Today's Currencies Pulse
Rupee flat on hopes West Asia truce will hold
The Indian rupee held steady as markets priced in hopes that a West Asia truce would hold, hovering near ₹95.78 per dollar after slipping 8 paise in early trade. Traders kept a close eye on geopolitical developments while the currency remained largely unchanged.
GBPUSD Backs Off Into Support. Yesterday's Resistance Is Today's Support.
The GBP/USD pair surged to a high of 1.3642 before stalling near the previous day’s resistance zone of 1.3574‑1.3602. That resistance has now flipped into a key support area around 1.3574‑1.3578, reinforced by the 100‑hour moving average. Buyers have kept the price near 1.3591, but a decisive break above 1.3602 could unlock further upside, while a slip below 1.3574 may trigger a move toward the 200‑hour average at 1.3543. The next few sessions will test which side gains control.
Control Liquidity, Gain Consistency: Follow Smart Money
🔥 NO CONTROL = NO CONSISTENCY Most traders fail because they ignore liquidity. ✔️ Liquidity sweep ✔️ MSS confirmation ✔️ OB entry ✔️ Expansion 📌 This is the real game. Follow smart money… not emotions. #ForexReels #SMCTrading #ICTForex #TradingStrategy #reels
AUDUSD Runs to a New High Going Back to 2022 & Backs off.What Keeps the Buyers in Control?
The Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates by 25 basis points, marking its third consecutive hike and signaling persistent inflation concerns. The AUD/USD pair surged past its 100‑hour and 200‑hour moving averages, climbing to a session high of 0.7277 within...
Iran Peace Hopes Spark 3% Surge in Emerging‑Market Stocks, Boosting Risk Appetite
Investors pushed a benchmark of developing‑world equities up 3.1% on Wednesday as signals of a US‑Iran peace agreement revived risk appetite. The rally lifted the index’s year‑to‑date gain to nearly 22%, while currencies rallied and oil prices fell.
Euro Steadies at $1.17 as Weak US Data and Lower Yields Pressure the Dollar
The euro held near 1.1701 against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, buoyed by a dip in Treasury yields and softer U.S. labor data. Traders also factored in Middle‑East flare‑ups and mixed signals from the ECB, keeping the pair in a...
USDCAD Is Back to Unchanged on the Day. What Next From a Technical Perspective?
The USDCAD pair slipped lower amid broad dollar selling but quickly reclaimed ground, closing back above its 100‑hour moving average at 1.3600 – a psychologically important round number. The next hurdle is the 200‑hour moving average around 1.36316, which aligns...
Poonam Gupta: Inflation Targeting in India - the Past, the Present and the Future
At a NCAER event, Poonam Gupta outlined India’s inflation‑targeting framework, noting the government’s Gazette notification on March 25, 2026 that renews the 4 percent target with a ±2 percent tolerance band through March 2031. She reviewed a decade of monetary‑policy decisions under this regime, highlighting...
Argentina Must Cut Rates, Keep ARS Short-Term
Macro: Argentina needs lower rates to re-access markets; persistent inflation and no new debt constrain easing. Risk: sticky inflation delays cuts. Trade: prefer short-duration ARS exposure until clear disinflation. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
National Bank of Georgia
The National Bank of Georgia raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% on May 6, 2026, its first hike since a 50‑basis‑point increase to 11.0% in March 2022. The move is intended to anchor inflation expectations as CPI remains at...
OANDA Forecasts Risk‑On Rally Lifts Nasdaq 100, China A50 and AUD/USD in May
OANDA projects that a renewed risk‑on appetite will push the Nasdaq 100 up 22% from its March low, lift China’s A50 by roughly 7%, and sustain a bullish trend in the AUD/USD pair throughout May. The outlook rests on strong...
