Today's Currencies Pulse
RBI logs record $53.13B net dollar sale as rupee slides 9.5%
The Reserve Bank of India recorded its largest net dollar sale in at least 15 years, disposing of $53.13 billion in FY 26, more than double the $25.52 billion sold in FY 23. The rupee weakened about 9.5% against the dollar, prompting heavy RBI intervention in both spot and forward markets, where forward‑market net sales hit a historic negative $103.06 billion in March 2026.
U.S.-Iran Tensions Spark Sharp Swings in U.S. Stocks, Oil and Treasuries
U.S. President Donald Trump’s extension of a cease‑fire with Iran, coupled with a continued naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, sent the S&P 500 and Nasdaq tumbling while oil prices surged. Traders scrambled for liquidity as Treasury yields rose and the dollar firmed, highlighting the fragility of equity markets amid geopolitical risk.
Liberia Central Bank Seeks Senate OK to Print LD$79 B (≈$395 M)
The Central Bank of Liberia has asked the Senate to approve a LD$79 billion (about $395 million) banknote print programme through 2030, plus an emergency LD$14.7 billion (≈$73.5 million) issue for 2026. Lawmakers warned the fast‑track schedule could limit scrutiny and fuel inflationary pressure.
Bessent Says 'Many' U.S. Allies Have Asked for Currency Swaps Amid Iran War Turbulence
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told a Senate appropriations hearing that many Gulf allies, including the United Arab Emirates, have asked for dollar‑denominated currency swap lines to offset the economic shock from the Iran‑U.S. conflict. A swap line would provide...
Impulse Trading Kills Accounts; Trade Logic Over Emotion
Impulse trading is silent account killer. This setup shows how smart money traps traders before a strong move. Trade with logic, not emotion. #ForexReels #TradingSetup #ICTForex #SMCTrading #reels
US ESF's Dollar Holdings Too Small for GCC Support
ESF isn't all that big -- And its liquid dollar assets are actually quite small Lines for all US allies in the GCC would be small v many countries existing reserves (let alone their SWFs) and would have to be funded out...
Azerbaijan’s Central Bank Holds USD Rate at 1.7 Manat, Signals Policy Steadiness
The Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA) published its official exchange rates for April 22, leaving the US dollar fixed at 1.7 manat. Euro, Turkish lira and Russian ruble rates were also unchanged, providing a clear benchmark for traders and signaling continuity...
Late Stablecoin Adoption Risks Economic Obsolescence
Countries slow to adopt stablecoins will face the same problem as late internet adopters. Sending money across borders still costs 6% and takes days, while stablecoins settle in seconds for fractions of a cent with no intermediaries sitting in the...
Caution at MPC as War Muddies View
The Reserve Bank of India’s monetary‑policy committee left the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% after its April 6‑8 meeting, citing persistent supply‑chain disruptions from the West Asia conflict. Minutes reveal that inflation is expected to rise, but the surge is...
Rates Spark: Swap Lines Imply some Pressure
The market has eased from earlier fears that a frozen Strait of Hormuz would cripple oil supplies, yet oil prices remain elevated as the closure persists and Iran refuses to negotiate without a US blockade lift. Bond yields are inching...
ECB Fuels US‑payment Paranoia to Accelerate Digital Euro
ECB's Piero Cipollone is currently being grilled by Nicolas Veron on the digital euro in a refreshingly sharp way. Veron just pointed out that the ECB's paranoia about the US payment companies pulling out of Europe is somewhat far-fetched, to...
Indian Rupee Slides to 93.75 per Dollar as Oil Spikes and West Asia Tensions Weigh
The Indian rupee weakened to 93.75 per U.S. dollar, marking a third straight session of decline. Higher crude oil prices and lingering doubts over a West Asia peace deal combined with the Reserve Bank of India's recent easing of non‑deliverable...
