Today's Currencies Pulse
Rupee flat on hopes West Asia truce will hold
The Indian rupee held steady as markets priced in hopes that a West Asia truce would hold, hovering near ₹95.78 per dollar after slipping 8 paise in early trade. Traders kept a close eye on geopolitical developments while the currency remained largely unchanged.
Deutsche Bank Finds Global Central Banks Cut Dollar Share to 40% and Double Gold to 30%
Deutsche Bank's research institute says the U.S. dollar's share of global central‑bank reserves has fallen from about 60% to 40%, while gold's share has risen to roughly 30%—a doubling in four years. The move is attributed mainly to rising geopolitical tensions and heavy buying by emerging‑market central banks.
Elliott Wave Analysis of USDCAD – May 4th, 2026
USDCAD slipped for the fourth consecutive week in early May, delivering a 2.4% monthly loss in April. The decline is framed within an Elliott Wave analysis that hints the corrective wave may be nearing its end. Weakness in the Canadian...
FX Week in Review: Admirals License Revoked, Capital Index Acquiror, Broker Revenue Declines – and Records at Others
FX week saw mixed fortunes across the retail forex and CFD sector. Admiral Markets voluntarily surrendered its Estonian investment‑firm license as part of a broader group restructuring, while Capital Index changed hands to Sun Siyuan ahead of a rebrand to Vantos...
Fed, ECB, and BoJ: A Matter of Credibility
The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan all left policy rates unchanged this week, but their future moves will be judged on credibility. In the U.S., Chairman Powell’s decision to stay on the board and three hawkish...
Iraqi Dollar Rates Slip Slightly but Stay Far Above Official Level
Iraqi market exchange rates for the US dollar eased on May 2, 2026, with Baghdad selling at 153,750 IQD per $100, but they stay well above the Central Bank's official 130,000 IQD rate. The modest decline signals a brief stabilization...
Bank of Ghana Reports Record GH¢15.6bn ($1.3bn) Loss for 2025 Amid Gold Purchases and Policy Costs
The Bank of Ghana disclosed a GH¢15.6bn (about $1.3bn) loss for 2025, citing a costly gold‑purchase programme, reserve revaluations and elevated policy expenses. Officials said the loss masks policy gains and confirmed a recapitalisation plan to shore up the bank’s...
Libya's Oil Revenues Triple, Currency Gains 34% Amid Iran War
Since the start of the Iran war, Libya’s oil revenues have nearly TRIPLED, from $1 billion in February to $2.9 billion in April. Not surprisingly, in the Feb-April period, the Libyan dinar has appreciated by 34% vs. the USD. LIBYA = ONE...
Swiss April Inflation Expected at 0.6%, Easing SNB Pressure
Switzerland’s April inflation is due on Tuesday, with economists anticipating an outcome of 0.6%, the highest since 2024. Such a result may lessen pressure on the SNB to intervene to curb inflows into the franc https://t.co/GMc7ens4Ew via @CraigStirling https://t.co/Exax6VfThi
Fed Leaves Rates Steady but Signals Tougher Cut Path, Markets Slip
The Federal Reserve left the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%‑3.75% but a record four dissenting votes signaled a tougher road to future cuts. The mixed signal sent the Dow up 0.31%, the S&P 500 up...
Turkey's Money Supply Outpaces Target, Fueling Loose Policy
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: CBRT's Apr. survey has Turkey’s year-end inflation expectations at 27.53%/yr. T’s Money Supply grows at 39.9%/yr. That's well above Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 23.4%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting T’s inflation target of 16%. T’S MONETARY POLICY = LOOSE. https://t.co/iHtsm4n7T8
Trump’s Hormuz Blockade Tanks Philippine Peso, Fuels Global Animosity
Thanks to Trump’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the Philippine peso has tanked. TRUMP = A MASTERCLASS IN HOW TO MAKE ENEMIES. https://t.co/gs3D9z92mY
The 8-4 Vote and the ¥5.4 Trillion Lie.
The Federal Open Market Committee voted 8‑4 on April 29 to keep the federal funds rate at 3.50‑3.75%, marking the most divided vote since 1992 and signaling no June rate cut. Treasury yields jumped, with the 10‑year at 4.39% and...
Fed Cautious After 3.5% PCE, Buy
Fed cautious after PCE 3.5%: services inflation and oil/geopolitics lift risks; divided FOMC delays cuts. Trade: buy short‑duration Treasuries. —Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Ringgit Gains 2.6% as IMF Boosts Malaysia GDP Forecast to 4.7%
The Malaysian ringgit appreciated about 2.64% against the U.S. dollar by the end of April 2026, while the International Monetary Fund lifted its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Malaysia to 4.7% from 4.3%. Both moves underscore growing investor confidence in...
Japan Has Moved to Save the Yen Again, and Bitcoin Traders May Pay the Price
Japan intervened with roughly $35 bn of yen purchases, pulling the dollar down about 3% and moving USD/JPY from a peak of 160.7 to 155.5 – the largest yen‑support action in almost two years. The Bank of Japan kept its policy...
