Today's Currencies Pulse
RBI logs record $53.13B net dollar sale as rupee slides 9.5%
The Reserve Bank of India recorded its largest net dollar sale in at least 15 years, disposing of $53.13 billion in FY 26, more than double the $25.52 billion sold in FY 23. The rupee weakened about 9.5% against the dollar, prompting heavy RBI intervention in both spot and forward markets, where forward‑market net sales hit a historic negative $103.06 billion in March 2026.
Inside the Fed's Balance Sheet
A new video and podcast interview with finance professor Darrell Duffie examines the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. Duffie draws on his recent paper to explain how the Fed’s roughly $8 trillion asset base shapes the U.S. payments system and monetary policy. The conversation highlights the growing importance of interest on reserves and the prospect of future balance‑sheet adjustments. The interview is part of Hoover’s Freedom Frequency series and is now available online.
Low
Discipline low = mistakes high. This chart shows: Liquidity → CHoCH → OB → Drop That’s the real model. Follow for real setups. #Forex #Trading #SmartMoney #ICT #smc
FOMC Preview
The Federal Reserve is expected to leave its benchmark rate unchanged at the 3.5‑3.75% target range as the Middle‑East conflict drags on, keeping oil prices about 7% higher than in March. Inflation forecasts have been nudged upward while economic activity...
Australia's CPI Jumps to 4.6% as Energy Shock Fuels RBA Rate Hike Odds
Australia's consumer price index surged to 4.6% year‑over‑year in March, the highest reading since September 2023, driven by a 32.8% jump in fuel prices. The data has pushed market expectations for a third consecutive RBA cash‑rate increase to around 75%,...
Yen Breaches 160/$: Markets Test Policy Limits
It's not just oil, UK yields, etc... In fact, the pace is starting to feel a little relentless as markets blow through what I regard as various "pay attention" levels. This includes the breach of 160 ¥/$ (CNBC chart below)....
Canada Yields Rise Independently of Recent Rate Cuts
when they tell you that Canadian rates (yields) are rising and the @bankofcanada is all to blame, just tell'em they're wrong... 5-year Canada yields bottomed in '20 (like global yields) they spent the past few years consolidating and are now moving...
Bank of Canada Neutral Hold (2.25%) – USD/CAD Rallies to 1.37 – Press Con...
The Bank of Canada left its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% for the fourth meeting since October 2025, reiterating a neutral stance amid a modest economic outlook. It continued to base its forecasts on a C$75‑per‑barrel oil price, roughly US$55,...
Dollar Rise Triggers Endless Loop of Economic Paradoxes
The dollar is rising Why? Because bond yields are going up Why? Because Oil prices are rising Why? Because the UAE left OPEC Why? Because Trump blocked Hormuz Why? Because the dollar is falling Why? Because real interest rates are negative Why? Because inflation is rising Why? Because - Damn it - Don't you get it...
War‑Driven Inflation Undermines BoC Rate Hike Effectiveness
Bank Of Canada: NO CHANGE This was a guaranteed result: there was never a doubt Bank Of Canada: NO CHANGE This was a guaranteed result: there was never a doubt It's so simple, the War In The Middle East creates inflation The BoC...
Ghana Cedi Volatility Linked to Extractive Sector Leakages as Gold Board Posts $455 M Surplus
Joe Jackson, CEO of Dalex Finance, warned that Ghana’s cedi volatility is driven by foreign‑exchange leakages in mining and oil rather than weak exports. The Ghana Gold Board’s 2025 surplus of GH₵5.46 bn (≈$455 m) underscores the sector’s growing fiscal weight, while...
Emerging Markets Shift to Gold as Dollar Reserves Shrink
Deutsche’s George Saravelos highlights today that “the share of US dollars in central bank reserves is once more in decline. It has fallen from over 60% to just 40%, while gold’s share has tripled from its lows to 30% today.” And: “...
Seized USDJPY Breakout, Earned +6.39R Profit
Caught a great opportunity in USDJPY yesterday morning. Sharp drop on the BoJ announcement flushed support, then recaptured it. Bid the HoH, right into the level, stop below. Closed just now on the breakout of D1 resistance for +6.39R. Sorry for being...
US Fed Meeting 2026 LIVE: US Fed Meet Outcome at 11.30 Pm Today — All Eyes on Powell's Last Speech...
The Federal Reserve concluded its two‑day April meeting on 29 April, with Chair Jerome Powell expected to announce that the federal‑funds rate will remain in the 3.5‑3.75% target range for a third consecutive session. Powell’s remarks are likely to be his...
Fed Holds Rates Hawkishly, Blames Iran War
🚨 FED DAY PLAYBOOK 🚨 3 things we KNOW happen today: ✅ No rate cut ✅ Hawkish hold ✅ Powell blames Iran war for global uncertainty The wild cards 👇 ❓ Does he stay on as a Fed governor? ❓ Inflation worry vs. growth...
Predicting Fed Tone: Green Gains vs Red Declines
Do you see more GREEN or RED 👀 Before every Fed meeting, I build a table comparing how the economy has shifted since the last one to gauge the likely tone. 🟢 Green = improvement 🔴 Red = deterioration So with that in mind…...
