Today's Currencies Pulse
RBI logs record $53.13B net dollar sale as rupee slides 9.5%
The Reserve Bank of India recorded its largest net dollar sale in at least 15 years, disposing of $53.13 billion in FY 26, more than double the $25.52 billion sold in FY 23. The rupee weakened about 9.5% against the dollar, prompting heavy RBI intervention in both spot and forward markets, where forward‑market net sales hit a historic negative $103.06 billion in March 2026.
Commerzbank Says EUR/USD Upside Limited as Dollar Risks Rise
Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen argues that the euro's recent gains against the dollar are likely to stall, citing market over‑estimation of the ECB’s reaction to fresh inflation data. She adds that over the longer horizon, the US dollar faces heightened inflation and policy risks that could reverse the current trend.
Weekly Technical Outlook: DXY, EUR/USD, Gold, Bitcoin
DXY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Gold, Bitcoin, Equities Weekly Technical Outlook (Webinar Archive) https://t.co/6NHmaVL1Id Asset Chaptered on YouTube: https://t.co/eDJEDyrxrG
RBI Deputy Governor Warns Indian Banks CBDC Could Erode Deposits
India's central bank deputy governor T Rabi Sankar told lenders to brace for the Digital Rupee's impact on deposit balances, warning that the new central bank digital currency could displace funds used for transaction services. He also ruled out any role for...
Spotting Fake Sunday Gap-Down Within 20 Minutes
Another fake Sunday night Gap-Down. We called it 20 mins after Asia open. Even the RSI pattern fits.
Egypt, India Keep Floating Currencies to Shield Against Oil Shock
Egypt and India stand alone among the major EMs in allowing their currencies to adjust freely to the spike in oil prices. This will stand them in good stead. A freely-floating exchange rate helps protect you from bad shocks like...
Yen Slides as BoJ Rate‑hike Hopes Fade, USD/JPY Tests 159.86
MUFG analyst Teppei Ino reported that the Japanese yen fell sharply as market expectations for additional Bank of Japan rate hikes evaporated, sending the USD/JPY pair to a brief high of 159.86. The move underscores a broader shift in risk...
Latin America Markets Surge on Expected Iran Peace, High Oil
At last week's IMF/WB meetings, markets were as bullish as I can remember on Latin America. They're trading an end to the war with Iran and oil prices staying elevated for a while, all of which benefits the region's oil...
Hassett Calls UAE Key Ally, Dismisses Need for FX Swap
JUST IN: Hassett views UAE as a key ally, with Bessent ready to assist if needed, and believes a UAE FX swap isn't required.
Oil Shock Muddies Rate Path, but Loonie Seen Gaining Ground: TD Economics
TD Economics warns that renewed oil market turbulence is reviving inflation risks, keeping bond yields above pre‑crisis levels and clouding the path for central‑bank rate cuts. The firm expects the Canadian dollar to benefit from a narrowing US‑Canada rate gap,...
UAE Can Preserve Peg via Swap Line, Not Reserve Cuts
A lot of this seems preemptive, given UAE’s large existing FX reserves. Using a swap line for a bit to help maintain the currency peg would be seen as less disruptive than trimming reserves.
PBOC Sets Yuan Midpoint at Weakest Since April 13, Signaling Continued Depreciation
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announced a daily midpoint for the yuan that is the weakest since April 13, reinforcing a trend of depreciation. The move is expected to ripple through emerging‑market currencies and affect global trade pricing.
François Villeroy De Galhau: One Year on - Why the Transatlantic Partnership Remains of Mutual Interest
In a speech to the Atlantic Council, French central bank governor François Villeroy de Galhau highlighted that the global economy proved more resilient than expected over the past year. Global growth reached 3.4% in 2025, outpacing the 2.8% forecast, while...
BOJ Likely to Keep Monetary Policy Unchanged in April - Report
Japan’s central bank is expected to hold interest rates steady at its April policy meeting, as uncertainty from the Middle East conflict weighs on decision‑making. Traders currently assign only about a 15% probability to an April hike, though odds climb...
USDJPY Erases Friday's Losses on Renewed US-Iran Tensions as Ceasefire Deadline Nears
The USDJPY pair erased Friday's losses as U.S. President Trump reaffirmed the Strait of Hormuz blockade, prompting traders to hedge ahead of a looming cease‑fire deadline. The pair bounced off the 158.00 support level, with buyers targeting the 162.00 handle,...
Andrew Bailey: Central Bank Independence – in Need of Further Thinking
Andrew Bailey argues that the traditional notion of central‑bank independence (CBI) is outdated, especially as banks now juggle both monetary and financial‑stability mandates. He traces CBI’s roots from 19th‑century ideas of aligned interests to the post‑1970s statutory frameworks that anchor...
Capital.com Client Trading Volumes Hit Record $1.27 Trillion in Q1 2026 Led by MENA, Gold
Capital.com reported a record $1.27 trillion in client trading volume for Q1 2026, an 11.2% increase from the previous quarter. The number of trades jumped 81% year‑on‑year, driven by gold’s record‑high prices, volatile crypto markets, and heightened oil volatility amid Middle‑East conflict....
