Know What's Happening in Currencies
Know What's Happening in Currencies
ECB faces binary decision on rate hike or hold at upcoming meeting
ECB President Olaf Sleijpen said the next Governing Council meeting will focus on whether to raise interest rates further or keep them unchanged, with the discussion slated for Frankfurt in a few weeks as the board reviews fresh inflation data.
The Reserve Bank of India introduced tighter rules on external commercial borrowings to curb volatility in the capital account, even as the current account remains stable. While gross foreign direct investment (FDI) has averaged $78 billion annually, equity repatriation has surged, reducing net inflows. Foreign portfolio investment (FPI) turned negative in FY26, reflecting valuation concerns and competition from developed markets. These shifts pressure the rupee and underscore the need for policy focus on sustainable capital inflows.
Gold surged past the $5,200 per ounce mark, targeting a seventh consecutive monthly gain as investors seek safety amid escalating US‑Iran tensions. The geopolitical flashpoint has revived haven demand, outweighing the muted impact of a weaker US Producer Price Index....
US producer‑price index jumped 0.5% month‑on‑month in January, outpacing expectations and reigniting concerns that inflationary pressures remain entrenched. The surprise lift pushed Dow futures down over 500 points and nudged the 10‑year Treasury yield below the 4% threshold, suggesting markets...
PPI just printed 0.8% vs 0.3% expected. Let that sink in. Producers are paying MORE. That cost gets passed to YOU. This is the hottest PPI in over 6 months and it just killed every rate cut fantasy on Wall Street. Buckle up —...
EUR/JPY slipped to around 184.00 on Friday, marking a second consecutive decline of 0.10%. The drop was driven by a stronger Japanese yen after mixed inflation data showed a 1.6% year‑on‑year rise, with core CPI at 1.8% above expectations. Meanwhile,...
Germany's flash CPI data showed annual inflation easing to 1.9% in February, undercutting the 2% market forecast. The month‑on‑month CPI rose 0.2%, while the ECB’s preferred HICP climbed 0.4% monthly and posted a 2.0% annual rate, also missing expectations. The...
February 27, 2026 📊 Insight: PPI at 8:30 = inflation read for producers. Cooler print could push yields lower and support growth/tech. Hot number likely pressures rates higher and weighs on high-multiple names. Watch $DXY and 10Y reaction first 5–10 mins. Economic...
ECB reported that 444,000 counterfeit euro banknotes were withdrawn in 2025, a 20% drop from the previous year and one of the lowest rates since the euro’s launch. The counterfeit rate fell to 14 per million genuine notes, with €20...
The ECB’s January 2026 Consumer Expectations Survey shows median inflation perception falling to 3.0% and 12‑month inflation expectations dropping to 2.6%, while three‑year expectations hold at 2.6% and five‑year expectations ease to 2.3%. Nominal income‑growth expectations rose to 1.2%, driven...
Forex platform OANDA Corporation has formally ended its long‑standing patent infringement lawsuit against GAIN Capital Holdings. The parties filed a stipulation in New Jersey District Court on February 26, 2026, dismissing all claims and counterclaims with prejudice and agreeing to...
"When the dollar falls in value... it takes more of our dollars to buy stuff from abroad." That’s the basic math of a weaker currency: imports cost more, and so do the everyday items with imported parts. The upside is...
Feeling listless and disjointed as I await the inevitable barrage of "#MMT was right all along" posts now that 10-year Treasury yield has fallen below 4%... https://t.co/ANQCCAXJms
At the Goldman Sachs EMEA Head of Trading conference, FCA chief executive Nikhil Rathi outlined a sweeping reform agenda aimed at cementing the UK’s position as a global wholesale‑finance hub. He highlighted recent regulatory wins – from tighter market‑abuse enforcement...
Taiwan's currency has depreciated even as Taiwan's current account has soared (to 20% in calendar 2025, with 30% expected in 26). But Taiwan is not alone -- the Korean won is also very very weak even as Samsung...
