Today's Currencies Pulse
Rupee flat on hopes West Asia truce will hold
The Indian rupee held steady as markets priced in hopes that a West Asia truce would hold, hovering near ₹95.78 per dollar after slipping 8 paise in early trade. Traders kept a close eye on geopolitical developments while the currency remained largely unchanged.
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Powell Out
The Financial Times has assembled a dedicated Monetary Policy Radar team to track global central‑bank actions and forecast rate moves. Chris Giles, the veteran economics commentator, leads the editorial side after 19 years at the FT. Andrew Whiffin, a CFA‑journalist...
FOMC Unity Masks Dissent; Expect USD Short on Hawkish Fed
Macro: FOMC consensus exceeds visible dissent. Key factor: uncertainty amplified votes. Risk: markets may overreact to perceived division. Trade: buy USD short on Fed's hawkish tilt. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD,CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Plumbing Notes: The Warsh Prelude
The Federal Reserve is maintaining a steady flow of roughly $25 billion per month into the interbank market, aiming for a state of reserve stasis where net liquidity additions are neutral. This front‑loading has driven swap spreads and cross‑currency bases to...
Azerbaijan Central Bank Keeps USD/Manat Fixed at 1.7 Manat
The Central Bank of Azerbaijan announced on May 4 that the official exchange rate for the U.S. dollar remained at 1.7 manat. The rates for the euro, Turkish lira and Russian ruble were also published, showing no deviation from the...
Geopolitical Tensions and Tariffs Fuel Mixed Market Outlook
Markets are mixed this morning and here's why it matters 👇 Iran allegedly shot at US ships overnight. US denies damage but the message is clear, tensions are escalating, not cooling. Oil popped, then faded. Dow down, NASDAQ up, S&P flat. Add...
SOFR Shows Near‑Zero Rate Cuts as Hidden Stimulus Fuels Growth
As of today, SOFR curve is pricing in ~ 8 bps of cuts in 2027 and ~2 bps of cuts in 2028. Cuts have finally been priced out as there is very little basis for them. Policymakers are using more...
Nigeria's Dollar GDP Jumps 22% to $307 Bn in 2025 on Strong Output and Firmer Naira
Nigeria’s dollar‑denominated GDP expanded 22% in 2025 to roughly $307 bn, propelled by an 18.4% rise in nominal output and a 3% appreciation of the naira. The surge places the country above the $300 bn threshold and makes it the biggest contributor...
Bank of Ghana’s $1.25 Bn Loss Triggers Parliamentary Fight Over Policy Solvency and Gold Gains
The Bank of Ghana posted an audited loss of GH¢15.6 bn (about $1.25 bn) for 2025, a figure that the opposition’s minority caucus says masks a far larger ‘policy insolvency’. The ruling majority rebuts, insisting the accounts are accurate and that the...
Decisions Taken by the Governing Council of the ECB (in Addition to Decisions Setting Interest Rates)
On 4 May 2026 the European Central Bank Governing Council released its 2025 Annual Report and enacted a suite of policy updates. It simplified excess‑reserve remuneration by aligning it with the deposit‑facility rate effective 17 June 2026, and approved a comprehensive payments strategy to...
Debunked Strike, Real War Risk: Dollar Rallies on Panic Hedge as Hormuz Tensions Rise
A false headline claiming Iranian missiles struck a U.S. Navy ship near the Strait of Hormuz sent Brent crude to about $110 per barrel and triggered a rapid rush into the dollar as a panic hedge. U.S. Central Command quickly...
Yen Surges to the High 155-Range Against Dollar in Thin Holiday Trading
The Japanese yen surged to the high‑155 per‑dollar range on Monday, its strongest level since the previous Friday. The rally followed a period where the currency was trading near ¥157.20 to the dollar. The move unfolded during a thin holiday‑trading...
ECB Inflation Survey Points to Sharp Surge in Prices
The European Central Bank’s Survey of Professional Forecasters shows inflation expectations jumping to 2.7% in 2024, up from 1.8% previously, driven by higher energy prices. Growth forecasts were trimmed to 1% for 2026. Forecasters anticipate inflation easing to 2.1% in...
Luis De Guindos: Presentation of the ECB Annual Report 2025 to the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the...
Luis de Guindos, the ECB Vice‑President, presented the 2025 Annual Report to the European Parliament, noting his mandate ends later this month. The report shows euro‑area GDP grew 1.4% while inflation averaged 2.1%, prompting a 100‑basis‑point cut to the deposit‑facility rate,...
Auction Theory Pinpoints Bottom Amid Fake News Crash
🚨 Market just crashed 300 points in MINUTES on fake Iran news. While everyone was getting stopped out, auction theory printed the bottom to the TICK. 🎯 The rules never change: 🟢 Close at high = buyers won the auction 🔴 Close...
