Today's Currencies Pulse
Rupee set to slide toward ₹99 as India’s fiscal deficit widens
BofA Securities analyst Rahul Bajoria expects the Indian rupee to weaken to roughly ₹98‑99 per dollar over the next year. He also projects the fiscal deficit for FY27 to expand to 5% of GDP, above the government’s 4.3% target, driven by higher fertilizer subsidies, an excise‑duty cut on fuel and softer tax collections adding about 150 basis points.
USD/CAD Stalls Amid Strait of Hormuz Tensions and Oil‑Driven Loonie Support
The USD/CAD pair slipped a few pips from a three‑day high as heightened Strait of Hormuz tensions supported the US dollar, while higher crude prices lifted the Canadian dollar. Conflicting macro forces – safe‑haven demand for the greenback versus oil‑driven strength for the loonie – left the currency pair in a narrow range.
Roche Q1 Sales Slip 5% to $18.7B as Swiss Franc Gains Offset Drug Gains
Swiss pharma giant Roche posted first‑quarter sales of 14.7 bn Swiss francs ($18.7 bn), a 5% decline driven by adverse foreign‑exchange effects that wiped out underlying growth in its flagship drugs. The company confirmed full‑year targets, while its shares rose about 2%...
Euro Rises to $1.17 as US‑Iran Talks Revive Risk Appetite
EUR/USD rebounded to 1.1715, up 0.27%, after news that President Donald Trump dispatched envoys to Pakistan for renewed US‑Iran talks. The move eased the U.S. dollar index and revived risk‑on sentiment in currency markets.
Global Rates: Central Banks Likely to Wait-and-See Against a Backdrop of Ongoing Middle-East Uncertainty
The episode examines upcoming policy meetings of the Fed, ECB, and BoE against the backdrop of the Middle‑East conflict and rising energy prices. Analysts attribute the US rate rise to solid consumption data and a dovish‑leaning Fed nominee, Kevin Warsh,...
We Urgently Need to Talk About Swap Lines
Izabella Kaminska’s latest Blind Spot piece warns that the current debate over dollar‑swap lines is more than a sovereign’s plea for liquidity—it is a window into the hidden mechanics of global finance. She argues that swap lines reveal who still...
Morningstar DBRS Confirms Czech Republic at AA, Stable Trend
Morningstar DBRS confirmed the Czech Republic’s long‑term sovereign rating at AA and its short‑term rating at R‑1 (high), keeping the trend stable. The agency cites a solid 2.2% GDP growth outlook through 2027, a modest fiscal deficit of 2.1% of...
Next Week’s Menu: April 25 – May 1, 2026
A packed week of monetary‑policy meetings is slated for the United States, Japan, the Eurozone, the United Kingdom, Canada, Hungary, Ukraine, Thailand, Brazil, Pakistan and Kyrgyzstan, with post‑meeting press conferences from Fed Chair Powell, BoJ Governor Ueda, BoC Governor Macklem...
UAE USD Swap Lines May Fund China Investments
So…will the USD swap lines Bessent is going to give UAE going to finance the UAE’s newly-signed investments in China? Or are the USD swap lines so UAE doesn’t have to sell USTs to make these investments in China? Or do the...
Global Central Banks Decisions Highlight Next Week's Calendar: Market Volatility Ahead
Global central banks will dominate the week, starting with the Bank of Japan’s policy decision on Monday and culminating in a packed Thursday of Bank of England, European Central Bank and key U.S. data releases. The Federal Reserve and Bank...
Forex Reserves Rise to $703 Billion; Rupee Slips 14 Paise
India's foreign exchange reserves jumped $2.3 billion to $703 billion in the week ending April 17, driven by higher foreign‑currency assets and a revaluation of dollar holdings. The rupee slipped 14 paise, closing at 94.25 per dollar, as foreign investors and private oil firms...
Discipline Required; Impatient Traders Lose to Smart Money
No discipline = no profits. This setup shows how smart money traps impatient traders using inducement and liquidity. If you don’t wait… you lose. Learn the game. Master the edge. #ForexReels #TradingSetup #SmartMoneyForex #ICTModel #reels
ECB Sets Payment Standards for Digital Euro Rollout
The European Central Bank has signed agreements with three standards bodies to establish open technical standards for the digital euro, keeping the project on track for a pilot in 2027 and a potential launch in 2029. The standards—CPACE for contactless...
USDJPY Falls to New Lows. Retests 100 Hour MA
USDJPY is testing the 100‑hour moving average at 159.347, signaling fresh bearish pressure. The 10‑year Treasury yield has slipped about two basis points to roughly 4.30%, providing a modest floor that tempers the dollar's decline. A break below the 200‑hour...
GBP/USD Holds Above Two‑Week Low as Iran‑Driven USD Demand Persists
United Overseas Bank strategists say GBP/USD is consolidating between 1.3475 and 1.3530 after slipping to a two‑week low. The pair’s flat momentum reflects safe‑haven buying of the dollar amid heightened Iran‑related tensions, keeping the pound just above its recent trough.
