Today's Currencies Pulse
RBI logs record $53.13B net dollar sale as rupee slides 9.5%
The Reserve Bank of India recorded its largest net dollar sale in at least 15 years, disposing of $53.13 billion in FY 26, more than double the $25.52 billion sold in FY 23. The rupee weakened about 9.5% against the dollar, prompting heavy RBI intervention in both spot and forward markets, where forward‑market net sales hit a historic negative $103.06 billion in March 2026.
Iraqi Dinar Surges to 154,500 per Dollar Amid Political Deadlock
The Iraqi dinar rose sharply to 154,500 per U.S. dollar on Tuesday after the Coordination Framework failed to name a prime‑minister nominee. The move reverses a post‑ceasefire rally and underscores how political uncertainty is pressuring Iraq’s emerging‑market currency.
USD Floor and Oil Stabilization Signal Fed Trouble
The greenback found a short-term floor at $97.90 just as oil stopped going down. That's not a coincidence. Both are telling you the Fed is screwed. EM and credit feel it first because they fund in dollars and import the oil.
ECB Likely to Hold Rates Next Week, Keeps June Hike Option Alive
ING THINK analysts forecast that the European Central Bank will leave policy rates unchanged at its April meeting, while preserving the option to raise rates in June. The stance reflects lingering inflation risks and is set to shape euro‑zone sovereign...
Thunes Launches Real‑time NZD Payments, Expanding Direct Global Network in New Zealand
Thunes has rolled out real‑time NZD payments to New Zealand, allowing members of its Direct Global Network to move money instantly to local bank accounts. The move deepens the Singapore‑based fintech’s Asia‑Pacific footprint as the region’s digital‑trade volume is projected to...
Lower Rates Needed to Manage Unmanageable Federal Debt
Hearing Kevin Warsh talk about Fed independence, and watching hard assets sell off on that, feels a lot like the hype around DOGE. Great in theory, but ultimately unrealistic. The reality is that government debt has reached a scale that no brilliant...
GCC Nations Turn Net Drains on Offshore Dollar Liquidity
The UAE's request for a swap line -- presumably after a big fall in the central bank's $285b in reserves in March/ early April -- confirms that the GCC countries are now a net drain on offshore dollar liquidity. The Saudis...
Warsh Signals Evolution, Not Revolution at the Fed
Kevin Warsh’s Senate testimony highlighted a push for gradual, not radical, changes at the Federal Reserve. He reiterated long‑held criticism of the Fed’s oversized balance sheet and advocated slow, predictable reductions while relying on interest‑rate tools rather than balance‑sheet adjustments....
Wait for Confirmation, Avoid Impulse Trade Regret
Impulse Trade = Instant Regret 🚨 You entered too early? That’s why you lost. Wait for confirmation. #SmartMoney #ForexTrading #ICTConcepts #TradingTips #reels
BOJ to Skip Rate Hike Next Week; June Seen as Next Window
The Bank of Japan is expected to keep its policy rate at 0.75% during the April 28 meeting, postponing any further tightening. Governor Kazuo Ueda cited recent disruptions to Middle‑East oil supplies as a key factor, seeking more data on...
Ringgit Set to Retest 3.88/USD as Foreign Inflows Surge
Economists and Bank Muamalat chief economist project Malaysia's ringgit will retest the 3.88 per US dollar level, driven by a 2.8% year‑to‑date appreciation and net foreign inflows of roughly $420 million this year. The outlook hinges on solid domestic growth, stable...
RBI Governor Warns Global Supply Shocks Could Trigger Second‑Round Inflation in India
Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra warned that ongoing West Asia conflict could turn first‑round price shocks into entrenched second‑round inflation, stressing the need for data‑driven monetary policy and careful forex interventions. The central bank, holding $710 billion in reserves,...
Warsh Signals Normalcy, Yet Bias May Influence 2026 Rate Cuts
Warsh is presenting himself as if he intends to be a normal Fed Chair. Either he intends to put his thumb on the scale despite what he is saying in Congress or the President is going to be disappointed. Dollar...
RBI Eases Rupee NDF Curbs but Banks Stay Cautious as NDC Trading Resumes
The Reserve Bank of India has partially withdrawn its April 1 curbs on rupee non‑deliverable forwards, permitting cancellation, rollover and back‑to‑back trades while keeping a $100 million net‑open position cap. Despite the easing, major banks remain hesitant to offer NDF contracts,...
Taking Bank of Korea Helm, Crisis-Era Veteran Pursues Ambitious Won Overhaul
Shin Hyun Song, a veteran economist who warned of the 2008 crisis, has taken over as governor of the Bank of Korea. He unveiled an ambitious plan to internationalize the won, including round‑the‑clock FX trading and an offshore settlement system,...
Peter Kažimír: Transformation, Integration and the New Frontier of Monetary Policy
Peter Kažimír outlined Slovakia’s three‑decade journey from a post‑communist economy to a stable euro‑zone member. He emphasized that macro‑economic stability, openness, and a credible central bank were prerequisites for growth, and that banking reforms were critical to transmit policy. The...