Petroyuan Will Mature in Bursts of Crisis
The petroyuan – oil trades settled in Chinese yuan – is gaining traction not through a slow ideological shift but via crisis‑driven operational choices. Recent Indian and African transactions show firms opting for yuan when U.S. sanctions or routing constraints...
WEEKLY WEBCAST: Debating Warsh
Kevin Warsh, the leading candidate to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed chair, is pushing for an earlier cut to the federal funds rate. Ed and Elias argue his rationale—based on a declining labor share and an AI‑driven productivity boom—misreads the...
Turkish Central Bank Holds Rates, Remaining Cautious
The Central Bank of Turkey kept its 1‑week repo rate at 37% and left the 450‑basis‑point interest‑rate corridor unchanged. A surge in foreign‑exchange reserves added roughly $20 bn in April, lifting gross reserves to about $175 bn and net reserves to $38.6 bn....
Rupee Extends Losing Streak as Iran War Jitters Lift Oil to $100
The Indian rupee slipped for a third straight session, closing at 93.7950, down 0.3% and hovering near a three‑week low. Brent crude breached $100 a barrel after renewed Iran‑related tensions, pulling regional equities lower, including a 0.9% drop in the...
Germany Cuts GDP Forecast in Half on the Iran War
Germany has halved its GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 0.5% and lowered the 2027 outlook to 0.9% amid the escalating Iran‑related war. The Bundesbank warns that the full economic drag from the Middle‑East conflict will hit later, with inflation...
Yield Caps Shift Fiscal Strain to Yen, Raise Rates
There's no free lunch in macro. The Yen keeps falling because Japan uses the BoJ to cap yields. That doesn't make fiscal strain go away. It just transfers it from the bond market to the Yen. The way out is...
USDINR Spike Calls for Tax‑Free Debt, Dollar Inflows
It looks like USDINR is going to make one final nudge at the highs and at the government to do something on the currency front. We need to get those dollars flowing in, especially given the decline in the dollar...
ECB's Simkus: The ECB Shouldn't Raise Interest Rates in April
ECB Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus said an interest‑rate increase at the April meeting is unlikely, reflecting the current view that the deposit facility rate of 2.00% remains appropriate. Core inflation is hovering around the 2% target, even as headline...
Missing Target by 2 Pips Turns Profit Into Loss
When you miss the target by 2 pips & turn into a loss #XAGUSD #forex https://t.co/w0bCbr4KuI
EUR/USD Slides Toward Key Support, Breakdown Risk Rises
Euro Short-term Outlook: EUR/USD Slides Toward Key Support- Breakdown Risk Build https://t.co/CAmph20YJU $EURUSD Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/jxCZPx2vwJ
Dollar Hits One‑Week High as US‑Iran Ceasefire Extension Weakens Peso and Dampens Gold Demand
President Donald Trump extended the US‑Iran ceasefire indefinitely, prompting traders to abandon the dollar’s safe‑haven appeal. The greenback rose to a one‑week high, the Philippine peso slipped to ₱60.13 per dollar and Dubai gold prices fell sharply as oil‑price worries...
Korean Equities Soar While Currency Fundamentals Crumble
Crazy retail outflows into levered US stock funds -- and a national pension service that is a structural source of weakness in the won (by design) and that the Koreans have had trouble turning off even when it worked at cross...
Warsh's Potential Fed Reforms Analyzed by Experts
Read this morning’s rundown from me and @samjsutton about reforms Warsh might make to the Fed: https://t.co/bBY0mNIO8y
Bank Indonesia Holds Rates, Prioritises Rupiah Stability
Bank Indonesia left its benchmark policy rate unchanged at 4.75%, matching market expectations, as fuel subsidies keep inflation near 3.5% and reduce the need for a hawkish stance. The central bank highlighted rupiah stability, noting the currency remains undervalued and...