Powell Defended Fed Independence, yet Made Costly Mistakes
Just published: My take on Jerome Powell’s complicated legacy--one of resilience in defending Fed independence, weighed against missed opportunities to enhance effectiveness and costly errors beyond just monetary policy. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/powell-legacy-fed-defender-but-also-policy-mistakes-by-mohamed-a-el-erian-2026-05 #economy #federalreserve #markets @prosyn
NY Fed Index Hits Covid-Level Supply Chain Disruptions
🇺🇸 The NY Fed Global Supply Chain Pressure Index jumped in April to Covid-like disruption levels. https://t.co/ywfPzNS5oq https://t.co/23NKq4esGS
Forex vs CFDs: Which One Actually Fits Your Trading Style?
Forex and contracts for difference (CFDs) are the two most popular leveraged products for retail traders. Forex trades currency pairs with 24‑hour liquidity and tight spreads, while CFDs let investors speculate on a wide range of assets—from indices to commodities—without...
AUD/USD Breakout: Strength Rises, Resistance Limits Upside
Quick video update on the $AUDUSD levels with this breakout. AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Aussie Strength Builds but Resistance Could Cap Upside https://t.co/6bp77tR4bf On YouTube: https://t.co/xX81PHGyYq
Dollar Poised to Weaken Once War Ends
Regardless of whether the latest headlines are true or not, they're a natural experiment for how the Dollar will trade when the war ends. The Dollar is back down to near its pre-war lows against EM. As soon as war...
Research: UK Official Holdings of International Reserves: April 2026
Britain’s monthly statistical release shows that official international reserves reached £210 bn (approximately $260 bn) in April 2026, up from £207 bn the month before. Gold holdings climbed to 310 t, while foreign‑currency assets slipped 2 % as the euro weakened against the dollar. IMF‑related assets...
Japan's Finance Ministry Likely Intervened in Yen Again
Japanese markets were closed overnight but looks like the Ministry of Finance may have intervened in the Japanese Yen again? Size of the move questionable. Thoughts? 👇 https://t.co/T1WsdkfFDF
Staggering EM Reserve Losses Expose Policy Failures
The scale of EM reserve losses during this shock is staggering. More than anything, that tells you about policy dysfunction in certain EMs. Turkey kept its peg to USD, so it had no choice but to intervene a ton. Pakistan...
FX Daily: Remarkable Resilience of Risk Assets
Investors are rallying risk assets after reports of progress in US‑Iran talks, prompting a sell‑off in the dollar. Oil markets remain in focus, with the U.S. Energy Information Administration expected to report a 2.4 million‑barrel draw, a figure that could trigger...
Trump Suspends
TACO Delivered a Day after Cinco De Mayo: There is one overarching fundamental development today that is driving the risk-on in the capital markets and weighing on the dollar. President Trump announced the US was suspending its new escort service...
Risk Appetite Soars as US Halts Hormuz Escort, Dollar Falls
The US has suspended the escort service in the Strait of Hormuz and risk-appetites have jump. Equities and bonds have surged, while the greenback slumps. China re-opens and set USD fix at new multiyear low. See https://t.co/swSYFvpDgy https://t.co/UUCWRyRfJ8
USD/JPY Sees a Quick Knock Down Today, Another Intervention Hit?
The USD/JPY pair fell more than 90 pips, slipping below 157.00, amid another likely intervention by Japan’s Ministry of Finance. The move came during a Japanese market holiday and follows previous attempts that lost traction as the yen weakened toward...
ECB's Gold Revaluation Gains €18.9 Bn From Price Surge
Just catching up on the ECB's 2025 accounts which were out earlier this week and see the gold revaluation account got a nice €18.9 billion uplift from the rise in the price of gold. https://t.co/DDpMzCZMqv
Sweden, Norway Hold Rates Amid Divergent Inflation Paths
Central banks in Sweden and Norway are both set to keep borrowing costs steady this week, albeit against inflation backdrops that contrast starkly between each neighbor https://t.co/iUgLSEz7vW via @ottummelas @CharlesDuxbury https://t.co/BrSbkWSLKj
History of Ideas: The Great Dollar Shortage Debate Between Friedman and Kindleberger
In the post‑World War II era the United States faced a chronic shortage of dollars, a condition that constrained European reconstruction and sparked a fifteen‑year scholarly debate. Milton Friedman blamed an overvalued fixed exchange rate that made the dollar too expensive,...
