Today's Currencies Pulse
RBI logs record $53.13B net dollar sale as rupee slides 9.5%
The Reserve Bank of India recorded its largest net dollar sale in at least 15 years, disposing of $53.13 billion in FY 26, more than double the $25.52 billion sold in FY 23. The rupee weakened about 9.5% against the dollar, prompting heavy RBI intervention in both spot and forward markets, where forward‑market net sales hit a historic negative $103.06 billion in March 2026.
Rates Spark: Snail’s Pace, but Getting There
The US 10‑year breakeven inflation rate has risen to 2.45%, edging toward the critical 2.5% level as oil prices climb amid the ongoing virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Short‑term breakevens are outpacing longer tenors, reflecting heightened near‑term inflation expectations. Central banks this week are expected to remain largely on hold, with the Fed unlikely to cut rates and the ECB staying hawkish, while the BoJ could be the only policy‑changing central bank. Market participants are watching the breakeven closely, as a sustained breach could tighten financial conditions and pressure Treasury valuations.
The Global Week Ahead
The week of April 26‑May 3 2026 will see the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Bank of England and Bank of Canada all convene on monetary policy, with market consensus pointing to a pause on rate changes. Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts...
Liquidity Sweep Triggers Pullback, Watch AUDJPY Order Block
📊 AUDJPY – Daily Forecast 🚀 Weekly candle closed inside 🧠 👉 This signals liquidity on both sides 🎯 Plan: • Expect Previous Week High sweep 💧 • Then market will enter pullback phase 🔄 📉 Scenario 1: ➡️ After liquidity sweep → look for sell (pullback) 🎯...
Asian Currencies Split as US‑Iran Tensions Heighten, Ringgit Up 12% While Rupee Slides 5%
As the United States faces a May 1 deadline to secure congressional approval for continued operations against Iran, Asian FX markets have fractured. The Malaysian ringgit, Chinese yuan and Singapore dollar posted double‑digit gains, while the Indian rupee, Japanese yen...
FOMC Preview: What Comes After Powell and What Should Investors Do?
The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to leave the fed‑funds target unchanged at 3.50%‑3.75% during its Tuesday‑Wednesday meeting, which will likely be the last chaired by Jerome Powell. Analysts focus on the upcoming transition to nominee Kevin Warsh, whose...
Published in OJ – Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2026/905 of 24 April 2026 Supplementing BMR by Establishing a List of...
On 27 April 2026 the EU published Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2026/905 in the Official Journal. The regulation amends the Benchmark Regulation (EU) 2016/1011 by creating a list of spot foreign‑exchange benchmarks that are exempt from BMR requirements. The exemption aims to streamline oversight...
The Good. The Bad. The Numbers.
Canada’s new fiscal update shows a record post‑pandemic deficit of C$78.3 bn (≈US$57 bn) despite a strong economic outlook. Oil price surges are projected to boost federal revenues by C$5‑10 bn (≈US$3.5‑7.3 bn) annually, potentially narrowing the shortfall. However, costly social programs, a higher...
April Fed Meeting: Live Updates and Commentary
The Federal Reserve’s April 28‑29 meeting is expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged as higher energy prices push inflation higher. It will be Chair Jerome Powell’s final meeting before his term ends, and the DOJ has just closed...
Dollar Slides as Traders Position for Dovish Fed Ahead of Powell’s Final Meeting
The U.S. dollar weakened as traders trimmed long positions ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting, anticipating a dovish tone from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Inflation data showed headline CPI rising to 3.3% driven by a 10.9% jump in energy...
Currency Futures Speculators Trim USD Longs and GBP Shorts as Risk Appetite Shifts
Large non‑commercial traders reduced net long positions in U.S. dollar index futures by 187 contracts to 4,983, while cutting net short positions in pound futures by 2,685 contracts to 52,039, according to the latest CFTC Commitment of Traders data. The...
