Today's Currencies Pulse
RBI logs record $53.13B net dollar sale as rupee slides 9.5%
The Reserve Bank of India recorded its largest net dollar sale in at least 15 years, disposing of $53.13 billion in FY 26, more than double the $25.52 billion sold in FY 23. The rupee weakened about 9.5% against the dollar, prompting heavy RBI intervention in both spot and forward markets, where forward‑market net sales hit a historic negative $103.06 billion in March 2026.
Indian Rupee Slides to 10‑Year Low as Oil Prices Surge and Iran War Fuels Outflows
The Indian rupee slipped to a 10‑year trough of 94.25 per U.S. dollar, driven by a surge in crude oil prices above $105 a barrel and heightened capital outflows linked to the Iran conflict. The slide marks a 4.5% depreciation year‑to‑date and pushes the real effective exchange rate to its lowest in over a decade.
PIMCO Extends Over $10 Billion in Private Loans to Gulf States Amid Dollar Shortage
Pacific Investment Management Co. (PIMCO) has lent over $10 billion to sovereign and quasi‑sovereign borrowers in the Gulf, chiefly Abu Dhabi, Qatar and Kuwait, via private placements. The financing surge comes as the war in Iran has strained hard‑currency liquidity, prompting Gulf...
Scott Bessent’s ‘Swap Diplomacy’: A New Front for US Treasury
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is moving dollar‑swap diplomacy from the Federal Reserve to the Exchange Stabilisation Fund, beginning with a $20 billion line for Argentina and now eyeing a similar backstop for the UAE. The Treasury frames the effort as...
CME Group Benchmark Administration Deploys Repo Funds Rate US Dollar for Customer Testing
CME Group Benchmark Administration (CBA) has launched the Repo Funds Rate U.S. Dollar (RFR USD) in its New Release environment for customer testing. The rate is a volume‑weighted median of overnight repo trades on the BrokerTec CLOB, using both specific and...
Dollar Rises as US–Iran Stalemate Lift Oil Prices, Euro Hit by Weak Outlook
The U.S. dollar rose as oil prices climbed amid a lingering US‑Iran maritime standoff and a three‑week Israel‑Hezbollah ceasefire extension that failed to ease geopolitical risk. Higher oil prices are feeding inflation expectations, reinforcing a higher‑for‑longer rate outlook and safe‑haven...
AUDUSD Set to Drop, GBPAUD Poised to Surge
🚨 Market Alert 🚀 🔥 AUDUSD (H4) is looking ready to drop like water 📉 👉 Bearish pressure building — watch for confirmation 🔥 GBPAUD is ready to fly 📈 👉 Strong bullish potential — momentum loading
War and Sanctions Accelerate China’s Currency Push
China is accelerating its long‑term effort to internationalize the renminbi as a way to sidestep U.S. sanctions. The wars in Ukraine and Iran have pushed Russia, Iran and other sanctioned economies toward yuan‑denominated trade, giving Beijing a foothold in de‑dollarization....
Japanese Inflation Quickened in March, Complicating Bank of Japan Outlook
Japan’s consumer price index accelerated to 1.5% year‑on‑year in March, outpacing the 1.4% market forecast, while core inflation excluding fresh food rose to 1.8% – the first increase in five months. The uptick reflects broader price pressures from goods and...
CME Group Posts Record Q1 2026 Revenue as Derivatives Volume Jumps 22%
CME Group announced a 14% jump in Q1 2026 revenue to $5.5 billion, driven by a 22% year‑on‑year rise in average daily derivatives volume to 36.2 million contracts. The surge spanned all six asset classes and was powered by strong non‑U.S. activity,...
UAE Central Bank’s Cash‑Equivalents Share of Reserves Fell
Alex hasn't quite internalized how bad my eyes are and how much I need BIG FONTS ... but this is super interesting -- the UAE has a ton of cash equivalents on its central bank balance sheet (the various bars). ...