How a Swap Line for Persian Gulf Allies Would Break with the Past
The Federal Reserve is considering extending dollar swap lines to Persian Gulf allies such as the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Bahrain, a departure from its traditional use as a crisis‑management tool for G7 and select emerging markets. Treasury Secretary...
Middle East Stasis Set to Keep Fed on Hold at Chair Powell’s Swan Song
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s term ends on May 15, but he has signaled he may remain chair pro tempore amid political friction with the White House. The April FOMC meeting is expected to hold rates steady, with Fed funds futures...
Chhangani’s CIPS Data and Lipsky Cited in NY Times Article
The New York Times cited Atlantic Council experts Alisha Chhangani and Josh Lipsky in a piece on China’s Cross‑Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) and its growing role in Iran’s trade. Chhangani’s data show CIPS transaction volumes with Iran surged to...
Donovan and Nikoladze Cited in FXStreet Article Stating that Central Banks Building up Gold Reserves to Shield From Sanctions or...
In a recent FXStreet analysis, Atlantic Council experts Kimberly Donovan and Maia Nikoladze highlighted a surge in central‑bank gold purchases. They argue that banks are stockpiling the metal to hedge against potential sanctions and a looming financial crisis. The commentary...
Banque De France Governor François Villeroy De Galhau’s Speech From the Atlantic Council Featured in Banque De France Article
Banque de France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau delivered a speech at the Atlantic Council that was subsequently highlighted in a dedicated Banque de France article. He underscored the strategic value of a robust transatlantic partnership for monetary stability, digital‑currency...
Another Russian Central Bank Rate Cut
The Russian Central Bank lowered its key rate by 50 basis points to 14.5%, marking the fifth reduction since October and a cumulative 650‑basis‑point cut since the June 2025 easing cycle began. Despite the cut, the policy rate remains well above...
Philippine Peso Drops to 60.70 per Dollar After BSP Raises Rate to 4.5%
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) raised its benchmark policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.5% on Thursday. The move pushed the Philippine peso to P60.70 per U.S. dollar, its weakest level in a month, and sparked a sell‑off...
Primevex Rolls Out Unified Trading Platform for Seamless Multi‑Device Access
Primevex has introduced a unified trading platform that synchronizes positions, settings and account activity across web, mobile and tablet. The service delivers CFD access to stocks, indices, forex, energy, soft commodities and precious metals through a single regulated account, targeting...
Geopolitical Whispers Fuel Market Volatility Ahead of Central Bank Decisions
Iran headlines are driving everything today $DXY pulled back hard off its highs $SPX whipsawing $CL all over the place No US data on the calendar, so every geopolitical whisper is moving markets. Add Israel/Lebanon missiles and China restricting US tech investment...
EC Markets Q1 2026 Trading Volumes Hit Record $5.13 Trillion
EC Markets reported a record $5.13 trillion in trading volume for Q1 2026, a 14.6% rise from the prior quarter. Daily average volume climbed to $81.4 billion and active traders expanded to 272,000, up 18.3%. Non‑FX assets now represent 98% of activity, underscoring the...
Dollar Eases as US–Iran Talk Hopes Rise, Markets on Guard for Weekend Risk
The dollar eased after reports that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi will travel to Islamabad, suggesting a thaw in U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks. Traders trimmed defensive positions, and Brent crude slipped to around $105 per barrel from a brief $108 peak....
National Bank of Hungary Preview: The Chance of a Cut This Year Has Vanished
The National Bank of Hungary (NBH) is expected to leave its policy rate at 6.25% through the end of 2026, as geopolitical uncertainty and post‑election fiscal questions limit flexibility. A recent removal of forward‑guidance language signals a more hawkish stance,...
Will China’s Deal with Australian Mining Giant BHP Boost Yuan Internationalisation?
Australian miner BHP has agreed to price its flagship Jimblebar fines using a blended formula that weights 51% of the price on yuan‑denominated indexes and 49% on traditional US‑dollar benchmarks. The move incorporates China’s own market‑trade data for the first...
Kazakhstan Holds Rates, Indicates Room for Cuts
Kazakhstan’s National Bank left its benchmark rate unchanged at 18.00% on April 24, reaffirming a conditional easing stance for the second half of 2026. The central bank highlighted a slowdown in CPI to 11.0% YoY and a dip in 1Q...
Bank of England Likely to Keep Rates on Hold as Markets Ramp up Hike Bets
The Bank of England is expected to keep its policy rate at 3.75% during the April meeting, despite markets pricing in two hikes by year‑end. Governor Andrew Bailey warned investors they were “getting ahead of themselves,” and the BoE appears...
Russia's Central Bank Lowers Rate To
MOSCOW, April 24 (Reuters) - The Russian central bank reduced its key rate by 50 basis points to 14.5% on Friday, as expected by analysts, despite pressure from businesses to cut faster in order to boost the economy, which contracted...
Bessent Open to Fed Chair, Not Elected Office
Bessent says he has no ambition to run for office but “wouldn’t say ‘no’ to being Fed chair later.” “There’s no election involved. You can shape the economy, and it’s an institution.” https://t.co/3lx7XrYMiD
USD/JPY Nears 160 as Dollar Strength and Intervention Fears Clash
The USD/JPY pair rose to 159.75, closing in on the 160 psychological level, driven by broad US dollar strength, rising oil prices, and bullish technical signals. Traders now weigh the upside momentum against the risk of Japanese authorities stepping in...
