled "We are stuck in a currency doom loop" argues that many economies are caught in a self‑reinforcing cycle of currency weakness, rising inflation and higher borrowing costs. It points to policy missteps, fragile fiscal...
Oil Prices Spike Over Strait of Hormuz Threat, Lifting CAD and NOK
President Donald Trump’s warning that the U.S. will block ships in the Strait of Hormuz sent Brent crude up 8% to $102 a barrel. The jump revived gains in oil‑linked currencies such as the Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone, while...
Morningstar Flags Fragile Ceasefire, IMF Forecasts and US PPI as Week's Top FX Movers
Morningstar's weekly FX and bond outlook warns that a two‑week cease‑fire in the Middle East, upcoming IMF forecasts, and US producer‑price data will dominate currency moves. Analysts see the cease‑fire as fragile, while US inflation numbers could shape the Fed's...
BOJ Mulls Yen‑Boosting Policy as Inflation Nears 2% Target, JGB Yields Poised for Shift
Japan’s trade minister Ryosei Akazawa said the Bank of Japan may use monetary policy to lift the yen by 10‑15% to tame inflation, while markets assign a roughly 60% probability to a rate hike on April 28. The prospect of a...
Global Banks Play Hedge Card After RBI Blow on Rupee Bets
The Reserve Bank of India imposed a $100 million cap on banks’ net open positions for on‑shore foreign‑exchange forwards, forcing foreign banks to unwind lucrative arbitrage trades that profit from price differentials with offshore non‑deliverable forwards (NDFs). To mitigate the impact,...
Dollar Spikes as US‑Iran Talks Fail, Safe‑haven Demand Rises
JUST IN: The US dollar surges after US-Iran peace talks collapse, driving a fresh demand for safe-haven assets.
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Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER): Definition, Formula, and Importance
The real effective exchange rate (REER) is an inflation‑adjusted index that gauges a country’s currency strength against a weighted basket of its major trading partners’ currencies. It is calculated by averaging bilateral exchange rates, applying trade‑share weights, and adjusting for...
HKMA Grants HSBC and Anchorpoint Financial Stablecoin Licences
The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has issued stablecoin issuer licences to HSBC and Anchorpoint Financial under the city’s Stablecoins Ordinance, with the authorisations taking effect on April 10. These licences allow the two firms to create and distribute regulated digital...
India’s $700 Bn Forex Reserve Buffer Shields Rupee Amid Middle‑East Conflict
India’s foreign‑exchange reserves have risen to almost $700 bn, providing coverage for more than 11 months of imports and covering 94% of external debt. The Economic Survey says the buffer protects the rupee as oil prices climb and geopolitical risk spikes...
RBI Holds Repo Rate at 5.25% as West Asia Tensions Keep Inflation Risks Alive
The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee left the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% and signaled a neutral stance, warning that West Asia conflict risks could keep inflationary pressures high. The decision narrows the window for near‑term rate cuts and boosts the...
Light Data Week Ahead, Keep an Eye on Iran
This week looks like a lighter data week which watch Iran 🇺🇸 US -PPI -Beige Book -Empire State -Philly Fed 🇪🇺 EZ -EZ IP -EZ CPI Revisions 🇬🇧 GB GDP & IP 🇦🇺 AU -Jobs report -Inflation Expectations 🇳🇿 NZ PMI Composite & Services 🇨🇳 CN GDP, IP & Retail Sales
THE $7 TRILLION FLOOR: It's 50% Above Pandemic Levels as a Starting Point, It's Expanding Again, & Why the Fed's...
The Federal Reserve has ended its balance‑sheet runoff and resumed large‑scale asset purchases, effectively restarting a new quantitative‑easing phase. The central bank’s balance sheet now hovers around $7 trillion, more than 50% above its pre‑pandemic size, establishing a higher permanent floor....
The Dollar’s Special Status: Sources and Threats
A recent Al‑Jazeera analysis highlights Iran and China’s move to collect Strait of Hormuz tolls in yuan or cryptocurrency, signaling a push against US dollar dominance. The piece revisits long‑standing "dollar doomerism" narratives that predict the currency’s imminent decline, noting...
Ethiopian Birr Becomes Weakest Sub‑Saharan Currency, Down 18% in 2025
The World Bank’s latest Africa Economic Update flags the Ethiopian birr as the continent’s weakest currency, slipping 18% year‑on‑year through 2025. The depreciation outpaces regional peers and underscores the strain of Ethiopia’s recent forex liberalisation and macro‑economic reforms.
India Forex Regulator Criticizes Banks’ Rupee Arbitrage Trades
The Reserve Bank of India’s deputy governor publicly criticized foreign‑exchange market makers for exacerbating the rupee’s weakness amid heightened Middle East tensions and large foreign outflows. He highlighted that arbitrage between on‑shore and offshore markets is draining dollar liquidity at...
Why DRC Central Bank Is Banning Dollar Use
The Central Bank of the Congo announced that, effective April 9 2027, it will be the sole entity authorized to import foreign currencies and that cash transactions in US dollars will be prohibited, allowing only electronic transfers. The move seeks to curb...
Forex Volatility Dips Ahead of U.S. CPI, Pressuring Currency Options Prices
Global forex markets saw volatility shrink this week as traders brace for the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index release. The dollar index traded within a 0.3% band and major pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD held steady, tightening implied volatility for...