Enhanced Monetary Policy Committee Transparency Changes Announced
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is amending its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Charter to attribute individual members' votes and publicly record material differences of view, effective with the May 2026 policy statement. The changes encourage members to express their economic...
Powell’s Last Meeting
Jerome Powell is set to leave the Federal Reserve after his term ends May 15, with the FOMC likely holding rates at 3.50‑3.75%. The article argues that despite political criticism of “tight” policy, the Fed under Powell pursued the easiest monetary...
Powell's Final Press Conference Could Signal Fed Pivot
Jerome Powell is set to deliver his final FOMC press conference as Fed Chair today, alongside a key interest rate decision at 2PM ET. Markets are on edge as investors look for signals on inflation, rate cuts, and the future path...
Indian Rupee Slides as Oil Prices Surge, Losing 3.5% Since West Asia Conflict
The Indian rupee weakened by roughly 3.5% against the U.S. dollar after crude oil prices jumped from $63 to above $114 per barrel, a shift tied to the West Asia war. Reserve Bank of India officials warned of heightened external...
Norwegian 1000-Krone Banknote: Remains as Legal Tender, but Banks Can No Longer Order New
Norway’s central bank announced that the 1000‑krone note, worth roughly $100, will stay legal tender but banks can no longer order fresh copies. Existing notes will gradually disappear as they are withdrawn from circulation. Norges Bank emphasized cash’s role as...
What Blockchain Does the Digital Yuan Use?
China’s digital yuan runs on a purpose‑built, permissioned blockchain rather than a public network like Bitcoin. The system prioritizes transaction speed, scalability and central‑bank oversight, allowing near‑instant retail payments while preserving user privacy. By distributing the ledger across numerous nodes...
Eurozone Economic Sentiment Tumbles in April
The European Commission’s economic‑sentiment indicator slipped to 93 in April, marking a third consecutive decline after a brief early‑year rebound. Confidence fell across services and retail as households cut back on major purchases and expect higher savings. At the same...
The Month That It Was : April 2026
The Macro Butler released its April 2026 edition of “The Month That It Was,” a macro‑focused podcast recap of the month’s economic headlines. The episode is available to paid Substack subscribers and can also be streamed on YouTube for those with...
Inflation Risks Rebuild in Australia, Supporting RBA Tightening
Australia’s consumer price index jumped to 4.6% year‑on‑year in March, up from 3.7% in February, as transport costs surged 9% and housing inflation accelerated to 6.8%. The underlying trim‑mean CPI rose to 3.5% YoY, indicating persistent price pressure. The data...
Bank of Thailand Keeps Interest Rate Unchanged
The Bank of Thailand left its one‑day repurchase rate unchanged at 1.00%, the lowest level in more than three years, after six consecutive cuts that shaved 150 basis points off the policy rate. The decision reflects concerns that higher oil...
Elliott Wave Update of EURUSD – April 29th, 2026
EWM Interactive released an Elliott Wave update for EURUSD on April 29, 2026, highlighting a critical price level to watch ahead of the day’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest‑rate decision. The analysis, accessible only to paying subscribers, suggests that...
FX Daily: Powell’s Last Act Might Carry a Hawkish Tint
The FX Daily note highlights that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s final press conference could tilt hawkish, bolstering the dollar amid lingering equity jitters and Middle‑East volatility. A potential hawkish Fed signal, combined with Iran‑related geopolitical risk and the UAE’s...
Smart Traders Target Liquidity, Not Just Candles
Most traders see candles… smart traders see liquidity. This setup shows a complete model: Liquidity Sweep → MSS → FVG Entry 📌 What’s happening: Price takes liquidity at CRTH Then shifts structure (MSS) Then gives a perfect entry at FVG That’s the only high probability setup. Stop chasing...
USD/JPY Poised for Yearly High Amid Fed Outlook
Japanese Yen Short-term Outlook: USD/JPY Bulls Eye Yearly High- Fed on Tap https://t.co/ccyORpFfkx $USDJPY Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/E5R5glIagQ
Waiting Game: Markets Stall Ahead of Fed Powell’s Finale
Traders are sitting on the sidelines as the Federal Reserve’s June meeting approaches, with most expecting a rate hold at the 3.50%‑3.75% range and a neutral “steady as she goes” tone from Jerome Powell. Oil prices have jumped on the...
Spain Seeks ECB Board Seat, Not for Cuerpo
Cuerpo says Spain wants an ECB board seat, but it won’t be for him https://t.co/CTzpWUPcjU via @flacqua @basteiro https://t.co/L5JRxkNcxq
No Fed Dot Plot—FOMC Statement Takes Center Stage
There's no Fed dots today, which means that until Powell's last (and 64th—but who's counting) press conference at 2:30 pm, it's just the FOMC statement to do the heavy lifting. Here's what I'm watching: https://t.co/8sdY0wHDV8
Elliott Wave Update of USDCAD – April 29th, 2026
USDCAD broke into positive territory on April 29, marking its first green session in four weeks. The move was sparked by bearish pressure fading near a key support level around 1.3600. Analysts using Elliott Wave theory now project the pair...
