Today's Currencies Pulse
Rupee flat on hopes West Asia truce will hold
The Indian rupee held steady as markets priced in hopes that a West Asia truce would hold, hovering near ₹95.78 per dollar after slipping 8 paise in early trade. Traders kept a close eye on geopolitical developments while the currency remained largely unchanged.
Christina Papaconstantinou: Central Banks and Independence - a Test for Democracy
Central bank independence, enshrined in EU law, shields monetary policy from short‑term political pressure while mandating price stability. The European Central Bank (ECB) and national banks operate under the Treaty on the Functioning of the EU, granting them a high degree of autonomy. Transparency and accountability to bodies like the European Parliament complement this independence, ensuring democratic oversight. The Eurosystem’s credibility, built on insulated decision‑making, proves vital during severe economic or geopolitical shocks.
Japan's Top Currency Diplomat Issues Final Warning Before Action in FX Market
Japan’s top currency diplomat, Masato Mimura, issued a final warning that Japan may intervene in the foreign‑exchange market, emphasizing close coordination with the United States under the September FX agreement. The warning followed a verbal intervention by Finance Minister Shunichi...
Burkhard Balz: Foundations of Resilience - the Role of Cash and the Digital Euro
Burkhard Balz highlighted that payment system resilience relies on both cash and a forthcoming digital euro. He explained cash’s proven role as a risk‑free, offline anchor, especially during crises, and outlined how the digital euro is being designed with offline...
Erik Thedéen: Monetary Policy Challenges in War Related Supply Shocks
Erik Thedéen, a BIS executive board member, warned that recent geopolitical events—U.S. tariffs introduced in early 2025, the war in Iran and prolonged supply‑chain disruptions—are testing the resilience of the global economy. He suggested that the post‑World‑War II "Pax Americana" stability may...
Yen Soars After Japan Intervened Following ‘Final’ Warning
The Japanese yen rallied 3% on April 30, marking its strongest gain in almost two years after the government intervened in the foreign‑exchange market. The move followed a “final” warning from officials urging investors to stop selling yen. While the...
Japan's Katayama: We Are Getting Closer to Taking Decisive Step in FX Market
Japan’s finance ministry signaled a stronger verbal intervention to push the yen higher, treating the 160.00 USD/JPY level as a firm barrier. The Bank of Japan kept its policy rate at 0.75% and upgraded inflation forecasts while downgrading growth amid...
BOJ Faces 3% Core
BOJ risk scenario: core CPI ~3% in 2026–27 as oil $105, yen -10%, stocks -20%. Macro: sustained above-target inflation. Risk: rising inflation expectations. Trade: short-duration JGBs (JPY-hedged). — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Bank of England Live: Interest Rates Tipped to Be Held as Oil Hits 2022 High
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee met at 12 pm to decide on the Bank Rate, with most analysts betting the 3.75 % rate would be held despite hints of dissent. Inflation in the UK rose to 3.3 % in March, up...
Japan’s Record Sales of Euro Bonds Show Historic Funding Shift
Japanese issuers sold a record €18.5 billion (≈ $21.6 billion) of euro‑denominated bonds in 2026, more than five times the amount sold a year earlier. Dollar issuance grew modestly to about $45 billion, while yen‑denominated funding slipped 3.6% to roughly $45.7 billion. The shift reflects...
Fed’s $9 Trillion Money Printing Drove Inflation, Not Supply Shocks
The Fed expanded the money supply by nearly $9 trillion under Powell. Inflation has averaged >4% per year over the past 6 years. Powell's explanation? It was nearly all due to rolling “supply shocks" over which the Fed has no control. The truth:...
North Korean Won Plummets 69%, World's 2nd Worst Currency
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the North Korean won ranks as the WORLD'S 2ND WORST CURRENCY. The won has depreciated by 69% against the USD over the past year. WESTERN MEDIA = CONTINUES TO FAIL TO COVER THE WORLD'S MOST UNDERREPORTED CURRENCY STORY....
RBA to Hike Into Fuelpocaplypse
The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to raise its cash rate as inflation accelerates. In the March quarter the consumer price index rose 1.4% year‑over‑year, matching forecasts, while headline inflation jumped from 2.1% in mid‑2025 to 3.6% in December...
Sudan's Pound Plummets, Ranks 4th Worst Globally
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Sudanese pound ranks as the WORLD'S 4TH WORST CURRENCY. The pound has depreciated over 37% against the USD in the past year. https://t.co/ECk4tFBGhH
Iranian Rial Plunges 11% Against USD in Two Days
In the past two days the Iranian rial has reversed course and TANKED. It has depreciated by a STUNNING 11% vs. the USD. https://t.co/o1qfzBl321
IUX Analysis Says Fed Leadership Shifts Will Bolster Dollar Strength
IUX released a new market analysis warning that upcoming Federal Reserve leadership transitions are likely to reinforce the U.S. dollar’s upward trajectory. The report ties the leadership uncertainty to tighter global financial conditions and heightened volatility across equities, commodities and...