PBOC Sets USD/ CNY Reference Rate for Today at 6.8674 (Vs. Estimate at 6.8400)
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set today’s USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8674, slightly weaker than the Reuters estimate of 6.8400. The central bank maintains a ±2% trading band around this midpoint, allowing the yuan to fluctuate within that range....
Tooze and IMF Overlook Exchange Rates in Imbalance Analysis
I cannot criticise Tooze for leaving out the exchange rate as a central variable when the IMF (... the IMF ... lest we forget, whose mandate is around exchange rates and the balance of payments) also left the exchange rate...
SNB Free to Adjust Rates and Intervene, Says Schlegel
Schlegel says a vigilant SNB is unrestricted on interest rates and interventions https://t.co/T29eQBLJeq via @bbenrath https://t.co/d7Ln9mGd5W
PBOC Is Expected to Set the USD/CNY Reference Rate at 6.8400 – Reuters Estimate
The People’s Bank of China is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8400, a key daily fixing watched by Asian FX markets. China’s managed‑floating system anchors the yuan within a ±2% band around the midpoint, which the PBOC...
Eurozone Inflation at 3% Forces ECB to Hold, Stagflation Returns
Decidedly grim survey data in the Eurozone for April nails the ECB's decision for a hold next week, despite another increase in inflation, to around 3%. Stagflation economics is back; did it ever leave?
Dollar's Dominance Eclipses Historic Pound Supremacy
This chart, from a Banque de France paper by @RVicquery (now at the Bk of England) shows just how dominant the dollar has become. Far more than the pound ever was. https://t.co/Ev6hWwiaZX https://t.co/Ot2Vda1tSt
Indonesian Rupiah Breaks 17,300 per Dollar as Global Uncertainty Fuels Weakness
The Indonesian rupiah slipped to 17,306 per U.S. dollar on April 23, 2026, briefly breaching the 17,300 mark. Bank Indonesia blamed rising global uncertainty and stepped up market interventions, while market participants warn the currency could weaken further toward 17,400.
SNB's Sub‑zero Rate Shift Outweighs Standard Cuts
SNB move below zero is a bigger step than a normal cut, Schlegel tells NZZ https://t.co/ZMyYbIPZxG https://t.co/a1V1z0xvIk
Simplify Trades: Use Smart Money Sell Model
Overthink → Overlose. Simple. This setup shows a perfect Smart Money sell model: CHoCH → FVG → OB → Liquidity sweep. Stop complicating your trades. #ForexTrading #ICTForex #SmartMoneyConcept #PriceAction #reels
ECB's Nagel Says Trump's Fed Attacks Caused Flight to Safety
ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel warned that President Donald Trump’s repeated attacks on the Federal Reserve are prompting a flight to safety. Bundesbank research shows the rhetoric has lowered Treasury yields, depressed equity prices, boosted gold and weakened the dollar....
China Shifts Commodity Payments to CNY, Sidelines USD Crisis
It matters greatly, here's why: 1. China can run out of USD, but it can't run out of CNY. 2. China's biggest USD outflow is in commodity imports - est. $1.5-2.0 trillion in commodities, mostly in energy. 3. So every 10% of their...
Warsh Pushes Balance Sheet Shrinkage via QE Resolution Fund
As I wrote with Matt Sekerke in @WSJ, the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, is CORRECT. He wants to SHRINK the Fed’s balance sheet. So do we. The only way to do it cleanly and rapidly is through the establishment of a...
Zimbabwe Keeps Tight Fiscal and Monetary Policies to Anchor 4.4% Inflation
Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube told delegates in Bulawayo that Zimbabwe will maintain a restrictive fiscal and monetary stance to cement inflation at 4.4%. The move aims to protect the hard‑won single‑digit price stability after a decade of hyperinflation, while the...
