Know What's Happening in Currencies
Know What's Happening in Currencies
ECB faces binary decision on rates, says Dutch central bank chief
Olaf Sleijpen, president of the Dutch central bank, told a finance podcast that the European Central Bank’s upcoming Governing Council meeting will centre on either raising interest rates further or keeping them unchanged. He noted the discussion will take place in Frankfurt in a few weeks when the board reviews fresh inflation data.
Money‑market volatility has markedly subsided, pushing overnight repo rates to near‑record lows and stabilising the SOFR‑FF basis. Higher inter‑bank volumes are keeping the basis narrow while swap spreads have widened, signalling easier funding conditions. The Federal Reserve’s aggressive volatility suppression and the end of quantitative tightening have reshaped funding dynamics, benefitting monetary policymakers but curbing opportunities for STIR traders. Anticipated looser bank‑regulation proposals by the end of Q1 could further influence market liquidity.
🚨 I stopped losing money when I learned this one concept: Failed signals are the BEST signals. 🔄 Buy signal dies? Wait for the candle to close through the low. Go short. 📉 Sell signal dies? Wait for the candle to close through...
MUFG Bank expects U.S. tariffs on Philippine imports to decline following the Supreme Court’s decision that curbed the Trump administration’s emergency‑powers tariff authority. The bank notes that exemptions for high‑value semiconductors and key agricultural products should keep effective trade costs...
Gold closed Friday at $5,278. The all-time high is $5,595. That's $317 away. The US and Israel just launched strikes on Iran. Tehran is retaliating. Iran vows to shut down the Strait of Hormuz. This is the biggest safe haven trigger since 2020. Fib extension...
100 Egyptian pounds equals 2 dollars. You try to spend money and have to deal with conversion rates All countries’ currency is just paper backed by nothing Dollars are printed and you are taxed to fund wars you don’t support The whole...
European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel warned that confidence in the U.S. dollar’s safe‑haven status is waning. He noted that recent market turbulence has led international investors to question the dollar’s reliability, contributing to its ongoing weakness. Nagel...
**Reminder: Weekly Technical Outlook Webinar Tomorrow Morning at 8:30am ET! Interactive Session: https://t.co/EpyXNC6zVR Live Stream on YouTube: https://t.co/VjGiWa89qi
The carry trade has everything to do with leverage. And I encourage you to study Yen behavior during US stock market tail events.
Over the weekend, coordinated US and Israeli strikes hit Iran, prompting missile and drone retaliation that shut Dubai’s airport and threatened oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict pushed Brent crude toward $73 a barrel and heightened geopolitical...
The old geopolitical playbook (USD up, gold up, oil up, bond yields down, stocks down) is on for now.
Foreign investors poured a net $1.55 TRILLION into USD assets last year, up 31.4% from 2024. The oft repeated “Sell America” and “End of King Dollar” narratives don’t align with the facts. Hanke's 95% Rule: 95% of what you read in the...
Thailand's central bank introduced strict retail gold‑trading limits effective March 1, 2026. Individuals can now trade up to 50 million baht per day on each online platform, aiming to dampen speculative buying that has lifted the baht. The cap excludes USD‑denominated...
IG pricing US Crude up around $10 to $77.26 Gold up around $111 to $5,385 EURUSD down 64 pips to 1.1751 Strap in. This is going to be a wild open.
I delayed - and rewrote a few times - my week ahead article. Finally posted up (and here are some of the charts that I speak to): Will US Strike on Iran Change the Market’s Risk Profile? https://t.co/UZu6CPkjrl https://t.co/1Kccta89jL
The IMF paper documents a rapid rise in non‑bank financial institution (NBFI) subsidiaries within banking groups, now accounting for about 32 % of syndicated loan origination in 2024. When macroprudential policies tighten bank‑level constraints, bank subsidiaries cut lending by roughly 1 %,...
This is like Hezbollah redux Don't forget markets open at 6PM NY I am trading it live https://t.co/YkhvV47IGa
The Strait of Hormuz may be open according to the Iranian government, but the IRGC seems to have different machinations. https://t.co/cvL7jYvGoa
The OPEC+ meeting on March 1 is expected to unwind 137,000 barrels per day of voluntary cuts, signaling a tentative supply increase as Brent hovers near $71. US economic data show a slowdown in manufacturing, with the ISM PMI dropping...
The decision tree for tonight - when markets open - follows from oil. In 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, oil rose 40%, which drove the Brazilian Real and other commodity exporters in Latin America a lot stronger. It weighed on...
Just under 7 hours until the Asian session open and the markets can start working some of this risk into market exposure and hedging
USDCAD slipped during the last week of February but managed a modest monthly gain, curbing a three‑week bear run. The pair now hovers near the 1.3500 support zone, a level closely watched by Elliott Wave analysts. The latest wave count...
Brussels proposed a digital form of cash that could be used both online and offline. Navarrete, by contrast, is pushing for an offline-only model. More delays. Can Europe break free of Visa and Mastercard? MEPs stall digital euro https://t.co/SLW3jTmnrB
When markets open tonight, oil prices will spike, which will help oil exporters and hurt oil importers. In Q1 '22, oil prices spiked almost 40%. Single biggest beneficiary - by far - was Brazil's Real, which rose 20%. Turkish Lira...
The EUR/USD pair posted a weekly gain but still logged a modest loss for February, leaving it perched near the 1.1800 mark. An Elliott Wave analysis was released, probing whether the next significant move will head toward the 1.21 upside...