BitMEX Rolls Out Crypto‑Collateralized FX Perpetual Swaps, Offering 100x Leverage
BitMEX has launched six foreign‑exchange perpetual swap contracts that accept cryptocurrency as margin, letting traders access EUR/USD, USD/JPY and other major pairs with up to 100x leverage and a 0% base interest rate. The move bridges crypto derivatives with the...
Japan's Massive Yen Intervention Ineffective Amid BoJ Bond Buying
On Wednesday night, I wrote my usual post flagging the risk Japan would intervene and it did later that night. Its intervention is reportedly as big as in 2024. This didn't work in 2024 and it won't now as the...
Japan Just Put a ‘Band-Aid’ on the Yen. Why High Oil Prices Could Soon Ri...
Japan’s finance ministry and the Bank of Japan launched an estimated $35 billion currency intervention on Thursday, the first of its size in two years, to halt the yen’s slide toward a 40‑year low. The yen rallied 2.4% to settle at...
RBI Governor Pushes for Deeper Liquidity and Expanded Derivatives Infrastructure
Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra told the 25th FIMMDA‑PDAI conference that India’s next growth phase hinges on deeper liquidity, broader participation and a stronger derivatives framework. He announced extensions to central clearing, new total‑return swaps on corporate bonds...
Dollar Index Nudges Above 98 as Fed Pauses, Signals Hawkish Tone
The US Dollar Index (DXY) edged to 98.15 during Asian trading after the Federal Reserve kept rates at 3.5%-3.75% and delivered a hawkish hold. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s “good place” comment and renewed Middle East tensions lifted the greenback, even...
Central Banks Grapple with Massive Inflation‑Growth Dilemma
From Jeff Sommer's article, "The World’s Central Banks Are Wrestling With a Gigantic Problem." #economy #markets #centralbanks @nytimes #inflation #growth
Fed Independence Is a Myth, Powell Chasing Dragons
Fed Independence is a Myth. A bedtime story they tell people to make them think someone is fighting for the little guy against the big bad Government. Powell's ego has him fighting dragons.
Japan Yen Interventions Face Uphill Battle Against Structural Weakness
Japanese officials stepped into the foreign‑exchange market on Thursday to support the yen after it slipped below ¥160 per dollar for the second time this week. The intervention underscores the limits of short‑term buying as the currency’s decline is driven...
Fed Split, Japan's Massive Yen Defense, Markets on Borrowed Time
The Fed just split 8-4. Most divided vote since October 1992. Japan torched ¥5.4 trillion — 7% of FX reserves — in a single day defending the yen at 160. S&P at a record. Nasdaq's best month since 2020. This is what borrowed...
Swap Lines Make Recipients Fed Branches Without Voting Power
The best way to think about USD Swap Lines is that they basically transform the recipient into a new regional branch of the Federal Reserve or US Treasury but the new branch doesn't have any voting rights with regards to...
The World’s Central Banks Are Wrestling with a Gigantic Problem
Global central banks are holding steady on short‑term rates as an Iran‑related energy shock fuels a rare stagflation mix of rising inflation and slowing growth. The Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank and Bank of England all chose...
Reverse Carry Trade Explained: Oil, Yen, Japan Insights
I have been quiet long enough. This is perhaps the most important thread on X ever published. And the most powerful and impactful comic book you will ever read. If you want to understand the reverse carry trade, bookmark this. Oil, Yen, Japan,...
US Blockade Sparks Panic, Capital Flight, Rial Collapse
An underappreciated channel of how the US blockade works is to cause panic and capital flight in Iran. That's why the Rial is falling sharply. A country like Iran sees its currency as a status symbol, so they'll have resisted...
Crude Oil Slides 3.3% to $101.79 as U.S.-Iran De‑Escalation Boosts Market Optimism
Crude oil prices plunged 3.28% on Friday, with WTI June futures trading at $101.79 a barrel, after reports that Iran offered a new peace proposal to the United States. The move lifted the U.S. Dollar Index to 98.22 and revived...
Key Global Central Bank Moves and Election Watch Ahead
Week Ahead: RBA hikes, Banxico cuts. UK local elections. US April jobs data. Be prepared: https://t.co/Eo3ZubYqLB https://t.co/RS94rNYlVS
Mideast Energy Crisis Pushes Fed Toward Dovish Stance
Being a Fed dove in 2025: Here’s why we should cut Being a Fed dove in 2026: Here’s why we don’t need to hike How the Mideast energy crisis is reshaping the Fed’s debate
Indian Rupee Slides to Record 95.33 per Dollar as Oil Tops $125
The Indian rupee hit an intraday low of 95.33 per dollar on Thursday, closing at 94.90 after the Reserve Bank of India stepped in. The slide was driven by global oil prices breaching $125 a barrel and persistent foreign portfolio...
