Today's Currencies Pulse
Rupee flat on hopes West Asia truce will hold
The Indian rupee held steady as markets priced in hopes that a West Asia truce would hold, hovering near ₹95.78 per dollar after slipping 8 paise in early trade. Traders kept a close eye on geopolitical developments while the currency remained largely unchanged.
Has De-Dollarization Begun?
U.S. President Donald Trump’s escalating conflict with Iran is prompting global policymakers to question the dollar’s dominance. At the IMF and World Bank spring meetings in Washington, officials highlighted the erosion of confidence in the U.S. financial system. UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves publicly criticized the war, calling it a folly that jeopardizes economic stability. Analysts suggest the episode may accelerate the early stages of de‑dollarization.
DXY Hits 3‑year Low, May Slip to 96
$DXY monthly - Made a 3 year cycle low in January. The action this year has been similar to 2021 when it rallied into March but retested the low in May. At the moment it looks like May will be...
Dallas Fed Warns Inflation May Stay Above Target Longer
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan explains her dissent, which objected to suggesting that the next rate move is more likely than not to be a cut: "I am increasingly concerned about how long it will take inflation to return all the...
Ghana’s Foreign Reserves Jump to $14.5 Bn as Central Bank Stabilises Economy
The Bank of Ghana lifted international reserves to $14.5 bn, up from $9.1 bn a year earlier, while cutting the policy rate to 14% and reducing public‑debt‑to‑GDP to 45%. The moves have spurred cheaper credit, revived growth and lifted consumer confidence in...
Bank of England Holds Rate at 3.75% Amid Energy Shock Risks
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee voted 8‑1 to leave the bank rate unchanged at 3.75% on April 30, citing the risk of material second‑round effects from an energy price shock tied to the Middle East war. The decision...
Namibia Holds Key Interest Rate as Iran War Darkens Outlook
Namibia’s central bank left its main repo rate unchanged at 6.50% for the third consecutive meeting, citing a deteriorating growth and inflation outlook linked to the Iran war. Inflation eased to 2.1% in March, the lowest since 2020, but the...
Dollar Stays on the Back Foot as Markets Embrace Risk and Look Past Geopolitics
The U.S. dollar remains on the defensive as risk‑on sentiment drives equity rallies and eases oil prices, despite ongoing Iran‑related geopolitical headlines. April saw U.S. stocks close strongly, with the Dow posting its best performance since November 2024, reinforcing confidence...
Kashkari Urges Fed to Keep Policy Flexible Amid Iran War
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari: "Why I dissented" He says the policy statement should signal the next rate move could be a cut or a hike given the broader range of outcomes from the Iran war. He lays out two modalities: a...
FOMC Dissent Procedural; Wait for June SEP to Revise Statement
In the weekly commentary that drops tomorrow, I suggest the 3 FOMC dissents over the statement was more procedural than substantive. When is the best time to change the statement--the majority was including to wait for the June iteration of...
Kyodo News Digest: May 1, 2026
Japanese authorities stepped into the foreign‑exchange market on Thursday, marking the first yen‑support intervention in 22 months, and pushed the currency from the low‑157 range to the mid‑155 per dollar level. The move sparked rapid speculation, delivering a brief but...
Takaichi's Low‑Rate Push Risks JGBs, Only Hikes Cure
Takaichi wants to intervene in markets to mitigate inflation, but keep rates low to support her agenda. JGBs will suffer until she realizes hiking rates is the only way to durably keep inflation in check and support JPY. Bank lending has...
BOJ's Massive Yen Intervention Yields Little Effect
From our latest @ForwardGuidance…”throwing good money after bad”… BOJ intervention >2x the size of recent Yen purchases with minimal impact. https://t.co/Unck13wfjJ
May Day: Market Looks for US Leadership
US markets entered Friday with the dollar weakening after a probable ¥5.4 trillion ($34.5 bn) yen intervention by Japanese authorities. The euro climbed toward $1.1750 while sterling rebounded above $1.36, reflecting shifting expectations after five G10 central banks met. Futures now price...
BOE Pauses Digital Pound While Competitors Accelerate
BOE considers keeping the digital pound on ice as rivals race ahead https://t.co/Un1uISiQVD via @tomelleryrees https://t.co/Hp6lRnRs2z
Dollar Softens as Markets Await US Leadership
May Day: Market Looks for US Leadership: In holiday-thinned markets, the dollar is mostly softer as North American leadership is awaited. In light of yesterday’s surge in the yen, and contrary to our expectation, it does appear that Japanese officials…...
Yen Futures Hit Thursday Low as US Equity Futures Stall on Thin Trade
Japanese yen futures slid to their lowest level of the week on Thursday, falling to a spot‑equivalent of 156.5 after a 2.48% rally against the dollar. At the same time, US S&P and Nasdaq futures stalled, with the former up...