Israel's Inflation On Target, Money Supply Grows Within Golden Rate
Israel’s inflation is 1.9%/yr in March. That's within Israel’s 1%-3%/yr target. Israel’s broad money supply is growing at 8.08%/yr, WITHIN Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 7.7%-9.7%/yr, a rate consistent w/ Israel’s 1%-3%/yr target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/vCdAIfLoB0
Handling Near‑Miss Trades: Close, Wait, or Adjust Stop?
Do you close at a loss, wait or move your stop? What do you do when your trade misses the target by 2 pips (or 2 cents), which would have made you $3,500. https://t.co/faJBqUIctX
Rate Hike at the Central Bank of the Philippines
On April 23, 2026, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas lifted its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%, its first hike since October 2023. The move reverses a 25‑bp cut made two months earlier, bringing the rate back above the...
Middle East Still Holds Trillion in Dollar Assets, Not Switching
Tony Nash is right that the Middle East isn't de dollarizing. Iran wants sanctions relief so it (in some ideal world) can re dollarize and stop selling to China at a discount ... 1/2
Global PMIs Surpass Forecasts; Eurozone Contracts
The Composite PMIs - timely proxies for GDP for the major economies - largely beat expectations for April's update. The exception was the Eurozone and major member components, which missed forecasts significantly and slipped into contraction: https://t.co/g0G7ZJWDN1
LCH Predicts Yuan Will Overtake Yen as Second‑most Traded Currency in Global FX Options
LCH’s ForexClear unit says the offshore yuan is on track to displace the Japanese yen as the second‑largest currency in worldwide FX options trading, trailing only the euro‑dollar pair. The projection, slated for the Bank for International Settlements’ 2028 triennial...
Dropping US‑Iran Talk Deadlines From My Calendar
I am going to stop putting in proposed deadlines for the US-Iran talks into my macro calendar. Changing it intraday at this point...
Chinese Yuan Falls to 6.865 per Dollar, Highlighting Currency Pressure
China's central parity rate weakened 15 pips to 6.865 per U.S. dollar on Thursday, marking the latest slide in the yuan amid widening global interest‑rate gaps. The move underscores growing external headwinds and the People's Bank of China's limited room...
Derivative Path, Baton Systems Collaborate to Enable Regional Banks to Scale FX Services with Greater Liquidity Efficiency
Derivative Path and Baton Systems have partnered to launch an integrated FX payments and nostro management platform aimed at regional and mid‑market banks. The cloud‑native, API‑first solution combines Derivative Path’s multi‑liquidity connectivity with Baton’s real‑time risk and settlement orchestration, giving...
93.6% AND COUNTING SINCE 2000: The Silent Collapse of Every Major Global Currency Against Gold & Why Sound Money Must...
Since the turn of the millennium, every major fiat currency has shed roughly 93% of its purchasing power when measured against gold, with the U.S. dollar down 93.8%, the euro 92.9%, the pound 94.9%, and the yen 96%. The article...
Criticizing Central Bankers Is Pointless if You Oppose Them
It’s tough to take criticisms of how well a central banker is performing their duties if the criticism is coming from someone who doesn’t think central bankers should exist in the first place.
OANDA Japan to Hike FX and CFD Margin Rates, Certain Positions to Be Transferred to MT5
OANDA Japan will raise margin rates on its Tokyo MT4 server effective June 12, 2026, moving most FX contracts to a uniform 10% margin and doubling margins on stock‑index and commodity CFDs. Accounts with a margin maintenance ratio below 200% will be...
UK Yields Rise as BoE Shuns Gilt Buying, Unlike ECB
In Oct. '22, the Bank of England refused to keep buying gilts, in contrast the ECB that capitulated to Italy and Spain, capping their yields that summer. Markets now price yield caps for Italy and Spain, but not for the...
Dollar Reasserts Itself As Global Tensions Shift Currency Markets
After a year of decline, the U.S. dollar rallied 2.5% against the euro and yen in early March, reaching a 3% gain versus the euro by March 16. The surge was sparked by the United States’ military offensive against Iran, which...
