Today's Currencies Pulse
RBI logs record $53.13B net dollar sale as rupee slides 9.5%
The Reserve Bank of India recorded its largest net dollar sale in at least 15 years, disposing of $53.13 billion in FY 26, more than double the $25.52 billion sold in FY 23. The rupee weakened about 9.5% against the dollar, prompting heavy RBI intervention in both spot and forward markets, where forward‑market net sales hit a historic negative $103.06 billion in March 2026.
India’s Rupee Faces a Policy Tug‑of‑war Between Pride and Pragmatism
Indian policymakers are wrestling with the rupee’s symbolic value and the practical need for flexibility. Historical trauma from the 1966 devaluation and recent import‑price pressures have hardened a bias toward defending the currency, even as fundamentals suggest a softer stance.
Philippines Treasury to Auction up to $648 M in T‑bills as BSP Signals More Rate Hikes
The Philippine Bureau of the Treasury announced a P36 bn ($648 m) T‑bill auction and a P60 bn ($1.08 bn) dual‑tenor bond offering, while the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) signaled additional rate hikes. The moves come after the central bank’s first hike in...
Monday Open FX (Unlike the Closed Strait of Hormuz). Indicative Rates 27 April 2026
Monday’s FX market opened with unusually thin liquidity, making rates prone to sharp swings as Asian centers come online. A forthcoming interview with former President Trump, where he advocates a 15‑20% minimum tariff on EU imports, pushed the EUR/USD pair...
Monday: Way Cleared for Warsh to Be Fed Chair
The episode covers the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the stalled Iran‑Pakistan peace talks, and the clearing of Kevin Walsh’s path to become Federal Reserve Chair. ANZ senior commodity strategist Daniel Hines explains how oil production shut‑ins in...
Iranian Rial Gains 8% Amid US‑Israeli Conflict, Media Silent
Since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran, the Iranian rial has APPRECIATED by 8% vs. the USD. THE WESTERN MEDIA CONTINUES TO NOT REPORT ON THIS IMPORTANT STATISTIC. https://t.co/U7feV9L31L
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Chinese Yuan Renminbi (CNY): Overview and History
The Chinese yuan renminbi (CNY) is mainland China’s official currency, with the yuan as the unit and renminbi as the name. The People’s Bank of China issues the currency and manages a floating exchange rate anchored to a basket of...
Russia Cuts Rates Despite High Inflation and Excess Money Growth
Last week, Russia’s Central Bank CUT its policy rate by 50 bps to 14.5%. WRONG MOVE. RU’s inflation is at 5.9%/yr, ABOVE its 4% target. RU’s Money Supply (M2) is growing at 11.4%/yr, ABOVE Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of 8.4%/yr—a rate consistent...
Zimbabwe Banks Push RBZ on 35% Rates as Credit Stalls, ZiG Adoption Lags
Zimbabwe's major banks have collectively warned the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) that its 35% policy rate is choking credit growth, while the ZiG currency faces resistance at fuel stations. The central bank’s ZiG1.2 billion ($1.2 bn) Targeted Finance Facility has disbursed...
ECB Meeting Preview: Hawkish Hold, No Precommitment
The European Central Bank is expected to keep rates on hold at its April 30 meeting, with a unanimous vote reflecting a cautious stance amid slowing eurozone growth and an emerging energy‑price inflation shock. While a rate increase in June...
Kevin Warsh Poised to Become 17th Fed Chair
Kevin Warsh is now on track to become the 17th chair of the Federal Reserve when Jay Powell's term concludes on May 15. https://t.co/mPaGC9If1n
USD Swap Lines Weaponized: Past Freeze Boosted CIPS, Gold
RE: “Weaponizing USD swap lines” - last time the USD system rails were weaponized (2022 Russia FX reserves frozen), CIPS payments more than doubled in 2 years, and gold rose 3x in 4 years. Let’s watch. https://t.co/ydeBLxbx6r
Will Kevin Warsh Trumpify the Federal Reserve?
Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor and close Trump ally, is poised to join the Fed board as the new chair seeks a more aggressive stance on interest rates. Warsh has publicly echoed President Trump’s criticism of high rates...
India's FX Reserves Rise to $703.3 Billion as West Asia Tensions Persist
The Reserve Bank of India reported a $2.3 billion increase in foreign exchange reserves, bringing the total to $703.3 billion for the week ended April 17. The rise comes as the RBI steps up dollar sales to support the rupee amid heightened geopolitical...
Three Hidden Mistakes Sabotaging Your Forex Success
You're not losing in forex because of your strategy. You're losing because of 3 mistakes you don't even realize you're making I break them down (and the psychology behind each) in my new video 👇 https://t.co/CUUqbHmejH https://t.co/CUUqbHmejH
Dollar's Surge Temporary; Peace Deal Could Cut 3%
The Dollar has risen sharply due to safe haven inflows, but as soon as we get a peace agreement, those flows will reverse. My best guess is that the Dollar will fall immediately by 3 percent on such an agreement....
What To Expect From Powell’s Fed Chair Swan Song
Jerome Powell faces what could be his final public remarks as Federal Reserve Chair ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting. The central bank is expected to keep policy rates unchanged while the March core PCE inflation figure is projected at...
Azerbaijan Manat Holds Steady at 1.7000 per USD in Weekly Review
The Central Bank of Azerbaijan reported that the manat's exchange rate against the US dollar remained flat at 1.7000 this week, marking a rare stability episode. Small movements were noted against the euro, Russian ruble and Turkish lira, underscoring a...
FX Week in Review: Trillion Dollar Volumes, New FCA License, Figo and Ochoa CFDs Ambassadors, Robinhood in Singapore
The CFD sector posted a record‑breaking quarter, with Capital.com, Hantec Markets, TMGM and EC Markets each surpassing $1 trillion in client trading volume for Q1 2026. Retail options‑trading app Investa secured an FCA licence, while TenTrade and IC announced football star Luis Figo...
Rupee Slides 4.5% YTD, Hits All‑Time Lows
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: The rupee has depreciated ~4.5% this year. Despite the RBI’s ongoing intervention, the rupee continues to visit ALL-TIME LOWS. Remember what Oscar Wilde wrote: “The chapter on the Fall of the Rupee you may omit. It is somewhat too sensational.”...
China Could Replicate Eurodollar Model for Global CNY
1/8 Brendan Greeley on the development of the eurodollar. If Beijing truly wants CNY to be more widely used in international finance, the eurodollar market provides one potentially useful model to show how that might happen. https://t.co/OoBlDvaenX
Eurozone Q1 2026 GDP Release Set for April 30, Looms Over Euro‑Stocks
Traders and investors are bracing for the Eurozone's Q1 2026 GDP report, scheduled for April 30 at 12:00 CET. The data will test the bloc's uneven growth trajectory and could steer euro‑area equity markets and the euro’s exchange rate ahead...
ECB Likely to Hold Rate at 2% as Energy Price Risks Linger
The European Central Bank is expected to keep its key policy rate at 2% at the April meeting, after a temporary dip in oil prices following an Iran war ceasefire eased immediate inflation pressure. Analysts say the pause reflects lingering...
HSBC Survey Shows 51% of Companies to Raise Hedging Ratios Amid Volatility
HSBC’s inaugural Markets Pulse Survey, conducted in Q1 2026 with more than 1,300 corporate respondents, found that 51% intend to boost their hedging ratios. The finding underscores a growing corporate appetite for risk mitigation as volatility in currency, interest‑rate and...
Fed Keeps Rates Unchanged at March 2026 Meeting, Sets Stage for April Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee left the benchmark federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5%‑3.75% during its March 18‑19, 2026 meeting. The decision follows three rate cuts in 2024 and three more in 2025, and it positions the Fed for a...