China Central Bank Moves to Tame Yuan Rally—China’s central bank on Friday moved to combat a rally in the yuan by making it cheaper for importers to buy dollars and sell the Chinese currency. @RebeccaYFeng https://t.co/uVx5NuUmDE
China's PBOC will cut the foreign‑exchange risk reserve ratio for forward FX sales from 20% to 0% starting March 2, 2026. The move aims to ease hedging costs, curb excessive yuan appreciation, and signal a shift from emergency policy tools....
The debasement trade is about markets searching for safe havens from debt monetization. That's driving up safe haven currencies. Norwegian Krone just took the lead (orange), while Swedish Krona (red) is in second place. Swiss Franc (black) is in third... https://t.co/hjA5jhrvvn...
An interesting article from Bloomberg -- but one that misses an important part of the real story by following the recent advice of CATO and the WSJ oped page and ignoring the classic split in the balance of payments between...
U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports have coincided with a near‑10% year‑on‑year rise in China’s exports to the EU during 2025, but the surge began before the tariff hike and has not accelerated since. A difference‑in‑differences analysis of over 3,000 product...
US January Producer Price Index prints at 0.5% vs 0.3% expected - previously 0.4% m/m Core #PPI at 0.8% vs expected 0.3% - previously 0.6% m/m Core PPI at 3.6% vs 3.0% expected - previously 3.3% y/y/ Headline PPI 2.9% vs expected 2.6%...
Not a total surprise -- the pace of appreciation was clearly pulling in funds betting on a further rise, and the yuan is heading toward levels where the PBOC has resisted appreciation in the past ... 1/
The new book *Avoid Fiscal & Economic Disaster with Ethics, Economics, and Excellence* by former Fed official Bill Bergman and retired Air Force Lt. Col. Larry Feltes warns that America’s greatest vulnerability is a collapsing trust in its institutions. They...
With all the chatter about AI disruption, I would have expected lower breakeven inflation to be driving the fall in nominal Treasury yields, since AI is a deflationary shock. But that's not what's happening at all. It's real yields that...
After the January sell-off, gold has settled above $5,000. So that sell-off wasn't a sell-off at all, it's a pause. We saw the same thing after the pull-back in October after the IMF/WB meetings. A short pause before the debasement...
Former ICBC chairman Chen Siqing urged China to embed its Cross‑border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) into bilateral trade frameworks, especially with Belt‑Road and RCEP partners, as geopolitical tensions heighten reliance on non‑US payment networks. He highlighted CIPS’s rapid growth, processing...
The Dollar is falling steadily versus EM. Brazil and Mexico are allowing their currencies to rise, but China, Korea, Thailand, Taiwan and Chile are intervening to stop their currencies from rising against the US Dollar. EM currency manipulation is back... https://t.co/4z57KA153r...
$USD consolidation continues, but PBOC eliminates reserve requirements for fx forwards and makes it easier for banks to provide liquidity offshore. Stops yuan rally for the moment. Denmark calls snap election. Greens win in the UK. https://t.co/hLRGJsDgY2...
Kevin Warsh’s nomination to replace Jerome Powell places a deeply divided Federal Reserve at a crossroads. Warsh argues the institution needs a revamped analytical framework and a “balance‑sheet theory” rather than a singular focus on rate cuts. He suggests structural...
In line with our narrowing USD Signal, Global FX Vol continues to fade here https://t.co/sY7hmVcxe3
#FlashbackFriday In 2020, I said PayPal’s Bitcoin move wasn’t about Bitcoin at all, but about positioning for a very different payments landscape. PYUSD has since filled in the blanks. https://t.co/IryLfol0XZ Yesterday’s future. Progress optional. #Stablecoins #Paypal #PYUSD
Italy’s financial regulator CONSOB ordered the blocking of ten websites that were providing unauthorized investment services, including foreign‑exchange and cryptocurrency offerings. The sites targeted include Keyline FX, Solaxy Tech, Po Trade and related advertising domains, and CONSOB also asked Google to remove the...