Derivatives Trim BoC Rate Outlook by 22bps, Hikes Discounted
5 G10 central banks met this week and they all delivered to varying extents hawkish holds. The derivatives market adjusted expectations for this year’s course by 22 bp for the Bank of Canada. Two hikes are now...
Japan Likely Intervened Heavily; Fed Remains Sole Cut Prospect
It is looking more likely that Japan did materially intervene yesterday and for a bit more than it did on average in 2024. Today's holiday has thinned activity. US leadership sought. Fed is still only major central bank where mkt...
Asian Currencies Wilting in the Iran War’s Heat
Asian currencies are sliding as the Iran‑Israel conflict pushes oil above $120 a barrel and fuels capital outflows. In India, the rupee fell to a fresh record low of 95.34 per dollar, prompting the RBI to lean on its $700 billion...
Japan's FX Interventions: Temporary Fixes Mask Denial
There's 2 problems with Japan's FX interventions. First, they're only a temporary fix and never reverse the falling trend of the Yen. Second, they signal a gov't that keeps repeating a failed strategy instead of doing what's right, i.e. they...
DBS Sees BSP Off-Cycle Hike in May as Peso Falters, Inflation Risks Intensify
DBS Bank expects the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) to convene an off‑cycle policy meeting in May, with a potential 25‑basis‑point rate hike as the peso stays under pressure from Middle East tensions. The central bank’s hawkish stance follows an...
Yen Rises Sharply to 155 Level Vs. U.S. Dollar on Intervention Speculation
The Japanese yen surged to the mid‑155 per‑dollar level on Friday, spurred by speculation that authorities intervened after an overnight 5‑yen jump. A source close to the government confirmed yen‑buying action, pushing the currency from the upper‑160 range. The stronger...
The World’s Central Banks Are Wrestling With a Gigantic Problem
The Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Bank of England and European Central Bank all chose to keep short‑term interest rates unchanged this week. Policymakers cite surging inflation, slowing growth and heightened uncertainty from the Iran‑driven energy shock. In Washington, the...
THINK Ahead: The Big June Gamble
The European Central Bank signaled a likely rate hike in June, moving away from its previous stance as inflation climbs toward 4%. Christine Lagarde emphasized that the council will have more data on how the energy shock feeds into price...
ECB Policymaker Nagel Says More Appropriate to Respond in June if Outlook Does Not Improve
ECB Governing Council member Peter Nagel indicated that a June policy response would be appropriate if the economic outlook does not improve markedly. He reiterated that the baseline scenario already assumes a more restrictive stance, hinting at at least one rate...
How China’s Fear of Secondary Sanctions Pushed Moscow Into Leveraging Stablecoins to Reshape Financial Warfare
Russia’s central bank plans to launch a digital ruble in September 2026, but private stablecoins have already become the primary tool for evading Western sanctions. The A7A5 stablecoin, launched in January 2025 and pegged to the ruble, has processed over...
FX Option Expiries for 1 May 10am New York Cut
FX option expiries on May 1 at 10 a.m. New York time featured no major contracts, leaving traders with a quiet expiry slate. European markets were closed for Labor Day, reducing overall liquidity and shifting price discovery to U.S. venues. The ongoing US‑Iran...
Reminder: European Markets Will Be Closed Today
European equity and bond markets are closed today in observance of Labor Day, shutting down the ECB's payment and securities settlement systems and curbing cross‑border liquidity. London remains operational, providing the only European trading venue. Meanwhile, market focus has shifted...
USD/JPY Bounces Back After Supposed Intervention Effort by Tokyo Yesterday
The Japanese Ministry of Finance appears to have stepped into the foreign‑exchange market, driving USD/JPY down roughly 400 pips from a high of 160.50 to a low near 155.55 before the pair recovered to above 157. The move followed a warning...
Europe Moves to Break Visa and Mastercard's Grip — but Not Everyone Agrees
Europe is racing to launch a state‑backed digital euro, with legislation aimed for approval by the end of 2026 and a retail rollout as early as 2029. The initiative seeks to curb the dominance of U.S. card networks, which process...
China's De-Dollarization Is Just a Reserve Shift
1/4 Brad Setser explains why China didn’t truly de-dollarize—it just shifted its dollar holdings from official reserves at SAFE to less transparent state entities like banks and investment funds. @Brad_Setser https://t.co/xz6NMW6HWT
InvestingLive Asia-Pacific FX News Wrap: Japan Warns of More Intervention if Needed
Japan’s finance ministry signaled readiness to intervene in the yen market during Golden Week, pushing USD/JPY back above 157.0 after a brief dip. Tokyo’s April CPI came in below expectations, with core inflation remaining under the Bank of Japan’s 2%...
Japan Intervenes to Defend Yen and Warns of Further Action over Golden Week
Japan confirmed a foreign‑exchange intervention on Thursday, its first in almost two years, after the yen slipped past the 160 per dollar line. The move pushed the currency up roughly 3% to a low of 155.5 before settling near 157....
