Today's Currencies Pulse
Rupee flat on hopes West Asia truce will hold
The Indian rupee held steady as markets priced in hopes that a West Asia truce would hold, hovering near ₹95.78 per dollar after slipping 8 paise in early trade. Traders kept a close eye on geopolitical developments while the currency remained largely unchanged.
U.S. Extends Russian Oil Waiver as Central Bank Reprices Ruble, Dollar, Euro and Yuan
The U.S. Treasury renewed a license allowing purchases of Russian oil cargoes through May 16, easing global supply concerns. At the same time, the Russian central bank cut the official dollar and yuan rates and lifted the euro rate, pushing the ruble lower. The coordinated moves highlight the tug‑of‑war between sanctions policy and Russia’s currency stability efforts.
Hormuz Reopening Sends Brent Below $90, Triggers Dollar’s Third Weekly Loss and Pounds Weakening
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz drove Brent crude futures 10% lower to under $90 a barrel, sparking the U.S. dollar’s third consecutive weekly decline and a 1.2% slide in the pound. Traders see the move as a catalyst...
China Q1 GDP Hits 5% YoY, DBS Trims 2026 Rate‑Cut Forecast to 10 Bps
DBS Group Research cut its 2026 one‑year LPR easing forecast to a 10‑basis‑point cut after China reported a 5.0% year‑on‑year GDP expansion in Q1 2026. The stronger‑than‑expected growth, driven by export demand, reduces urgency for aggressive monetary easing, a shift...
Ghana Braces for Oil‑Price Shock Amid Stronger Macro Foundations
Ghana's economy confronts a fresh oil‑price shock from Middle East tensions, but enters the storm with a 14% policy rate, Treasury bills under 5%, inflation below target and higher reserves. Analysts say the stronger macro backdrop could blunt the impact...
Kevin Warsh Faces Senate Hearing as Trump Nominates Potential Fed Chair
President Donald Trump has nominated former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell. Warsh will appear before the Senate Banking Committee, where lawmakers will weigh his likely preference for lower interest rates against an inflationary backdrop shaped by...
Newsquawk Week Ahead Highlights (and Week in Review)- 20-24th April
The week’s headline is the looming expiry of the US‑Iran ceasefire on April 22, heightening geopolitical risk for energy markets. China’s People’s Bank is expected to leave its benchmark Loan Prime Rates unchanged at 3.00% (1‑year) and 3.50% (5‑year) amid Middle‑East...
More Central Bank Independence?
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is urging a push for stronger central‑bank independence, arguing it will shield the institution’s price‑stability mandate from political interference. In a recent discussion, economist Steve Keen challenged this narrative, describing the prevailing monetary‑policy framework...
Rupee Depreciation Forces Indian Firms to Adopt Yuan Payments, Boost Local Sourcing
Indian manufacturers are increasingly paying Chinese suppliers in yuan to offset the rupee’s 4‑5% slide against the dollar. Companies such as PG Electroplast and Super Plastronics have begun yuan‑based settlements, while Godrej Appliances is exploring the option. Retailer Lifestyle has...
Asian Currencies Squeezed by US‑Israel‑Iran Conflict as Oil and LNG Prices Spike
The escalation of the US‑Israel‑Iran conflict has pushed oil to $110‑$116 a barrel and LNG up 143%, triggering inflation, industrial slowdown and sharp foreign‑exchange pressure across Asia. Central banks in Japan, South Korea and the Philippines face tighter conditions as...
ECB Moves Away From April Hike as Peace Talks Progress: Overview
European Central Bank officials are reassessing an April rate hike as US‑Iran peace talks ease oil price pressures and bring inflation in the euro zone above 4%. President Christine Lagarde emphasized a data‑dependent approach, while the Governing Council remains divided,...
Emerging Market Outflows Near COVID Shock Levels
The past 7 weeks of conflict have seen capital outflows from EM that were almost as bad as during COVID, which was a massive shock. I'll talk about this and where we are on the Strait of Hormuz (is it...
IMF Underestimates Growth After Major Economic Shocks
IMF growth forecasts are much too pessimistic when they come right after big shocks. It was that way in Apr. 2025 after "Liberation Day" and it's like that again now. I talked about this on this morning's live stream that...
Week Ahead: Dollar and Stocks Due for Corrections?
US equity markets pushed to fresh record highs as progress in US‑Iran talks and a tentative cease‑fire between Israel and Lebanon lifted risk appetite. Meanwhile, WTI crude slipped 7.6% last week, briefly breaching $79 a barrel after a steep March...
Brazil's High Money Growth Fuels Inflation Above Target
Brazil's March inflation is 4.14%/yr. That's ABOVE its 3%/yr inflation target. Brazil’s M4 is growing at 9.4%/yr. That is ABOVE Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of 7.1%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its 3%/yr inflation target. INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY....
US Rally and Dollar Slide Likely to Reverse Next Week
New weekly commentary: US stock rally looks overdone in the near-term and so does the dollar's sell-off. Both could correct next week. News from Middle East may not be as unambiguous as social media posts suggest....
