Know What's Happening in Currencies
Know What's Happening in Currencies
Yen emerges as world’s cheapest funding currency, fueling a $435B carry‑trade
The Bank of Japan’s ultra‑loose stance has turned the yen into the cheapest source of funding globally, underpinning a massive carry‑trade that amassed roughly $435 billion between 2022 and 2024. A modest rate hike in March 2024 barely dented the trade, but markets remain wary of a sudden, aggressive tightening that could compress spreads and force borrowers to unwind yen‑denominated debt.
Deutsche Bank has appointed Gerald Podobnik as Co‑Head of its Corporate Bank, effective immediately, replacing Ole Matthiessen. Podobnik will share global leadership with Michael Diederich and join the Group Management Committee, reporting to Fabrizio Campelli. He brings 23 years at the bank, most recently serving as CFO of the Corporate and Investment Bank divisions. The move underscores Deutsche Bank’s focus on disciplined growth and solidifying its position as Europe’s corporate banking champion.
Cutting cycle is over, apparently - and markets starting to price hikes. Except for the Fed because, you know, he did *promise*...... https://t.co/rJQHqLdaJj
Iran is getting bombed to smithereens. If oil tanker traffic through the Straits of Hormuz resumes in any meaningful fashion, Iran has every incentive to blow up a ship. All it takes is one oil tanker and global markets will...
Japan is set to revise its 2025 Q4 GDP upward to 0.3% quarter‑on‑quarter, driven by strong winter bonuses and a rebound in capital spending. In China, February CPI is expected to rise to 1.0% year‑on‑year, buoyed by Lunar New Year...
The War Continues to Roil the Markets: The war continues to disrupt the global capital markets. The US dollar remains firm though mostly within the ranges seen in recent days. It is threatening to break higher against the Japanese yen,...
Fed governor Chris Waller on Bloomberg TV: January PCE inflation is going to be hot. The energy shock is a new risk. If the labor market is solid, "It does say you can sit there and wait."
Axi, the Australian‑based retail FX and CFD broker, has appointed Andrea Rebusco as Regional Head for the UK, EU and LATAM, reinforcing its dual B2C and B2B growth strategy. Rebusco brings nine years at IG Group plus senior roles at...
NFP Surprise? The data certainly says so. Here are the "leading indicators" for the US jobs report that I follow and it overwhelmingly calls for a beat We'll be trading it live with you at 8:10AM ET Join us on X or...
NEW: Kazakhstan’s central bank is set to invest up to $350M from its reserves into the crypto sector. The strategy targets crypto-linked equities and funds, not direct purchases of digital assets. The program could start in April or May. https://t.co/RlEGwWKYzs
Bank of Japan (BOJ) policymaker Hiroshi Himino said underlying inflation is gradually accelerating toward the bank's 2% price‑stability target, while the central bank keeps monetary conditions broadly accommodative. He emphasized that the BOJ will fine‑tune the degree of accommodation but...
The dollar looks like it wants to rip higher through 100, doesn't it? $DXY $USD https://t.co/ScJLmOqxcb
Korea is a super interesting case (even before the latest events in the Gulf). Surging current account surplus (10% of GDP), surging domestic stock market and a very weak currency are an unusual combination 1/
South Korea's headline CPI held at 2.0% year‑on‑year in February, while core inflation rose to 2.3%. Fresh food and petroleum prices fell, but service costs increased, showing lingering price pressure. Higher global oil prices and a weakening won have sharpened...
Swedish central bank urges public to horde cash in case of payments disruption https://t.co/ckNfNUQsve "The Riskbank is currently working on improving the possibility of making offline payments by card to strengthen resilience." https://t.co/yLYmWsDoh0
Update on the Fed’s Balance Sheet and its Reserve Management Purchases. Adding T-bills, shedding MBS, Treasury note & bond balances on ice, SRF unused https://t.co/M947SfSoUP https://t.co/c3uHc5VmGA
The interview with Oleg Itskhoki examines how Russia employed financial repression in 2022 to weather the largest post‑war sanctions package. By banning cash withdrawals and obligating exporters to surrender foreign‑currency earnings, Moscow halted a ruble freefall and stabilized its fiscal...
Why are we surprised by 👇? I wrote this nearly six years ago, in the context of why the US won’t allow India the same freedom of an undervalued currency that it accorded China: https://t.co/sZ45dDSSRv
This paints a potential scenario for how the dollar index could return to its all time high. Not bc it is great. But bc all other fiat will fail first.
The US dollar still dominates Africa’s trade, finance and debt, but China’s renminbi is gaining traction. African policymakers have launched the Pan‑African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) to enable local‑currency cross‑border payments, yet adoption remains modest. Since 2024, renminbi usage...
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: After the rupee hit a record low, India’s central bank sold dollars. Then, the Rupee SURGED, with the biggest gain in Asia today. https://t.co/rzGC4rj8Kv
February was another strong month for the Japanese equity market and for Senjin Capital Fund I. The Fund’s unit price increased 6.7% in AU$ terms, despite a ~3% FX drag from the weakening Yen. The Fund has now returned 48% net of...
Trader Ashraf Laidi posted intraday gold analysis to a WhatsApp group on March 4, 2026, highlighting the GoldBugs Ratio (GBR) as a contrarian indicator for XAUUSD. The GBR chart showed a trend‑line resistance at 6.0, implying that as long as the level...
99% of traders enter too early. Smart money waits for the precision entry. Price taps the order block, liquidity is taken, and the reaction begins. This is the difference between emotional trading and strategic trading. If you understand SMC and ICT concepts, the...
In 1973, US debt/GDP was 32%, deficit/GDP was 1%, & NIIP/GDP was +10%. There was no level of inflation & rates that could push the US into a debt spiral. Today those #’s are 122%, 6%, & -90%, & 4.8% 10y...
