Know What's Happening in Currencies
Know What's Happening in Currencies
Yen emerges as world’s cheapest funding currency, fueling a $435B carry‑trade
The Bank of Japan’s ultra‑loose stance has turned the yen into the cheapest source of funding globally, underpinning a massive carry‑trade that amassed roughly $435 billion between 2022 and 2024. A modest rate hike in March 2024 barely dented the trade, but markets remain wary of a sudden, aggressive tightening that could compress spreads and force borrowers to unwind yen‑denominated debt.
USD/JPY is hovering around the 153.00 level as traders await key US data. The pair was rejected at the 153.70 resistance, found support near 152.70, and settled back near 153.00. Weak Japanese Q4 GDP, which fell short of forecasts, kept the yen depressed. Meanwhile, low Asian trading volume and upcoming US Empire State Manufacturing, Fed minutes, Q4 GDP and PCE releases set the stage for the next directional move.
Wrong. Vast majority of gold buyers have been non Americans that are more worried that their own fiat currencies will lose value than they are about the USD losing value. And while foreign CBs purchased around $100B of gold...
Disappointing UK jobs data and German ZEW expectations is helping the $USD extend its gains today. Robust reception to Japan's 5yr bond sales helped ignite JGB rally and lifted the $JPY. Softer US rates and heavier equities after US holiday....
London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) and Bank of America have entered a multi‑year partnership to embed LSEG’s data, analytics and workflow solutions across BofA’s platforms. The deal gives BofA clients governed, rights‑cleared data and AI‑ready content, powered by LSEG Workspace,...
"38% of FMS investors believe that, all else equal, the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair will likely lead to higher US Treasury yields and a lower US dollar." - BofA Global Fund Manager Survey https://t.co/5m0L3ZjRg1
Transaction Network Services (TNS) has upgraded its Data Usage Optimizer (DUO) with an interactive customer portal, giving buy‑side and sell‑side firms direct, on‑demand access to cost‑analysis tools. The portal transforms raw vendor entitlement files into actionable dashboards that pinpoint unused...
Philip R. Lane praised Bulgaria’s smooth euro cash changeover, noting that euros now represent 70 percent of cash in circulation as the dual‑lev/euro period ends on 31 January 2026. The speech highlighted Bulgaria’s new seat at the ECB Governing Council, giving the country a...
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned that deepening supply‑chain interdependence now poses a security risk, prompting Europe to shift toward strategic autonomy. She outlined three policy levers—diversification, indispensability and independence—to reduce reliance on distant suppliers, especially in electronics, chemicals...
Correlation Math #Quad3 Dynamics very much in play on a Dollar Up (Gold Down) morning https://t.co/QACdjs8zu2
Olaf Sleijpen, governor of De Nederlandsche Bank, highlighted Europe’s €10 trillion of low‑yield household deposits and the need to channel them into productive capital markets through the Savings and Investment Union. He warned that fragmented insolvency regimes and national rules act...
In a speech in Nicosia, ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone presented the digital euro as a cornerstone for Europe’s payment autonomy, security and competitiveness. He emphasized the ECB’s readiness to issue retail central‑bank digital money while maintaining wholesale settlement...
Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson said he is cautiously optimistic about the U.S. economy, noting a 4.4% annualized GDP surge in Q3 2025 and a modest 2.2% growth outlook for 2026. The labor market appears balanced with unemployment hovering near 4.4%...
Kazuyuki Masu, a Bank of Japan policy board member, highlighted that U.S. auto tariffs rose to 12.5% in 2025, pressuring Japanese car exporters. He noted that the yen’s depreciation has partially offset the earnings hit for automakers. Masu added that...
Ida Wolden Bache, governor of Norges Bank, delivered her annual address on 12 February 2026, warning that geopolitical power plays and rapid AI advances are reshaping the economic landscape. She cited Mark Carney’s view that economic integration is being used...
The National Bank of Ethiopia announced sweeping foreign‑exchange reforms, letting exporters retain 100% of their foreign‑currency earnings in designated accounts and permitting banks to issue payment cards linked to those accounts. The minimum $100 requirement for foreign‑exchange savings accounts has...