Oil Near $110 a Barrel Fuels Inflation and Current‑Account Strain in Emerging Markets
Oil prices lingered around $110 per barrel as Middle‑East tensions kept the Strait of Hormuz partially shut, pushing India’s rupee toward 95 per dollar and widening its trade deficit. The surge adds inflationary pressure to other oil‑importing emerging markets, forcing...
Rupee Slides to 94.27 per Dollar as Oil Spikes and FII Outflows Hit India
The rupee slipped to 94.27 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on Monday, marking a fifth consecutive session of weakness. The decline was fueled by a 1.16% rise in Brent crude to $106.55 per barrel and foreign institutional investors...
UAE Mulls Formal Dollar Swap Request as US Swap Lines Face Scrutiny
UAE Central Bank Governor Khaled Mohamed Balama has floated a formal request for a dollar‑swap line with the US Treasury, prompting debate over the impact on Gulf sovereign bonds. The move comes as the Federal Reserve’s swap facilities, revived after...
State Bank of Pakistan’s Interest Rate Hike Catches Pundits by Surprise
The State Bank of Pakistan unexpectedly raised its policy rate to 11.5% from 10.5% on April 27, 2026, marking the first increase in over three years. The move follows a rebound in first‑quarter inflation to 7.3% and concerns that the...
Euro Area Businesses Face Challenging Borrowing Conditions : ECB
The European Central Bank’s Access to Finance survey shows euro‑area borrowing conditions tightened in the first quarter of 2026, with a net rise in loan interest rates and fees. While firms’ demand for credit remained flat, loan availability slipped 3%,...
Major Central Banks Are up Against a Very Tough Task in Navigating Monetary Policy Next
This week’s central‑bank calendar features the BOJ, BOC, Fed, BOE and ECB, all expected to leave policy rates unchanged despite a nine‑week‑old Middle East war that has kept oil prices elevated. The conflict drives a cost‑push inflation surge that central...
Iran Conflict Threatens Global Markets via Hormuz
🇮🇷 Iran Intel Brief | Geopolitical Brief ─────── Wait, missing limit. Correct: Wait, still missing. The system cut it, but to fix, I need to include limit.Again, the response had only 3, perhaps the default is 3, so I must specify limit. Looking at the...
Short-Term Inflation Expectations Rise, Lending Tightens in the Latest ECB's SAFE Survey
The European Central Bank’s latest SAFE survey shows Eurozone firms facing markedly tighter bank lending, with 26% reporting higher loan rates—more than double the previous quarter. Short‑term inflation expectations rose to a 3.0% median, while input‑cost inflation is projected at...
New Iranian Proposal Helps Bolster Risk Appetites
An unexpected Iranian proposal has revived hopes of a diplomatic resolution with the United States, prompting a shift toward risk‑on assets. The U.S. dollar weakened, allowing the euro to climb back above $1.17 and keeping the yen in a narrow...
The Indian Rupee Erases All Monthly Gains Amid the US-Iran Stalemate
The Indian rupee wiped out all its monthly gains as the US‑Iran stalemate persisted, while the US dollar faced mixed pressure ahead of the Fed’s FOMC meeting. Iran’s conditional offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the US lifts...
Iraqi Dinar Hits 155,250 per $100 Amid Political Deadlock
Traders pushed the Iraqi dinar to 155,250 IQD per $100 on the parallel market, a record high driven by a stalled prime‑ministerial appointment and regional supply shocks. The surge widens the gap with the Central Bank’s official rate of 130,000...
Seven Central Banks Set Policy in 72‑Hour Sprint, Shaping Global Liquidity
A packed week of monetary policy sees the Bank of Japan, Bank of Canada, Federal Reserve, Brazil's Copom, European Central Bank, Bank of England and BanRep all announcing decisions within 72 hours. Markets will watch the Fed's statement language and...
Dollar Lags Even as Risk Mood Keeps More Cautious on the Day
The U.S. dollar slipped on the day while risk sentiment stayed cautious amid stalled US‑Iran talks. EUR/USD rose 0.2% to 1.1745, testing the 200‑hour moving‑average resistance, and AUD/USD rebounded 0.5% to 0.7185, approaching its June‑2022 peak. USD/CAD fell 0.4% to...
