Know What's Happening in Currencies
Know What's Happening in Currencies
Yen emerges as world’s cheapest funding currency, fueling a $435B carry‑trade
The Bank of Japan’s ultra‑loose stance has turned the yen into the cheapest source of funding globally, underpinning a massive carry‑trade that amassed roughly $435 billion between 2022 and 2024. A modest rate hike in March 2024 barely dented the trade, but markets remain wary of a sudden, aggressive tightening that could compress spreads and force borrowers to unwind yen‑denominated debt.
Dubai‑based offshore CFD broker Zarvista Capital Markets has appointed Mohammed El Alaoui Essosse as its new chief executive officer, succeeding founder Jamsheer Thazhe Veettil. Essosse, who previously served as Head of Business Development and Director of Africa, has been with the firm for three years and brings senior sales experience from AUS Global and INFINOX in the MENA region. The change follows the departure of COO Jean‑Raphael Nahas last year and underscores a strategic push to expand in MENA and Asian markets. Zarvista operates from Dubai and Cyprus while being registered in Mwali and Mauritius.
Emerging markets portfolio manager Juan Torres on: * Where the Real Emerging Markets Value Is * If US Stocks Fall, What Happens to Emerging Markets? * Should You Hedge Emerging Markets Currency Risk? * Is Buying the Dip Still Smart? * Emerging Markets Outlook: Cheap or...
Need to know where we are relative forecast-based policy setting. Neutral rate est at what it was a little less than 3%. The push to make policy on forecasts is something the administration’s nominee to replace Chair Powell has argued....
Chancellor Rachel Reeves will deliver the UK Spring Statement on 3 March 2026, presenting the latest Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) economic forecasts. The OBR outlook on growth, inflation, unemployment and public finances will be published after the speech via the...
Potential pivot by @federalreserve Gov Chris Walller - IF the next retail sales & labor data continue to show signs of further improvement, like we saw in Jan, then would support a pause in rate cuts after dissenting in Jan....
Fed governor Chris Waller conditions his support for a March cut (or hold) on the February payroll data due for release on March 6. “As things stand today, I rate these two possible outcomes as close to a coin flip.” https://t.co/8ompstwgY9 If...
The OECD’s latest cross‑country data for Q3 2025 shows Australia posting the smallest rise in real per‑capita household disposable income among major English‑speaking economies over the past ten years. While other nations such as the United States, United Kingdom and Canada...
Former ECBer, Vitor Constancio, thinks the dollar debasement narrative is overstated. He says, yes, Trumpian policies are challenging the international monetary order, but they are not, as yet, leading it to crumble: "the dollar will continue to dominate for decades ahead". His...
Indeed; an important point -- tho the dollar's reserve currency role is often taken to mean its role in private payments not just in official reserves. More importantly, there is a lot quasi-reserves floating around now --...
The dollar’s recent slide is viewed as a cyclical correction rather than a structural collapse, with the real trade‑weighted index still well above its long‑term average. Hedging activity is rising, with buy‑side hedge ratios projected to reach roughly 74% by...
The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) rose from 2.8%/yr in November to 2.9%/yr in December. That’s ABOVE the FED’s inflation target of 2%/yr. INFLATION = THE GENIE THE FED JUST CAN'T PUT BACK IN THE BOTTLE. https://t.co/bTd3rr7JXl
Chile basks in the afterglow of the free-market reforms put in place by Pinochet’s Chicago Boys (1973–1990). Argentina struggles under the weight of the Argentine peso. CHILE LEAVES ARGENTINA IN THE DUST. https://t.co/UyNgQY2kIL
BTCC has launched BTCC TradFi, a cross‑market platform that lets users trade forex, commodities, indices and stocks using USDT as margin and settlement currency. The service builds on the exchange’s tokenized precious‑metal success, which generated $5.72 billion in 2025 trading volume...