Fitch Solutions warns that a broader US‑Iran conflict could trigger a sharp currency shock across sub‑Saharan Africa. In a prolonged escalation, Brent crude is projected to trade between $110 and $130 per barrel, raising energy costs and disrupting shipping routes....
The HFT algos/CTA trend followers don't discount geopolitics very well. If @hkuppy is right, he makes a real case why active management is of ultimate importance when there is a real global change. The VIX is not mean reverting this time,...
Everyone is talking about ECB rate hike odds by Dec spiking to 60% from 20% BUT Fed Fund futures show less chance of 25bp cut in June than a week ago (before the Iran strikes) When do you think the Federal Reserve...
Alasdair Macleod warns that an escalating conflict with Iran could ignite a global financial crisis, driving energy prices higher and pushing bond yields sharply upward. He argues that U.S. equities are perched in a dangerous bubble vulnerable to rapid correction....
"The US Dollar may still have moved up after the war started, but the price of US Treasuries went down. Flight-to-safety and flight-to-quality aren’t what they used to be."
US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Breakout Faces Major Test at January High- NFP on Tap https://t.co/ww8j824xfZ $DXY Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/7sX9giMwmH
Leverate announced a partnership with Swiss‑backed prop‑trading firm JoinX Capital, designating Leverate’s end‑to‑end infrastructure as the technology backbone of JoinX’s global platform. The collaboration supports a community of over 47,500 traders in 184 countries, offering multi‑asset access to Forex, crypto...
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Sudanese pound ranks as the WORLD'S 6TH WORST CURRENCY. The pound has depreciated by 28% over the past year. https://t.co/6WS2fKoH6r
One of reasons banks are freaking out about stablecoins, even though stablecoins don't pay yield, is bc there is more demand for USD outside the US than there is inside the US. And that means billions (no...trillions) of profits going...
The ECB Governing Council met on 4‑5 February 2026 and kept its three key rates unchanged, signalling a data‑dependent stance through 2027. Market reactions to recent geopolitical and tariff shocks were muted, with the euro gaining about 1 % against the dollar...
loonie strengthens amid middle east chaos. upside of being a quasi petrocurrency i guess https://t.co/kfnMOPwxal
EVERYONE'S BEARISH ON NFP - THEY MIGHT BE WRONG ⚠️4 leading indicators say the US jobs number could surprise to upside Meanwhile $NQ $ES are bleeding and $CL is surging. Here's my breakdown of it all👇 https://t.co/tPjJsIC76Y
DoubleLine Capital sees a "virtuous feedback loop" in emerging markets as a weakening U.S. dollar and ongoing central‑bank rate cuts create attractive local‑currency fixed‑income opportunities. While recent U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran sparked a sharp sell‑off in EM currencies and equities,...
The Dollar (blue) has risen sharply above rate differentials (black). That's the best indication this week's Dollar spike is about short-term risk aversion and repatriation flows. Totally short-term and doesn't invalidate Dollar weakness later this year... https://t.co/2nXDj5db75 https://t.co/EXSOCllmRB
Options for ~2.2 bln euros at $1.16 expire at 10 am ET Options for ~535 mln at $1.3350 expire then Options for ~$355 mln at CAD1.3650 also expire DTCC listed
Commerzbank analyst Michael Pfister argues that higher oil prices and the United States' shift to a net oil exporter improve its terms of trade, bolstering the dollar against the euro. Because central banks focus on stabilising inflation, price adjustments occur...
Markets are pricing war with Iran as a hawkish shock for the Fed (lhs). But the US rate differential versus its G10 peers is moving against the Dollar (rhs), because central banks outside the US will also be less dovish....
This week's rise in USD confounded those who said the US is losing reserve currency status. That's NOT what it's about. Americans repatriate assets when bad shocks hit, like in 2008, 2020 or 2025. A very short-term thing. The Dollar...
Polytope Labs, fresh from a $5.5 million raise, is building an on‑chain stablecoin infrastructure to streamline foreign‑exchange settlement for Nigerian fintechs. The product sits atop its Intent Gateway, part of the Hyperbridge protocol, which has already processed roughly $500 million in cross‑chain...
Indian government bonds rallied on Thursday after a record ₹202 billion (≈$2.19 billion) of bonds were net‑bought by the RBI and institutional investors on Wednesday. The 10‑year benchmark yield steadied around 6.66%, reversing a brief rise, while the rupee strengthened to ₹91.61...
Euro could strengthen with a bigger global role, ECB’s Wunsch says https://t.co/Qg36hBmWVe via @LyubovEUWorld https://t.co/LrN4SLJExv
Nikkei futures surged 3.8% to 56,310, reversing a 3.6% drop the day before. The index remains up 7.7% year‑to‑date and 45% over the past year, reflecting strong investor appetite for low‑multiple Japanese stocks and tech exposure. The Bank of Japan...
Oil and gas price shocks hit emerging markets more than developed. Not to mention South Korea and Japan are major buyers (read: dependent). BOJ inflation-induced rate hike can be pulled forward from my Q3 projection to Q2. $USDJPY
The Dollar’s Climb: What It Means Now $DXY $USD $UUP My thoughts based on the charts on @stockcharts https://t.co/zhE0dQKw6t https://t.co/JXMstMoSwD
Sydney’s property auction market experiences a sharp surge in clearance rates during February and March, marking the highest seasonal performance in recent years. Historical data shows 2022 and 2024 achieved the peak clearance percentages for this period. As the year...
One of the side effects of the blasé market response to the US-Iran conflict is economic concerns seem to readily overridden by inflation expectations from higher energy prices. Expectations for Fed rate cuts through 2026 have dropped to -41bps -...