How the Iran War Could Speed the Decline of the US Dollar
The article examines how the Iran war and broader geopolitical shocks could accelerate the gradual erosion of the U.S. dollar’s share of global reserves. While the dollar still commands 56% of foreign‑exchange holdings, its dominance has slipped from a peak...
Emerging Markets' Nonfinancial FX Debt Stays Under 20% GDP
What is remarkable is that the nonfinancial sector foreign exchange debt is below 20% of GDP and around 10% of total debt, down from the levels of around 40-60% for most of the emerging markets. https://t.co/p334pC8XRt
Elliott Wave Analysis of EURUSD – April 20th, 2026
EUR/USD rose above 1.18 on April 20, 2026, marking its first breach since February. The move is driven by market optimism that the Iran‑Israel conflict may be winding down. Elliott Wave analysts interpret the price action as the start of...
MacParity, January 2026
Menzie Chinn’s January 2026 MacParity note applies the Big‑Mac Index to the United States’ top trading partners, regressing log‑relative burger prices against log‑relative per‑capita income. The analysis treats the Euro Area as a proxy for Germany and Ireland due to data gaps....
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly Says U.S. Economy May Need a Different Policy Path
San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly told reporters that the U.S. economy’s mixed signals could demand a policy stance different from the consensus among Fed officials. Her remarks highlight growing debate within the central bank about the appropriate path...
RBI's Special Credit Line Pushes Indian Rupee Near 92.70 per Dollar
The Reserve Bank of India opened a special credit line for state‑run oil refiners on Thursday, prompting the rupee to rise to around 92.70 per U.S. dollar. The move curbs spot dollar purchases by oil importers and supports a broader...
Mideast Diplomatic Optimism Trims Indian Rupee Options Volatility and Hedging Costs
Indian rupee options saw implied volatility and hedging premiums fall after renewed diplomatic hopes in the Middle East bolstered the Reserve Bank of India's recent rupee‑support measures. The easing reflects reduced market anxiety and cheaper protection for exporters and importers.
Yen Slides to 159.35 per Dollar as Middle East Tension Fuels FX Intervention Warnings
The Japanese yen slipped to roughly 159.35 per U.S. dollar on Friday, extending a three‑day rally driven by uncertainty in the Middle East. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama warned that authorities stand ready for "bold" foreign‑exchange action, signaling a possible intervention...
What Makes a Forex Trading Platform Good for Daily Trading?
The article outlines a practical framework for retail day traders to evaluate forex platforms, focusing on five core features: ultra‑fast order execution, transparent cost structures, advanced charting, robust security, and real‑time market data. It explains how latency above 50 ms, hidden...
Commerzbank Says ECB Rate‑Hike Expectations Over‑Priced, Forecasts Yield Curve Reset
Commerzbank analysts warned that the market is over‑pricing European Central Bank rate hikes for 2026, citing modest forward pricing and weaker energy price assumptions. They see room for the curve to bull‑steepen, which could lower discount rates for Euro‑zone stocks...
EUR/GBP Climbs to 0.8715 as Eurozone Inflation Outpaces BoE Caution
The euro edged up against the pound to 0.8715, up 0.06% on the day, as revised Eurozone inflation data bolstered expectations of a tighter ECB while the Bank of England remained guarded. Traders priced in a near‑term ECB hike but...
Dollar Drops on Middle East Peace Optimism
The dollar index slipped to a seven‑week low as optimism over a potential US‑Iran peace deal eased safe‑haven demand. An 11% plunge in WTI crude lowered inflation expectations, adding dovish pressure on the Federal Reserve. Fed’s San Francisco President Mary...
Global FX: Cease-Fire, the Dollar, DM/EM FX Impact, IMF Round-Up
In this episode, J.P. Morgan FX strategists discuss the market reaction to the recent cease‑fire announcement, noting that high‑yielding currencies like Brazil, the Australian dollar and emerging‑market (EM) FX have rebounded, while low‑yielders such as the Chinese yuan have lagged....
3 Numbers of Oil & JPY
Ashraf Laidi’s latest market note ties three oil‑related numbers to a specific date and uses them to justify a short USD/JPY position, targeting the 157.70 level. The trade, still valid for readers who receive the note late, reflects his inter‑market view...
Fed's Waller: Job Market Break Even Rate Now Likely Around Zero
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said the job‑market break‑even rate – the unemployment level that would allow the Fed to keep policy unchanged – is now effectively zero. He warned that a prolonged Middle East conflict could push inflation higher...
India Pays for Iranian Oil in Yuan, Bypassing Dollars
🇮🇳🇮🇷 India is settling payments for Iranian oil in Chinese yuan instead of US dollars.🤯
Next Week’s Menu: April 18-24, 2026
The week of April 18‑24, 2026 is packed with macro‑economic events, including monetary‑policy reviews in China, Indonesia, Turkey, Russia, Kazakhstan and the Philippines, and a Senate Banking Committee hearing for Kevin Warsh’s Fed chair nomination. Bulgaria’s National Assembly election and the conclusion...