Hong Kong’s inflation rate comes in at 1.1%/yr in January, JUST A TAD below its de facto 2%/yr inflation target. Hong Kong’s Dollar-Based Currency Board is WORKING LIKE A CHARM. https://t.co/7NNKGjeDXe
China Moves to Tame Yuan Rally by Slashing Shorting Costs—Chinese banks won’t be required to set aside a 20% risk reserve on forward currency trades https://t.co/myGXkMjp6X https://t.co/myGXkMjp6X
Eurozone consumer confidence held steady at a final -12.2 in February, matching the preliminary reading. Economic confidence slipped to 98.3, missing forecasts, while industrial confidence fell to -7.1 and services confidence dropped to 5.0, both below expectations. Employment expectations declined...
In order to have successful capital markets, you see the same things happen again and again. Since one man’s debts are another man’s assets, you have to keep interest rates not so high that they crush the debtor, without having them...
Order Block Model The market moves with structure, not noise. Identify the right Order Block, wait for a clear Break of Structure, and enter with patience. Trade less. Trade smart. #OrderBlock #SmartMoney #PriceAction #ForexTrading #tradingstrategy
ECB President Christine Lagarde told reporters her baseline assumption is that she will remain in office until the end of her six‑year term. Analysts note her wording leaves room for an earlier exit, a scenario that has been floated in...
Swiss Franc Forecast: USD/CHF Five-Week Standoff at 2011 Close Low- Breakout Risk Builds https://t.co/aQbUe8s8GA $USDCHF Weekly Chart https://t.co/IEGfXTQuEv
Canada's January inflation (CPI) is ON TARGET at 2.29%/yr. Canada’s money supply (M3) is growing at 4.02%/yr. That’s a bit below Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of ~6-8%/yr, a rate consistent with Canada's 1-3%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY...
Northern Trust announced the addition of Berenberg’s AI‑driven foreign‑exchange models to its dynamic currency‑hedging framework. The partnership lets institutional clients embed third‑party, model‑based strategies and adjust hedge ratios in real time across the US, UK, Europe, Australia and Canada. By...
That is a very distinct - 'pretty', if you will - rising triangle on the $DXY Dollar Index. Resistance is also the midpoint of the Nov-Jan bear leg of this descending channel. Tech pattern more often resolves with a bullish...
Latest episode of the Trading Global Macro Podcast discusses market sentiment. @MWellerFX and I touch on sentiment surveys, market-based positioning and looser measures (eg headlines, search trends) - and how to integrate it into your market analysis: https://t.co/B06D4S71N8
📈Chart Patterns Ranked by Accuracy % Which patterns work 80% of the time? This is a GOOD one 👇 Make sure you follow/subscribe to @proptraderedge for more great tips like this
My @BrookingsInst blog on whether US reserve currency status is eroding. There’s no sign the fall in the Dollar is accompanied by foreign reserve managers bailing on the greenback. There simply aren’t any viable alternatives, including the Euro… https://t.co/U189pIWHJ4
No other EM has transformed itself in the past decade quite like Brazil, which has shifted its trade balance into a structural surplus. This shift has gotten no recognition in markets whatsoever. The Real remains deeply discounted compared to pre-COVID... https://t.co/1DJ37H8dXi...
The Dollar yesterday made a new post-election low against EM (black line). Except for the tariff turmoil in Apr. '25, USD has been falling in a straight line against EM currencies. This is the best leading indicator for Dollar direction....
Turkey's trade deficit for January - out today - shows further deterioration. Chart below shows the trade deficit every January from 2000 - 2026. The 2026 number is the worst deficit except for 3 prior years (2018, 2022, 2023). This...
After Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Brazil's Real went from $/BRL 6.00 to 4.50 in a few months as rising commodity prices lifted the terms of trade. Now the Real is gaining along with most other EMs as Dollar...
Within the continued consolidation of the FX market, there are two standouts: 1) After being the only G10 currency that fell yesterday, the yen is the only one higher today. 2) the RMB's gains have accelerated. https://t.co/AiTduO3fl9 https://t.co/BxiHf6en8T
The Bank of England’s plan to cap stablecoin holdings is sparking an industry revolt BTW. £5,000 and £20,000 for individuals BTW. £1 million to £10 million for businesses. https://t.co/taO9by7gd2