Israeli Shekel Breaks NIS 3 per Dollar, Hitting 30‑Year Low
The Israeli shekel slipped below 3 new shekels per U.S. dollar, its lowest level since 1995 and a three‑decade trough. Analysts attribute the move to a surge of foreign‑currency inflows, including a $32 billion sale of cybersecurity firm Wiz to Google,...
FX Daily: Dollar to Weigh up Warsh
Kevin Warsh’s Senate confirmation hearing is set to dominate U.S. monetary policy headlines, with markets expecting a dovish stance on rates and a hawkish approach to the Fed’s balance‑sheet reduction. A potential Iranian delegation to peace talks in Pakistan is...
Geopolitics and FX Cloud Treasury Outlook - Weekly Roundup: 21 April
Treasury teams are feeling heightened pressure from geopolitics, with 88% of respondents expressing moderate to high concern, prompting a defensive shift toward money‑market funds and early AI adoption for cash forecasting. European banks see digital assets as a modest threat,...
FX Option Expiries for 21 April 10am New York Cut
InvestingLive notes two FX option expiries on 21 April at 10 a.m. New York time, both for EUR/USD at the 1.1760 and 1.1800 strikes. The pair is currently confined between a 200‑hour moving‑average floor around 1.1752 and a daily ceiling at 1.1800, forming...
InvestingLive Asia-Pacific FX News Wrap: Vance Heading to Pakistan for Talks with Iran
Vice President JD Vance is set to travel to Islamabad for a cease‑fire negotiation with Iran after the Supreme Leader approved a delegation, despite Tehran’s public rejection of talks under pressure. The diplomatic effort aims to avert escalation in the...
Westpac Sees US Dollar Weakening as Markets Look Through Energy Shock and Tensions
Westpac argues that despite heightened Middle East tensions, the U.S. dollar is losing steam as markets price a gradual normalization of shipping flows and improving global trade. The bank forecasts the U.S. Dollar Index falling from the high‑90s to the...
Recapping - NZD Rises After CPI Beat as Markets Price Higher Odds of May RBNZ Rate Hike
New Zealand’s consumer price index rose 0.9% in the March quarter, leaving annual inflation at 3.1%—still above the Reserve Bank’s 1‑3% target. The surprise pushed the market’s implied probability of a May RBNZ rate hike to roughly 45%, up from...
PH Dollar Deficit Swells to over One-Year High on Middle East Crisis
In March 2026 the Philippines recorded a $2.6 billion balance‑of‑payments deficit, the widest since January 2025, as soaring energy prices tied to the Middle‑East crisis forced higher dollar outflows. The first‑quarter gap widened to $5.3 billion, 79% higher than a year earlier,...
ECB Stalls Rate Decision as Iran War Fuels Dual Uncertainty
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Governing Council member Álvaro Santos Pereira warned that the Iran war creates a "double uncertainty" around shock duration and inflation pass‑through. They urged a data‑driven approach, signaling likely rate‑hold at the upcoming meeting...
India's Sensex Nudges up 27 Points to 78,520 as Nifty Steadies Above 24,300
India's benchmark indices closed marginally higher on Monday, with the BSE Sensex gaining 26.76 points to 78,520.30 and the NSE Nifty 50 inching up 11.30 points to 24,364.85. The modest rally came despite heightened geopolitical risk from US‑Iran tensions and...
USD Pairs Set for Bullish Swing Trades Tomorrow
📊 Tomorrow’s Plan – USD Pairs 🚀 Guys, tomorrow we will focus on USD pairs for swing opportunities 📈 🔎 Current Outlook: ➡️ USD pairs are showing bullish potential ➡️ USDCAD (D1) is now on our watchlist 👀 🎯 Our Plan: • Wait for price to...
Fed's Shift: From Late Powell to Sock Puppet Warsh
It seems like the Fed is going from “Too Late” Powell to “Sock Puppet” Warsh. Will “Sock Puppet” Stick?
Fed's Waller Signals Rate Hold as Inflation and Labor Risks Loom
Fed Governor Christopher Waller told an audience in Alabama that the Federal Reserve is likely to keep its benchmark rate unchanged in the 3.5%‑3.75% range. He warned that persistent inflation and a slowing labor market make aggressive policy moves risky,...
New BOK Governor Emphasizes Inflation Control and Financial Stability
Interesting passage from @HyunSongShin's first speech as governor of the Bank of Korea: https://t.co/usPzjCjld0 https://t.co/DePG6zH4MH
Warsh May Trim Fed Press Conferences if Confirmed
Fed Chair nominee Warsh hints he would reduce the number of press conferences if confirmed (Powell currently does one after every rate decision)
AUD/USD Climbs to 0.7176 as Weaker Dollar and RBA Tightening Outlook Fuel Bullish Bias
The Australian dollar gained against the US dollar, trading around 0.7176, as the US Dollar Index slipped near 98.00 and market participants priced in a possible tightening cycle from the Reserve Bank of Australia. The move reflects a blend of...