Rate‑cut Odds Surge to 50% After Recent Events
Just a couple weeks the probability of another FOMC rate cut this year was down to less than 10% With some positive macro and geopolitical events over the past two weeks including the last 48 hours... the probability of another FOMC...
Iranian Rial Gains 11% Amid US‑Israeli Conflict, Media Silent
Since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran, the Iranian rial has appreciated by 11% against the USD. THE WESTERN MEDIA CONTINUES TO REMAIN SILENT ON THIS INCONVENIENT FACT. https://t.co/WOududM6s7
Azerbaijan Central Bank Holds USD/Manat at 1.7 Amid Regional FX Turbulence
The Central Bank of Azerbaijan announced on April 17 that the official U.S. dollar to manat rate remains fixed at 1.7 manat. The decision, made alongside unchanged euro, lira and ruble rates, provides a rare data point of stability in...
Kazaks Cautions: ECB May Not Raise Rates Soon
Kazaks warns against assuming the ECB’s next move will be a hike https://t.co/D88xszH8pz via @jrandow https://t.co/wDW8qFxiYT
Emerging Market Outflows Near COVID Levels, Live Stream Tomorrow
I'm doing a live stream tomorrow morning at 9:30 am (ET) with a summary of all the chatter around this week's IMF/WB Spring meetings, including a discussion of this chart, which shows that EM outflows over the past month were...
10 AI Forex Trading Bots in 2026: Features and Use Cases for Getting Started
The 2026 guide surveys ten AI‑driven forex trading bots, ranging from beginner‑friendly platforms like MoneyFlare to advanced research environments such as QuantConnect. Each bot is evaluated on onboarding simplicity, automation depth, coding requirements, and compatibility with major platforms like MT4,...
Gold/Silver Ratio Boosts USD Confidence and Profit Potential
Applying the Gold/Silver ratio can be used for showing off..but also making money in bolstering confidence in USD-mkts & metals #forex $FXE $UUP $TNX $XAUUSD #XAGUSD https://t.co/sAHfIgKC1u
Euro Slides as Hike Forecasts Drop to 1.6%
FWIW, intra-day euro off its highs. Not major moves, but it appears there was an overshooting on the Iran news. Also now only 1.6 hikes expected by year-end in the eurozone, down from 2.6 on Monday src: BBG https://t.co/BogH7m2BKY
France's Finance Minister Calls for More Euro Stablecoins in Sign of Government Policy Shift
French Finance Minister Roland Lescure urged the EU banking sector to expand euro‑stablecoins and explore tokenized deposits, backing the Qivalis consortium’s plan to launch a euro‑pegged stablecoin in late 2026. He criticized the current low volume of euro‑stablecoins compared with...
You Can Simultaneously Long and Short the Same Market
Going long & short the same mkt is neither a myth nor a cop-out. #USDJPY #forex https://t.co/nltrE65m4U
Peace Hopes Boost Turkey's Gold Reserves Amid Costly Peg
Prospects of peace are helping Turkey. The central bank's gold holdings rose for the first time in data for the week of April 10. Gold holdings are now down 123 tons since the start of the conflict, which is worth...
Daily Spotlight: Dollar Surges Amid Iran War
The U.S. dollar has surged 5% since the outbreak of hostilities in Iran, pushing it near cycle highs and 19% above its 20‑year average. After a modest 5% decline in 2025, the greenback rebounded as investors fled to safety amid...
Stablecoin Statecraft Mirrors BCCI’s Controversial Model
Putting the statecraft into stablecoin statecraft in a way that makes you wonder if USD1 is just the second coming of BCCI?
World Bank Mulls $2B Loan as Argentina Eyes Dollarization
#ArgentinaWatch 🇦🇷: The World Bank is considering loaning Argentina up to $2B to help refinance its debt. Stuck with junk-rated bonds, Argentina is leaning on multilateral development banks for finance. IT'S TIME FOR THE WORLD’S BIGGEST DEADBEAT TO DITCH THE PESO AND...
G10 FX Talking: Time to Back the Hawkish Central Banks
ING’s latest G10 FX outlook highlights a shift toward real‑rate driven moves as hawkish central banks gain traction. The firm expects the euro to climb to 1.20 against the dollar by year‑end, while the Fed is projected to cut rates...
Latam FX Talking: The Brazilian Real Has Fared Well From the Crisis
ING’s Latin America FX outlook sees the Brazilian real emerging as the region’s top high‑yield currency in 2026. The firm projects USD/BRL falling to 4.50 within a year, translating to an implied 13% annual yield and a real‑effective exchange rate...
FX Talking: Forecast Table
ING’s April 2026 “FX Talking: Forecast Table” delivers a forward‑looking outlook on major currency pairs, outlining expected appreciation and depreciation trends through the next twelve months. The table presents baseline, upside and downside scenarios, integrating macro‑economic variables, commodity price movements and...
Aussie Dollar Hits Highest Yen Level Since 1990, Signaling Risk‑On
BofA Hartnett: nothing says risk-on more than Aussie dollar (cyclical FX) at highest levels vs. Japanese yen (funding FX) since Oct'90 https://t.co/5Xbt4PwZjW