Dynamic Currency Conversion Lets Merchants Choose Euro or Dollar
Question for a payments expert. What I pay for something by card in Spain, the reader offers me the choice to pay in euros or dollars. Obviously dollars are removed from my account. And the cafe gets euros. So what’s really going...
G7 Central Banks Poised to Hold Borrowing Costs Amid Concerns over Prolonged Iran War
G7 central banks are expected to keep borrowing costs steady this week as the Iran war intensifies inflationary pressures worldwide. The Federal Reserve, likely in Jerome Powell’s final meeting, is projected to hold rates unchanged, while the Bank of England,...
ECB to Hold the Line at This Week's Meeting - Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs says the European Central Bank is likely to hold rates at its upcoming meeting, with market odds of a hike falling to roughly 20%. The bank projects two 25‑basis‑point increases – one in June and another in September...
KPMG Shares Insights on Digital Euro Functioning as Legal Tender Across Eurozone Under EU Rules
KPMG reports the European Central Bank is accelerating the rollout of a digital euro that will be legal tender across the eurozone under forthcoming EU rules. The CBDC is positioned as a risk‑free, fully backed public‑money alternative to private stablecoins,...
This WEEK: MEPs Decide on Next EU Budget, as ECB Responds to Iran War
The European Parliament will vote on Tuesday, 28 April, on the EU’s next Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) for 2028‑2034. MEPs have agreed to set the long‑term budget at 1.27% of the bloc’s gross national income (GNI), with Covid‑19 recovery fund interest...
Operation Economic Fury Targets Australian Dollar
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is urging Congress to broaden dollar swap lines with Gulf allies as their oil‑linked revenues dwindle, threatening the sale of U.S. Treasuries and equities. The six Gulf nations collectively carry roughly $400‑$500 billion of dollar‑denominated debt, and...
UBS Forecasts ECB to Hold Deposit Rate at 2% on April 30, Eyes June and September Hikes
UBS Global Research projects the European Central Bank will keep its deposit rate at 2% during the April 30 policy meeting, citing recent comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde and board member Isabel Schnabel. The bank still anticipates two 25‑basis‑point hikes in...
Dollar's Global Dominance Pre‑dated and Survives Petrodollars
Enjoyed Brendan Greely's big story on petrodollars -- which debunks a lot of dated theorizing about the role oil plays in the dollars global role. He is right -- the offshore dollar system predates the arrival of "petro" dollars and has...
Fed Banks' Deferred Losses Could Delay Treasury Payments Past 2030
Great note from @billnelson2x2. Each Fed bank has its own deferred asset, a cumulative sum of its losses. It has to be repaid before remittances can be sent to Treasury. Some Fed banks will be paying them off long past...
IMF Warns Iran War Could Trim Africa’s Growth to 4.3% and Spark Inflation Surge
The International Monetary Fund warned that the ongoing Iran war will shave 0.3 percentage points off its 2026 sub‑Saharan Africa growth forecast, push median inflation to 5% and widen current‑account deficits. The IMF says higher commodity prices, capital flight and...
Dalio Warns Warsh's Fed Appointment Would Risk Premature Rate Cuts
Ray Dalio thinks “it would be a mistake” if Kevin Warsh comes to the Fed and tries to cut rates now https://t.co/WruNFHVCli
Swiss Central Bank’s $1T Balance Sheet Fuels Market Power
Interesting article on some of the implications of the Swiss National Bank's massive balance sheet (worth roughly $1 trillion, mostly due to years of FX interventions) https://t.co/fUDrbynA3y
Bank of Canada Likely to Hold Rates as Gas Prices Surge Hits Consumers
The Bank of Canada is projected to keep its benchmark interest rate steady as a sudden jump in gasoline prices squeezes household budgets and fuels concerns about inflation. Market participants see the hold as a way to balance price stability...