#BrazilWatch🇧🇷: Brazil's inflation is 4.4%/yr. That's ABOVE its 3.0% inflation target. Brazil’s M4 is growing at 9.6%/yr. That is ABOVE Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of 7.1%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its 3.0%/yr inflation target. INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY....
This is the biggest drop we've had in a long time from @ApexTradeFund - It's not even close. This Sunday open. Be ready. 👀🔥
USDJPY recorded a solid monthly gain in February as Japan's inflation slipped lower, strengthening expectations of a more dovish Bank of Japan. The currency pair’s upward momentum has reignited speculation that it could approach a multi‑decade high. Elliott Wave analysts...
⏰ Emergency trading session on Sunday You won't want to trade the market open alone Join us at 6pm ET / 23 GMT to trade Gold $GC Nasdaq $QQQ $NQ Oil , Forex 👇 You wont' want to miss it. Subscribe and hit...
The Eurozone’s inflation comes in at 1.9%/yr. That's below its 2%/yr target. The ECB’s money supply is only growing at 3.4%/yr. That's BELOW Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of 6%/yr, a rate consistent w/ hitting ECB’s 2%/yr target. INFLATION STORY = MONEY SUPPLY...
On February 27, 2026 the EUR/GBP pair surged to a two‑month high, a move highlighted by FX strategist Ashraf Laidi. He linked the breakout to widening euro‑pound yield spreads and shifting rate expectations, reiterating a trade idea he first shared...
A Weak Dollar Won’t Fix the Trade Deficit There’s a popular belief that a weaker dollar will reduce the U.S. trade deficit by boosting exports and reducing imports. In the short term, the opposite often happens. When the dollar falls, imports immediately become...
$DXY - Potentially made a 3 year cycle low in January. February was only a small up month so it's not confirmed yet. A breakout above 100.39 is needed to confirm that the 3 year cycle low is in. A...
InvestingLive analyst Greg Michalowski released a video breaking down the technical outlook for six major FX pairs—EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, USD/CAD and AUD/USD—as the new trading week and month begin. He identifies the prevailing bias, key support and resistance zones,...
Macro: global growth cools; central banks pause. Key factors: easing inflation, mixed earnings, USD strength. Risks: policy missteps, China slowdown. Trade: short EUR/USD. 📉 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷: Turkey's CPI is 30.7%/yr. NO SURPRISE. Turkey's money supply (M3) is growing at 40.9%/yr. That is well above Hanke's Golden Growth of 12.4%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting Turkey's inflation target of 5.0%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/rvnlCC3318
US Dollar slipped this week, trading near 97.60 on the DXY, down about 0.2% as traders digest the Supreme Court’s decision that declared Trump‑era tariffs illegal and the administration’s subsequent new levies. A stronger‑than‑expected Producer Price Index failed to lift...
It’s early. VERY early. But the months ahead could set the stage for the early beginnings of the Monsoon thesis/framework. Time to start thinking about it. IYKYK @RaoulGMI
🚨 The US and Israel just launched strikes on Iran. Tehran is firing back. Missiles hitting Gulf states. Markets open Sunday night. Oil. Gold. Nasdaq. Forex. Everything gaps. I'm going LIVE Sunday 6PM ET to break down what this means for your trades. Don't...
GBP/USD slipped about 0.10% to 1.3469 as US core PPI jumped 3.6% YoY, reinforcing expectations of a less dovish Federal Reserve. The stronger dollar was further supported by rising geopolitical risk in the Middle East, which hurt risk‑on sentiment. In...
Bond bulls that were celebrating 10y UST yields dropping <4% on Friday waking up Saturday morning to reports that the Strait of Hormuz is possibly being closed 👇 https://t.co/pg9o9TPdO5
Markets have survived every geopolitical shock in history Pearl Harbor took 307 days to recover. Kuwait took 189. 9/11 took 31. The average? 47 days Today the US and Israel struck Iran. History says buy the dip - but how long...
SBI Holdings has signed an MOU with blockchain firm Startale Group to create Japan’s first fully regulated yen‑pegged stablecoin. The token will be issued as a Type 3 Electronic Payment Instrument, backed by assets held in Shinsei Trust & Banking, and...
Looking at the intraday chart of the synthetic EURUSD - derived through Bitcoin proxy - limited Dollar response to today's headlines https://t.co/Pcdz3RvyC7
When markets open tomorrow night, they'll be hunting for winners and losers from war with Iran. Turkey is a big energy importer (red) and its trade deficit excluding gold and energy is near record levels (blue). Turkish Lira will be...
The chaos doesn't stop. There's been Greenland, a yield spike in Japan, private credit ructions and AI. Now it's Iran. Easy to miss the forest for the trees and that's precious metals. Gold is up 22% this year. Silver 31%....
March 2026 Monthly: March seems to be more about the unfolding of current forces driving the capital markets, rather than new forces or policies. All the G10 central banks but the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meet in March, and...
The #1 Biggest Mistakes traders make Jakub shares his insights with me @iFXEXPO @jakub_ceo @fortraderscom
Egypt's inflation rate is 11.9%/yr. Egypt's money supply (M3) is growing at 20.6%/yr. That's ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate range from 11.1%/yr- 15.1%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its inflation target range of 3%/yr-7%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY...
I discuss market conditions, key markets to watch, core themes and top global macro event risk (including #NFPs) for next week's trading in this week ahead video: https://t.co/lp8DLESugk https://t.co/0HVj5C19GQ
Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD 6-Week Winning Streak Faces Major Test at Multi-year Highs https://t.co/OQ8pT6aY7y $AUDUSD Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/v6yDD2nwcL
