Know What's Happening in Currencies
Know What's Happening in Currencies
Yen emerges as world’s cheapest funding currency, fueling a $435B carry‑trade
The Bank of Japan’s ultra‑loose stance has turned the yen into the cheapest source of funding globally, underpinning a massive carry‑trade that amassed roughly $435 billion between 2022 and 2024. A modest rate hike in March 2024 barely dented the trade, but markets remain wary of a sudden, aggressive tightening that could compress spreads and force borrowers to unwind yen‑denominated debt.
U.S. ISM surveys show the economy accelerating in early 2026, with the February services index climbing to 56.1 and overall business activity reaching 59.9, the strongest pace since May 2024. New orders and order backlogs also surged, supporting a projection that first‑quarter GDP could exceed 3% year‑over‑year. However, analysts warn that a looming military conflict in the Persian Gulf could raise energy prices, eroding consumer spending and creating demand‑destructive pressure. The Federal Reserve may face a trade‑off between curbing inflation and supporting growth.
Global corporates are intensifying foreign‑exchange risk management as trade volatility spikes. A new Treasury Today survey shows 88% now hedge FX, with 61% of previously unhedged firms contemplating hedging. Despite a 67% surge in hedging costs, activity has risen and...
The USD/CHF rally cooled after two days of war‑driven safe‑haven buying, snapping a breakout above the 50 % retracement (0.78206) and peaking near the 61.8 % level (0.78726). Momentum stalled at 0.7878, and the pair closed below the midpoint, prompting a pullback...
Nicolas Shamtanis and Stathis Xenos have launched Conexus IQ, a boutique advisory firm aimed at CFD brokers, prop firms, and broader fintech platforms. The duo leverages nearly two decades of experience in FX, CFDs, and social‑trading to help clients navigate a...
ARQ, formerly DolarApp, raised $70 million in a Series B led by Sequoia Capital and Founders Fund. The funding will fuel a rebrand, team expansion, and rollout of new financial products beyond its core stablecoin remittance service. With more than two million...
The Indian rupee fell to a new record low as the US‑Iran conflict sparked safe‑haven buying of the dollar and pushed oil prices higher. Higher oil costs and the realization that U.S. rate cuts may be delayed have lifted inflation...
The UK’s official international reserves rose in February 2026, reaching approximately £115 billion, driven primarily by gains in foreign‑currency assets. Gold holdings remained steady at around £10 billion, while IMF‑related assets showed a marginal increase. The reserve portfolio’s composition shifted slightly toward US‑dollar‑denominated...
Chinese sovereign bonds are positioning themselves as a strategic alternative to US Treasuries, driven by investor demand for geopolitical hedges. Recent dollar‑denominated issuances in Hong Kong saw a 30‑times oversubscription, with coupon rates closely matching Treasury yields. Economist Xu Qiyuan...
The latest Elliott Wave update shows EUR/USD slipping over 200 pips as investors flee to the U.S. dollar amid heightened Middle East tensions. Wave analysis suggests the pair is in a corrective phase, with the next bullish support zone around 1.0750....
The US Dollar Index surged past the 99‑point mark, trading around 99.20 for a third consecutive day, as investors reassessed Federal Reserve rate‑cut expectations. The 10‑year Treasury yield steadied near 4.06%, reflecting higher real yields amid rising inflation concerns. Escalating...
China's official manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.0 in February, matching a 33‑month low, while the private RatingDog index rose to 52.1, highlighting a split between domestic weakness and export‑driven resilience. Sub‑indices show production, new orders and employment contracting, even as...
The USD/CAD pair rebounded toward the 1.3700 level after a brief pullback, but remains trapped in a two‑week range. A firmer U.S. dollar, buoyed by safe‑haven flows and waning expectations of three Fed rate cuts, is offsetting the rally in...
Excited to share some big news - I’ve officially joined Slice https://t.co/gid7Ek33vo 🎉 I’m bringing my structured forex trade ideas, in-depth macro analysis, and real-time market insights to the Slice community. My goal has always been simple: help traders build consistency,...