Iran's True Inflation Hits 116% Annually, Not 67%
Iran’s Central Bank reports its inflation rate is 67%/yr. WRONG. Today, using high-frequency data, I measure Iran’s inflation rate at a PUNISHING 116%/yr. I remain the only reliable source for inflation measurements in Iran. YOU WON'T FIND THIS IMPORTANT STORY IN THE MEDIA. https://t.co/W81HmL3Xvp
Euro Adoption Triggers Bulgaria's Inflation Surge, Proves Costly
Bulgaria’s inflation EXPLODED to 7.1%/yr in April from 3.9%/yr in March. As the Father of Bulgaria’s currency board, I predicted an inflation SURGE with the introduction of the euro. EURO INTRODUCTION = BAD MOVE. https://t.co/kTXEo9l5sO
Nigerian Naira Gains 2% After CBN Unveils New FX Strategy
The Central Bank of Nigeria introduced a new foreign‑exchange policy that pushed the naira 2% higher versus the U.S. dollar. The move, which includes an interest‑rate cut, has been welcomed by traders but also draws caution from analysts wary of...
ECB Hints at June Rate Hike as Iran Conflict Fuels Uncertainty
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde indicated that June could be the “right time” to raise rates, even as the Iran conflict adds geopolitical risk. The euro slipped below 1.1750, and markets are pricing a June hike while debating the...
The Macroeconomic Consequences of Undermining Central Bank Independence: Evidence From Governor Transitions
Recent research covering 132 central‑bank governor transitions across 28 economies finds that 38% of changes are politically motivated, especially in emerging markets. Politically driven appointments, particularly those with unorthodox monetary views, lead to lower short‑term interest rates, a short‑run GDP...
Dollar Set for Sharp Weekly Loss versus Yen After Japan Steps In
The dollar is on track for its steepest weekly decline against the yen since February, slipping about 1.7% as Japan reportedly intervened to buy yen when the pair hit 160.7 per dollar. Authorities may have spent up to ¥5.48 trillion (roughly...
Skip Dynamic Currency Conversion, Save on Every Purchase
Europe’s most expensive button 👆 It’s called Dynamic Currency Conversion, and pressing USD costs you way more. ❌ A worse exchange rate ❌ A ~3% markup fee The fix: ✅ Pay in local currency abroad ✅ Use a card with no foreign transaction fees Save this for...
Argentina's Money Supply Shrinks as Global Credit Bloats
Argentina is the only country where money supply is contracting at a double-digit rate. Meanwhile, the rest of the world continues to expand credit with little to no monetary discipline. None of us own enough hard assets. https://t.co/7n3N1S2a1W https://t.co/mVU3eZcLRN
Iran’s Currency Crisis Deepens as War Batters Economy
Iran’s rial slumped to a record 1.81 million per U.S. dollar before a brief rebound, reflecting a 15% drop in days amid intensified war, air strikes and a U.S. naval blockade. The conflict has crippled oil exports, driving annual inflation to...
Live: Japan's FX Intervention Misread, US Leads Standoff
I'm doing a livestream tomorrow morning at 9 am to discuss Japan's latest FX intervention, which is as "lost in translation" as always. I'll also give an update on the US blockade and where we now stand. The US is...
Jackson Hole Speech Marks Most Hawkish Remarks Yet
His speech at Jackson Hole that year is the most hawkish speech in the entire corpus IIRC
Australian and Japanese Markets Rise as Tokyo Intervenes in Yen Amid Iran Tensions
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 jumped 0.74% to 8,729.80 and Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.38% to 59,513.12 on Friday, buoyed by a reported yen‑intervention by Tokyo. The moves came despite heightened geopolitical risk from escalating tensions with Iran.
April's Weaker Dollar Signals Shift to Risk‑Off
Biggest shift in market dynamics in April? Weaker US Dollar. Stronger $USD in February and March provided an important signal of rising risks, and a weaker $USD in April suggests risk-off vibes from the currency markets. At...
Fedlock's Hawkishness Score Climbs Sharply with Recent Statements
As discussed below, Fedlock's aggregate hawkishness score continues to rise noticeably, with the latest communication from Kashkari, Powell, and Hammack all registering high relative to their recent comms https://t.co/b7k8lndodx
Miran’s Exit Leaves Fed with No Remaining Doves
Interesting chart, although there is some hard-to-quantify nuance regarding how dovish/hawkish each individual member truly is.
Japan's FX Trade Slashes Net Debt, Cuts Gross Debt
Alternative framing for Japan's intervention Japan sold $35 billion of dollars bought at around 80 yen the dollar for close to 160 yen, booking a massive profit that reduced Japan's net public debt -- and in the process brough Japan high...
Looser Labour Market Means Milder Inflation Shock, Smaller Policy Response
Yesterday the BoE put out some analysis, basically showing the difference between now and 2022. Because the labour market is not so tight anymore, the shock to inflation should be much less persistent - justifying a smaller monetary response (if...
Foreign Central Banks Stopped US Treasury Purchases; Domestic Funding Rises
Multiple things are simultaneously true: 1) Foreign public sector (central banks) are not buying US treasuries for over a decade, led by China. 2) Foreign private sector is still buying treasuries. 3) Foreign buying is not keeping up with issuance, so more is...