China’s Lending Benchmark Stability Prompts Asian Markets Growth
China’s core lending benchmark, the 7‑day repo rate, has held steady at 2.5% for the third consecutive month, reinforcing liquidity in the country’s banking system. The stability has encouraged investors to increase exposure to Asian equities, driving a 1.8% rally...
Dollar Index Targets 98.20, Possible Retracements to 99.25
The dollar index may have fallen in five waves, and it will confirm if we go above 98.20. Then a 50% retracement to 98.87 may follow or we can even attempt 61.8% retracement to 99.245 #DXY #DollarIndex #ElliottWave #TechnicalAnalysis #Forex...
FX Daily: Looking for a New Steady State for the Dollar
The dollar rebounded after the Strait of Hormuz was declared fully open, but analysts expect it to hover around the 97.5‑98 DXY level for the rest of the quarter. Fed Governor Christopher Waller warned that prolonged high oil prices could...
Hormuz Tension Leaves Dollar Dominance Unshaken
🔥The Hormuz Crisis: ▪️Pricing oil in US dollar is intact ▪️The GCC's dollar peg is intact
UAE Threatens Shift From Petrodollar to Yuan
💥JUST IN The UAE has told the U.S. that if it runs short of U.S. dollars, it will be forced to use Chinese yuan or other currencies for oil sales and transactions. The petrodollar is at risk. https://t.co/ENEUL9x7LY
USD/CHF Breaches 0.80, Triggering Carry‑Trade Re‑balancing and FX Options Positioning
The USD/CHF pair slipped above the 0.80 technical barrier on April 19, prompting traders to re‑balance carry‑trade exposures and pile into forward contracts and FX options. The move underscores the clash between U.S. rate differentials and Swiss National Bank policy...
Taiwan Fights Chip Boom to Protect Undervalued Currency
Taiwan's willingness to do absolutely anything and everything to keep the chip boom from putting pressure on the wildly undervalued Taiwan dollar is unw=matched ... 1/ https://t.co/yVjNKHd7ci
Latin America’s Mixed PMI and Retail Data Reveal Uneven Recovery
Latin American economies released a patchwork of PMI, CPI and retail sales figures this week, highlighting divergent momentum across the region. Brazil’s Focus survey and FX flows, Mexico’s February retail sales, and Colombia’s trade numbers each painted a different picture,...
Oil Spike Highlights Balance‑of‑Payments Shock Over Dollar
With oil rising again (alas), my Odd Lots episode from last week gains new relevance -- tis at least as much about the balance of payments impact of an oil shock as about the dollar https://t.co/JtgH1nPC0z
"The Foundations Of Dollar Dominance Are Weaker than Anticipated..."
Economist Barry Eichengreen argues that the dollar’s dominance, while still covering about 60% of global foreign‑exchange reserves, is on a secular decline due to weakened U.S. political institutions, soaring public debt, and a lack of coherent foreign‑policy strategy. Recent safe‑haven...
Market, Rupee Fortunes May Prove Fickle Amid Iran Flareup
India’s equity markets are poised to extend recent gains despite renewed geopolitical tension after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, pushing Brent crude back toward $100 a barrel. The Sensex and Nifty have risen over 5% since early April, while...
Dollar Climbs as Middle East Tensions Close Hormuz
JUST IN: US dollar surges amid escalating Middle East conflicts, with the Strait of Hormuz shut.
GBP/USD Slides to 1.3525 as Mixed UK Data and Middle East Tensions Boost Dollar
The pound slipped about 0.25% to near 1.3525 after mixed UK economic releases and escalating geopolitical risk in the Middle East lifted safe‑haven demand for the US dollar. The move underscores the tug‑of‑war between uneven British growth and global risk...
Rebalancing the Chinese Economy
China is shifting its growth model from an investment‑ and export‑driven engine to a more consumption‑focused, high‑tech economy. Over the past decade the investment share of GDP fell from 47% to 41%, while consumption rose to about 57% of output....
U.S. Dollar Falls as Iran Ceasefire Hopes Spur Risk‑On Trading
The U.S. dollar slipped against the euro and yen after diplomatic signals raised hopes for a ceasefire in Iran. Traders moved out of safe‑haven assets into equities and emerging‑market bets, prompting a broader risk‑on rally.
African Finance Chiefs Seek Emergency Funding as US‑Iran War Threatens Currency Stability
African finance ministers and central bank governors convened on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank spring meetings to request emergency financing, citing the US‑Iran war’s impact on fuel prices, supply chains and foreign aid. Angola, the Republic of...
FPIs Pour $580 M Into Indian Equities as Rupee Steadies
Foreign portfolio investors injected almost ₹4,800 cr ($580 M) into Indian equities this week, reversing a mid‑month dip as the rupee steadied and geopolitical tensions eased. The inflow contrasts with a net outflow of about ₹45,000 cr ($540 M) across April, highlighting a cautious...
