Know What's Happening in Currencies
Know What's Happening in Currencies
ECB faces binary decision on rate hike or hold at upcoming meeting
ECB President Olaf Sleijpen said the next Governing Council meeting will focus on whether to raise interest rates further or keep them unchanged, with the discussion slated for Frankfurt in a few weeks as the board reviews fresh inflation data.
On March 20 2026 the Central Bank of Russia trimmed its benchmark rate by 50 basis points to 15.0%, the seventh reduction since the October 2024 peak of 21%. The cumulative easing amounts to six percentage points, the deepest policy shift in over two years. Meanwhile consumer‑price inflation has fallen from 10.3% in March 2025 to 5.9% last month, narrowing the gap between price growth and monetary tightening. The move positions the rate at its lowest level since December 2023.
If we are now about to enter a Central Bank rate rising period, it's worth considering we are in a very different place to the last rate rising period. Back a few years ago interest rates were artificially low and...
Fed governor Chris Waller to CNBC's Steve Liesman: I was ready to dissent for a rate cut after the February jobs report came out. But the inflation picture is looking worse and has become more of a concern because the Strait...
The U.S. dollar posted mixed moves, gaining against the yen and won while slipping versus the euro, sterling and Canadian dollar. U.S. Treasury yields rose five basis points, outpacing modest increases in Japan, Spain, Switzerland and Germany, while all four...
ING’s foreign‑exchange strategists remain bullish on the euro, forecasting EUR/USD could climb to 1.20 by year‑end despite heightened geopolitical risk, rising oil prices and a temporary US inflation spike. They argue the Federal Reserve will treat the oil‑driven price bump...
$USD was bought aggressively on a hawkish read of Powell's press conference on Wed and was sold harder yesterday in what seems to be an overreaction to the ECB and BOE. It has come back bid. Who wants...
Feeling listless and irritable as I wait for Italy (lhs) to call for the ECB to activate its TPI tool because markets are being anti-Italian and France (rhs) to call for joint EU debt issuance on account of "force majeure"...
ECB policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau warned that any future rate adjustments will be decided on a meeting‑by‑meeting basis, with a bias toward hikes rather than cuts. He emphasized the central bank’s vigilance and readiness to act amid energy market...
This week we unpack just how trapped central banks are, especially single mandate central banks who are forced to hike into this shock. Shit is not great yo
Fed funds have flipped to tiny pricing for hikes. Completely unforeseeable and insane move from the perspective of where we were a few months ago. We have gone from captured Fed will cut 3 times to oil shock opens door for...
European central banks delivered a hawkish surprise, pushing the euro and pound higher while the dollar weakened. The ECB signaled a possible April rate hike, adding 15 basis points to market expectations, and the Bank of England voted unanimously to...
The reason the Dollar isn't stronger is because markets price a much more hawkish policy shift by central banks in the G10 compared to the Fed. That's moving rate differentials against the Dollar and tempering what otherwise would be an...
PBOC set the $USD fix today at its lowest level since April 2023. Since the war began, $CNY is the fourth best EM currency, trailing HKD and two high yielders in Latam. YTD, CNY it has only been bested by...
The Bank of Canada kept its overnight rate at 2.25% on March 18, marking a third consecutive hold. Inflation slowed to 1.8% in February, still under the 2% target, while the labour market remains weak. The decision reflects caution amid...
Europe/UK back at it, forcing their rate hikes on us. April hike odds 12%... more than just noise
The swaps mkt discounted slightly more than BOE 3 hikes this year. Surely that is exaggerated. The mkt has 70 bp of ECB hikes discounted. Despite the hawks trying to outflank Lagarde's moderate tone, that too seems a...
European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel warned that the ECB could be forced to raise interest rates as early as April if inflationary pressures intensify, particularly due to the ongoing Iran war. He indicated that a deteriorating medium‑term...
Makhlouf says an April ECB hike is possible if data signal there’s a need https://t.co/zEOl2Ko48A via @flacqua @jenniduggan @livfletcher_ https://t.co/IHW9dxYRHQ
Subtle but important point. The ECB's baseline incorporates nearly two rate hikes. The adverse and severe scenarios use the same assumptions, and thus may require more than two hikes to bring inflation back to target. Only makes things sligthly less...
Japan’s February CPI is expected to slow further thanks to an energy subsidy, but core‑core inflation will stay well above the 2% target, keeping the Bank of Japan cautious about rate hikes. The central bank is likely to postpone an...
JPM woke up this Friday morning and chose violence ... looking for back-to-back hikes from both the ECB and BOE.
Central‑bank digital currency (CBDC) could remain neutral for banks if the central bank recycles CBDC balances back to them at rates equal to deposit‑funding costs, preserving credit creation and profit margins. Deposits, however, are hybrid instruments that provide money‑like services...
Simon White joins MacroVoices to argue that ongoing geopolitical conflicts are adding a new layer to inflationary pressures, creating a "three‑act" inflation scenario. He draws parallels between today’s monetary stimulus and the 1970s oil shocks, suggesting that war‑driven commodity spikes...
The Bank of Japan and the U.S. Federal Reserve both kept policy rates steady, prompting the yen to climb roughly 0.4% against the dollar and leaving the greenback largely flat. The moves come amid heightened oil‑price volatility from the Middle‑East...