A BVNK‑commissioned YouGov survey of 4,658 crypto‑savvy adults across 15 countries shows that 39% receive income in stablecoins and 27% use them for everyday payments, attracted by lower fees and faster cross‑border transfers. Respondents hold an average of $200 in...
China is accelerating the rollout of its interest‑bearing digital yuan (e‑CNY) across Southeast Asia, launching cross‑border pilots such as the China‑Laos settlement system and expanding access through commercial banks. The People’s Bank of China’s new management framework aims to turn...
Bank of America’s February survey shows investor exposure to the U.S. dollar is at its most bearish since early 2012, marking a record underweight stance. Historically, a weaker dollar has acted as a bullish tailwind for bitcoin, but since early...
The yen edged higher in thin Asian trading as the Japanese currency modestly strengthened. The latest five‑year JGB auction posted a bid‑to‑cover ratio of 3.10, the first rise since September, indicating easing election‑related stress. RBA minutes reinforced a tightening bias...
Beijing really just outsourced its reserves to its state banks, and shifted out of US custodians High return on investment tho. Tons of folks swallow the fall in reported Treasury holdings hook, line and sinker https://t.co/MKw3EJlSuR
The annualized measures of Chinese intervention over the last 3ms that capture backdoor intervention by the state banks are at all time highs in dollar terms -- over $200b a quarter/ over $800b annualized https://t.co/7vlh3tf4CX
New Zealand’s housing market has entered a sharp correction, with the REINZ house‑price index falling 0.6% month‑on‑month and 16.2% from its early‑2022 peak, equating to a 30% real‑terms loss since 2019. Mortgage rates have dropped to pre‑pandemic levels after the...
Bank of America’s FX sentiment survey shows net US dollar exposure at a record underweight, the most negative level since the survey began in January 2012. Short positions have surged to extreme levels, surpassing the lows recorded in April 2023....
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Iranian rial ranks as the WORLD'S 2ND WORST currency. The rial has depreciated by 44% against the USD over the past year. RIAL = THE GREAT DESTABILIZER. https://t.co/06OiclsaSq
Former Bank of Japan board member Seiji Adachi says the central bank is most likely to raise rates in April rather than March, waiting for clearer wage and inflation data. The BOJ’s December hike to 0.75% marked the first move...
China will eliminate tariffs on imports from 53 African nations starting May 1, 2026, expanding the preferential regime beyond the continent’s least‑developed economies. The zero‑tariff policy applies to every African country that maintains diplomatic ties with Beijing and is paired with a...
Investors received the FX option expiry list for 17 February 10 am New York cut, detailing strike levels and notional amounts across major pairs. EUR/USD options total roughly €2.6 billion at strikes 1.1900, 1.2000 and 1.2025. USD/JPY carries about $2.86 billion at 156.00 and 151.00,...
U.S. macro data are aligning for a potential soft landing, with core CPI easing to 2.5% year‑over‑year and unemployment slipping to 4.3% in January. While inflation is moving toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal, the Fed’s preferred gauge remains near...
Bundesbank president Joachim Nagel endorsed the creation of a euro‑pegged retail CBDC and euro‑denominated stablecoins, arguing they would strengthen Europe’s payment independence. He highlighted that a wholesale CBDC would allow programmable payments in central‑bank money. Nagel warned that a surge...
⚠️The US Dollar's role in global reserves is FALLING: USD share in global currency reserves dropped to ~40%, the lowest in at least 25 years. This is down from ~58% a decade ago. During the same period, gold’s share has risen from 16%...
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Venezuelan bolivar ranks as the WORLD'S WORST currency. The bolivar has depreciated by over 87% against the USD in the past year. IT’S TIME TO DUMP THE BOLIVAR AND REPLACE IT WITH THE US DOLLAR. https://t.co/dHtPzNew81
The Australian dollar held near 0.7072 against the U.S. dollar on Monday as a firmer greenback limited upside. The pair slipped from three‑year highs of 0.7147 after U.S. CPI showed inflation easing to 2.4% and unemployment edging down to 4.3%,...