Notable Thurs FX option expirations: 1.9 bln euros at $1.1685 $1 bln at JPY157 GBP535 at $1.3350 $305 mln at CAD1.3650 $335 mln at MXN17.50 $755 mln at BRL5.21 DTCC listed https://t.co/bSx6eAhEKQ
China’s RatingDog Manufacturing PMI surged to 62.1 in February, up from 50.3 in January, while the Services PMI rose to 56.7, both beating market expectations. The strong readings signal a robust rebound in Chinese factory output and service activity. The...
The February PMI updates came across the wires earlier today - the final readings for much of the developed but first reading for China. Notably, the Chinese gov't's own composite dropped to a 3-year low while the 'RatingDog' surged to...
US Service sector activity further accelerated in February according to the ISM data. The 56.1 reading was an unexpected improvement and highest since Oct 2024. The employment and price components also improved (higher and lower respectively). Good US economic update https://t.co/Pvofc3DgPk
The Taiwan dollar fell to 31.782 per U.S. dollar, its weakest level since May, after foreign investors sold NT$230.2 billion of Taiwanese stocks this week – the largest weekly outflow since at least 2000. The sell‑off was triggered by heightened geopolitical...
I just posted a detailed macro breakdown of today's rally on @SliceApp This is where I share the deeper analysis, market correlations, macro trade ideas, and lessons I don't post anywhere else Join the community 👉 https://t.co/2RO8ANwj2x https://t.co/TKe1RoxUOt
For a few hours yesterday morning, markets looked very scary. Brent was going vertical, USD was rising like crazy and S&P 500 was plummeting. The US calmed things down by promising to insure and escort oil tankers, but one Iranian...
Rising crude prices, driven by the Iran‑Israel conflict, could push the Philippine peso past the 59 per‑dollar threshold. MUFG forecasts the PHP trading between 58.5 and 59.5 if oil steadies around $90 a barrel, while JP Morgan sees a modest global...
Nervous Consolidation Featured after the Asia Pacific Equity Rout was Extended: The dollar is trading a little softer today, but the tone is one of nervous consolidation. The market is digesting reports that Iran has reached out to negotiate the...
Nervous consolidation is the main feature in the capital markets after Asia Pacific equities extended their slide. $USD is mostly softer but in yesterday's ranges. Japan's MOF threatened intervention. See https://t.co/24YmyiETAN https://t.co/XmEx257iS8
The episode covers a sharp rise in oil prices amid Middle East tensions, its impact on global markets, and an upgraded Australian Q4 GDP forecast of 0.7% growth. ANZ economists discuss central banks' cautious stance on inflation, noting higher oil...
Switzerland’s inflation rate at 0.03%/yr is at the lower end of the Swiss target range of 0-2%. NO SURPRISE. Switzerland’s money supply (M3) is within Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 4.4%-6.4%/yr at 5.3%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/wDVH5hwQyz
I had a thoroughly enjoyable conversation with @Jessica Ellerm on the @ThemeliaApp podcast. If you’re interested in the past, present and possible future of money, you might enjoy the full discussion: https://t.co/B7i9sKF81G https://t.co/4uk0xAjmVe
ISDA and EMTA have issued the 2026 FX Definitions, a comprehensive overhaul of foreign‑exchange derivative documentation. The new standards, slated for implementation on November 22, 2027, replace the 1998 FX and Currency Option Definitions and merge ISDA and EMTA templates...
Usdinr crossed 92, a very quick move from the 90s. This plus crude will hit inflation in 6.months if it isn't controlled
YEN - 12 days down on extended run - a close above the 5 SMA can set up a short sale. https://t.co/V3KhPE1bpS
The Bank of Japan announced an expansion of its blockchain sandbox to experiment with settlement of central bank reserves using tokenized deposits, targeting interbank and securities use cases. Governor Kazuo Ueda said the pilot will test connections to existing systems...