Cash Surges in 2025, Boosting Fed Balance Sheet
𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐡 𝐢𝐬 𝐝𝐞𝐚𝐝. 𝐋𝐨𝐧𝐠 𝐥𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐡. The @NewYorkFed's SOMA annual report shows currency growth accelerated in 2025! This is a bit surprising given the digital age, but it bodes well for the Fed's balance sheet and operating income. (1/7) https://t.co/jvk7p0srbM
USDCAD Selloff Signals Major Shift in CAD Direction
Short video update on the #USDCAD levels https://t.co/dZ4PNXH9rP USD/CAD Selloff Signals Bigger Shift in Canadian Dollar Direction https://t.co/igIJFHyeHl
America First Fed? Trump Nominee Kevin Warsh Signals ‘Monetary Sovereignty’ Push: Analysts
Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s nominee for Fed chair, signaled a shift toward “monetary sovereignty,” prioritizing domestic productivity and tighter control of the Fed’s balance sheet. In testimony to the Senate Banking Committee, he pledged to work with the Treasury to...
UK's Yield Strategy Beats Japan's Yield Caps
The UK gets a lot of guff for being a fiscal basket case due to its high yields, but that's not right. The counter-example is Japan, which caps yields using the BoJ (lhs), sending the Yen into a depreciation spiral....
The Real Cost of Sending Money Abroad: What You Need To Look Out For
International money transfers that advertise "no fees" often hide costs in the exchange‑rate spread, which can add 1%‑6% to the transaction. The gap between the mid‑market rate and the provider’s quoted rate can turn a £1,000 transfer into a loss...
Philip R. Lane: Expanding the Supply of Euro Safe Assets
In a Frankfurt keynote, ECB Executive Board member Philip R. Lane warned that the euro area suffers from a chronic undersupply of euro‑denominated safe assets, with German Bunds alone too small to meet global demand. He outlined reforms that have...
Christopher J Waller: Modernising Federal Reserve Operations in the 21st Century
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller outlined a roadmap to modernize the Fed’s operational backbone. He traced the system’s shift from a fully decentralized, paper‑centric model to today’s hybrid where payments, IT and fiscal‑agency work are already centralized. Waller proposed...
The Role of AI in Modern Forex Bot Development
Artificial intelligence is reshaping forex bot development, moving from static rule‑based scripts to adaptive, data‑driven systems. Modern bots leverage machine learning, natural language processing, deep learning, and reinforcement learning to parse massive market data and react in real time. This...
Olli Rehn: Geopolitical Turmoil and the Eurozone
Olli Rehn, the European Central Bank’s vice‑president, warned that the war in Iran and broader Middle‑East turmoil are delivering a negative terms‑of‑trade shock to the euro area, pushing inflation higher and slowing GDP growth. He reaffirmed the ECB’s medium‑term strategy...
Sudan's Pound Plummets 36%, Ranks 4th Worst Globally
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Sudanese pound ranks as the WORLD'S 4TH WORST CURRENCY. The pound has depreciated by 36% against the USD over the past year. https://t.co/1Z4zQZWauW
UK Inflation Heads Towards 4%, but Rate Hikes Off the Table for Now
UK headline CPI rose to 3.3% in March, with core services inflation holding at 4.2%. Energy price forecasts—oil at $90‑$100 per barrel and natural gas around €55 (≈$60) per MWh—suggest inflation will hover between 3.5% and 4% through the second...
Elliott Wave Update of USDCAD – April 22nd, 2026
The USDCAD pair has slipped for the third consecutive week, hovering around the 1.3600 level. Elliott Wave analysts note that this support zone remains intact, but a decisive break could trigger further downside. Market participants are watching for a bearish...
