Know What's Happening in Currencies
Know What's Happening in Currencies
ECB faces binary decision on rates, says Dutch central bank chief
Olaf Sleijpen, president of the Dutch central bank, told a finance podcast that the European Central Bank’s upcoming Governing Council meeting will centre on either raising interest rates further or keeping them unchanged. He noted the discussion will take place in Frankfurt in a few weeks when the board reviews fresh inflation data.
Kevin Warsh’s nomination to replace Jerome Powell places a deeply divided Federal Reserve at a crossroads. Warsh argues the institution needs a revamped analytical framework and a “balance‑sheet theory” rather than a singular focus on rate cuts. He suggests structural reforms to rebuild internal cohesion and external credibility. The debate now centers on how his approach will reshape monetary policy and market expectations.
Italy’s financial regulator CONSOB ordered the blocking of ten websites that were providing unauthorized investment services, including foreign‑exchange and cryptocurrency offerings. The sites targeted include Keyline FX, Solaxy Tech, Po Trade and related advertising domains, and CONSOB also asked Google to remove the...
Eurozone consumer confidence held steady at a final -12.2 in February, matching the preliminary reading. Economic confidence slipped to 98.3, missing forecasts, while industrial confidence fell to -7.1 and services confidence dropped to 5.0, both below expectations. Employment expectations declined...
ECB President Christine Lagarde told reporters her baseline assumption is that she will remain in office until the end of her six‑year term. Analysts note her wording leaves room for an earlier exit, a scenario that has been floated in...
Northern Trust announced the addition of Berenberg’s AI‑driven foreign‑exchange models to its dynamic currency‑hedging framework. The partnership lets institutional clients embed third‑party, model‑based strategies and adjust hedge ratios in real time across the US, UK, Europe, Australia and Canada. By...
Christine Lagarde told the European Parliament that euro‑area inflation has fallen sharply, reaching 1.7% in January and hovering near the ECB’s 2% target. Despite the data, surveys show households still perceive price growth about 1.2 percentage points higher than official...
Alex Mackinnon, CEO of Finalto Asia, argues that regulation has become a catalyst rather than a constraint, enabling the liquidity market to mature and gain trust. He highlights Finalto’s multi‑asset prime brokerage model, which spans equities, commodities, crypto, FX and...
It means a lot less than this. As an export market China is way less important than the US to Germany/ the EA. As a source of consumer & intermediate inputs China is of course a massive supplier,...
The Bank of England’s plan to cap stablecoin holdings is sparking an industry revolt BTW. £5,000 and £20,000 for individuals BTW. £1 million to £10 million for businesses. https://t.co/taO9by7gd2
The New Zealand dollar extended its rally for a third straight session, hovering around the 0.6000 level against the US dollar during Asian trading. The move reflects pressure on the US dollar as President Trump defended tariffs and the IMF warned...
I actually don't think Mark and I are that far apart (tho I wouldn't start by arguing that a BoP deficit is meaningless, as I certainly find value in some cuts of the balance of payments + get annoyed when...
The U.S. Dollar Index slipped to around 97.50 during Asian trading, marking a second straight session of decline amid White House policy doubts. President Donald Trump’s State of the Union remarks defended and expanded Section 122 tariffs to 10 %, adding trade‑related...
Ever take a perfect setup just to watch it go nowhere? Then it moves right after you exit? That's not bad luck - it's bad timing. Learn how to fix that https://t.co/fjBDMYb0AE https://t.co/8b9qHMu9bF
The BIS Triennial Survey shows global foreign‑exchange turnover jumped to US$9.5 trillion per day in April 2025, a 27 % rise driven by heightened volatility, hedging and speculative activity. Spot and outright forwards led the surge, while currency‑option turnover more than doubled and...
This is a thread that only Adam Tooze, a few international economist and a couple of very well paid trade lawyers are likely to enjoy … The basic question is what did Congress mean back in 1975 when they wrote about...
My positioning & stance update on Gold , Dollar , US indexes & Bitcoin 🧵
Meta is planning to introduce stablecoin‑based payments in the second half of 2026 by partnering with a third‑party provider, avoiding the need to issue its own token. The initiative leverages the 2025 GENIUS Act’s regulatory framework, positioning digital dollars as...
The market doesn't trade the same all day. The NY trading day has 5 distinct sessions: → Early NY Open → NY Open → NY Close → Asia Open → London Open Some are continuation trades. Some reversals. Do you agree that market...
The European Central Bank’s Governing Council issued an opinion supporting the EU Council’s proposed candidate, Boris Vujčić, for the next Vice‑President. Vujčić, currently Governor of the Croatian National Bank, will assume the role on 1 June 2026 for a non‑renewable eight‑year term,...
Payoneer has filed an application with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency for a U.S. national trust bank charter, to be branded as PAYO Digital Bank. The charter would let the firm issue, send and receive stablecoins, provide...
The Bank of Thailand cut its benchmark rate to 1.0 % on February 25, 2026, a 25‑basis‑point reduction from 1.25 % and the lowest level since October 2022. The move was unexpected, coming after a similar cut in December and reflecting a revised outlook...
There's lots of buzz about 10-year Treasury yield falling to 4%. But when you look at this yield vs US peers - hedging those yields back into US Dollars - the US picture isn't nearly so sanguine. The days when...
Germany joining the chorus call for China to allow the RMB to rise -- a big change from 15 years ago, when Germany didn't think China's currency management was its problem https://t.co/1J5Z0lrxma
Commerzbank has cautioned that the European Central Bank must step in to nurture a viable euro‑stablecoin ecosystem. The bank argues that without clear regulatory guidance, market participants will remain hesitant, slowing adoption of digital euros. It also stresses the need...