Euro's Q1 Plunge and April Rebound Signal Policy Repricing
Euro and ECB: The euro' fell nearly 1.65% in Q1, only to claw back about 1.25% in April. At one level, that looks like noise within a broader range. At another, it reflects a market that has been repeatedly and...
Central Banks Maintain Strong Q1 Gold Purchases Despite War
While this captures two months pre war and while gold has likely been a source of funds for some foreign countries post war, central bank buying still strong in Q1. https://t.co/vQDtnkXVdj
Elliott Wave Update of USDJPY – April 29th, 2026
The latest Elliott Wave update examines how high the USD/JPY pair could climb as it remains in green territory for a second consecutive week. Analysts apply a bullish impulse wave count that projects the pair toward the mid‑155.00 level. Technical...
Offshore Dollar Deposits Top $14 Trillion, Dominance Grows
Despite all the noise about de-dollarization, the FT reports that offshore dollar deposits just SURPASSED 14 TRILLION DOLLARS. The dollar is FAR AHEAD of any rival and its lead is INCREASING. KING DOLLAR = REIGNS SUPREME. https://t.co/A48y0RhHY4
USDCAD Reflects Negative Yield Spread Despite Higher US Rates
Even though the US benchmark rate is ~150 basis points higher than the Canadian benchmark, the 2-year to benchmark yield spread between the US and Canada is -0.53% (-53 bps). $USDCAD vs that premium differential: https://t.co/hp6WgKtRCI
This Is How You’d Be Trading the Fed If You Sat on Goldman’s Desk
Goldman’s trading desk views the upcoming FOMC as a backdrop, not a market mover, with the Fed expected to hold rates amid near‑unanimous support. The real catalyst, according to the desk, is oil‑related geopolitical risk, which continues to shape inflation...
Higher Rates, Energy Costs Spell Trouble for Import‑dependent Currencies
Rising rates and high energy costs are going to be bad for any currency whose country is a net importer of energy Going long JPY (or EM FX for that matter) right now is effectively calling the top on global bond...
Bonds and Yen Remain Market’s Critical Focus
Just released this week's Scouting the Tape that follows up on last week's bond and Yen discussion. Continue to believe this is the most important area of the market. There is a lot going on here.
Powell's Swan Song
Jerome Powell will deliver his final Federal Reserve press conference tomorrow before the Senate confirms Kevin Warsh as his successor. Powell is expected to argue that the Fed will keep rates steady because inflation risks have risen, even as unemployment...
BoC Likely Holds Rates Amid Slowing Economy, Rising Inflation
Bank of Canada meets before the Fed this morning. ZERO chance they hike rates 🔻Spending DOWN 🔻Full time employment DOWN ⬆️Inflation UP https://t.co/HPRy9yMpD7
Yen's Slide Reflects Debt, Not Policy, as BoJ Caps Yields
Japan's Yen is the weakest in many years, even though the BoJ this week was hawkish and signaled a hike for the next meeting. Debasement of the Yen isn't a currency story. It's a debt story. As long as the...
ECB Signals Hawkish Shift as Oil‑Driven Inflation Risks Rise
The European Central Bank left policy rates unchanged in March but delivered a more hawkish outlook, citing rising oil prices and heightened inflation risks. Inflation jumped to 2.6% year‑on‑year in March, and the probability of a 25‑basis‑point hike in June...
Eurodollars Dominate as Petrodollar Fades, Dollar Consolidates
The petrodollar has been increasingly irrelevant for more than a decade @ctindale Eurodollars run the system And as disorder spreads, the dollar isn’t fading, it’s consolidating power #Dollar #Eurodollar #Macro #OOTT https://t.co/lMSN5ySCZ5
Hungary's Central Bank Warns Against Rushed Euro Adoption
Hungary’s central bank governor urged caution on the new government’s plan to adopt the euro, saying that a rushed process could lead to unintended negative consequences for the economy https://t.co/krQSmnDRjv via @mkasnyik https://t.co/9nMNVQwEH9
HK Inflation Near Target, Currency Board Proves Effective
Hong Kong’s inflation rate comes in at 1.7%/yr in March, JUST A TAD below its de facto 2%/yr inflation target. Hong Kong’s Dollar-Based Currency Board is WORKING LIKE A CHARM. https://t.co/LLVZcUcIV2
UAE Liquidity Aid Could Cement Dollar Dominance
China probably is short on liquidity If the UAE provides it via US swap lines, that strengthens US dollar dominance, right @izakaminska ? #China #DollarSystem #Geoeconomics #Yuan #GlobalFinance
US-Israeli Conflict Fuels Record Yuan Surge
Thanks to the US-Israeli war on Iran, China’s currency is gaining. Cross-border portfolio flows hit $712 BILLION in March (+40% vs last year), while the yuan’s share of China’s international transactions rose above 56%, the highest on record. CHINA = BIG WINNER....