Bank of Canada won’t be cutting rates anytime soon. Inflation is rising because of the war 🇮🇷
ECB's Lagarde is asked to be specific on inflation in a bad case scenario. Instead of Powell's "I dunno", Lagarde says: be patient, I'll expand. Longer speech on "particularly attentive to..." -- uses the magic word "second round effect" --...
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to keep the Bank Rate at 3.75%. The decision comes as inflation remains above the 2% target, pressured by higher energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty. By holding rates steady, the MPC...
🚨Every central bank just warned us about inflation Here's what happened this week: ↳ Fed still stuck on easing ↳ ECB and BOE market pricing in 2-3 rate HIKES in 2026 ↳ BOJ keeping its tightening bias intact ↳ SNB hinting at negative rates to...
Big plot twist for the ECB; yes their forecasts might be out of date, but the HICP fcts are reasonably punchy for 2026 ... smart move; the big question though is; why not tighten? They see materially higher inflation and...
Peter Zeihan argues the U.S. dollar is set for a multi‑decade rise, driven by unrivaled naval power, favorable demographics, abundant food and energy resources, and a looming manufacturing expansion. In the near term, however, policy choices—tight immigration, high tariffs, regulatory...
Dollar pressing range highs just below round 100. Break higher and liquidity tightens. Reject and risk can breathe a bit. $DXY https://t.co/ZvkycsmahB
GUESS WHAT'S NEW TODAY... Yen is spiking higher as USD sells off - that is my MONEY GOES HOME™️ in full view 😭 The market bounce 'looks' like put monetization on dollar dump, BUT don't count your right tail chickens before they...
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will release its April Monetary Policy Review at 2 pm on its website, followed by an online media conference at 3 pm, marking a shift toward greater transparency for future reviews. Governor Adrian Breman will engage with...
10y UST yields (blue, RS) v. USDCNY (red, LS), since Russia invaded UKR in Feb-22. Something changed in late 2025 (stronger CNY v. USD and higher 10y UST yield, instead of lower.) https://t.co/hW48oZdc2B
ECB sources suggesting they could hike in April, but if it goes that far I think June is more likely. ECB meeting: 30 April Consumer Expectations Survey (27 March, too early) Survey of Professional Forecasters (4 May, but they’ll get hints) Corporate Telephone...
ECB officials see possibility of rate hike at April meeting https://t.co/p0GjFZzqz2 via @jrandow @Alemrome https://t.co/WN1EPwWl0Y
The U.S. Dollar: Short vs. Long Term Watch Full Video on YT ➡️ https://t.co/vgIHgyjagj #usd #useconomy #geopolitics
🇪🇺 Unfortunately for the ECB, and despite the staff best efforts to use a later-than-usual cut-off date, their baseline scenario looks instantly obsolete. Market pricing for inflation is already consistent with the adverse scenarios. The main question is about indirect effects....
The de-dollarization thesis driving gold may be well and truly dead. I'm acting defensively. I have failed - once again - to internalize a theory of mind for pathological narcissists and psychopaths.
🇪🇺 ECB's risks scenarios, including a severe shock generating a mild recession, a rise in unemployment and core inflation peaking at 4%. The latter don't include any monetary policy change as @Lagarde noted, as opposed to the staff which accounts...
its funny (to me) that the ECB obviously looked at the BoE statement today and thought "OK, lets not do anything THAT crazy". The BoE... making the ECB seem sensible
If I heard correctly, Lagarde just talked the ECB into two hikes this year with her mic drop at the end.
🇪🇺 ECB decision more balanced. The GC is "well positioned to navigate this uncertainty", not signalling any imminent move. Risk scenarios to be published at 3:45pm. Key will be "the magnitude of indirect and second-round effects of a stronger and...
#ECB leaves deposit rate at 2.00% as expected. Says war poses upside inflation risks, downside growth risks. Says to decide based on core inflation, transmission strength. Says not pre-committing to particular rate path. https://t.co/9tExdmlBDB
#Gold takes more beating as #BoE grows hawkish mkt prices TWO rate hikes in 2026 #forex
The market's implied forecasts for Fed rate forecasts through 2026 now only projects -9bps of rate cuts this year. So the market is more hawkish than the Fed's forecast - the market was more dovish than the Fed two weeks...
the $DXY still gets my vote as the most boring of charts, ironically receiving much commentary and opinion over the years... 🥱🥱🥱 https://t.co/vcUAoh6aPi
Follow our live blog for the latest news and updates on the European Central Bank's interest-rate decision https://t.co/Nc9piHPEdR via @jrandow https://t.co/nzehlM7joh
Limited Follow-Through Dollar Today After Yesterday's Surge: The US dollar rallied strongly during the Federal Reserve’s press conference yesterday as rates jumped in response to what was widely seen as a hawkish hold, especially given Chair Powell’s… https://t.co/L0b4ab2cDv https://t.co/JikD6d1Xxj
We've now reached the point where - four years ago after the invasion of Ukraine - the Brazilian Real began to rally and outperform everyone else. As we settle into a higher-for-longer equilibrium on oil, the same will now start...