Central Banks Pivot to Demand‑driven Liquidity, Warsh Aligns
With Kevin Warsh's nomination locked in, here's my recent take on central banks' growing shift from supply-driven ample reserves to demand-driven liquidity frameworks. The best version of Warsh's balance sheet ambitions would follow this trend.
Money Supply Surge Outpaces Golden Growth, Fuels Inflation
My take on @PalisadesRadio on America’s inflation problem: "The US will have trouble getting the inflation genie back in the bottle because the money supply has been accelerating for 18 months, growing faster than Hanke's Golden Growth Rate." https://t.co/0f14uwnTFx
Rupee Logs Steepest Weekly Drop in over Three Years as Iran War Worries Resurface
The Indian rupee fell 1.4% to 94.2475 per dollar, marking its steepest weekly decline since September 2022. The slide was triggered by renewed worries that the U.S.–Iran ceasefire could collapse, pushing Brent crude up 2% to $107 per barrel. RBI’s short‑term...
Fed and Central Banks Ignoring Money Supply Theory
My view in @KitcoNewsNOW on the Fed's DISREGARD for the Quantity Theory of Money: “The Fed doesn't look at changes in the money supply, & the Fed’s not alone. Most central banks discard the money supply." Central bankers should give Sekerke &...
US Market Not Top‑Heavy; Dollar Still Reserve Power
Two myths that aren't true 1.) The US stock market is top heavy 2.) The US Dollar is losing reserve status Neither are remotely true, yet we hear them all the time https://t.co/ONyZtCOXpe
India's FY26 Growth Forecast Slashed to 5.9% as West Asia War and Tariff Doubts Bite
Goldman Sachs and Moody’s cut India’s FY26 growth projection to 5.9%–6% after the Iran‑Israel war drove energy prices higher and trade‑policy doubts resurfaced. RBI policymakers kept the repo rate at 5.25% citing the same geopolitical shock, warning that prolonged supply‑side...
US Deficit Ballooning as Fed Expands Balance Sheet
I know there is a lot going on with a lot of headlines (US-Iran, monetary policy, consumer confidence, etc); but worth remembering the ballooning US deficit and efforts to facilitate it (like the Fed balance sheet) still matter: https://t.co/4H1YDnmu7Y
Cease‑fire Stalls Dollar, Hints at Upcoming Decline
Last week’s (week of 4/13) cease fire in the Middle East helped keep the bond market calm and the dollar from surpassing resistance at 100-10. The fact that the dollar’s gains were less than impressive suggests that the next major...
ECB Steps up Its Challenge to Visa and Mastercard
The European Central Bank is intensifying its scrutiny of Visa and Mastercard over high interchange fees and limited competition in the euro‑area payments market. By leveraging new supervisory powers, the ECB plans to conduct a formal investigation and may propose...
USDJPY: The Overlooked Market Driver You Need
I think USDJPY is one of the most important variables in the market right now that is flying under the radar. I discuss it in length here👇
Hidden Forces Eroding the Foundation of Dollar Dominance
Interesting thread that makes the case for what @sobel_mark calls the "termites feasting away at the foundation of dollar dominance". Should give us pause... (1/2)
Indian Rupee Slides to 10‑Year Low as Oil Prices Surge and Iran War Fuels Outflows
The Indian rupee slipped to a 10‑year trough of 94.25 per U.S. dollar, driven by a surge in crude oil prices above $105 a barrel and heightened capital outflows linked to the Iran conflict. The slide marks a 4.5% depreciation...
Tooze Delivers Concise History of the Exchange Stabilization Fund
Tooze is on a roll -- great instant history of the Exchange Stabilization Fund 1/2
FOMC Slashes Rates 75 Bps to 3.5%
January 22, 2008. The Federal Open Market Committee has decided to lower its target for the federal funds rate 75 basis points to 3-1/2 percent...Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice...
Expect Powell to Dodge Political Pressure at Final Press Conference
I would like to hear Powell's unvarnished opinion on political pressure on the Fed next week in his final press conference following the FOMC decision...but I suspect he will abstain do to 'respect for the office' or some such
Central Banks Sing the President’s Tune, Not Independent
If the job interview is "Will you do my bidding?" the answer isn't central bank independence. It's central bank karaoke: the chair just sings the president's tune. https://t.co/YFiILGZPvR
USD Swap Lines Misunderstood: Liquidity Shakedowns Explained
Two-part compendium from me on why everyone is getting the wrong end of the stick on USD swap lines and how liquidity shakedowns really work with asset-rich sovereigns. First piece here: https://t.co/DkaYPexxOU https://t.co/2wWxKXkaWz
Kazimir Suggests Modest ECB Hike Due to Iran War
Kazimir says a slight ECB rate increase may be necessary on the Iran war https://t.co/E3r6aKNNHQ via @Dan_Hornak https://t.co/G5jKSecgTk