Back in Brussels today for the #Eurogroup meeting, where we discussed: 🔹 euro area policy priorities for 2026 🔹 the international role of the euro https://t.co/FAa7OvZiMt
Plus500’s chief executive, chief financial officer and chief marketing officer announced the sale of 1,500,000 ordinary shares, representing roughly 2.14% of the company’s issued capital. The transaction will be executed on the secondary market through Goldman Sachs International, with Panmure...
Two things are simultaneously true -- a) China's surplus doesn't automatically flow into its fx reserves and then into Treasuries and Agencies b) China's large ongoing surplus (+ the increase in fx assets of the state banks) cautions against using the...
One of a number of potentially important macro divergences that occurred in 2H25 is shown below. For the prior 10+ years, foreign Central Banks sold USTs when the USD rose and bought USTs when the USD fell. In 2H25, foreign CB’s sold...
The Reserve Bank of India released draft norms requiring Authorised Dealer Category‑I banks to report all rupee‑denominated foreign‑exchange derivative transactions undertaken by their related parties worldwide. This follows earlier steps that mandated primary dealers and banks to disclose rupee interest‑rate...
New trading week = big clues for rates 👀 Futures up, gold down, dollar strong… what is the market betting on for Fed cuts in 2026? Fed speakers, FOMC minutes, global data & a surprise risk event ahead Watch the video before you...
India’s Unified Payments Interface (UPI) has become the world’s largest real‑time payments network, handling billions of free transactions daily. Built on a public, open‑source infrastructure managed by the National Payments Corporation of India, UPI lets banks, fintechs and merchants interoperate...
The European Central Bank announced that, from the third quarter of 2026, it will expand its EUREP euro repo facility to a global €50 billion line available to any central bank that meets AML and sanctions criteria. The repo offers euro...
We live in a beggar-thy-neighbor world. Everyone is trying to get their currencies down except for the Euro zone, another symptom of geopolitical weakness. While everyone else is managing their currencies down, the Euro is suffering from benign neglect... https://t.co/QpUo91Xcq2 https://t.co/7qByDtUMFN
In subdued foreign exchange turnover, the dollar enjoys a firmer bias against most G10 currencies amid on broadly consolidative tone. https://t.co/cyTShaySWO
Japan’s Q4 GDP expanded only 0.1% YoY, well below the 0.4% consensus, nudging the economy away from a technical recession but dampening reflation hopes. The weak data erased much of the yen’s recent 3% rally sparked by the new government’s...
Note that there are 1.3 bln euro options at $1.1850 that expire today. The $euro just tested the strike and it held.
Markets closed today… which means PERFECT time to prepare and talk about the week ahead The traders who win this week are already preparing today. ⏰ Join us LIVE at 8:45AM ET Learn. Prepare. Trade. Because the market rewards the prepared 👇 https://t.co/m6ZWYcjupv
In Part II, the podcast examines how the ongoing "Great Compression" of money‑market rates is pushing the Federal Reserve to replace its traditional overnight Fed Funds target with a new benchmark. It explains that overnight Fed Funds volume has collapsed...
US and China's mainland markets are closed today. The FX market is calmer and most G10 currencies are little changed. $JPY is the notable exception as disappointing data weighs on it. See https://t.co/cyTShaySWO https://t.co/ZB9uMP7xUC
What's on tap for the week ahead? An increased frequency of volatility meets a holiday liquidity gap, while a run of event risk weighs in on the steadily deflating US premium. https://t.co/17IH2lFIn0 https://t.co/AlKhX25xxn
In this episode, ANZ Research analysts discuss the recent surge in the Australian dollar following the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) interest rate hike. They explain how the tighter monetary policy has strengthened the currency, the impact on inflation and...
**Reminder: Markets Closed tomorrow in observance of Presidents Day Weekly Technical Outlook Webinar will be on Tuesday at 8:30am ET Interactive Session: https://t.co/EpyXNC6zVR Live Stream on YouTube: https://t.co/iiptWpNEz9