Fed Holds Rates Amid Most Divided Vote Since 1992
FOMC: Fed leaves the FFR unchanged at 3.50-3.75% The vote was the most divided FOMC decision since 1992 (8-4 in favour of holding rates).
UAE Reserves at $285B; March Data Will Test Stress
Counterpoint: the UAE ended February with USD 285b in fx reserves. The first real indicator of stress will come when the Emirates releases data (soon I expect) on end March reserves 1/ https://t.co/eO790Q1e0x
Brics to Push for Intra-Currency Payments as ‘Immunity’ Against Western Clout
BRICS is evaluating a digital payments framework that would settle cross‑border transactions in member currencies, aiming to reduce reliance on the US‑dollar‑centric SWIFT system and mitigate sanctions risk. The proposal, spearheaded by India’s central bank, will be discussed at a...
Base Rate Held AGAIN at 3.75% – Here's What It Means for You and when It Might Change
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee voted 8‑1 to keep the base rate unchanged at 3.75% on 30 April, despite CPI inflation rising to 3.3% in the year to March. One member pushed for a 0.25‑point hike to 4%, but...
Brazil's Cuts Rate by 25bp to 14.50% but Flags Deanchored Inflation and Middle East Risks
Brazil's monetary policy committee (Copom) unanimously cut the Selic benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 14.50%, matching the majority of economists' expectations. For the second meeting in a row, the board offered no forward guidance, tying any further moves...
Powell’s Parting Gift: How One Chair’s Dissents Could Constrain the Next
Jerome Powell, in his final 18 months as Fed chair, deliberately tolerated dissent within the Federal Open Market Committee, shifting decision‑making from a chair‑centric model to a more independent committee. By allowing members to voice opposition, Powell reduced the informal...
ANALYSIS: Fed Hold Keeps Markets Anchored as Rate-Cut Timeline Slips
The Federal Reserve left its policy range unchanged at 3.5%‑3.75%, cementing a "higher for longer" stance despite inflation still above target and heightened geopolitical risk from the Iran conflict. The vote revealed four dissenting governors—the most opposition since 1992—signaling deep...
Bank of Jamaica Projects Inflation Up to 7.5% as Rate Holds at 5.5%
Bank of Jamaica policymakers warned that headline inflation could average between 6.0% and 7.5% over the next two years, while leaving the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.50%. The outlook reflects sharp commodity price spikes and a fragile tourism sector,...
Fed Holds Rates, Dissenting Hawk Calls for Cut
Hawks squawk amidst “assaults” The Federal Reserve stayed on the sidelines with rates held in the 3.5to 3.75% range. The statement underscored the uncertainty regarding “developments in the Middle East.” The vote was not unanimous in a very unique way. Governor...
Thursday: Fed Holds with 'Hawkish' Dissenters
The episode reviews the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady, noting three dissenting governors who opposed an easing bias, and examines the market reaction, including a dip in U.S. equities and a rise in oil prices after Donald Trump’s comments...
History Shows Market Resilience Amid Repeated Currency Crises
Watching the news today feels a lot like watching a movie I’ve seen many times before. In 1971, I witnessed a major currency devaluation that I thought would be a disaster—but the markets actually went up. It was a lesson I...
Bank of Canada Holds Key Rate Steady but Warns Future Movements Unclear
The Bank of Canada kept its benchmark policy rate at 2.25% for a fourth straight meeting, in line with market expectations. Governor Tiff Macklem warned that elevated uncertainty—stemming from the war in Iran and a pending Canada‑U.S‑Mexico trade review—could push rates...
Fed Split Widens as Rates Stay on Hold Amid Inflation Fears
The Federal Reserve kept its policy rate in the 3.50‑3.75% range but issued its most divided statement since 1992, with an 8‑4 vote and three officials dissenting over an easing bias. The Fed highlighted rising inflation, now described as "elevated"...
Comments on FOMC Statement and Press Conference
The Federal Open Market Committee left the federal‑funds target range unchanged at 3.5 %‑3.75 %, with only Governor Miran dissenting in favor of a 25‑basis‑point cut. Three regional presidents—Cleveland’s Beth Hammack, Dallas’s Lorie Logan and Minneapolis’s Neel Kashkari—opposed adding an easing bias...
Hammack, Logan’s Hawkish Dissent Fuels
Hammack and Logan dissenting on "additional" leans hawkish. What amazes me is these two are the architects of tapering, then ending QT, and with Perli flooding the system with RMO reserves. These two literally do not understand monetary...