Maldives Seeks Extension of India's $400 Million Currency Swap Amid Liquidity Crunch
The Maldives has formally asked India to prolong its $400 million currency swap line as the island nation battles a sharp drop in tourism, soaring energy costs and a $500 million Sukuk repayment. India’s government is weighing the request against existing rules...
Turtle Soup Signals Bearish Break After Liquidity Sweep
📊 GBPUSD – Weekly Forecast 🚀 🔎 On the Weekly Time Frame, we have a clear Turtle Soup setup 🪤 🎯 This indicates a potential bearish move after liquidity is taken 📌 Trading Plan: 👉 First, we wait for Previous Week High sweep 💧 👉...
UAE Threatens Oil Trade Shift to Yuan over USD Shortage
UAE to Trump Administration: "You started this war; if we run short of USDs as a result of it, either you will give us USD swap lines, or we will be forced to start transacting oil and gas in CNY...
Elliott Wave Analysis of USDJPY – April 20th, 2026
USD/JPY slipped for the third straight week as markets priced in a potential peace deal with Iran, reducing expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise rates to combat inflation. The easing of geopolitical risk has shifted sentiment toward a softer...
UAE Holds Strong Reserves Amid Unreported Figures, Seeks Swap Line
Interesting WSJ story about the Emirates request for a swap line -- the UAE hasn't reported its end March reserves but it went into the conflict with tons of reserves and no shortage of liquid bills in US custodians 1/ https://t.co/5Q61nzi68P
Saudi Deficit Swells, Turning Kingdom Into Eurodollar Drain
Saudi Arabia's deficit widened to $25.28 billion in Q4 2025. Instead of being a source of the petrodollars, the kingdom has become a drain on the eurodollar system. https://t.co/JkziRznkyx
Commodity Surge Boosts Norway, Canada, Australia and NZ Currencies Over Dollar
A spike in commodity prices linked to the Middle East war has propelled the currencies of Norway, Canada, Australia and New Zealand ahead of the U.S. dollar. Reuters analysis notes these four “commodity currencies” are among the top two performers...
BRICS to Launch PIX‑style Cross‑border Digital Currency System
BRICS is preparing a payment system inspired by Brazilian PIX... ...that will allow direct transactions between countries using national #digitalcurrencies for without relying on the dollar or Western #banks as intermediaries. @clickpetroleoeg. #payments https://t.co/1oj8tj7cvu
Geopolitical Turmoil Boosts Demand for Dollar Alternatives
As geopolitical uncertainty grows, so does interest in alternatives to the US dollar. Stablecoins and basket currencies are entering the conversation. https://t.co/e2EvVLtbv1
BOJ Governor Ueda Signals No April Rate Hike, Market Bets Drop to 10%
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank would likely hold rates through April, steering clear of any hint of a hike. His comments sent the market's perceived probability of an April increase plunging from about 70% to...
Turkey's Record Current‑account Deficit Stems From Domestic Policies
Turkey's in trouble for the same old reason. The current account deficit in Jan & Feb 2026 is the widest ever except for Jan & Feb 2023, when Lira ended up sharply devaluing. Turkey's problems have nothing to do with...
Global Economic Calendar: Key Data Releases This Week
Everyone will be watching the headlines but don't miss this busy global calendar 👇 🇺🇸 US Retail Sales 🇪🇺 EZ -GE ZEW -GE IFO -EZ PMIs -GE PPI 🇬🇧 UK -Jobs -CPI -PMIs -Retail Sales 🇨🇦 CA -CPI & PPI -Retail Sales 🇯🇵 JP CPI 🇳🇿 NZ -Trade -CPI
U.S. Extends Russian Oil Waiver as Central Bank Reprices Ruble, Dollar, Euro and Yuan
The U.S. Treasury renewed a license allowing purchases of Russian oil cargoes through May 16, easing global supply concerns. At the same time, the Russian central bank cut the official dollar and yuan rates and lifted the euro rate, pushing...
ECB Should Wait, Not Rush Rate Decisions
ECB better off waiting than rushing into rate action, Demarco says https://t.co/IAAWNv0BDq via @jrandow https://t.co/K09LIzQVbh
Key Geopolitics and Economic Data Shaping Monday Trades
Middle East Ceasefire, US Retail Sales, Global PMIs Join us on Monday at 8:45am ET to dive into everything that will impact your trades 👇 https://t.co/IpQ8H0G5Ss https://t.co/IpQ8H0G5Ss
Hormuz Reopening Sends Brent Below $90, Triggers Dollar’s Third Weekly Loss and Pounds Weakening
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz drove Brent crude futures 10% lower to under $90 a barrel, sparking the U.S. dollar’s third consecutive weekly decline and a 1.2% slide in the pound. Traders see the move as a catalyst...
India Switches to Yuan for Iranian Oil Purchases
This reported now in BT but the news several days old. We discussed it in the Daily Energy Report: Iran set the conditions for LPG and oil imports. Desperation is relative. India settles Iranian oil...