US Dollar Credit Supply: Supply Continues at Strong Levels
U.S. corporate dollar bond issuance stayed robust in April, reaching $90.5 bn, roughly double the $47 bn issued a year earlier but down from March’s record $178 bn. The technology, media and telecom (TMT) segment dominated, contributing $53.9 bn or about 60% of the...
UAE Says It Is Discussing Currency Swap Line with US
The United Arab Emirates is in talks with the United States to establish a central‑bank currency swap line, a facility currently reserved for an elite group of five major economies. Trade Minister Thani Al Zeyoudi emphasized that the arrangement would support...
Rupee Sinks to Fresh Closing Low of 95.08 Against USD on NDF Maturities, Firm Crude
The Indian rupee fell to a fresh closing low of 95.0875 per U.S. dollar, its weakest on record, as maturing non‑deliverable forward (NDF) contracts and rising oil prices weighed on the currency. The decline of 0.18% came amid heightened dollar...
RBI Mulls Dollar Deposit Scheme and Tax Cut to Stem Rupee Slide
The Reserve Bank of India is studying two measures – a revived dollar‑deposit program and the removal of a 5% withholding tax on foreign investors in Indian government bonds – to attract dollar inflows and shore up reserves as the...
Turkey’s April Inflation Rises More than Expected
Turkey’s consumer price index jumped 4.1% month‑on‑month in April, pushing annual inflation to 32.4%, well above the Central Bank’s 16% target. The surge was led by higher food, housing and transportation costs, while core CPI rose 3.5% MoM to a...
Results of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters for the Second Quarter of 2026
The European Central Bank’s second‑quarter 2026 Survey of Professional Forecasters shows headline HICP inflation expectations nudged up to 2.7% for 2026 and core inflation to 2.2% for the near term, while longer‑term rates remain at 2.0%. Real GDP growth expectations...
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US Blockade Cuts Iranian Rial 20% in Three Weeks
Since the start of the US blockade on April 13, the Iranian Rial is down 20 percent against the Dollar. We're only three weeks into the blockade and this is the most visible sign it's already meaningfully disrupting Iran's economy....
ECB's Muller: Inflation to Accelerate in the Coming Months
ECB Governing Council member Madis Muller warned that inflation could accelerate in the coming months, citing the ongoing US‑Iran conflict and volatile energy prices. He said a rate hike is increasingly likely unless the war ends and Brent crude falls...
US Capital Inflows Have Doubled Since 2018 Despite Predictions
Luke has been saying this trend would end since 2018. And during that time the global capital the US has sucked into its capital markets has...doubled. https://t.co/f1wrZt6C6Q
Japan's Debt, Not FX Intervention, Drives Yen Rise
After last week's intervention, $/JPY is climbing back towards 160, which repeats the pattern we saw in 2024 and earlier this year. Intervention is just treating the symptom. Japan's mountain of high public debt is the cause. That's what needs...
What Are the Main Events for Today?
The Eurozone’s final PMI figures were released after a Labour Day delay, but analysts expect little impact on the European Central Bank’s policy outlook. In the United States, factory‑orders data is slated for release and is similarly viewed as unlikely...
ECB June Rate Hike Nearly Certain, Says Kazimir
ECB rate hike in June is ‘all but inevitable,’ Kazimir says https://t.co/3f8YLT6jId via @Dan_Hornak @mseputyte https://t.co/YDTun4Qfrh
Ceasefire Risk Drives Oil Surge, Boosts Dollar
US-Iran Ceasefire at Risk: Oil Pulls Rates Higher: The US dollar recovered in late turnover ahead of the weekend and has extended its recovery today in holiday-thin trading. Japan, China, and UK markets are closed. The ceasefire in the US-Iran...
FX Option Expiries for 4 May 10am New York Cut
The May 4, 2026 10 a.m. New York FX option expiries focus on EUR/USD between 1.1700‑1.1750 and AUD/USD at 0.7200. Technical analysis shows the EUR/USD floor near the 200‑day moving average of 1.1675 and upside capped around 1.1800, limiting the expiries' directional power. Market...
Why Strong NFP May Not Save the Dollar This Week
The US dollar entered the week on a soft footing, and even a robust April non‑farm payroll (NFP) report may not revive its strength. Markets are pricing a scenario where solid jobs data fuels risk‑on sentiment, pushing capital into equities...
Latest Yen Intervention Starting to Develop a Bit of a Pattern
The Japanese Ministry of Finance directed the BOJ to intervene as USD/JPY rose above 157, prompting sharp selling that pulled the pair back toward 155.5‑70. Despite an estimated $35 billion already spent on recent interventions, the yen remains under pressure, with...
USD/JPY Quick Dump
Tokyo intervened in the foreign‑exchange market with roughly $35 billion to curb a sharp yen decline. Officials warned that further action could follow if speculative pressure continues. The intervention was coordinated with U.S. authorities, underscoring bilateral vigilance on currency stability. Market...
The Sychronised Collapse in Australian Economic Confidence
Roy Morgan economists Gary Morgan, Michele Levine and Julian McCrann urged the Reserve Bank of Australia to pause its interest‑rate tightening, warning that the economy is already fragile and may be slipping into recession. They highlighted a synchronized plunge in...