Japan Finance Minister Katayama Delivers Another Intervention Warning
Japan Finance Minister Shunichi Katayama warned that the government retains a "free hand" to intervene in the foreign‑exchange market as the USD/JPY pair edges toward the 160 level. He highlighted past interventions that produced immediate moves but were short‑lived, citing...
Understanding Currency Debasement: Definition and Historical Examples
Currency debasement describes the reduction of a money unit’s intrinsic worth, traditionally by alloying precious‑metal coins with cheaper metals. In modern economies the concept extends to fiat systems where governments expand the money supply without matching output, effectively diluting value....
Nigerian Naira Slides to ₦1,350/$ as Reserves Drop $1.4 Bn
The Nigerian naira weakened to roughly ₦1,350 per U.S. dollar on April 21, 2026, as external reserves fell by $1.4 bn to $48.62 bn. The slide reflects sustained demand for foreign currency, a widening official‑parallel market gap, and volatile oil prices that...
BSP Tightens Policy in the Philippines as Inflation Surge Overrides Growth Concerns
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.5% on April 23, responding to a sharp jump in inflation. Headline inflation accelerated to 4.1% year‑over‑year in March, pushing core inflation to 3.2% and breaching the...
Xi Jinping Wants a Powerful Currency. America’s War Has Helped
Chinese President Xi Jinping is accelerating efforts to turn the yuan into a global reserve and payment currency, with the digital e‑CNY at the forefront of the strategy. The United States’ costly overseas conflicts have strained the dollar’s dominance, indirectly...
Rupee Slides 34 Paise to 94.12 Against US Dollar in Early Trade
The Indian rupee slipped to 94.12 per U.S. dollar, marking a fourth straight session of depreciation. The decline was amplified by a 1.37% rise in Brent crude to $103.31 a barrel and heightened geopolitical tension in West Asia. Foreign institutional...
Yuan's Share of Global FX Trades Climbs to 8.5%
Bloomberg: "The yuan made up 8.5% of global currency transactions including spot, forwards, swaps and options, up from 7% in 2022. That compared with 89% for the dollar, 28.9% for the euro 16.8% for the yen, and 10.2% for the...
FX Alert: Dollar Bid Deepens As Oil Whispers And Funding Nerves Stir
The dollar is strengthening beyond oil‑driven moves, as structural funding demand and precautionary positioning emerge across Gulf and Asian markets. Swap‑line requests hint at early‑stage dollar needs not yet reflected in traditional stress metrics. Rising energy prices are delaying the...
Rupee May Weaken Past 94, Oil Surge Wipes Large Part of Relief Rally
The Indian rupee is poised to slip past the 94 per‑dollar mark as oil prices rebound above $100 a barrel, eroding the brief relief rally that saw the currency recover to 92.5 earlier this month. Traders expect the rupee to...
Warsh, Rinse, Repeat
Former Fed governor Kevin Warsh told the Senate Banking Committee he would curtail the Federal Reserve’s forward‑guidance routine, eliminating quarterly Summary of Economic Projections and the dot‑plot, and limiting post‑FOMC press conferences to truly "important" news. He also attacked the...
Flash PMI Gives RBA Reason to Hike
The flash PMI released on 23 April 2026 shows Australia’s business activity stabilising after March’s decline. The composite output index rose to 50.1 from 46.6, while the services PMI jumped to 50.3, indicating the sector’s rebound. Manufacturing PMI edged up to 51.0,...
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A bit more on the GCC swap line puzzle (why the ask, and why is Bessent apparently keen to say yes to a set of countries with tons of assets) There doesn't seem to be any shortage of good collateral (Treasuries)...
RBI Governor Warns of Short‑Term FX Volatility, Monitors FDI Outflows Amid West Asia Crisis
Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra warned that the rupee could face heightened short‑term volatility after a 4% slide since March, and said the central bank is closely tracking foreign direct investment outflows. He reiterated that RBI’s forex interventions...