Peso - new momo lows on 2 per ROC after downside BO on Monday from 3 bar triangle. https://t.co/9h48YOGDYL
The US-Iran war has driven up oil prices, stoking inflation fears and lifting yields alongside the dollar. Will this break the gold market? #GOLD #GoldPrice #USIranConflict #Dollar #Stocks #Markets #Macro #Trading https://t.co/ciFOGnfO6T
The dollar continues to function as a global safe‑haven asset even amid acute crises, reaffirming its appeal to risk‑averse investors. Simultaneously, elevated U.S. Treasury yields are drawing capital despite lingering concerns over fiscal deficits and policy uncertainty. Market data shows...
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said his outlook, up until a few days ago, supported maintaining a general easing bias. Inflation has been on a trajectory of "gently heading down" while there's no evidence the labor market is tightening. But...
Gold has dropped sharply amid the swell in volatility - whereas the Dollar has jumped. The metal is still a safe haven, but a lot of capital was deployed during its run up as a diversification play (and some as...
Artificial intelligence is reshaping foreign‑exchange trading, with the global AI market projected to reach $2.48 trillion by 2034 and AI‑driven forex platforms expected to grow to $631.9 million by 2035. Modern AI forex automation software can ingest massive data streams and execute...
NY Fed President John Williams with a speech that marks to market his outlook, one that has few changes from recent commentary out of Fed leadership: Labor market has shown “promising signs of stabilization.” Despite a “lack of headway” on...
All things considered, I would expect the US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index to be higher... Uncertainty index vs DXY on the weekly: https://t.co/sVGAiUIrV7
Why I’m so bullish on the era of the Radical Fed Chairman: Most technicians aren’t technologists. But Kevin Warsh is both. 👇 https://t.co/90GCOPkuDW
I was on @Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal yesterday to discuss fallout from the spike in oil prices for the global economy and what this means for US reserve currency status. We're getting a risk-off Dollar rally now, but medium-term this...
U.S. Dollar gapping up to the highest level since early Dec. '25. Written recently at Thrasher Analytics about the pot'l for dollar strength based on COT positioning data. $UUP $USD https://t.co/Q0aZULVSnr
I did a video on the overview of the 'risk off' position last night after the US close. We are shifting into the more intense, sentiment-driven scenario: higher correlations, preference for liquidity above most other features, more intense moves. https://t.co/wSiCdtzp9e https://t.co/sRCRYfdQxz
March 2026 kicks off with big changes for @ApexTradeFund @TradingLucid @Xpertfunding @ftmo @OANDAPropTrader Get the details https://t.co/hvM8ZXjDn6
The rock solid complacent trends like $GLD, $EEM, and $ACWX all getting flushed today as the dollar rips another day https://t.co/f6LhWCRZLV
In contrast to the US indices drop, the $DXY Dollar Index is extending its rally. Risk correlations are increasingly aligning - suggesting a stronger drive in sentiment (specifically 'risk off') https://t.co/TQcm749mr6
The Dollar is rallying sharply. When this kind of Dollar strength happens, risk of disorderly market conditions and problems in the US Treasury market rise, because the highly leveraged basis trade can get hit as EM central banks sell their...
The Brent oil price is now up a stunning 14% from Friday and we're starting to see disorderly strengthening in the Dollar as the global risk-off builds. Even gold is down versus the Dollar at this point. This is a...
The Dollar is the Only Game in Town: If this is World War 3, the world wants dollars. The greenback has is broadly higher but hardly anything else is. Other safe haven, like gold, the Swiss franc, and US Treasuries...
Japan selling to prepare to defend the Yen. Stage 1 of reverse carry trade thesis.
The $US role in the world economy has been questioned, but amid fears of WWIII, the dollar is in much demand. Not Swiss francs. Not gold. The dollar. See https://t.co/pDzT69A9b1 https://t.co/bIUvqkX4HO