U.S. Dollar's 10% Slide Fuels Higher Everyday Costs for Americans
The U.S. dollar has slipped about 10% against major currencies since early 2025, driving up import‑linked prices for groceries, travel and other everyday items. Economists and business leaders warn the “hidden tax” could tighten personal budgets and alter inflation dynamics.
RBI Governor Warns of Global Debt Risks as India’s Economy Shows Resilience
Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra told the 25th FIMMDA‑PDAI conference that India’s macro fundamentals remain strong while soaring sovereign debt in the US and Europe poses systemic risks. He outlined a roadmap for deeper liquidity, broader participation and...
Ringgit Projected to Trade in Tight RM3.96‑RM3.98 Band Against the Dollar Next Week
Bank Muamalat Malaysia's chief economist Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid forecast the ringgit will hover between RM3.96 and RM3.98 per US dollar next week, citing upcoming US non‑farm payrolls as the main driver. The outlook comes as the currency shows mixed...
Quantifying the Impact of the Iran War on US Inflation
The authors combine a calibrated DSGE model of the global oil market with a monthly structural VAR to estimate how the 2026 Iran war’s oil‑supply shock could affect U.S. inflation. A 15 % shortfall lasting one quarter pushes WTI crude to...
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De-Dollarization: What Is It, and Is It Happening?
De‑dollarization describes the gradual reduction of the U.S. dollar’s dominance as the world’s primary reserve currency. The IMF reports the dollar’s share of allocated reserves fell to about 57% in Q4 2025, down from over 70% in 2001. China’s renminbi, gold...
Yen Spike Stalls Global Markets as Dollar Dips 1% Amid Suspected Japanese Intervention
The yen jumped sharply after Japanese authorities were believed to have intervened, sending the dollar down as much as 1% before it steadied at 156.54 per yen. The move froze equity markets worldwide, with tech earnings providing the only support...
ICE Cotton Futures Rise 3.8% on Weak Dollar and Surge in U.S. Export Orders
ICE cotton futures surged 3.00 cents per pound (3.79%) on Tuesday, driven by a weaker U.S. dollar and a 36% rise in net upland cotton export sales. The July 2026 contract closed at 82.20 cents per pound, the highest level...
Kenya's Inflation Misses Target as Money Supply Surges
Kenya’s inflation comes in at 5.6%/yr in April. That’s ABOVE its 5%/yr target. Kenya’s money supply (M3) grows at 11.7%/yr, ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 10.7%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its inflation target of 5%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A...
Venezuela's Hyperinflation Mirrors Its 632% Money Supply Surge
Today, Venezuela’s inflation is 490.3%/yr. That’s the world’s highest. Venezuela’s money supply (M3) is growing at 632.2%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/mFU1E5Z9TN
European Stocks Slip 0.8% as Rate‑Sensitive Sectors Lead Sell‑Off
European equity markets opened lower as investors grew wary of sticky inflation, lingering growth concerns and the prospect of prolonged higher rates. The STOXX Europe 600 fell 0.8%, the FTSE 100 slipped 0.5%, and the DAX 40 dropped 0.9%, marking...
ECB Holds Rates Steady as Energy-Driven Inflation Rises to 3%
The European Central Bank kept its deposit facility at 2.0%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15% and the marginal lending rate at 2.40% after its April 30 meeting. Inflation in the eurozone jumped to 3% in April, up from 2.6%...
Weakening Peso
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas lifted its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4.5% as oil prices surged past $120 per barrel amid a renewed Hormuz blockade. The central bank aims to curb second‑round inflation and stabilize a peso...
Iran Has Collected a ‘Pittance’ of Less than $1.3 Million in Hormuz Tolls, Bessent Says, as Currency Dives to Fresh...
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Iran has collected less than $1.3 million in tolls for ships passing the Strait of Hormuz, a fraction of its pre‑war daily oil earnings. At the same time, Iran’s rial slid to a fresh record...
EUR/USD Rally Stalls at Key Resistance, Future Direction Uncertain
Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Rally Fades at Major Resistance—Next Move Critical https://t.co/oXCaH1uocd $EURUSD Weekly Chart https://t.co/nwslbsvyTS
AI Stress‑tested Strategy Still Profitable Despite Realistic Costs
🛑Stop paper trading for a week and calling it "research." I used Claude AI to run a 250-day stress test on my strategy, accounting for: ✅ Slippage ✅ Missed fills ✅ Choppy markets ✅ Commissions and it still made money see how...
Brazil Central Bank Bars Stablecoins for Cross‑Border Payments, Effective Oct. 1
Brazil's central bank issued Resolution No. 561, banning electronic foreign‑exchange providers from settling cross‑border remittances with stablecoins, Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies. The rule, published April 30 and effective Oct. 1, targets fintechs such as Wise, Nomad and Braza Bank while leaving crypto trading...