North Korea's Won Plummets 69%, World's 2nd Worst Currency
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the North Korean won ranks as the WORLD'S 2ND WORST CURRENCY. The won has depreciated over 69% against the USD in the past year. THE WON'S COLLAPSE REMAINS THE WORLD'S MOST UNDERREPORTED CURRENCY STORY. https://t.co/d4hUPUxkTp
Elliott Wave Update of EURUSD – April 22nd, 2026
The latest Elliott Wave updates show divergent market dynamics as of April 22‑26, 2026. WTI crude oil is rallying on renewed fears that the US‑Iran cease‑fire may collapse, while Bitcoin has logged a fourth straight weekly gain, positioning it for a double‑digit...
JP Morgan Stays Bearish on the Japanese Yen Amid Higher Energy Prices
JP Morgan maintains a medium‑ to long‑term bearish outlook on the Japanese yen as higher energy prices from the Middle East conflict strain Japan’s import‑dependent economy. The firm cites widening trade deficits and rising cost‑push inflation as key drivers of yen...
ECB Policymaker Kazāks Says Not in a Rush to Make a Move on Monetary Policy
ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazāks told investors that, despite heightened uncertainty from the Middle East conflict, the central bank sees no immediate need to raise interest rates. He emphasized the "luxury" of time to collect more data before deciding...
Dollar Weakness Fuels 3%+ Oil Surge and Lifts LME Nickel and Alumina
The US dollar index slipped 0.16% to 98.06, prompting WTI crude to climb 4% and Brent up 3.78% overnight. Base‑metal markets responded, with LME nickel gaining 1.39% and the front‑month alumina contract rising 2.56%, highlighting the inverse relationship between the...
Venezuela’s Bolivar Plummets 84%, Calls for Dollarization
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Venezuelan bolivar ranks as the WORLD'S WORST currency. The bolivar has depreciated by over 84% against the USD in the past year. VENEZUELA = NEEDS TO OFFICIALLY DOLLARIZE. https://t.co/UKq5yzjxYD
Japan Exports Beat but Rising Import Costs Squeeze Trade Surplus
Japan’s March trade data showed exports rising 11.7% year‑on‑year, led by a 17.7% jump in shipments to China and modest growth to the United States. Imports surged 10.9% YoY, driven largely by higher energy costs, pushing the trade surplus down...
China Exporters Beset by Yuan Surge Look to Sell Dollar Rallies
Chinese exporters are grappling with a rapid yuan appreciation that has eroded profit margins on overseas orders. Gloria Yu, a bicycle parts supplier, reported heavy losses after the currency surged earlier this year and is now seeking ways to manage...
Ringgit Opens Almost Flat Against Greenback as US Extends Ceasefire with Iran
The Malaysian ringgit opened virtually unchanged at around RM3.95 per US dollar as traders digested the United States’ decision to extend its cease‑fire with Iran. Crude oil prices surged, with WTI up 2.57% to $89.67 a barrel and Brent 3.74%...
Dollar at Week High as Markets Raise Doubts over Iran Ceasefire
The U.S. dollar steadied in early Asian trade, climbing to a one‑week high of 98.415 on the dollar index as doubts resurfaced over President Trump’s indefinite Iran cease‑fire extension. The uncertainty revived safe‑haven demand for the greenback, while a slightly...
Brad Setser Weighs in on Chinese Current Account Puzzles
Curious what @Brad_Setser makes of the arguments made in "The Chinese current account imbalances: Puzzles, patterns, and possible causes" by Chang Ma and Shang-Jin Wei of Fudan. https://t.co/Ysceo5gx1a https://t.co/ZvoJfqSbzn
Central Bank Independence: An Update
Recent research reviewed by Eijffinger and de Haan (2026) confirms that while legal independence reduces inflation, it does not shield central banks from political interference. Studies show that roughly 10% of central banks experience annual political pressure, and 39% have...
Dot Plot Abolition Signal: How Forward Guidance Removal Concentrates Information-Cost Premium at the Short End
The article argues that central‑bank forward guidance acts as a market‑wide coordinate system, and its credible removal instantly forces short‑duration bond holders to demand higher compensation. A credible signal on April 21, 2026—when Fed nominee Kevin Warsh dismissed the dot...