ECB Wage Tracker Stays Stable, No Second‑round Inflation Signs
🇪🇺 Latest update to the ECB's wage tracker has remained broadly stable around levels consistent with price stability, and showing no signs of second-round effects. https://t.co/lReQ51MJvs https://t.co/50YJRx98ru
NAB Calls June RBA Hike to 4.60% as Middle East Inflation Compounds Domestic Pressures
NAB has upgraded its Reserve Bank of Australia outlook, now expecting a June cash‑rate increase to 4.60%, up from the 4.35% set in May. The bank cites a dual‑inflation shock—persistent domestic capacity constraints and a second‑round price impact from the...
South Korea’s Steps to Limit Inflation Increases Paying Off — so Far
South Korea’s consumer‑price inflation rose to 2.6% YoY in April, driven mainly by a 21.9% jump in oil prices. Government interventions—food vouchers, a gasoline‑price cap and frozen utility rates—softened food and energy price pressures, keeping core inflation at 2.2% for...
Buy Australia, Malaysia FX; Avoid Other Asian Currencies
Btw, the Iran War trade is SELL the FX that loses from the war and BUY the FX that does better. In Asia, Australia and Malaysia sit more pretty on that chart. Meanwhile, India, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and South Korea...
PBOC Sets USD/ CNY Reference Rate for Today at 6.8562 (Vs. Estimate at 6.8160)
The People’s Bank of China set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8562, outpacing the Reuters estimate of 6.8160. This 40‑basis‑point appreciation is the strongest yuan level since March 24, 2023, and comes as China reopens after an extra‑long holiday. The PBOC allows...
UAE Pushes for U.S. Dollar Swap Line as Politicized Hurdles Loom
UAE Trade Minister Thani Al Zeyoudi disclosed ongoing talks with Washington to secure a U.S. dollar currency swap line, a facility currently limited to five central banks. Economists caution that domestic U.S. politics, especially a potential Trump administration, could block...
U.S. Trade Deficit Swells to $60.3 B in March as Imports Outpace Exports
The U.S. trade deficit expanded to $60.3 billion in March, a 4.4% month‑over‑month increase as imports rose faster than exports. The widening gap signals robust consumer and business demand while putting pressure on the dollar and fiscal outlook.
Libyan Banks Disburse Up to $2,000 in Cash to Citizens, Ending 13‑Year Gap
Libyan commercial banks began handing out up to $2,000 in U.S. dollars per citizen on Sunday, the first cash distribution in roughly 13 years. The Central Bank of Libya is using the move to broaden official access to foreign currency...
Indonesia Tightens Rule on FX Purchases After Rupiah Hit New Record Low
Indonesia’s central bank announced stricter rules on cash foreign‑exchange purchases, halving the limit from $50,000 to $25,000. The move follows a sharp depreciation of the rupiah, which hit a record low of 17,443 per U.S. dollar. Bank Indonesia Governor Perry...
Over 98% of Stablecoins Are Dollar Backed. That’s Good for the U.S.—until It’s Not
Stablecoins are now overwhelmingly dollar‑denominated, with more than 98% of supply pegged to the greenback. Industry leaders such as Visa and Stripe are integrating these tokens, accelerating global use of U.S. dollars for payments and savings. Experts say this cements...
Institutional FX Trading Volumes Drop 24% in April After March Surge
Institutional foreign‑exchange trading volumes fell 24% in April 2026, reversing a record‑high March that was fueled by Iran‑war volatility. FXSpotStream, Cboe FX, EuronextFX and Deutsche Börse’s 360T all posted month‑over‑month declines of 18‑29%, raising concerns about liquidity and risk appetite...