Most EM currencies are managing to rally strongly against the Dollar so far in 2026. Turkish Lira is falling and the worst performer. This despite annual carry of over 30%. The fact that Lira is still falling is a sign...
FYI: as we wait to see if the Trump Administration will move forward with direct attacks on Iran, this is US Dollar - Iranian Rial exchange rate. The reversion to a float since the beginning of the year does not...
The Bank of Japan affirmed its commitment to a gradual policy normalisation path, emphasizing data‑driven decisions despite the appointment of two dovish board nominees. While the new members are expected to voice opposition to tightening, the overall board composition remains...
Outgoing Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic signals greater concern about the institution's independence than the more anodyne statements typically offered by his colleagues when the subject comes up He says there's an ongoing threat and the outcome is genuinely uncertain https://t.co/ntwkE73UgE
The Dollar is tumbling. Not against the G10, where it's basically stable, but against EM, where it's making new lows almost every day. One of the main beneficiaries of all this is the Brazilian Real, which is the strongest versus...
Ahead of Nvidia's earnings, analysts warn that a miss could trigger broader risk aversion, hitting the most exposed G10 currencies such as the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and Norwegian krone. The USD’s reaction will signal whether AI‑related concerns remain confined...
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Iranian rial ranks as the WORLD'S 3RD WORST CURRENCY. The rial has depreciated by 43% against the USD over the past year. RIAL = IN REAL BIG TROUBLE. https://t.co/FmVN6Cuf8I
South Sudan’s government hasn’t produced RELIABLE MONEY SUPPLY DATA since October 2024. SOUTH SUDAN = NO RELIABLE DATA = NO ACCOUNTABILITY. https://t.co/UAqAIjbHdP
EUR/USD has moved into positive territory this week, prompting Elliott Wave analysts to identify a decisive level that could confirm a transition from bearish to bullish dominance. The analysis highlights a key resistance break that may signal the bears relinquishing...
The rolling 40-day (2 month) correlation between $USDJPY and the US-Japan 2-year yield spread has rebound to a stronger positive (+0.6) after 10 months of inversion. Will it just start syncing up or will this gap in carry standing close?...
You can begin factoring national interests and power factors into your preferred free market analysis or you can be a victim of it. https://t.co/bDXsO4Jd8A
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem warned that Canada faces deep structural shifts as U.S. protectionism, rapid AI adoption, and demographic aging reshape the economy. He noted the central bank kept its policy rate at 2¼ % while highlighting heightened uncertainty around...
The policies of the Fed impact economies globally, but that doesn’t mean other central banks have to follow the Fed. If the Fed were to implement surprise rate cuts, the Bank of England should arguably do the exact opposite. My latest...
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the North Korean won ranks as the WORLD'S 2ND WORST CURRENCY. The won has depreciated by over 50% against the USD in the past year. KIM JONG UN'S ANTICS = CURRENCY CATASTROPHE. https://t.co/mODtL8ocdu
U.S. tariff rates surged to an average of 13% in 2025, yet headline inflation fell to 2.7% year‑over‑year before rebounding in December. Companies initially absorbed tariff costs, but recent PCE data shows they are now passing them onto consumers, pushing...
JPY reversing weaker HUF gaining (on negative polls for Orban) CNH continues to rally consistently
The Yen is heading back to where it was before the "rate check" from the NY Fed. Intervention doesn't work, especially when the underlying issue is a massive debt overhang and politicians who prefer denial to taking hard, but needed...
The February 25 10 a.m. New York FX option expiry lists strike levels and notional exposure across major currency pairs. EUR/USD shows the largest notional at the 1.1900 strike with €5.09 billion, while AUD/USD aggregates over AUD 8 billion across four strikes. Market makers must hedge these...
Yen and JGBs Sold on New BOJ Nominees While Japanese Stocks Rally to Record Highs: The dollar was initially sold during President Trump’s State of the Union Address. However, against most of the G10 currencies, it remains within the well-worn...
Turkey had sustained reserve losses towards the end of last year (blue), even though Lira was falling and USD was weak. That's a sign that depreciation pressure is substantial, a reflection of the large current account deficit. Same old story...
CME Group reported a record 36,328,151 open interest contracts in U.S. Treasury futures and options on February 19, surpassing its previous high from November 2025. The milestone spans the entire yield curve, with new peaks in 2‑year, 5‑year, 10‑year, and...
The main development today is the reaction to the two dovish nominations to the BOJ board. The yen and JGBs have been sold, while Japanese stocks raced to record highs. Note there are many large option FX...
"Mine is bigger than yours" "Mine is better than yours" "My Central Bank appointee is more dovish than yours" says Japan PM #Takaichi to #Trump after she picked 2 #reflationist candidates #forex $USDJPY #USDJPY
The European session delivered two key data points: Germany’s preliminary Q4 GDP rose 0.3% quarter‑on‑quarter, beating expectations, and Eurozone CPI showed a 1.7% year‑on‑year headline increase with core inflation at 2.2%. Both releases are final figures that historically have limited...
Christine Lagarde is expected to leave the ECB before her term ends, paving the way for Klaas Knot to succeed her as president, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists https://t.co/rjUbI1zZMG via @jrandow https://t.co/aOgFWMclPG
Bank of America show the biggest positive allocation to #euro assets on record in an impressive global rebalancing. A net 22% say they hold a lower-than-benchmark allocation to US, from just 6% at end of 2025. The backlash appears to...