Central Banks Must Act Differently in Crises, Leveraging Credibility
Warsh: central banks need to act differently in crisis versus other times. Those other times is when the credibility is built for the assertiveness during crises when they should be given the benefit of the doubt.
AUD/USD Jumps 5%, Bulls Eye Critical Resistance
Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Surges 5%- Bulls Face Key Resistance Test https://t.co/HttJernfOE $AUDUSD Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/0TtICC6wAu
Treasury Sec Paulson: US Needs Emergency "Break The Glass Plan" Ready To Deal With Dumped Treasuries & Spiking Interest Rates
Former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson warned that the United States needs an emergency “break‑the‑glass” plan to address a possible flood of Treasury sales and rapidly rising interest rates. He linked the threat to a potential erosion of the petrodollar system...
Retire Dot Plots, Forward Guidance, and Cut Press Conferences
Shitposting aside, I think it would be a great move to retire dot plots, forward guidance, and have less press conferences
Two Senators, Decades‑Long Ties, Introduce Fed Nominee
Sen. Dave McCormick is introducing Kevin Warsh at his confirmation hearing, one of at least two senators who have known the Fed chair nominee for decades (Bill Hagerty being the other)
UAE Seeks U.S. Dollar Swap Line as Iran Conflict Threatens Liquidity
UAE Central Bank Governor Khaled Mohamed Balama met U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Washington to propose a dollar‑denominated currency‑swap line that would give the Gulf state cheap access to U.S. dollars if the war with Iran deepens. The talks...
Guindos Urges ECB to Stay Prudent on Rates
Guindos says the ECB needs to be prudent, keep a cool head on interest rates https://t.co/M1IReINmVX via @basteiro https://t.co/oIMMI7cOLA
Trump Backs Rate Hikes yet Demands World’s Lowest Rates
Kernen: Would you ever be OK with the Fed raising rates if inflation becomes a problem? Trump: “I think Kevin’s great…. I’ve been in favor of interest rate rises to fight inflation” but “we should have the lowest interest rate in...
Why the BIS Is Worried About Stablecoins
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) warned that the stablecoin market’s concentration—dominated by Tether and Circle, which together hold about 85% of the $315 billion supply—poses systemic risks. BIS General Manager Pablo Hernandez de Cos called for stronger international regulatory coordination to...
Trump Says He'd Be Disappointed if Rates Aren't Cut
President Trump asked on CNBC if he would be disappointed if Warsh didn’t cut rates right away because of the Iran war or other factors: “I would”
Warsh's Confirmation Will Be Measured by Powell Standard
My take: A successful central banker, the adage goes, moves interest rates the right way at the right time and looks like he knows what he is doing. If Kevin Warsh is confirmed, he will be judged by...
ING Sees DXY Settle in 98‑98.5 Range as Gulf Tension Keeps FX Options Volatile
ING economist Chris Turner expects the US Dollar Index to trade between 98.00 and 98.50 this quarter, citing the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and lingering Middle‑East conflict risk. The forecast signals a tighter range for FX options pricing...
RBI's Liquidity Flood Drives Rupee Sharply Lower
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: The Reserve Bank of India is DIGGING A HOLE for the rupee. After years of tight management, now the RBI is FLOODING India with liquidity and the rupee is tanking. https://t.co/fy7Uowe3o2
Fed Stuck Between Rate Hike and Cut Amid Global Strain
Debate within the Fed about whether its next move is up or down intensifying. Fed is in an uncomfortabke holding pattern on rates. Its inflation-fighting credibiity is eroding. War distributions creating COVID like supply chain problems - emerging Asia hit...
Oil Surge Pushes Brazil Real Toward 4.50/USD
We're on our way to $/BRL 4.50. Oil prices aren't going to fall back to pre-war levels quickly, which lifts Brazil's terms of trade and the Real. I'm moving my posts behind a paywall in coming months. Please consider subscribing...
US‑Iran Talks Will Steer Markets over Next 48 Hours
Here's the top global macro event risk over the next 48 hours. I think there is a lot of important backdrop to the likes of US retail sales, UK jobs and Tesla earnings....however, I think the US-Iran negotiations will be responsible...
Hormuz Blockade Drives Iran's Currency to Record Weakness
Read a good summary of the economic impact of the Hormuz blockade on Iran by Foreign Affairs. A good rudimentary reminder of the pressure is the exchange rate: USD/IRR is 1.320 mln and black market looks to be around 1.512...
ECB Holds Off April Rate Hike Amid Uncertainty
🇪🇺ECB unlikely to hike in April. @Lagarde: « This double uncertainty about the duration of the shock and the breadth of pass-through argues for gathering more information before drawing firm conclusions for our monetary policy. » https://t.co/nkISsCK5gz
Warsh: Fed Independence Rests with Itself, Inflation Its Duty
Kevin Warsh is set to tell the Senate at his hearing Tuesday that "Fed independence is largely up to the Fed" and that inflation is the Fed's responsibility "without excuse or equivocation" https://t.co/tzi2zEeXj8