Brazilian Real Hits R$5.01 per Dollar, Propelling Ibovespa to Record 197,324 Points
The Brazilian real slipped to R$5.01 per U.S. dollar, its weakest level since April 2024, as the Ibovespa rallied to a fresh all‑time high of 197,324 points. The move reflects a widening interest‑rate gap with the United States, stronger commodity...
Chinese State Banks Boost Dollar Holdings, Fuel US Asset Demand
Gonna keep repeating this until it registers -- The PBOC may or may not be reducing its real Treasury holdings; it could just be moving out of US custodians But the state banks are clearly adding to their dollar portfolios, and thus...
UBS Projects Fed to Trim Rates by 50 Bps by Year-End as Inflation and Labor Slacken
UBS says the Federal Reserve is on track to deliver an additional 50 basis points of rate cuts before the end of 2024. The outlook rests on March data showing slower core inflation and weakening labor demand, which UBS believes...
Treasury Swaps Shield GCC, Preventing UST Yield Spike
An important point of view (on Treasury-supplied USD swaps for GCC countries) comes from our very own, @GraphCall: https://t.co/RHN9TFGR1f This exchange of currency - without selling held collateral - avoids a GCC-forced dump of UST to get liquidity while oil revenue sales...
Fed Set to Lead Uneasy G-7 With Rates Kept on Hold This Week
The Federal Reserve will join other G7 central banks in keeping interest rates unchanged this week, maintaining the federal funds rate at 5.25‑5.50%. Policymakers cite softened inflation but warn that renewed energy price pressures from the Iran‑Israel conflict could reignite...
Dollar Dominance Monitor Cited in Financial Times Article on Quantity of Global Trade Invoiced in Dollars
The Financial Times cited the Dollar Dominance Monitor (DDM) in a new analysis showing that roughly 85% of global trade is still invoiced in U.S. dollars, down from a peak of about 90% in 2020. The DDM attributes the modest...
Ghana Central Bank Flags Accounting Costs of Stabilisation, Cedi Outlook
Bank of Ghana Governor Johnson Asiama told the Council of State that the central bank’s 2025 financial statements will record accounting costs tied to the Domestic Debt Exchange Programme and recent monetary tightening. He stressed that despite these pressures, inflation...
The World’s Central Banks Are Now Treating Stablecoins Like a Real Multi-Trillion Dollar Monetary Threat
Central banks have moved from debating stablecoin risk to treating them as a systemic threat, emphasizing control, potential runs, and dollarization. BIS General Manager Pablo Hernandez de Cos called for global cooperation, warning that large‑scale redemptions could destabilize Treasury markets....
Japan's Debt Trap Leaves Yen as Sole Release Valve
Japan is trapped. ~230% debt/GDP. BOJ owns 50%+ of the JGB market. Deeply negative real rates. The Yen is weakening despite rising yields because the market knows they can't meaningfully hike without triggering a fiscal crisis. The currency is the...
India Holds $600bn, Should Sell Dollars, Not Seek Swap
India doesn't need a swap line. It has 600bn$ nearly, to sell, if it wants and sadly it doesn't want to. Cad is 50bn to 75bn a year. There is no exit tax. 20% above 10L a year is only...
Jerome Powell’s Final Fed Press Conference Marks an End to an Era
Jerome Powell is set to hold his final Federal Reserve press conference, a ceremony that could close a decade‑long era of regular Q&A sessions with journalists. Trump‑nominated successor Kevin Warsh has hinted he may scrap future press conferences, arguing the...
Poland's Inflation Overshoot Linked to Excess Money Supply
Poland’s inflation is at 3.0%/yr in March. That’s ABOVE its 2.5% target. PL’s money supply (M3) is growing at 11.5%/yr, ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 8.8%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its inflation target of 2.5%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A...