Fed Holds Rates 8-4, Divided Over Easing Bias
Fed votes 8-4 to hold rates steady, the most divisive decision since 1992. Miran wanted a 25bp cut. Hammack, Kashkari and Logan supported the hold but wanted the Fed to remove the easing bias in the statement. The line in question...
Federal Reserve Issues FOMC Statement
The Federal Open Market Committee left the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.5 percent to 3.75 percent, citing solid economic expansion but modest job gains and persistent inflation. The statement highlighted elevated price pressures, especially from global energy costs, and noted...
Watch JPY Around Golden Week: 160‑163 Potential
I have consistently C-D tier macro views and, as such, rarely focus on macro trading. That being said, historically JPY intervention is carried out around holidays/illiquid time periods (likely for the most impact) so 160-163 handle + Golden Week holiday...
Powell to Lose QE Chair, Warsh Takes Over
And here is Powell at the press conference: Regime Change: Powell, Chair of Mega-QE & “Ample Reserves Regime,” to Be Replaced by Warsh, who Wants Smaller Balance Sheet But Powell will stay on as governor until “the investigation is well and...
Fed Cuts Raise 30-Year Yield; Inflation Still Looming
The Fed started cutting rates in Sep 2024 with the 30-year Treasury yield below 4%. They cut rates 175 bps and the 30-year yield is now approaching 5%. The Fed may be done with inflation, but inflation isn’t done with the Fed....
Explaining Powell Critique Live with Jack Farley, Max Wiethe
I will be on with @JackFarley96 and @maxwiethe in about 15 minutes. And for those torching me on my Powell takes, I will explain further. (For everyone else, Powell is making a terrible mistake by staying.)
Yield Caps Hide Fiscal Risk, Depreciate the Yen
The Yen is tumbling. That's happening because the BoJ caps Japanese long-term yields at artificially low levels via JGB purchases. These yield caps prevent the fiscal risk premium from showing up in the bond market, so instead it shows up...
Powell Adopts PR Role to Defend Fed Independence
Seems Powell is going to take up a pseudo PR role for Fed independence now that he is handing off the Chairmanship role. They are putting out very clear messaging pushing back on the political pressure.
Powell: Neutral Rate Uncertain, but We're Near It
Powell says we can't know what the neutral rate is definitively, but says we are pretty close to it now
Fed's Vague “Adjustments” Reveal FOMC Uncertainty
This was NOT a bias. The Fed statement mentioned it as such in the vaguest ways possible "adjustments" instead of rate cuts, which is a reflection of the fact that the FOMC itself is uncertain abt the outlook.
Powell Says He'll Stay, Exit only when Appropriate
Jay Powell: I have no choice but to stay at the Fed as a governor. I will keep a low profile. I will leave when I think it is appropriate to do so. https://t.co/zZifrDb0D5
Powell Stays on for Lawsuits, Not Politics
Powell says his staying on is not a political statement to deny Trump an appointee - says he is staying on due to the lawsuits. Says he long expected to retire and was looking forward to it
Powell to Remain Fed Governor, Echoing 1948 Precedent
POWELL: WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A GOVERNOR FOR PERIOD OF TIME - Bloomberg **Last time this actually happened? 1948 — Marriner Eccles got the boot as Chair and kept his seat on the Board until 1951. - Grok
Fed Independence Crucial: Expert’s Ready Written Response
He was ready for that question. Written answer - on how important Fed independence is
Fed Faces Unprecedented Internal Division in 21st Century
This might be the most fractious and divided the Fed has been in the 21st century... https://t.co/ejBsNbLtXp
Fed Insiders Signal No Immediate
I don’t read this isn’t a dissent against Powell per se. Hammack, Kashkari, Logan are giving Warsh a heads up that the FOMC isn’t going to fall in line with any sort of immediate push towards easing
Dissents Signal Neutral Bias, Not Powell Weakening
The 3 dissents over the easing bias is not a blow to Powell, like some are saying, but it is a signal to Warsh. The dissents wanted to adopt a more neutral bias. Miran's dissent for a rate cut...
FOMC Holds Rates, Four Dissent Over Easing Bias
Interesting. The FOMC holds at 3.50-3.75% as expected, but there were four dissents - 1 voting (Miran) cut and 3 opposing an inclusion of an "easing bias" in the statement
Fed Holds Rates, Committee Splits on Future Cut Language
Surprising exactly nobody, the Fed kept rates on hold. More interesting: This is the most divided I've seen a committee vote. They're not divided over the decision (except Miran, but who cares), but over the language, and whether to signal the...
Four Fed Dissenters Signal Rare Break From Easing Bias
NEW: There were *four* dissents on the Fed’s rate pause. Three bank presidents wanted to ditch the easing bias, and a governor dissented for a rate cut. The last meeting with four dissents was in 1992. https://t.co/JM88jOXIAg