Indian Rupee Rebounds to 92.41/USD Amid US‑Iran Talks and Fading RBI Support
The Indian rupee fell to a three‑week low near 92.70 per dollar before clawing back to 92.41, a 10‑paise gain, as US‑Iran cease‑fire negotiations and the expiry of the RBI’s overnight‑position cap heightened volatility. Analysts warn that the modest rally...
Apax Digital Funds Injects $60 Million Into MillTech, Valuing It at $325 Million
Apax Digital Funds has committed $60 million to MillTech in a minority growth‑stage round that values the London‑based fintech at $325 million. The capital will fund MillTech’s North American expansion and broaden its suite of treasury‑automation tools, underscoring continued VC appetite for...
Oil Surge Triggers BOJ Hikes, Gold Targets New Highs
Domino Theory fourth iteration published on YouTube. Oil spike catalyst forces Bank of Japan rate hikes. Gold/silver retest previous all-time highs before continuing. Gold-oil peg ratio stabilizes currencies. Supply shock required for three-four digits.
Read the Calendar Before Charts: 10‑Minute Market Primer
Most traders obsess over charts 📊 but ignore what actually moves markets first. Here’s the 10-minute morning routine I’ve used for 20+ years to read the calendar, headlines, and signals from bonds, oil, and gold before any trade 🎯 https://t.co/jEK13r3Nke https://t.co/jEK13r3Nke
Indian Banks Rush to Unwind $7 Billion USD/INR NDF Trades Ahead of RBI Deadline
Indian banks are racing to unwind roughly $7 billion of USD/INR NDF arbitrage positions before the Reserve Bank of India’s April 10 deadline, which imposes a $100 million net open‑position limit in the onshore market. The forced unwind is expected to strain liquidity...
Forint Surges 1.9% to Three‑year High Post‑Orbán
#Hungary’s Forint jumped 1.9% against the Euro to a 3y high after voters ousted Orbán. https://t.co/k3NT819BFI https://t.co/UvqaDvox2t
Egypt's Inflation Surge Mirrors Excess Money Supply Growth
Egypt’s inflation rate is 15.2%/yr. Egypt's money supply is growing at 16.9%/yr. That's ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth rate of 11.1-15.1%/yr, a rate consistent w/ Egypt's 3-5%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/Daeo3HbmBW
AUD/JPY Slides to 112.50 as Chinese CPI Miss Sparks Risk‑off Mood
The AUD/JPY pair slipped to around 112.50 on Friday as China’s March CPI came in below forecasts, reviving risk‑off sentiment. The move reflects weaker Australian dollar fundamentals, heightened US‑Iran uncertainty and a yen that could benefit from a potential Bank...
Turkey Drains Securities and Gold to Fund FX Intervention
Indeed. Turkey sold a ton of fx (essentially draining its securities portfolio) and sold/ swapped gold to generate even more fx to fund its massive March intervention ... 1/x https://t.co/RsDslEBwvB
Turkey Alone Cuts Central Bank Gold; Others Remain Flat
There's endless chatter central banks are selling gold. For the 3 central banks for which we have weekly data (India, Thailand, Turkey), only Turkey has seen gold holdings fall lots (-$20 bn). Gold holdings are flat for the other two....
Ray Dalio Issues Economic “War Thesis” Showing Dollar-Debasement Against Bitcoin
Ray Dalio’s April 9 TIME essay warns of a simultaneous breakdown of monetary, domestic political, and geopolitical orders, citing the Iran conflict as a trigger. He notes the U.S. dollar has fallen roughly 27% against gold and 45% against Bitcoin...
Turkey Sells $20bn Gold as Lira Faces Depreciation Risk
If negotiations with Iran fail, Turkey will be immediately back in the firing line of global markets. It sold and swapped 128 tons of gold to bolster its FX reserves by around $20 bn in recent weeks, a sign of...
Israel's Inflation Hits Target, Money Supply On‑Track
Israel’s inflation is 2.0%/yr. That's w/i Israel’s 1%-3%/yr target. Israel’s broad money supply is growing at 8.08%/yr. That's WITHIN Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 7.7%-9.7%/yr, a rate consistent w/ Israel’s 1%-3%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/lQDMrCEK46
Five African Currencies with the Biggest Declines Amid Middle East War
The United States‑Iran escalation pushed oil prices over 50% higher in late March, sparking a wave of currency weakness across Africa. A joint African Union‑African Development Bank assessment found 29 African currencies depreciated, raising debt‑service costs and import bills. The...
USD/CAD Rebounds as US‑Iran Cease‑Fire Hopes Ease Dollar, Mixed CPI and Jobs Data Weigh
The USD/CAD pair climbed back to around 1.3833 on Friday, trimming earlier losses as optimism around a US‑Iran cease‑fire tempered dollar strength. The move came despite a 0.9% month‑over‑month jump in US CPI and a modest rebound in Canadian employment,...
Silver Surges Over 5% to $76.70 on U.S.-Iran Ceasefire, Reviving Industrial Demand
Silver jumped more than 5% to $76.70 per ounce on April 8, its highest level since March 18, after the United States and Iran agreed to a two‑week ceasefire. The truce eased energy‑driven inflation worries, softened rate‑rise expectations and highlighted...