Euro Stalls Below Key Fibonacci, Extending Downtrend Against Dollar
The euro slipped back under critical technical thresholds on Thursday, trading around 1.1726 against the dollar. With the pair stuck below the 50% Fibonacci retracement and key moving averages, bearish momentum appears to be extending, despite a modest rally in...
Offshore US Dollars Surge Over the $14 Trillion Mark, Where’s De-Dollarization?
Offshore U.S. dollar liabilities have surged past $14 trillion, a level driven by persistent U.S. trade deficits and regulatory arbitrage that lets foreign banks hold dollars without Federal Reserve reserve requirements. The growth reflects the Eurodollar market’s private‑credit plumbing rather than...
Japan’s Mimura Declines to Comment on Yen Intervention Talk
Japan’s vice finance minister for international affairs, Atsushi Mimura, declined to comment on any direct yen intervention but reiterated that Tokyo remains prepared to act in the crude‑oil futures market. He said authorities are “always ready to act regarding crude...
FX Options Traders Face Losses as US‑Iran Ceasefire Dampens Volatility
FX options traders are scaling back directional positions after the US‑Iran ceasefire, while some hedge funds turn to volatility‑selling structures. The shift follows a reversal of the dollar’s early‑April rally as oil prices fell and equities rose on ceasefire optimism.
Morningstar DBRS Confirms Mexico at BBB, Stable Trend
Morningstar DBRS confirmed Mexico’s long‑term sovereign rating at BBB and short‑term rating at R‑2, both with a Stable trend. The agency highlighted the Sheinbaum administration’s fiscal consolidation, noting the public‑sector borrowing requirement fell to 4.9% of GDP in 2025 and...
S&P 500 and Nasdaq Futures Rise, Yen Pares Gain: Markets Wrap
US equity‑index futures nudged higher on Monday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 each climbing about 0.3% after Thursday’s all‑time‑high closes. The rally was fueled by optimism surrounding corporate earnings, especially from megacap technology names. Apple posted a robust...
Global Rate Divergence Poised to Push Dollar Lower
We are in a new era of global central bank policy divergence. The rest of the world appears to have significantly more room to tighten financial conditions than the US. That divergence is likely to act as a major driver of further...
Indian Rupee Slides Past 95 per Dollar as Brent Crude Hits $126, Triggering Capital Outflows
The Indian rupee breached the 95 per dollar mark on April 30, 2026, its weakest level since 2020, as Brent crude surged to $126 a barrel and external capital outflows intensified. Analysts warn the currency slide could erode corporate earnings...
Treasury's Hidden QE Fuels Reckless Economic Overheating
Policymakers are running the economy so unbelievably hot right now that I am starting to think it has approached or surpassed recklessness. The Treasury has completely taken over control of the money supply and financial conditions with their ongoing ATI/YCC...
Cuban Peso Falls 30%, Still 5th Worst Globally
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Cuban peso ranks as the WORLD'S 5TH WORST CURRENCY. The peso has depreciated by 30% against the USD in the past year. Given the US sanctions and blockade on Cuba, it’s surprising that the peso has done as...
What Does The Post-War Future Of The US Dollar Look Like? | Brent Johnson
In a recent livestream, Brent Johnson—creator of the Dollar Milkshake Theory and CEO of Santiago Capital— dissected how the US‑Iran conflict could shape the post‑war trajectory of the U.S. dollar. He argued that while America’s overwhelming military edge in the...
Dollaryuan Market Emerges as Key Global Currency Shift
There are lots of moving parts at the moment. But a key one involves the possible formation of a dollaryuan market (or will it be called a yuandollar market? Yet to be determined). https://t.co/NuEwX8HNB6
Dollar Short Resists Gap, Signaling Potential Inflation Surge
Dollar short maintained resistance at gap area....first day down with big impulse - me thinks start of something huuuuge (ha joke, there), but seriously, weekly structure still supports swing to new lows. START of major inflationary...
China's Yuan Strengthens as Petrodollar Talk Dominates
There has been too much talk of petrodollars. And not enough talk of Chinese dollars China isn't really de-dollarizing. Rather the contrary. A new blog 1/ https://t.co/6NT3Onlp9U
Insights on Fed, ECB, BoE, and Big Tech Earnings
Always good to talk financial markets with @MrMBrown where we talk Fed, Bank of England, ECB and Big Tech earnings... https://t.co/sX8SUhflrE
RBI's Derivatives Intervention Hits Record $103B Dollar Short
Rajan showed them the way in and not the way out. The Indian central bank’s intervention in the derivatives market rose sharply in March with its net short dollar position surging to a record $103 billion. https://t.co/nieEKFI3Wc
Cross‑border Debt Now Props the Dollar, Fuels Deficits
These days, the dollar is supported less by the US Navy, and more by all the crossborder dollar-denominated debt outstanding. But the real punchline is that it's also the source of the US structural trade deficits and industrial stagnation.