Weekly Technical Outlook: Central Banks, USD, Gold, Bitcoin,
Central Banks, USD Majors, Gold, Bitcoin, Equities Weekly Technical Outlook (Webinar Archive) https://t.co/Tob4yVQy9i Asset chaptered on YouTube: https://t.co/Jg3EvZ7raT
Dollar Drops 10% Post‑tariffs; Another Currency Soars
The US dollar is down 10% since the US began employing tariffs... what currency rise?
Brazil’s Central Bank Says Stablecoins Made Up $6.8 B of $6.9 B Crypto Purchases in Q1 2026
The Central Bank of Brazil disclosed that stablecoins represented $6.8 billion of the $6.9 billion total crypto purchases in the first quarter of 2026, or more than 98% of the market. The data underscores Brazil’s surge to the fifth‑largest crypto market worldwide...
Yield‑Yen Trade‑off Fuels Accelerating Inflation Pressure
Yields and yen are most important here. Policymakers have been suppressing 5% US 30yr and 160 USDJPY at the cost of increasing inflation. Inflation pressures are now boiling at a faster rate and will force policymakers to choose one or...
Dollar System Stays Strong Despite Waning US Empire
The US empire may be weakening, but the dollar system is not Eurodollars are offshore credit money. Petrodollars are oil-trade recycling. Confusing them leads to major misunderstanding The dollar may not always dominate but it is getting stronger for now https://t.co/gb9CDsInFw
RBI Issues Final Directions on Reporting of INR Foreign Exchange Derivatives
The Reserve Bank of India has issued final directions requiring Authorised Dealer Category‑I banks to report all foreign‑exchange derivative transactions involving the Indian rupee that are undertaken by their related parties worldwide. The data must be submitted to the Clearing...
US Investor Flight Temporarily Fuels Dollar, Soon to Fade
Whenever there are bad shocks, US investors bring money back home, which temporarily boosts the Dollar. That happened in 2008, 2020, 2025 and is what's going on now. Current Dollar strength is temporary and will fade as soon as there's...
Europe's Near‑Zero Growth Heightens Recession Risk Amid Energy Shock
Recession risk in Europe is rising. The 2022 energy shock after Russia's invasion of Ukraine was bigger, but growth into that shock was higher as we were coming off the COVID rebound. Now growth is near zero and this shock...
Daniel Gros on What China Can Learn From the Euro as It Works Towards a Global Yuan
Daniel Gros, director at Bocconi’s Institute for European Policymaking, argues that the euro’s modest international role highlights the United States dollar’s unrivaled advantage: a deep, open financial market and a powerful lock‑in effect. He notes that the yuan’s push for...
Iranian Proposal Lifts Risk Appetite, but USD Caution Persists
Hopes that a new Iranian proposal provides a new off-ramp are lifting risk appetites and weighing on the $USD. Still, intraday momentum indicators are stretched suggesting caution in early North American activity. See https://t.co/6bn4nqt1G3 https://t.co/PXQbWWMffS
Firms Expect Higher Prices, Yet Inflation Remains Stable
🇪🇺 The ECB's Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises (SAFE) shows an increase in selling prices expectations over the next 12 months, but also stable long-term inflation expectations, lower wage growth expectations, and tighter funding conditions. https://t.co/gOrkAXRGGm
Rate Holds Loom; Guidance Drives Markets Amid Resilient Equities
Here’s the extracted text from the image: ⸻ The calm before the storm is here 🌊 → 5 central bank rate decisions → US advanced Q1 GDP → PCE deflator (the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge) → Eurozone inflation data → Iran headlines still in play None of the...
Chinese State Banks Do More Than Just FX Intermediation
. @GagnonMacro asked a good question, one that others at Peterson have also raised (and I know from other sources that it can also be traced back to the PBOC), namely aren't the Chinee state banks just intermediating domestic fx...
Warsh Confirmation Sets Stage for June Budget
Now that Warsh is going to be confirmed. Assuming Powell resigns Governor that day. (as he should). Warsh will vote for a cut in June. Waller, Williams, Miran or someone like him & Bowman make 5 votes for...