Elliott Wave Update of USDCAD – April 29th, 2026

Key Takeaways

• USDCAD turned green after four weeks of decline
• Support near 1.3600 halted bearish momentum
• Elliott Wave suggests next target around 1.3800
• Resistance at 1.3850 could trigger corrective wave

Pulse Analysis

The US‑Canadian dollar pair (USDCAD) has finally escaped a prolonged downtrend, snapping four weeks of red candles with a modest rally. This reversal aligns with Elliott Wave practitioners who view the 1.3600 level as a pivotal support that, once defended, often initiates a new impulse wave. The broader macro backdrop—divergent monetary policies between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada, coupled with stabilizing oil prices—provides a supportive environment for a USD‑led advance.

From a technical standpoint, the recent price action satisfies the fifth‑wave criteria in a classic five‑wave Elliott structure. Traders are eyeing the 1.3800‑1.3850 corridor as the next logical resistance, where a break could confirm the completion of the impulse and usher in a potential wave‑C correction. Conversely, failure to breach this zone may signal a premature exhaustion of buying pressure, prompting a retracement toward the 1.3600 support. Volume spikes and bullish divergence on the MACD further reinforce the wave‑count, suggesting that the upside could be sustained if market sentiment remains positive.

The implications extend beyond chart patterns. A stronger USDCAD influences North American trade balances, raises the cost of Canadian imports, and impacts the profitability of commodity exporters, especially in the energy sector where Canadian dollars are closely tied to oil revenues. For investors, the pair’s trajectory informs carry‑trade decisions, as higher U.S. yields relative to Canadian rates make the USD more attractive. Monitoring the Elliott Wave milestones alongside macro indicators will be crucial for positioning ahead of any potential volatility in the coming weeks.