#DXY net longs make it to net longs territory for now https://t.co/HWXbhMOOqi #forex $FXE $UUP https://t.co/Emg2FxVwkD
Big moves in currencies are made one small move at a time. The fact that USD didn't rally substantially after the SCOTUS decision is remarkable. After all, it fell a lot when reciprocal tariffs hit, so the fact that it...
The Reserve Bank of India relies on non‑deliverable forwards (NDFs) to support the rupee without draining reserves, but $7 billion of contracts are set to mature this week, creating rollover pressure. RBI’s total forward book stands at $62.3 billion, a size that...
March cut may be a coin flip for Waller based on Feb payrolls, but it's not for the FOMC. Cut odds close to zero
What are the hottest EMs in 2026? There are a handful of EMs that have monthly BoP flows. Those show a big rise in foreign investor inflows for Colombia (red), Chile (blue) and South Korea (purple). India (green) and Mexico...
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party secured a landslide victory in the February 8 snap election, propelling Japanese equities to record highs. The political certainty sparked a yen rally, moving the currency from around ¥157 per dollar to the ¥152...
Back to the 1970s again. History, Trump, the law and the balance of payments. Can the bofp be in deficit? Did a chartbook in response to the fascinating exchange between @Brad_Setser & @PhilWMagness https://t.co/ryYY7Z9OBm https://t.co/zySJwiEZN7
When All is Said and Done in FX, Little has been Done: The US dollar was fairly resilient in the face of the softer than expected Q4 GDP reading and the Supreme Court’s tariff decision. However, it came under pressure...
Asian currency markets saw the U.S. dollar dominate trade as a fresh tariff dispute intensified cross‑border transactions. The pressure translated into a sharp decline in USD/JPY, with the yen appreciating against the greenback. Trading was further constrained by a public...
Some volatility, yes, but net-net the $USD is little changed from the it settled at the end of last week. It was initially marked lower but is nearly flat now. Japan mkt were closed for a holiday, while a...
The People’s Bank of China left its benchmark Loan Prime Rates unchanged at 3.00% for the one‑year and 3.50% for the five‑year tenor, marking the ninth straight month of stability. Market participants had widely priced in a hold, reflecting the...
The episode surveys a week of global economic turbulence, highlighting AI’s expanding role in the Australian job market, rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East, and mixed central‑bank signals across major economies. Dr. Blair Chapman notes a surge in AI‑specific...
In 2024 and 2025, Mexico grew at an annualized pace of 0.8%, even as the US grew at an annualized pace of 2.3% in those two years. Mexico's growth stagnation, which - outside of COVID - has now lasted since...
For as long as I can remember, Argentina has tried to become credible and stable by pegging the Peso to the Dollar. The success rate of this strategy - in all the years it's been tried - is exactly ZERO....
iFOREX debuted on the London Stock Exchange with a prospectus showing $49 million in revenue and $4 million EBITDA, marking a significant milestone for the 20‑year‑old FX broker. Senior Plus500 executives sold more than $90 million of company stock, entering a 365‑day lock‑up...
→ Trends exist only 15-20% of the time → You never know how far a breakout will go → Your risk is almost never clearly defined Turn trading flips the script: → Enter at the pivot → Risk is small and measurable...
The Dollar used to rally on strong data, but that's no longer true. Recent examples are strong payrolls on Feb 11 or hot core PCE inflation on Feb 20. We're in the early stages of a regime change for USD,...
Bitcoin experienced a sharp sell‑off after the yen surged, prompting margin and VAR cuts across multi‑asset risk books. Japanese FX officials’ urgent language on February 12 signaled heightened intervention risk, accelerating the unwind of yen‑funded carry trades. The unwind cascaded...
I had a good discussion with @MargBrennan of @FaceTheNation about the economy, trade, central bank independence and other topics. https://t.co/7S39jwcldt
The last truly independent central bank Governor in Turkey was fired in March 2021. That sent the Lira into a devaluation spiral from which it's never recovered. It doesn't matter who the economic team is now. If Erdogan did this...