Dollar Softens as Middle East Ceasefire Holds
The U.S. dollar slipped modestly on Tuesday as markets absorbed a tentative cease‑fire between the United States and Iran, easing geopolitical risk. The dollar index fell 0.03% to 98.44, while the euro and sterling edged higher. The Japanese yen stayed...
Patience Beats Early Entries: Wait for Real Moves
You’re not losing because of the market… You’re losing because you enter too early. Inducement traps you. Liquidity pays the patient. 👉 Wait for the real move. #ForexReels #ICTTrading #SmartMoneyConcept #ForexTips #reels
Eurodollar Crisis Drives Bitcoin Toward $1 Million
I sat down with Nik Bhatia, ex-Treasury bond trader, USC professor, and author of Layered Money and The Bitcoin Age. While Bloomberg's Mike McGlone is calling Bitcoin to $10,000, @timevalueofbtc says $1 million is coming sooner than anyone thinks. "The US built...
ASEAN+3 Finance Ministers Commit Coordinated Action on Market Volatility and Middle East Risks
Finance ministers and central bank governors from the ten ASEAN members, China, Japan and South Korea issued a joint statement in Samarkand, pledging coordinated policy responses to rising market volatility and the fallout from the Middle East conflict. The bloc...
QRA's Pause Fuels Asset Rallies, Inflates Debt
The last time the QRA mattered we pivoted from short to long when Janet decided to stop increasing coupon issuance. Every QRA since has left issuance unchanged. Tomorrow will be no different. It's suppressed bond yields from going...
US Halts Naval Escort Project Amid Pakistan
$USD softens POTUS pauses Project Freedom naval escort initiative--said to be at the request of Pakistan and "other countries". US blockade remains in place. June WTI comes off (~1.5%).
Indian Rupee Hits Record Low 95.33 as Oil Prices Surge Amid US‑Iran Stalemate
The Indian rupee slid to a historic low of 95.33 per dollar on Thursday, driven by soaring oil prices and hawkish Fed signals as the U.S.-Iran stalemate drags on. The drop also pushed Indian government bond yields higher, echoing stress...
Villeroy Says ECB Lacks Data for Rate Hike
ECB doesn’t see enough yet to warrant a rate hike, says Villeroy (who won’t be in office anymore when the ECN next sets rates) https://t.co/jwn0TZ30hT via @WHorobin https://t.co/bqeIXgSyEL
USD/CAD Rebounds, Testing Downtrend Resistance
Canadian Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD/CAD Rebound Tests Downtrend Resistance https://t.co/RGjsKfthss $USDCAD Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/ZJTDP039St
Riksbank Likely to Hold but Hawkish Risks Are Growing
The Swedish Riksbank is expected to leave its policy rate unchanged at 1.75% during the May 7 meeting, but analysts see a growing hawkish tilt as inflation risks rise. March’s CPIF inflation eased to 1.6% thanks to a sharp drop in...
Eurodollar Market Independent of Dollar
Disagree here obviously -- The modern eurodollar market developed independently of dollar pegging; the UK is the market's hub and the pound obviously isn't pegged to the dollar ... 1/2
AUD/USD Near Key Resistance, Inflection Risk Rising
Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Bulls Eye Major Resistance- Inflection Risk Builds https://t.co/idLSndsSs8 $AUDUSD Weekly Chart https://t.co/8OyUNxFYAT
ECB May Hike in June,
🇪🇺 MNI sources: ECB set to hike in June, then keep options open 🇫🇷 France fighting back: *ECB'S VILLEROY: DON'T YET SEE SUFFICIENT SIGNS FOR RATE HIKE ✊
Dollar Remains Unrivaled; Alternatives Lack Appeal
My take on @soarfinancial on the 'de-dollarization' narratives: "The US dollar just DOMINATES EVERYTHING in the financial sphere. There just aren't any alternatives out there that are very attractive." LET'S FACE IT: THE USD IS THE BEST DIRTY SHIRT AROUND. https://t.co/Rtj6bTsKBc