Yuan Emerges as Safe Haven Amid Dollar Uncertainty
“Xi Jinping…said the country must have a ‘powerful’ currency. The yuan is still far from that. But it is becoming something else: a source of comfort for countries and firms disconcerted by America’s haphazard stewardship of the truly powerful dollar.” https://t.co/cZJuG30DSV
Rupee Slips to 93 per Dollar as RBI Steps up FX Interventions Amid Modest Reserve Gains
The Indian rupee weakened to a 92.2‑93.5 band against the dollar after breaching 95 earlier this week, even as the Reserve Bank of India reported a modest rise in foreign‑exchange reserves. RBI officials intensified spot‑market dollar sales and tightened liquidity...
BoE's Rapid Bond Unwind Fuels UK's Higher Yields
The UK isn't the fiscal basket case it's made out to be. During the LDI crisis in 2022, the Bank of England kicked asset managers to the curb. It's also unwound its gov't bond holdings way faster than other central...
Central Bank Independence Ensures Commitment to Price Stability
Central bank independence refers to the absence of political influence on monetary policymaking. It is widely accepted that independence acts as a commitment device to achieve price stability. https://t.co/Gp9sjyM0Pv
Elliott Wave Analysis of USDJPY – April 27th, 2026
USD/JPY halted a fourth consecutive weekly decline, positioning the pair for a third straight monthly gain. The move reflects ongoing yen weakness amid divergent monetary policies between the United States and Japan. In an Elliott Wave analysis, the author projects...
Senate Banking Committee Schedules Warsh Fed Chair Vote
The Senate Banking Committee has set a committee vote for Kevin Warsh’s Fed chair nomination on Wednesday https://t.co/l3pMHESk0G
Swap Lines Are Loans, Not Gifts, Fueling Dollar Demand
For those new to swap lines due to recent headlines, swap lines are not USD “gifts”, they are USD “loans”. The difference? Loans need to be paid back. And as such create dollar demand. Swap lines...
Russia's Central Bank Cuts Benchmark Rate to 14.5% in Eighth Straight Move
The Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia lowered the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 14.50%, marking the eighth successive reduction aimed at containing rising inflation. The decision, announced on April 24, 2026, underscores the central...
May 2026: Markets in Transition, No Central Bank Meetings
May 2026 Monthly: The global capital markets will enter May with a sense of transition rather than resolution. Neither the Federal Reserve, nor the European Central Bank or the Bank of Japan meet in the month ahead. The market is...
US Shock 2.0: Iran War Drives Market Disruption
May Monthly drops. Much talk about China 2.0 shock, but the main disruptive force is not emanating from Beijing now. US shock 1.0 were the tariffs and US shock 2.0 is the war on Iran. May is...
Offshore Yuan Slips Past 6.83 per Dollar, Marking First Weekly Drop in Three Weeks
The offshore yuan weakened past 6.83 per dollar on Friday, triggering its first weekly decline in three weeks. The slide reflects a firmer U.S. dollar and fresh volatility from U.S. military action in the Strait of Hormuz, while analysts weigh...
2025: China's Surplus Increasingly Recycled Through State Banks
100% wrong substantively. The key change in 2025 is that a rising share of China's surplus is being recycled through the state banks. They aren't the PBOC but they aren't exactly private either 1/2 https://t.co/VGghVlVzkz
US May Weaponize Dollar Swap Lines Amid Tensions
🧵Some other important swap line factoids: 1/ Robert McCauley has been warning about the potential weaponisation of dollar swap lines for quite a while. In this view, the US is likely to apply statecrafty terms and conditions on dollar...
India's Sensex Drops 2,600 Points Over Three Sessions as Oil Prices Surge
The BSE Sensex shed more than 2,600 points across three trading sessions, while the NSE Nifty fell below the 24,000 mark, as Brent crude surged to $107 per barrel. Geopolitical friction between the United States and Iran and a weakening...