Polymarket’s prediction market shows a noticeable rise in the odds of a U.S. strike on Iran, signaling heightened geopolitical risk. At the same time, gold remains unusually flat, showing little enthusiasm despite the tension, while oil prices are edging higher....
🔥 New Video: Turn Trading Beats Trend Trading Every Time 🚨 85% of traders are doing THIS wrong They say they love trend trading Here’s the truth👇 📉 Trends only exist 15–20% of the time The rest? Chop. Noise. Fakeouts. Flying blind on risk @Fxflow...
Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Drops to Pivotal Support – Breakdown Risk Builds https://t.co/geZ18ZVnup $EURUSD Monthly & Weekly Charts https://t.co/jYZ8uLmgEG
The Iranian rial has collapsed in 2026, spurring hyperinflation and prompting middle‑class savers to flee the banking system. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have attracted billions of dollars, echoing Lebanon’s 2019‑2021 crisis where crypto became a financial lifeline. On‑chain data shows...
1. Chart in original post shows the weaker USD (DXY) gets, the more flows will move into USD assets...& DXY had biggest drop in 52 yrs in 1H25👇 2. So as long as DXY keeps falling 10-15%/yr, foreign** inflows will grow **37%...
The week ahead centers on Nvidia’s February 25 earnings, where analysts expect revenue to surpass $65 billion and margins to climb above 74 percent, reinforcing its AI leadership. Australian CPI data will test the Reserve Bank’s willingness to raise rates again after...
Japan’s real wages are set to move into positive territory in January 2026 after a year of decline, driven by a slowdown in CPI inflation to 2% YoY and a suite of government price‑relief measures. Tax cuts on gasoline, tuition‑free...
⚠️US Dollar weakness is historically BAD news for US stocks: AVERAGE ANNUALIZED RETURNS during the 5 major Dollar bear markets since 1967: S&P 500: +6.4% annualized Gold: +43.1% annualized EM stocks: +23.7% annualized👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-us-stock-market-has-peaked
For what its worth, the reason the term “Global Reserve Asset” has gained traction over last 5 yrs is bc those who previously said USD would lose “Global Reserve Currency” status had to pivot after getting everything they ever dreamed...
The U.S. Supreme Court invalidated President Trump's emergency authority to impose broad tariffs, prompting a modest sell‑off in the dollar despite its recent resilience. Dollar Index fell to just above 97.5, yet key technical levels held, while the euro recovered...
In my interview with @WSJ, I spoke about Europe’s economy, the importance of central bank independence, AI and more. Read my interview https://t.co/LEbflpU9tB https://t.co/KlfELnA179
The Dollar yesterday fell back to its recent lows against EM, even though core PCE inflation came in hot and the SCOTUS decision should have lifted it. Regime change for USD is upon us. Things that ordinarily lift the Dollar...
In this episode, Alasdair Macleod and Andrew Maguire of Kinesis dissect the ongoing silver squeeze, highlighting how massive short positions in China and robust physical demand are forcing paper markets to the brink. They explain the eastward shift of price...
Oh boy. “DOLLAR in DECLINE” “The U.S. currency has lost its dominance. What investors should do now.”
Week Ahead: Does the Dollar Still Have Legs After the Tariff Ruling?: The Supreme Court struck down President Trump's use of emergency powers to impose widespread tariffs. The court did not rule on refunds. Trump quickly announced a 10% across-the-board…...
Outside of an occasional shock like around Liberation Day, it is not clear that the tariffs had much impact in the FX market. $USD held up fairly well in the face of the disappointing GDP and tariff ruling. What's...
Japan’s inflation rate comes in at 1.53%/yr in January, BELOW its 2%/yr target. JP’s money supply (M2) is growing at 1.56%/yr, WELL BELOW Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of~6.07%/yr, a rate consistent with JP’s 2%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY...
